craig

You're a believer and think he's earned a big-league spot? I'm kinda agnostic. I'd love to have him emerge as a good big-league reliever. But, kinda feel like that's up to him to prove it? He's got a clear opportunity to win a spot this camp. But not sure I'd just tenure him a roster spot based on past history, if he doesn't kinda win it in camp? He's been a career 4.75-ERA guy, with a kinda bad fastball, high HR rate, and pedestrian K-rate, in past. I hope he's a new and better man, 100% healthy, and that health and "Cubs infrastructure" will get more out of him future than he's produced past. Would **love** to have him look sharp in camp, look like he's a better pitcher than he was, have him win a job, have him emerged as a good reliever, and have him be good for years of club control. That would be wonderful. But if he doesn't sparkle in camp, I'm fine to option him; give him another chance to prove he's improved and to earn a shot back. First three X games underwhelming, 1K and 1.8 WHIP. No sparkle yet. With Assad out, two spots between Wicks, Brown, Miller, Pearson, Keegan, and non-roster guys. Not the most imposing competition, so Pearson may JAG his way to roster even without looking good in camp. Keller has opt out, Keegan and Miller no options. If for hypothetical example Keller looks better than Pearson in camp, I'd have no problem keeping Keller and optioning Pearson. If Pearson is improved and is ready to be a good major leaguer, he'll get his chance soon enough.

Not sure I'm tracking? I don't think Pearson will be considered by the Cubs for rotation. Unless he unexpectedly shows something unexpectedly interesting in that role at Iowa. But from a developmental standpoint, if he's going to Iowa anyway, why would having him start versus relieve at Iowa be really stupid, or hurt him developmentally? I'd think racking up more innings might be good for him developmentally, and give him more opportunities to practice whatever pitches or grips he's trying to optimize. And if he's extended so that he could be a long 3-inning guy on occasion, and have no problem handling 2 inning outings, why would that be so stupid?

Allen, thanks for your charts, helpful. Any info on Brody McCullough, who you have deep on your AA rotation? Drafted 3 years ago, turns 25 in June. but has mostly been injured and has only 108 pro innings. Did we ever get info on what his injuries actually were? Any guess if he'll be healthy enough to pitch? I'm wondering if he's a guy who, *IF* he's healthy enough to pitch, will get another shot at rotation? Or if he's maybe too old and injured for rotation development, and might just be a bullpen piece?

"Young star" is Cubs-fan hyperbole. The main concern isn't "a place for him". It's improving as a hitter. Will he be able to hit or slug? He's hit 14-13-15 HR's the last three years. Big-league pitchers are better. He's got a bunch of getting-better to do if he hopes to be a big-leaguer. Would be super beautiful if could show improvement. As with Caissie and Triantos and Moises, this will be his first chance to repeat a level. Can he improve himself enough so that he can do better at this repeat-level? Can he improve himself so that he'll be ready for the majors in 2026? Beats me. Your chance to show it, Kevin! I hope you can! The author wants the Cubs to know if he's ready for a starting job next season. It would be super cool if he was; I think being ready to be a utility outfielder would be OK.

I figure anybody who has some noteworthy tool is worth keeping an eye on until they fail and prove they can't do it. So for sure, I'll keep an eye on. Really long shot, though. Swing seems so long, Going to strike out a lot, hard to imagine making enough good contact often enough to make it work. But maybe he'll surprise.

Agree. He's .385 career BABIP in minors. .375 and .405 these last two seasons. https://www.milb.com/player/owen-caissie-683357

yeah, I agree Tom. This is always the thing with prospects. Yes, we know what they did last year, and before. But will they get better, and if so by how much, and how quickly? I never know in advance. That's why I'm so curious to see what this year will mean for Caissie. I often kinda like it when a guy finally repeats a level. When it's the same level, you can easily see if he's improved or not. Caissie's goign to have the shot to prove that 2025 Caissie is better than 2024 Caissie. A note on batting average: every HR is a hit. Caissie's had some uncommonly good BABIP's in past. All quality of hard contract? Or some luck? I don't know. One of the best ways to get around the "could be luck" factor is to just bash more HR's. Which tends to help walk-rates, too. Not sure if it's possible, we'll see. But seems to me the most straightforward way for Caissie to strengthen his average, his slugging, his walk-rate, his OBP, his prospect status, everything offense, is to be able to whack more balls over the fence. For a 500-PA guy, an extra 10 HR's is worth 100 OPS points. 20 points in batting average/OBP, 80 points in slugging. Caissie hit 19 HR last year, would like him on pace to hit 30 this season. Ideally without wrecking his K-rate or walk rate or BABIP rates.

