craig

Thanks for lists. Quick thoughts: Surprising to me is how Triantos stays so high in so many lists. Low ISO with DH-like defense, seems like he should be more ~20 than top 12. NY, I think Pipeline has Wiggins too low, not too high. They put Wiggins AFTER Rivera, even though Wiggins was drafted a round ahead, and Wiggins got twice the money, and the Cubs did subsequent drafting to accommodate Wiggins overslot. Obviously lots of injured wildmen never work. But I'd give a more credence to the Cubs valuation than Pipeline's.. I admit I'm something of a ceiling guy, so I appreciate Kantro's TORP ceiling valuation. Padder, I'm pretty OK with down-ranking Cristian. Yes, he seemed promising and projectible when he was 14, and the door hasn't shut yet. But no contact, no power, no progress, and sub-par middle-infield defense makes him a longish shot. Surprised Pipeline still has him as high as 21. Interesting that McGeary is top-30 in both lists, and top 20 in Pipeline.

Well, my save lux-tax motivation logic did not play out into an actual trade. Maybe they had some trades they were talking on, that didn't play out. Or, maybe my rationale was faulty? I heard that there was also some information reported counter to the initial report. Initial report had us sending them International cash. Other thing I heard, third hand, was that we receive the international cash, plus that we sent some money over in the deal. If the latter were true, that would argue against the motivation being saving lux space. Question: Is it even possible to acquire IFA money for the upcoming year? Or, is any cash that they got only usable for the present year? In which obviously all of the main guys have already been signed, so what value is there in getting more now?

Neither Manny nor Sampson were on the 40-man. It was the $600K.

Sampson's has a $1.9 guaranteed contract. This frees the remaining $600K. I think the IFO money is for the current year, not next year's class? Manny's been very good lately. May finally be healthy and settling in, perhaps years of D+D ready to finally bear fruit? Obviously Manny is more desirable than Roberson. But I think that was the price to free the extra $600K for whatever deadline pickup(s) Hoyer may be hoping to complete.

I am so glad the NL has the DH now. It opens a possible door fo a guy like Perlaza, *IF* his hitting could carry up. But JD, I am 100% opposed to considering guys like Perlaza or Ballesteros for 1B. No short guys allowed at 1B. The importance of 1B defense is sometimes grossly underrated. Can't have a <6-foot guy playing 1B.

Maddux, wrong board, maybe. But have you heard anything about Frisch, draft pick from last year about whom I've heard zero since? Is this just their standard healthy patient process for a TJ guy? Or has he perhaps had some kind of setback(s) in his rehab? I'm kinda wondering if a guy like that is doing fine, and is working hard in pitch lab in Mesa, and all is progressing desirably? Or might show up in an Arizona league game any day? Or if he's pacing to get going once fall instrux happens?

Cubs drafted Will Frisch last summer. Wiggins had his TJ in February, Frisch in March. It's end of July and we haven't seen Frisch yet this summer, 16-months out. If Wiggins hypothetically follows an equivalent timeline, ≥16 months, we won't see much of Wiggins (if any) next season. Next summer could be fun with talented recent picks Gray, Ferris, and Horton all starting out in full season. Maybe Frisch and Sanders too?

Exactly. Ty Nichols is an experienced and well respected area scout in Arkansas and Oklahoma. [Just as Billy Swope is over in Virginia. (I believe Shaw, Carico, and Hope were all selections from Swope's scouting area, plus at least one other 3rd day pick.).]. Kantro mentioned that Nichols and Shaw are two of the scouts he trusts and relies on, and that he also uses as mentors for younger scouts. Nichols has been tracking Wiggins in both HS and his 3 years at Arkansas. Nichols has a good relationship with Arkansas's coaches, so I think he knows how to filter the feedback he gets from them. As mentioned earlier, the Cubs hired Arkansas's strength-and-conditioning guy, who had worked with Wiggins in past. So I think they've got lots of input on personality and brains and self-motivation and all that part of the profile. Obviously Nichols has all of the technology for tracking metrics on Wiggins stuff. Horton had only flashed his plus new slider for a few weeks, but Nichols and Kantro believed it was real. Only late did Wiggins start to flash his downer curveball, but Nichols and Kantro liked it. Maybe wiggins fall-ball splash was kinda analogous to Horton's last month in college? Nichols and Kantro see the makings of four good pitches, and saw progress in terms of his control. Each guy is unique. Yes, Nichols and Kantro saw some improvement in control, but anti-awful improvement can still be way below average. Who knows how future control will be? And sure, Nichols can record some great pitch metrics; but if Wiggins can't control them, or throw good ones consistently, of what value are the best-pitch metrics? Kantro's a smart guy, he understands that stuff. He went for the upside and took the risks associated. That's life in the draft. I hope it works out and Kantro looks genius.

