craig

So that pretty much should wrap it up, eh? Rodriquez and Olivo slot, Hambric the extra bullet. heh heh, it would still be fun if Avitia would sign; slot plus college tuition is still a pretty good package, and being in the Cubs system with his brother might be fun.

I’d expect signings shortly (as early as tomorrow from AZ). And the $200k player and another $125k HS should be signing this week. I hope that doesn’t come off too douchey; it’s just all I can say right now. Edit: “And” Thanks, Greg, that's cool. Again, that was such an excellent interview, I appreciate how you let him go so he could take as long to explain things as he wanted. One curiosity to me was that he referred to "bonus pool" a couple of times, and at least once referenced "less than 7 million". He never really alluded to the 5% overage. I assume within the scouting world, that they probably don't differentiate between the formal bonus pool and the "bonus-pool-plus-5%", since the latter is actually the spendable; so presumably they just use bonus pool to refer to the latter? Still, when he did refer to the pool, the specified less than $7M, which is true of the literal bonus pool, but is NOT true of the "bonus-pool-plus-5%". Scouting-wise, I thought it interesting 1. that they seemed to be targeting Triantos all alone 2. The reference to Gray as a "deluxe" athlete. 3. How adamant he was about the quality of Wicks' slider and his ability to spin the ball. 4. The passing reference to maybe adding a 4th pitch to Wicks' repertoire.

It is kinda weird that he thought carrying one single $80-100K bullet into Day 3 would put him in position to get a guy he evaluated as a 3rd-round guy. Thinking one $200K offer could get some HS guy who Kantro scouted as being a 3rd-round or even 2nd-round level talent. He says that's "coming to fruition right now". Will be interesting to see who gets the $200K bullet.

Yes, terrific interview. Really helpful to hear his account of the draft. The conclusion that Kantro was only targeting to carry $100K over for one 3rd day overslot guy is interesting. And basically allows for allocating $2M for Triantos.

We'll just wait and see. 1. The way Kantro raved up his hitting, you'd think Kantro will pay whatever it takes. 2. On the other hand, Kantro talked about how his Day-2 drafting had been strategized to leave a bunch for Day 3 overslot signings. So at least as of Tuesday or Wednesday, Kantro certainly believed that there would be a healthy chunk available. Who knows?

That leaves ~$900K to cover overslots on both Triantos and the Day 3 picks. I'd originally guessed Triantos would go ~$300K over, but who knows?

Both of those subslotted more than I had projected. My current hypothetical guesses: -Triantos $300 over, - Spence $200 under, and Matt $130 under. Using those hypotheticals, that would leave the Cubs with ~$573K for 3rd-day picks. So obviously they aren't going to be able to offer Ziehl or Banks $1M or anything like that. But there is space to be signing four guys to $250K deals, or to offer Ziehl or Banks a $375 (sign one) while offering $250's to Hambley and Avitia or Olivo (sign two), for example?

Fascinated to see how much over Triantos will get. Between overage and senior sub-slot deals, they'd made $719 with picks 5, 7, 9, and 10 left to be reported. Just guessing, I'd assume those picks will add >$350K more. If anything, I'd guess that composite might under-guess how much Katro might have under-slotted those four guys. Using that made-up hypothetical, that sums to ≥ $1076 in discretionary. Of that, Gray got $273, so that could put them at ~$800. I'll hypothesize maybe $300 for Triantos? Actual deal $1.5-$1.6 versus slot $1.28? Then leave ≥$500K for 3rd-day guys?

Did you guys ever get any scouting reports on Avitia or Olivo? If Kanto senior-signed Day 2 to save a bunch for Day 3 guys; and if 13 signed for slot; and *if* 11 and 12 really don't want to sign, are guys 17-18-19-20 worth $100-200K overslot each? I admit I'm still not convinced that Ziehl might not reconsider.