Pretty enthusiastic about the stuff. Not sure the Cubs pitching infrastructure has facilitated much improvement in wildman issues. But man would it be nice if Wiggins could sharpen it up and have the major-league control required to get success out of his stuff. Given our slender volume of rotation guys with ceiling, man would it be impactful to beat the odds and get lucky with Wiggins. Perhaps a year further removed from TJ, perhaps he'll take a step (or three) in improving his control.

Fascinated to see how he does this year. Not super confident, given the K's and the contact challenges. But I sometimes when guys are constantly promoted, I think repeating a level can be a really good thing. Opportunity to step forward. Opportunity to show he's better now than last year. Did he learn some things and make some adjustments last year? Perhaps they'll click and further lock in this year, and the power and pull and lift will become more consistent, and the slumps will be briefer. Like a lot of power guys, he needs to get to the power. If your prospect status depends on power, you want to hit a lot of HR's. Will he hit enough? No idea. But there's a chance, and *IF* he can show that he's taken another step forward, and can emerge as a probably solid starting player, or platoon guy, that would be really nice. Tucker will probably be a one-and-done; if so, Caissie might have a window of opportunity. And if Tucker gets extended, but Caissie does have an impressive season, his trade value might jump, and perhaps he could be the lead piece for a quality player. Just hoping to see the HR levels and HR/K ratio improve significantly, and have him look like he's ready to be a good starting big-leaguer.

I think any decent infielder should be able to transition to 1B rather well. If he is short, there will be intrinsic wingspan factor to his disadvantage. But yeah, other qualities may outweigh the wingspan bit. Shaw is only two inches taller than Moises. I think he's much more likely to play decent big-league 1B than Moises. Of course I may be wrong! It's just a discussion board, I'm sure I've got all kinds of dumb ideas or expectations. But yeah, I think any decent infielder could transition to 1B and be variably good/decent. Infielders like Solano and Shaw have range. They've handled hot shots at 3b, hot shots to 1B shouldn't be that different. They have manifested lateral range at 3B and SS, and Solano at 2B. I expect they'll have lateral range on grounders at 1B just like that did at other infield spots. Shaw is suggested to have good and quick footwork at 3B; that should translate nicely to 1B if needed. I hope you guys are right. That Moises is so quick and athletic that he'll handle hot shots at 1b well; that he'll handle hard grounders well, just like he digs sliders and breaking balls in the dirt at catcher; and that his lateral range will as good as for Solano and Shaw, and it will all be no problem. I guess I'm just kinda nervous that even if he trims stomach weight, that his build with his haunches just really isn't equipped for the lateral range that good infielders have. Cubs haven't played him at all at 3B or 2B or SS, the way Shaw and Solano have been used, so I'm kinda guessing they don't really think he has the lateral range that most infielders have. But maybe he does, and he'll be just fine at 1B. Hope so. But yeah, just like I have no evidence that he can't play decent 1B, I suspect there is presently lack of evidence that he can.

Thanks for discussion. No, zero evidence that 5'8" is a prohibitive problem. Your Solano example logically demonstrates the contrary. To flip the question, do we have any evidence that Moises can play a good big-league 1B? I do think height is a factor for 1B. But yeah, maybe not that much. Neither Solano nor Moises have the have the wingspan that longer guys have. So it seems self-evident that there will be some line drives they won't be able to snag, and some errant throws that they won't be able to reach while keeping toe on the bag. But, Solano the 2B/SS/3B is probably ranging and snagging some ground balls that tall 1B's like Fred McGriff or Matt Mervis weren't getting. So, some pros and cons. The height thing is just one of multiple factors, and not intrinsically prohibitive, as you exemplify with Solano.

