craig

Thanks, Tom. Helpful info. Obviously wildman at this point (31 wild things in 46 innings), but we've got lots of wildmen for whom hope continues, so thanks to your input I'll add him to my hopeful-wildman inventory! If he's 96-97, that seems fine. If he's got a bundle of pitches, that's where pitch lab and development is supposed to harness those to optimize a couple of them and perhaps eventually trim that pool into ones he can kind of control. So thanks for the info! His numbers are funky. 65K/46IP/27BB/5HB, that profiles as standard good-stuff wildman. But 49H/46IP and 1.7 WHIP doesn't. The .429 BABIP is fluky and really skews WHIP etc.. I wonder what the logic is in relief versus rotation usage? With all five starters having gotten promoted, if they like Oquendo its interesting that they didn't pop him into rotation.

I wonder what Jensen was for the previous two weeks?

Interesting that Wheat is injured. back when the draft was in June, pitchers would still barely get 10 innings. Being a month later, I'd not be surprised if they don't pitch at all until next year?

Was Jensen on another pitch-lab stint before tonight? He's seemed to be kind of high-maintenance? Or, maybe he's been incorporating some adjustments, and pulling him back to pitch lab quickly after he starts to drip, maybe that's great teaching approach?

Tom, what do you know about Oquendo's stuff? Is there reason to envision big-league potential?

Agree with your thoughts, Bertz. Still, of all the tools, hitting is the rarest thing. Guys who can hit get AB's. I'm again reminded of how helpful it is to have the DH, too. *IF* you had a good, switch-hitting 4th outfielder who was actually a good hitter, he might hypothetically DH twice a week, play left once a week while the LF rests or DH's; play right once a week while the RF rests or DH's; and maybe get an extra start once in a while if the primary starter if facing a bad pitching matchup, or whatever. Obviously the key is to be a serious hitter. Seems like everybody in AA is racking up big numbers, so I admit I'm a little cautious of how sustainable any of the AA hitters will be.

Thanks for Ramirez notes, Cal, really good. Key notes to me: 1. Helpful to get Phil's comments on his defense. Sounds like he's good, even if he doesn't project as a plus big-league defensive SS. 2. Phil's note that he has "plus" power left-handed. That's really encouraging to me, since when I see a 5'9" 2B in ACL, I wonder if we're talking a Madrigal wannabe. But if he's got power, that helps a ton. (Willie Mays listed at 5'10". Joe Morgan was 5'7" with 268 home runs. Freaks, obviously, but sometimes the short-stoke guys do pretty well.). 3. Juicy Jensen's suggestion that Pedro's speed is "70". I'm guessing Juicy is a little juicy and hyperbolic on that? Seems odd that a 70-speed guy would be only a 9SB/4CS guy in ACL, and 9SB/7CS in DSL last year? But Phil had his speed as "plus" also, so that's fun. 4. Phil's sense that his RH side isn't as jazzy as LH is helpful. May be a prompt to watch his splits moving forward.

Nice, didn't expect that. Pitch lab guys, have fun with all these new arms!

Wow so he signed for exactly everything they had left I think they still have five dollars left. :):). Perhaps if Blatter really wants to sign, but needs to be able to tell his friends that he got overslot and got more than $125K, the extra five bucks can do that?

Not to be paranoid, but I wonder why it's taking this long. Maybe he's already signed, but he isn't an instagram or social-media guy? I have a paranoid recall of Alex Lange taking a surprisingly long time, and then finding out that it was because he failed his physical.

Tom, I agree that McGwire is a fun pick. Projectability all the way. Obviously every good-framed 24-year bust was a projectable 18-year-old once. So we can imagine anything we want when a guy is 18. But yeah, he seems like such an ideal projection guy, really fun guy for Breslow to try to work with. And like you say, his delivery in the little video seems balanced and suitable for control. Fun project. Last year, Kantro got only 5 players above the $135K threshold: Obviously Wicks, Triantos and Gray; plus Franklin and 3rd-day Hambley. This year he's added nine $200K-or-more guys. McGwire, Rujano, Noland, Frisch all in that $200-228 range, and Birdsell at $385. Will be interesting to see how many of the guys in that intermediate price-range work out.

