craig

Carico >>> Trice in my book. Trice learning a new position. Trice is a K-factory.

That was a really good read. Brown seems like sharp guy. The decision to bag the slider is interesting and significant. Guys often spend some time tinkering before settling in with what actually works for them. Hopefully he'll eventually come out of the "tinkering" period and have the command to do well with his fastball-curve-change. His command has been questioned. But he acted like like his command has never been bad until last year after the injury. Hopefully he'll be healthy this year, more consistent, and the command won't be that problematic? Asked about role, he said "starter". That was expected, I think. We'll see if beginning the year as starter lasts longer than it did last summer for Palencia and Little. But man, given the age on Hendricks, Taillon, and how little remaining control the Cubs have on them and Imanage, there sure could be opportunities for internal rotation guys in the upcoming couple of years, *IF* Brown could justify getting a shot.

Thanks. That's some evidence. A 45/50 in right seems pretty decent.

Thanks, Tom. Just wondering if you had any basis for your opinion. So you think he can play CF, I think he's sub-par defensively in both corners and probably unplayable in center. Just a forum to share opinions. Neither of us have shared evidence that our views are correct or informed, and there haven't been many scouting observations on his defense since he filled out. He did play a couple of games in center only 2 seasons ago, and in 2021 he played almost a third of his games in center; even after his callup to Iowa he played 4 games in center. So back in those days, his CF was evidently considered anti-awful enough to be a part-time minor-league CFer. Would be super nice if he could emerge as an average or above-average corner outfielder. And probably lots easier to accelerate and run in the outfield if his back isn't cranky. Would be fun if both defense and power and contact all emerged as major-league this season.

Brennen needs to play baseball and get some experience hitting healthy, and ideally have some success. Give him a bunch of healthy AB's, and see if he can hit. That's not going to happen sitting on the end of the bench in Wrigley. Let him play every day at Iowa, and see if he can hit. Hopefully he will, he'll hit like a major leaguer, and he'll earn interest as a major leaguer or as a trade target. Tom, you view him as a good every-position defensive outfielder, CF included. Is there analytics support for that? Or your eyeball scouting? I admit I'm very skeptical, especially the capacity to play CF. He is *SO* big, he just looks too big and slow to be a good defensive OFer. Nor have I gotten the impression that he gets unusually good reads. Hope I'm wrong, and that he gets some healthy opportunity to play some good OF this season.

On Franklin, Law noted that "Hitters teed off on his fastball last year, slugging over .550 on the pitch in Double A." He may be kinda fast, sometimes. But that's really bad. Hard to have high ceiling with a bad fastball. Not sure how fixable that is. Tom is a believer that wildmen can improve control with practice; I'm kinda skeptical, kinda feel like guys who lack the fine motor skills to locate a fastball semi-consistently at age 20 or 23 probably won't learn that at 24. But, admittedly that may be too simplistic. For example, sometimes a guy's arm slot or arm speed telegraph fastball versus offspeed, and they can sometimes tweak that and improve disguise. Law says "The Cubs are trying to give him a two-seamer so he can get away from the hard contact on the four-seamer." Maybe that will help and change things? But yeah, it just seems like it's kinda hard to work around both a badly ineffective fastball and bad control. Hope he does it somehow.

Such an intriguing pick. Will be super interesting to see how he fares at Myrtle. Such a big jump in pitching talent that he'll face, who knows how that will go. But fun to dream that he's just a really smart, good hitter and that he'll keep hitting even as the velocity jumps. Defense is a huge question too, obviously. But would be so fun if he emerged as a viable catcher defensively. Would be super fun if both he and Ballesteros strengthen their defensive reputations this season, and both have win-win seasons both defensively and hitting.

Correct. Wicks only made 1/3 of the top-100's, so he's not eligible. And Busch isn't eligible due to trade. It's kinda funky how Wicks is off most lists altogether, but the couple of lists that he did make, he made top-50 in both. Wide variety of perspectives on most non-elite prospects.

HS talent like Alfonsin Rosario or Zyhir Hope will not choose college over pro because they are being denied 30 PA. If so, they are probably too dumb for college anyway! No pitcher is going to decide based on 5 innings in Arizona league. And any fan or pro scout who is "largely evaluating" some new draftee by 5 innings or 30 PA in Arizona August is not a very wise or sophisticated evaluator. This makes zero difference on their career or their pros-and-cons about signing. Insignificant. Moving the draft from June to July, that's the move that had already obviated the relevance of the summer league for new draftees. I wish they hadn't made that change, but they did.

I wonder if this might also be nice for carryover guys and draftees? I'm guessing that guys who have hanging around since March, all the rhythms maybe get disrupted when the new draftees start rolling in? Perhaps this way, the newly drafted guys can get all the primary attention they need, and the coaches can focus their time on the newly drafted guys. Other guys can stay and get help too; or maybe some will take a break, and go back and visit their family in the Dominican or whatever; or go fishing with grandpa in Wisconsin, or whatever?