Point taken that present roster lacks an obvious (or good-defense) backup 1B. For now I think it's unlikely that Moises would be the first choice if Busch gets injured, but it's not impossible, and the choice now might change come July. Happ is short, 6'0". Berti and Shaw are shorter, 5'10"; Moises is shorter yet. None of has played hardly any 1B. If Busch is out, I'm guessing we're dropping from top to bottom quartile defensively at 1B. Yes, there are a couple of short 1B who get used, and are decent. Moises might be a unicorn and be decent there, despite both his short wingspan and his unique physique. No harm in no-evidence wishing for a unicorn. But I don't see any reason to expect it's likely. Guess I'm just kinda resisting the mindset that 1B-defense doesn't matter. Or that any good hitter who's inept at other positions, you can just move him to 1B and he'll be fine. Imagine the following extreme hypothetical outcomes, and their relative probability for Moises. Primary catcher. Defense develops into good enough (and bat). Primary 1B. Defense becomes good enough (and bat). Primary DH. Bat, including HR power, becomes good enough to support this role. #2 catcher. Defense good enough for 30-60 starts (and bat). Starting catchers rarely start 120 games, so #2 catches a lot of games. #2 1B. Barring injury, starting 1B rarely site more than 15 games. So a #2 1B Lesser role. 4A guy, maybe? Back/bubble of the roster guy? Part-time DH/PH/3rd-string-C/3rd-string-1b type guy? Primary-anything: DH >> C >>> 1B. (Odds of having good enough defense/per-position-bat combo at 1B least probable. ) Adding enough effective-HR-power to be a good primary DH is more likely than odds of making it as a primary C or 1B. Fielding/hitting well enough to be #2 catcher is more likely than primary anything. Good #1 catchers are hard to find. #2 catchers always short on either defense or offense, yet they still typically start ≥40 games a year. If Moises hits pretty well, that may justify being a 30th-percentile defender. As you mentioned, 1908, the prospect of being #2 catcher (start 30-60 games), sub-average but not--awful at 1B (start 15 games), and bunchof-starts DH, even if not majority, games) and 45(C) + 15(1B) + 50(DH) = 110 starts. I think that's the path I most hope for. I guess I kinda think that improving into #2 catcher or a primary DH are really the two realistic pathways to making it as an asset. If he picks up an occasional game at 1B, that's nice. But a backup 1B with no other position, he's a heavy-usage DH or he's not a thing. In terms of short-term opportunity, Seiya is DH when Seiya, Happ, and Tucker are healthy. *IF* any of those three, or Busch, go IL, that would open 1B/DH. Perhaps Moises would be next man up. Or perhaps not, maybe we sign Bregman and Shaw would be ahead of Moises for that, or Caissie, or some vet. But yeah, *IF* Moises can explode into the best bat available; and *if* Shaw not Bregman is playing 3b; then it only takes one injury to any of Busch-Seiya-Happ-Tucker to open up a 1B/DH opportunity for somebody.