Yeah, Kantro analyzes every dollar,. He totally knew the deal. If he'd expected Wiggins to sign for slot, he'd have drafted some contingent overslot guys in Day 3, as he's done in previous drafts. This was no surprise to Kantro. Kantro loving Wiggins that much, and planning the overslot from the start, also adds context to Kantro's interviews. I'd assumed "top-of-rotation" references was just draft-gush hyperbole for a sub-slot pick, but the dollar speak to how much upside they perceive. . I'm still curious as to the delay. Was Wiggins really considering going back to school, and pitching his way into the 1st round? If so, he must have gotten upbeat reports from his TJ doctors. But who knows, maybe his sister had a destination wedding; or his grandfather was in hospice. Being in rehab anyway, there was no urgency to get signed and get onto the fields in Mesa.

Thanks, JD! Perfect timing, and that's encouraging. His body type obviously isn't going to change. But anybody who follows college football knows that there are some super-motivated guys who sometimes get way more toned over the course of a couple of years. That would be super cool if he makes it as a catcher.

Any updated perceptions regarding Ballesteros defensively? Just from box-score glancing, it doesn't seem like there is an obviously inordinate frequency of passed balls or wild pitches that jump out at me in his box-score games. Nor that opposing teams run-wild and either attempt or succeed on an inordinate number of steal attempts. It would be super cool if he panned out as a good hitter, but his defense ended up being solid.

Yeah, we'll never know. Even if Kantro was bidding against himself, we'll never know. His take and scouting comments were way more effusive than the media writeups. Top-of-rotation reference, reference to both down curve as well as slider, impressive fastball metrics, perceived improvement of his control. Maybe most draft bosses saw him like Keith Law and the media guys, but perhaps several others also saw and liked what Kantro liked?

On Day1 when we picked Wiggins, did any of us anticipate he'd be significantly superslotted? We'll see what he ends up actually signing for. But I think Kantro usually uses his money very carefully and uses all of it. So if he's saved $300 for overslot, and Wiggins is the only guy left to sign, seems Wiggins is going to get a nice overslot. Day 1: Media guys rank as an 85-150 3rd/4th-round guy; most report a pretty straight fastball; all agree he's a wildman with no control of fastball much less anything else. TJ surgery. Who guessed he'd get superslot? Kind of a cool story. In the unlikely event that he develops into a high-end rotation guy with decent-enough control, the Cubs scouts and PD guys will deserve a lot of praise.

Modern draft is so different from olden days, before the cap, the slots, and the quick signing deadline. Way different from the suspense, and from the long process. Dunston, Maples... are we going to sign them? Bobby Hill, Bobby Brownlee, Blasko, they haven't signed yet. When does their college start classes? Did they actually go to class on first day, and we've lost them? Some of these guys taken between round 20-40 seem pretty interesting; will Hendry really have the budget to sign any of them? 20 years ago I never imagined it would be so snappy. 20 picks, 20 guys signed within two weeks or less. The only suspense whether a couple of 3rd-day guys will sign, and about the apportionment of bonus dollars. So straightforward and uncomplicated these days! The suspense about whether guys signed will be good remains.

Overslot guys can't sign until the Day1/2 guys officially sign and free the requisite overslot cash. For example, suppose you hypothetically sign Hope at $700, assuming Wiggins 5% overage? Or for $850, presuming Wiggins signs $150 sub-slot? What would happen if Wiggins bombs his physical and doesn't sign? Or his agent breaks his word and reneges on the $150-subslot agreement? *If* you'd already formalized Hope's deal, you'd not have the money. I count $551 being available right now, presuming the 5% Wiggins overage. So, Wiggins slot, Hope could get $700K. 3rd-round money. Maybe more, if Wiggins signs sub-slot. Apparently Billy Swope persuaded Kantro to like Hope an awful lot!! I assumed overslot, but hadn't guessed that much. Hope Hope can learn to hit, the most elusive of skills.