That makes me want to root for Riley Martin even more! Chemistry major, conference all-academic, 2K/inning in D2, would be super fun if the $1K guy pitched his way into the major leagues! I love the human-interest stories.

https://theathletic.com/2710322/2021/07 ... in-heaven/ For pay, but nice article.

https://theathletic.com/2710322/2021/07/16/what-the-cubs-are-getting-in-jordan-wicks-and-their-2021-mlb-draft-class-its-a-match-made-in-heaven/ For pay, but nice article. First news I've heart on Hambley signing. So, Hambley and Rodriquez would be two of those "sign at least three". Olivo, Avitia, and Cunningham are the other three HS picks. I don't expect a change, but I'd not be stunned if Ziehl ended up changing his mind. But who knows.

Nice! That was quick.

Thanks for Chavers note. Nice. Question: How does the 180-player limit work? 1. Does it include guys who are injured? 2. And does it include guys who are signed but who aren't actually playing in box-score games? In other words, if Gray signs but isn't going to pitch this summer anyway, does he still count against the 180? Or, if he both signs and works out on the backfields, or in the pitch-lab, but does NOT actually pitch in a box-score game, does he still count? In view of drafting Banks at #12 only to have him announce within hours that he's not signing, I'm kinda wondering whether the 180-man limit in any way precludes the Cubs from even wanting to sign all 20 picks? Is there just not even room to sign all those Day 3 picks, so they didn't actually want to sign him anyway? Or did they kinda screw up, and think he might be signable when they probably coulda/shoulda known better?

6 of the 7 HS picks today by the Cubs only turned 18 at the end of April or later. A lot of young guys. Gray is also a young 18. Lots changed, with Katrowitz, 20 rounds instead of 40, and no Eugene. In past, they usually signed all or almost all of their top-20 picks; but they also never drafted 7 HS'ers in the 11-20 window. Will be curious to see how many of the 3rd-day HS guys they're able to sign; how many of them as $125K guys; and how many are above $125K guys. With all the pitch-lab stuff, I'd love to have a shot to see the system work with the HS pitchers.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-2021-draft-day-2-coverage Jordan Bastain article. I love it, because included for each of yesterday's picks are comments from Kantrovicz. -Kantrovicz is hyperbolic gushy about everybody, so I'm not sure how to filter or to differentiate somebody he's seeing as a $10K senior sign, from somebody they really love. -Still, I love hearing what they think they saw and why they valued the guys they did. My general view is that decision-maker people aren't dumb. So, I always love to hear some of the reasoning behind choices they make, most especially in the cases where those decisions may seem unexpected. Why did they do that? etc. Watkins:

toonster, thanks for notes on Triantos. I know at least one of the scouting reports I saw thought he might be 2B-capable. I'm not scout enough to know either way. But I admit I do recall assumptions that guys would have to move, who never did. Baez was perceived as a stocky guy who'd have to move off of SS; only that wasn't true. My understanding is the same was thought for Addison Russell, who ended up being one of the best defensive SS's I've ever seen. I'm not in the least suggestion Triantos will ever play SS; just that it's sometimes hard to tell what a guy might be able to do, and perhaps he'll be fine at 2B or 3B. I almost wonder if the Cubs don't assume as much? If they perceived Triantos as limited to 3B/LF, would they have spent a 2nd round pick perhaps with superslot cash for him? More likely to want him a lot *if* they hypothetically thought that 2B was within his scope. Each of us likes picks for whatever reasons. But I admit I don't really have "favorite" for Opitz, for example, who is purely a an organizational roster-filler. We are all prospects and minor-league watchers, but I can't get very fired up about a guy whose upside is to catch for our AA team. Or for Spence as contact-hitting utility guy. The "favorites" for me would certainly be the guys I perceive as having the best chances to become major leaguers who I might like having pitch or hit. So yeah, I'm pretty much focused on the first three picks who have the big-league possibilities and have the chance to be good. I like Spence; he might perhaps hit enough to be a capable-hitting contact-hitter 2b or utility guy. I like Chavers and think he's got a chance to be a good-hitting platoon guy. I kinda like Watkins, because any lefty with his existing velocity and breaking ball has a shot to become a valuable relief guy; if the pitch lab helped him add some velocity, and he's already got a good breaking pitch, why couldn't he be a good major-leaguer? And I admit I'm curious about Riley Martin; if pitch-lab added some velocity, who knows what he might become? To be K'ing 2 guys per inning even in D2 isn't easy, so I'm curious to see whether given some time in the system if he might not have big-league possibilities.