Complex prospect. Hard to guess how he'll progress, or how he'll fit in majors. Some thoughts. 1908, part of your thought process is that his bat is too far ahead of his defense. How good his catching could become is iffy in the first place, even if he could fully optimize it. But you kinda argue that he'll never be able to fully optimize it because his bat will put him in the majors before he ever gets the opportunity to optimize his defense. There is definitely merit to that argument. I admit I do wonder how quickly his bat actually will force him up? Will he be THAT good that he needs to be up as a bat-only pinch-hitter/DH? You mention that he projects more as a 20-HR guy than a true HR guy. Suzuki is the DH. He's got 2 years of contract. If Ballesteros is a 20-HR type upside guy, I don't really see that being a guy who will push Seiya off of DH for the next two seasons. And if he's just coming up as a pinch-hitter 3rd-string catcher, I'm not sure they'll use Moises on the big-league roster all that much over the next two years. Thus, I'm thinking he might spend most of the next two years in the minors, with two years of opportunity to advance his catching defense (and optimize his physique). Do I assume that will optimize his defense to be able to play big-league catcher? I have no idea. My sense is that he may be sub-average at every feature (receiving, blocking, throwing, framing.). No report I've seen has ever suggested that he's average or better at ANY aspect of big-league catching. But, as you say, catching is a skill that can improve with time and effort and good coaching. I don't know how far that improvement will ever go. But *IF* he gets most of the next two years to work on it, I think we'll have a better idea whether it's hopeless or whether he's become OK/not-bad. So, I guess I'm hypothesizing that his current bat isn't so compellingly good-and-powerful that his callup is too imminent to allow two more years of defensive development. Like I say, no idea whether 2, 5, or 10 years of defensive development will ever get him far enough to be big-league playable. Don't know, but I hope so for sure! Don't know how good his offense will become. A guy who hits .270 with 20 HR and some walks, that's kinda like 2024 bellinger. I don't think that's a guy who's a compelling, big-ticket DH. By contrast, if you hit as well as Seiya, .848 OPS, that's a really valuable DH. .281 average, 21 HR, he was still really valuable. And Pete Alonso, he's been ≥34 HR every year. He just got a big deal. My ramble is that there's a continuum of offensive production, and of HR-power. Where Moises ends up may impact whether he's a big-asset high-value guy even as DH-only, versus decent/good big-league hitter if he had a position, but as a DH-only not that valuable. A DH-bench guy kinda needs to have some positions, if he's not a compelling most-days DH. I've mentioned this before, but I'm really hesitant to assume that Moises at 5'9" or whatever, with no wingspan and no defensive range, could be better than pretty awful at 1B, one of the most important defensive positions in mlb. (1b's handle tons of challenging ground balls, with difficult throws to moving-target pitchers trying to cover the bag; handle tons of erratic pickoff throws; handle so many throws from 2B/SS/3B, many of which VERY hard to handle. Very important defenisve position.). Assuming that Ballesteros will be anti-awful at 1B is an iffy assumption. Thinking that he'd actually be average or better at 1B is probably harder to imagine for 1B than for C. Defensively, the difference between being 2nd versus 3rd catcher is huge. Few catchers catch 120 games, so there are a bunch of opportunities for 2nd catcher. But 3rd catcher, especially if he's 3rd catcher because he's liability? That's not really much of a thing, unless you're primary DH. Heh, too long! Summary: 1. He should get another couple of years of opportunity to improve as catcher. 2. I doubt he's ever going to get used much at 1B, for defensive reasons. 3. I doubt is bat is currently so awesome that he's going to be called up as a full-time DH for Cubs soon. 4. If he can't catch, and can't 1B, he needs to be REALLY good hitter, with more than 20 HR-power, to be a big-asset DH. 5. **Lots** of value for a 50-start backup catcher, who can hit, DH, and play an occasional game as a bad 1B.

Thanks much. So, about $67K plus Games. Yeah, the Games factor adds an unknown, no idea. To me Games + $67 doesn't seem like a huge shortfall. Don't imagine you can pick that up for nothing. But I'm guessing there probably is a team that hasn't spent out, and that it wouldn't take a major talent sacrifice to trade for what's needed. Or, maybe it's tough break, and Martinez just gets to choose. Settle for $700 or $750 or whatever is left post-Games, even if it's less than the reported $900. Or, maybe keep the reported $900 arrangement, but need to wait till next January. Or maybe Cubs/Martinez just accept that it didn't work out this year, that's business, and both sides go back into next year with a clean slate and no commitments to each other.

Totally agree for draft. Not seeing manifestation yet for international infielders. That's where I'm wanting to see things get way better. Sure hoping it's the "takes time", and that's about to kick in. I'm with Tom, want to get some hits from within the Yahil Melendez, Fernando Cruz, Derniche Valdez, Angel Cepeda, Adan Sanchez*, Ronny Cruz, Robin Ortiz, Juan Tomas, Juan Cabada, Wilfry De La Cruz, Cesar Lugo, Edgardo De Leon, Eli Lovich, Ty Southisene crop. (I know some of those were drafted, but I'm just copying Tom's good list of teenage position guys. We need to get some hits out of that bunch, particularly the international guys.).