Interesting figures. Two years ago, Kantro went strongly sub-slot with some of the Day 2 picks. (Riley Martin, Peter Matt $1K and $5K. Five guys picks 5-10 signed for $79 to $262K below slot.) Last year, Nick Hull only serious Day2 sub-slot ($25K). Day 3, only two guys below $125, and the lowest at $50K. So Kalmer $50, that' matches last year's lowest Day3 deal. Interesting that JC 10th rounder took significant sub-slot. His scouting sounded pretty favorable, so it wouldn't have shocked had he been full slot or variably over slot. But no. I'm curious where the overslot money is going. Quick round-number, between 5% and the three subslot deals, that would be ~$550. Subtract $150 for Melendez, but that would still allow $400. That's without adding more sub-slot dollars for Wiggins and Rivera. Wouldn't you assume Wiggins and Rivera should both sub-slot, and free up even more? So, if they have $400 to maybe $600-700, what's it for? Some for Hope. But is he THAT good that it's ALL for him? Is college Singer going to actually get super-slotted? That would really be interesting. Past two years, Kantro would only save ~$75K for Day3 overslots, and he'd only sign one per year. Obviously Hope will get more than that, but is it possible Kantro wants to sign more than one Day3 overslot?

Thanks Maddux! Good to know, and good news.

Interesting that Rosario right at slot. Not common for a HS guy after round 2. That the league didn't value a guy with his power and arm higher than 6th-round slot may reflect how they scouted his hitting. Have we ever established how tall he actually is? I'd prefer 6'2", but have seen 6'5" and 6'6" as well.

https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-wrap-up-first-day-of-draft-by-taking-intriguing-college-arm/ Kantro on 2nd-day picks.

Thanks for all the notes and research, Rubes. I kinda assume that 11th round HS Hope will be signed. Last couple of drafts, Kantro has drafted a couple of 3rd-day HSers who'd cost overslot, and figure if one didn't take it, somebody else would. But Hope is the only HS guy taken, and they didn't wait. I assume he's the guy they want, and they kinda already knew what they needed to get him.

I'll maybe also copy this to 2nd-day thread, but since this is the active thread, thought I'd add it here. Kantro comments on 2nd day guys. https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cubs-wrap-up-first-day-of-draft-by-taking-intriguing-college-arm/ I found the following two comments most noteworthy. Particularly the idea that Carico could "maintain the catching position".

Agree with the note about looking for ways to get value-per-limited dollar. Every team is trying to do that, of course. And risk-reward is complex for every individual player. But yeah, Wiggins has all three of wildman, TJ, and delayed start working against him. Cubs obviously thought those negatives enabled them to get a good-ceiling possibility at a place and price in the draft that otherwise wouldn't have been available. Your observation that the Cubs don't value top-of-zone riding fastballs like most teams was interesting and helpful. Not something I'd thought about before. Heh heh, not sure they're wise in that, given how ineffective some of our high-velocity fastballs have seemed to be! But that's a helpful thought for understanding some of their drafting.

Agree. The long levers for 6'5/6'6" seem too long for my preference.

I love having as many different scouting reports included as exist. After the first few rounds, often there aren't very many. But seeing different perspectives from different observers is really helpful. In the threads, California Raisin has posted a bunch, and it's super interesting to see different thoughts on Carico's defense, for example. Or Wiggins' fastball, one report can talk vertical drop, while another scout fastball as straight. So whether in the threads themselves, or in the synopsis listing, I'd love to have as many links to multiple reports.

What do you think or know about Rosario? Haven't seen much info or media scouting on him. Seems to have the size and frame to have big power potential, and the arm to be perhaps really good. But, he's not been listed in any media-ranking top-250 or whatever. Being from New Jersey, and now at a sports-academy-HS in SC, I'm not sure why scouts would have missed him, it's not like he's from Manitoba or North Dakota and scouts never saw him. And being 19, he's not too young to have ever been seen. His height also lists differently. mlb Draft tracker has him at 6'6; NSB lists him at 6'5"; Perfect Game 6'2". I wonder which is real? I wonder how long he and his family lived in the states? seems like a man of much mystery. I'm guessing once the Cubs sign him, his bonus might provide some clues, too. *IF* he's slot ($326), or not hugely over ($400 or so?), that might provoke less "wow, I wonder if" that if he gets $700 or some really big super-slot.