Don't imagine either of those guys is getting signed, unless Ferris fails his physical and needs a slimmer deal than expected. Last year Kantro said his goal was to save an extra ≤$100K for a 3rd-day overslots, one "bullet" he called it, in hopes that a $200K deal get one of them to sign, kinda first-come-first-served. He signed one overslot, Hambley, for $75K, at $200K. This year he took fewer HS guys on 3rd day, and he already shot his $210 bullet on Rujano ($85K over). So I'm kinda guessing his approach may be similar to last year; that he saved one bullet not two; and that he actually drafted fewer HR guys this 3rd-day recognizing he didn't have bullets for two or more. Obviously I might be wrong. 1. With a much bigger overall budget, plus with liking Horton as a serious underslot, perhaps he figured he had enough discretionary budget so that he could shoot two "bullets" this year? 2. Or, maybe he thought that in retrospect, saving a bullet or two is really a great process, and he wished he'd somehow saved two last year, and this year totally committed to doing that? 3. Third, he mentioned that he expected to sign 18.... or 19 players. Why did he think 19 was even possible, if he knew he had only one bullet to shoot between Rujano-Wheat-Blatter? So perhaps either he has a second bullet, or else he thinks one of those guys might still settle for $125 slot? 4. Or, to spin a more unlikely scenario, maybe Kantro's already signed Mule, but at only $900K like Paciolla, rather than the $1M I've assumed. So maybe he's still got $3.1 left. So maybe he's offered the second $100K bullett to Blatter or Wheat. *If* one of them hypothetically takes is, great; Ferris will then sign for the nice round $3.0M. But perhaps as a good-will measure, Kantro has told Ferris that *if* hypothetically neither Blatter nor Wheat take that last $100K, then Kantro will just good-will add that to Ferris's deal, and make it $3.1 instead of $3.0? :):)

The Prospectus suggestion that PCA's South Bend K's look to be a league-transition anomoly seems factually incorrect. 1. He's played two months for South Bend, all of June, and now July. 2. June was 13K/59 AB. So, if there was a league-transition-anomoly month, it should have been June. 3. In July, it's 22K/65 AB. So for this month, now that he's kind of settled in and established his equilibrium, he's K'ing a little over 1/3 of his AB. 4. He's had at least 2K's per game for each of the last four games, so if anything it appears the K-rate has been increasing. 5. He's had only one game this month without a K. I don't say this to rag on PCA. But I think we may need to be reaching a new perception, that the present version of PCA is not the low-K contact-hitting guy the pre-season scouting reports described. For now, his present equilibrium is as a high-K power hitter. Guys are always trying and tweaking and trying to find their best equilibrium. I'm not suggesting he won't make some adjustments and come up with some new balance in the remaining weeks, or next season. This is what getting hundreds of AB's in the minors is for. I'm just suggesting that for now, he is what he is, and that's a high-K guy who keeps his stats afloat by mixing in some homers with the lots of K's.

Other than Ferris and Mule, all of the figures are in for the first 10 rounds. 1. With some roundoff, there is ~$1.89 available for superslot, between the 5% overage and the underslots. 2. Counting slot for Ferris and Mule, there appears to be just under $4.1 M to apply between Ferris, Mule, and any 3rd-day superslot dollars. I'm still guessing $3.0 and $1.0 for Ferris and Mule; which would leave ≤~$90K for 3rd-day overslot offers to Wheat and Blatter. (assuming none of NOriega or Rujano already got that....). Or perhaps Mule will get $0.9 like Paciolla got, and leave a little more for Blatter? Hull was the only significant underslot guy. McCullough got $125K, so basically 3rd-day slot. McGwire $200, just a modest little overslot.