Franklin hit .263 and .274 BA in his two sample-size non-Covid seasons. Over 1/3 of his AB's this season were K's. Huge red flags for me. Guys who are super-K even against college pitching, hard to imagine making enough contact to be useful in the majors. Mark me as a huge doubter. One of the reports also noted that he's a down-ball guy, which would suggest he might get exposed even worse by big-league pitchers. Yet oddly many of the scouting media still had him as a top 70 prospect despite all that. I don't get it, actually. I assume those guys are smart and logical, so must see some remediation possible? I admit I'd not blow much if any superslot on a guy who K's >1/3 of his AB even versus college pitchers, though.

toonster or anybody else who might know, (I thought of you as a Virginia expert!), do you know if Triantos's Fairfax school was in the biggest-school level in Virginia? Or would a Fairfax high school with 2-3000 students be playing at a second level, even in the playoffs? I'm wondering whether his season stats and stuff are partly built on having a lot of smaller weaker schools on his schedule? Or if even in the state playoffs, he still wasn't facing the best and fastest pitching? Or was he probably facing pretty good competition for most of his game, and if not always in the regular season, at least yes in the playoffs? I saw an article after the state championship game, in which he hit a HR and was the winning pitcher 2-1, that the opposing coach said he was the best player in Virginia. So I'm trying to process whether that's a 2nd-tier coach who hasn't seen the best? Or whether that's a coach from a top-level school who's seen plenty of Virginia's best kids over the years, but still sees Triantos as being as good as Virginia produces? If that makes sense?

He also probably knows all the best spots for stone skippin' and muddin'. He's an A-student Chemistry/Biology major, and was his conference's baseball student-athlete of the year. Maybe he and Breslow can hang out, and then Breslow can hire him as a coach if his pitching career washes out?

Thanks, Cal, I'd wondered about that, and how they see using him. I'd almost kinda hoped they envisioned a good-hitting outfielder who'd grow into power... Seems like a fun project for the development guys to get their hands on....

I know nothing, so have no option other than to trust scouting reports. 9HR, 3.7 ERA, mostly low-90's velocity while pitching only once a week fully rested, mediocre breaking ball, none of those seem very exciting or 1st-roundish at first glance. Yet pretty much all of the media scouting things had him as a first rounder, usually ranking him ahead of 22 and projecting him ahead of the Cubs. Kantrovitz had him top-10. So I'm willing to kinda optimistically hope that those media scouts, and the Cubs and Kantrovitz, see and project more wisely. Optimist me: 1. Pitch lab has helped guys with velocity, and with breaking pitches. The two areas where Wicks needs help. 2. Pitch lab has shown limited success in conjuring up changeups for guys who didn't already have one; and limited success in enabling command for guys who didn't have it to start with. Fortunately, those two aspects somewhat beyond the reach of pitch lab seem to be the two qualities that Wicks already has. Other optimistic thoughts: 1. Reference to deception and "invisiball" are appealing. 2. Smart guys who have command/control to begin with are often the guys most able to pitch-lab improve to even better stuff. 3. There was some favorable reference to spin rates and stuff, including on fastball. 4. There was a reference to NOT using the up-fastball much in college. Electing to apply a fastball that you already have and can already locate up in the zone might perhaps be the easiest new tool to add to a guy's attack plan?

Optimistic for Manny Rodriguez.

Alfonso Rivas 3/6 over the Iowa DH. He's doing decent. If the Cubs make any trades, it's possible he might be a guy who could get called up in August. If he can stay healthy and have a good July...

Herz/Hearn, 3 attempted SB 2 CS. Manual Rodriguez promoted up to Iowa. Hoerner didn't play. Hope he's OK.