By your numbers, how much over? Like, how much might the cubs need to pick up to make the reported deal? $200K? $75K? I'm wondering whether their close enough that it won't take a big deal to swing it, and that perhaps a few teams have slivers of sufficient amount still left. Like, maybe Canario has a mashing camp, but still just doesn't make the team. But some team with a sliver of international cash deals it for him? Or like Keegan has a good camp, and his velocity is up 1-2 mph as well. But he still just gets numbered out, so some team with even a sliver of international cash deals it for Keegan? Or something like that?

Jaims Martinez still not announced, correct? How much was his deal reported to be, $$-wise, and how much space do we think we actually have? Like, how much pool money would they need to add, to reach the original reported deal estimate? Like, pick up $50K in pool money in some end-of-camp trade, or something?

On Derniche, did we ever get any input for why he was suspended for so much of the season? Or is my memory crazy, and he was never suspended, he was just injured or something?

Yeah, with all the Latin teenage shortstops, who can guess which of those guys might emerge as real prospects? Not super inspiring that the last two big-ticket internationals, Fernando Cruz from last year and Derniche Valdez from previous year, can't even crack BA's top 30. And all the newer guys (Tomas, de la Cruz, Cabada from this month; Ronny Cruz, Southisene, from this draft; Melendez from previous draft) who are in that range. I don't imagine any of the scouts can know very well which teen infielder will actually hit or not. Perhaps Derniche will show up with more motivation and maturity this season, will make at least a little contact, and after he's on the field for a few weeks in AZ he'll jump ahead of all those other guys in scouts eyes? Same for Fernando, who knows? Seems like every scout who's had a brief glimpse at some of these guys, they all like somebody different. I just hope they don't all bust, which seems the Cubs norm with teen infielders.

I checked, Game 2 against Kansas City in the playoffs was Berti's first start of his career at 1B!

Brujan and Canario are both out of options, right? So, only way they can sub for PCA come a June interview is if they are still in the organization. Gotta either make the roster, or get derostered and have nobody claim them. Maybe Brujan will make it.

This is kinda more a big-league roster question, but you guys know all the prospects so would be better able to answer. Q1: If Busch were to get injured, do any of our prospects have 1B experience? I know Moises does, but as a short guy with no range and no catch radius, I assume he'd be terrible. Have Caissie or Alcantara or Canario ever played any 1B? For big-league guys, do you think Happ or Suzuki ever have? Just kinda wondering what we'd do depth-wise *IF* Busch got hurt, or if he's terrible. Moises? Johnny Long? Or is this maybe a depth problem, and one of Hoyer's last signs will be a 1B/3B/OF/DH type guy for 40-man? Or is this an obvious opportunity and you maybe sign some AAAA 1B-type guy and sell him on the opportunity that you're one injury away from a big-league callup? Q2: What's your guess if PCA was to get injured? Tucker? Canario, if he makes the roster or clears waivers and is still with the organization? Alcantara, and hope he can hit enough to be OK? Maybe Triantos will get some CF work as the season progresses, so down the line he might be a CF option if Alcantara's bat doesn't progress?

How big does a signing need to be to count against the pool? Doesn't that only apply to signing above some threshold? For example, if I subtract those under $50K, the >$50K listing above sum to 6.254, which would fit. Or is $20K at/above the threshold already?

Tennessee had park-friendly numbers, too. Relative to the league, at least.

Yeah, getting onto the AAA roster is super easy. Most interesting minor-leaguers aren't even draft eligible yet 40 guys on the big-league roster triple-A roster is reasonably big as well, so if there's a guy you like at all, who's been around long enough to be draft eligible, teams can put them there. So, the fact that Gallardo wasn't even placed on the AAA roster to protect him is kinda interesting. May reflect that his rehab hasn't gone great thus far? Or would it be too soon to have any clue whether it will be fully successful or not?