Wow, big surprise. An overslot for 23-year-old Noland is totally a shocker. I'd totally assumed he'd be a standard $25K type senior-sign guy. Plus with other pitchers profiling as high-velocity guys, I didn't anticipate a 23-year-old 88-91 mph finesse guy to get overslot. They must love his apart-from-velocity profile. Could also be another case where Callis is reporting 88-91 as his normal fastball, but Cubs scout it more favorably. Perhaps typical was 88-91, but everybody touches higher, so maybe they've seen touch 94-96, and figure they can normalize that in pitch lab? Or maybe he's an old-school 2-seam guy, and it's good; but they figure he can pick up a 94-95 4-seam, or something like that? I'm both shocked and kind of delighted. I'd assume he was just a roster-fill senior-sign, not really a big-league prospect. The fact that they expend superslot dollars on him reflects that they must view him as an actual prospect. Fun!

Between the savings for Horton and Hull plus the 5% overage, they have $1,978,045 extra to spread around Ferris, Paciolla and Mulé. I assume they'll clear another ≥$250 on Noland and McCullough. *So overall >$2.2 in discretionary overslot. I'm kinda guessing ~$0.2 of that will be for 3rd day overslot(s), and that it will be ~$2M on the picks 2-4. Perhaps simple negotiation/discussion round-numbers might have been $3M, $1M, and $1M for Ferris-Paciolla-Mule. If those three got $5.0, $1.0, and $1.0 all on the dot, that would be $2.1 over. Kantro could accomodate that, just barely, if he's saving <$100K for 3rd day, and if McGwire, Frisch, and Birdsell are all either slot or variably under. I'm curious whether McGwire will be slot, or if maybe he'll get a little extra? His slot if $189; I'd not be surprised to see them bump it to $200, 250, or $300. I'm also curious to see how the overslots shake out between Mule and Paciolla. Mule's gotten much more talk and attention. So I'm curious whether he gets biggish overslot and Paciolla isn't much above slot? Or if they like Paciolla more than we realize, and he gets a bigger overslot than we realize? For now I'll just guess $1M each.

Little went 4, his longest. But still threw only 45 pitches, per box. I believe his previous 3-inning outing, he only used like 36 pitches per box. Little being the model of pitch-count efficiency is not something I had anticipated! :). Will be interested to see if he ends up getting some 60-pitch-count games as the last weeks play out. I'm interested to see how his control looks down the stretch. Perhaps if he's semi-frequently stacking good-control and good-pitch-count-efficiency games, I wonder if there's any chance that he might cause them to reconsider a future in rotation? He still hasn't allowed a HR, a quality that might be especially appealing in a rotation guy.

https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-close-out-2022-mlb-draft-with-another-run-on-arms/ 32 minutes, Kantro on from 5 minutes to the end. I love hearing him talk about both the players and the process.

That logic seems great. Interesting that last summer they took 7 preps on day 3; this year only 3, if in fact Wheat, who'll turn 20 within two weeks, is viewed in that pool. Last year he said they had "intel" that some high school player might consider signing for $125. Three did (Cunningham, olivo, and Rodriguez). I wonder if he did the same thing this year, but only took 3? And if so, if they are all the "bullet" guys? Or whether one, two, or all three might consider signing for the $125? Or if maybe Rujano already is that bullet, with none left?

The worst three teams get equal lottery odds. Each gets 1/6 odds, so 50% shot that one of the worst three will get pick #1. *IF* they finish with one of the 3rd worst records, they'll have >60% probability of getting one of the top 5 picks.

Rujano has apparently already committed to the Cubs. Kantro said he expected 18 or 19 to sign. I'm guessing Blatter is the guy who won't sign, and will go to Alabama and the SEC instead. Why take a guy you don't expect to sign? Not sure. Back in the old days, they'd always draft a couple of guys who they couldn't afford. At least, they couldn't afford unless either the player changed his mind and agreed for less than expected; or unless an expensive guy failed his physical, freeing up dollars. I imagine the other possibility is that maybe a guy won't sign now because he wants to try JuCo next spring. The latter might make sense for a kid like Blatter; is he so good that he'll actually get innings at Alabama? He might be better off to play a year in Juco, and reassess. Maybe take $125 or $200 from the Cubs and go pro? Maybe don't, but if you've been so great maybe go into the draft and go higher? Or maybe go to Alabama, but with the understanding that you'll get a lot of innings once in the SEC, rather than maybe going now as a freshman and getting only 9 innings all season?

I'm a little conflicted on Mule. He seems like a really high-ceiling possibility, given the high velocity that he was clocked with once. So super exciting. So I love the possibilities, and I love the chance for Breslow and the pitch-lab guys to have a big-armed young guy that they can try to develop from the start. So I love all of that, and the hope that comes with it. But as with any young prospect, and any pitcher really, I have several hesitancies: 1. Will velocity be amazing? Triple-digits is an attention-getter, but reports said he wasn't that fast this spring. Trevor Clifton and Duane Underwood come to mind as guys who'd hit 99 as juniors, who were perceived as exciting signs, who had solid velocity as pros but never anything amazing. 2. Injury risk: Reports said he had a sore arm this spring. Of course injury risk comes with every pitcher. But lots of sore-armed HS pitchers end up with arm problems. 3. Wildman: Reports suggested more thrower more than pitcher. We've seen a lot of guys recently who throw hard but are too wild to be very useful. 4. Pitchlab: My read is that the pitch lab has been more effective in improving velocity and pitch shape than in remediating control issues. Helping wildmen like Maples, Burl, or Jensen to locate consistently hasn't really been consistently transformative? Obviously there is no drafting young pitches without risk, and I'm sure without the risks he'd not have still been available in round 4. Cubs are maybe overdue to click on some high-risk-high-reward guys.

I'm a big optimist, it's fun. So I admit I'm pretty fascinated with the draft. I'm no scout and no nothing, but I'm currently of the Cubbie-koolaid mind that Kantrovitz is smart; that Breslow and the pitch-lab process is really good; and that Hawkins adds insight into pitching scouting-and-development. So I think it's really fun to provide Breslow and the pitching-development team some volume of excellent talent to work with. Having draft few talented pitchers lately, and then with most of them being injured a lot, I feel like Breslow hasn't had the biggest pool of talent to work with. So I think this is really an exciting draft. I also like the concept of taking Harton underslot so that with Ferris they've added two rotation prospects that they scouts as top-20-worthy picks. I wasn't sure how the Horton-Ferris prices would come into yesterday; so actually being able to afford three HS projection picks is really fun. Getting top-10 draft budget and overage sure helps. This should be a fun several years to see where Ferris, McGwire, Mule, and Paccioloa are at by age 21 and 22. There's been a lot of hype about Breslow and the pitch lab. This gives him the collection of arms to put the hype to the test. Would be so awesome to have it turn out great and have the hype be vindicated.

I almost think that Law including Horton in the top-100 and as a 3rd rounder, before he flashed the killer slider, and before he actually pitched effectively, speaks to his stuff and how projectable he was even before the slider and the explosion. Don't think that reflects either that Law is dumb or that the Cubs reached.

Pitching is strange. Gallardo had given up 19 runs over his previous 4 starts and 18 innings, and then just like that he pulls out an outing like this. His previous season-high for K's was 7. What a weird world. Would be cool if there was some adjustment that unleashed a game like tonight, as Tom observed. This one gets his ERA down under 4, and his hits has slipped under innings, 80 hits in 81.2 IP. Espinoza at South Bend isn't a glamour prospect, and he's been getting hit hard a lot lately. Part of me thinks his rotation spot could be given to Devers even if Wicks didn't get promoted. But, I'm not the development guy. It's always possible that if Gallardo or Espinoza have a stretch of games that weren't great statistically, perhaps there was developmental purpose and they were trying something? Beats me.