I don't see any problem with the change, and I imagine it makes some sense. Minor leaguers who are in Arizona for spring training, can then stay for some of the no-box-score scrimmage season for one month in April rather than two months of that, and then progress to box-score Complex League in May instead of waiting till June. If they are progressing, then there will be a nice window of Myrtle's season left for them to advance in. So I think it's probably nice for the minor-leaguers. And probably all of the coaches, too. Finishing end of July, for guys that don't advance to Myrtle, that also gives them a longer window within to work on things, or to rest as needed, in advance of Fall Instrux? To be going non-stop from spring training through Fall Instrux with little break might be hard, physically and or homesick-wise? For high school draftees, a HS stud like Hope got 35 AB last year. Kind of a bummer for fans to lose that, but developmentally I'm not sure that's really anything lost. They can still be doing scrimmage work and getting coached as needed. College guys only spent a couple of days there anyway, so who cares? Overall, I think this will just be a nice opportunity for IFA guys and for low-level draftees from the previous year to push their way up to Myrtle faster, and to advance their careers, not delay them?

Killian is one of the couple of guys on the 40-man at risk of getting de-rostered if/when they sign Bellinger or whomever. Hope Sanders breaks out better than Killian. Obviously draft is most likely to hit with 1st rounders. Odds with Sanders aren't great. But it would be so nice if the Cubs D+D started to stack some successes with guys who aren't 1st rounders or > $1M superslots. Would love it if Sanders worked out well, or Birdsell or Paciolla. Gray and Murray. I'm hopeful for Sanders. He wasn't a total wildman in college, so there's a chance that he might develop enough control to be big-league OK in that area. And *IF* they can work up his stuff to work better without giving up a zillion HR's, there's a chance.

If Yamamoto wins the ROY, will the Dodgers still get a free draft pick in the 30's? No, I guess not. Neither BA nor Pipeline included him in their top-100 lists.

Yeah, fun to see Wicks rated so high. Kiley's reports on his stuff were all unusually favorable. Super bummer that Wicks didn't make top-100 from BA or Pipeline. I'd have really loved to have had both Wicks and Busch eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive. I've wondered whether, if Wicks hadn't gotten roasted in his last 3 starts, whether BA or pipeline might have top-100'd him. Oh well. I hope he wins ROY, just so I can be more bitter that we don't get a pick for him! Or, better yet, I'll just hope Busch or PCA win ROY, with Wicks coming in 2nd or 3rd! :):)

Love that.

Will be interesting to see if PD + Ferris can improve him over time. Having him eventually emerge as a high-end lefty starter with reasonable control, that would be so huge down the road. Whether as a premium trade candidate, or as a high-ceiling low-cost starter to slide into the rotation. Given the investment the Cubs made to get him, I'd love to hope he could aspire to more than a reliever with control problems. Hope the stuff and velocity plays up better than ever over time, but also that the control can get a little better and a little better, and eventually be not bad at all. Aram talks about the huge movement on some of his breaking stuff, too big to hit and too big to control. I often think of pitch-lab trying add more shape and movement to a guy's breaking ball. But could they perhaps be able to trim some movement off, and make it somewhat more commandable that way?

Tom, I hadn't seen/noticed this post before. those are some interesting thoughts from Breslow, and make good sense. I think some of that is relevant to discussion we've had re Santy's wildness. Do you have a link to the full article, in case it has comments beyond those you quoted? The mechanical markers, I wonder how well the existing Cubs D+D guys are with those versus other orgs? The mental component, I think that's very relevant not only to minor-leaguer guys but also to big-league guys like Little and Palencia. Obviously even Palencia can get hammered when they're sitting fastball and it's located badly, and Wesneski without location is HR-galore. But I'm guessing that Palencia could benefit by trusting and challenging the strike zone more. Both early in count, and when he occasionally gets ahead.

Important guy. Hard to guess how much his issues last year were fundamental capacity, versus health issues. This is only his second off-season in the Cubs development program, so not sure if they might have any tweaks to help with the off-speed stuff. While he's 24, between injuries and Covid he's still got <300 pro-innings. Probably more hoping than expecting, but you'd like to think that there could still be meaningful improvement and increased consistency in the future for a <300-innings guy. I'm a big believer in the value of good relievers. So I'd not minimize his potential value as a reliever... *IF* he can become a good one.

Did the chase and SwStr% profile like that in 2022? He only had 17 AB in majors, all spread out. So I'm not sure his are any more predictive than PCA's. In Canario's case, given the injury comeback, I'm not sure any of his stats from last year, majors or minors, are necessarily representative. Seemed to me he was only just starting to find his groove when they called him up to watch and get un-grooved again. But yeah, maybe that's just who he is, always has been, and always will be. Cubs could kinda use a guy who out-performed the more cautious projections.

Aram's got a 30/30 for Canario's hit tool. I'd like to hope it's not quite THAT bad? Hard to succeed well with a 30-hit. I'd like to hope he's maybe underestimating what Canario's hit might be, down the road? But yeah, that would be the scouting evaluation why a guy with his HR's and OBP/OPS isn't rated more highly. I wonder if the Cub PD see it as that hopeless? HR's are hits, of course, so getting a bunch of HR's helps sustain BA and OBP.

I love Aram's take that Murray can be solid/average defensively at 3b. If defense doesn't hold him back, that widens his window of opportunity. At present, I don't see a perfect solution at 3B. So will be interesting to see how that shakes out long-term, or if they end up going outside to fill it. Murray. If glove is average, offense/OBP could enable him to be a good contender. Shaw: Bat appeals. Can arm be adequate enough, or will that preclude? Triantos: Contact appeals, unclear whether some power will come or if he'll always be more Hoerner-esque offensively. *IF* his hitting becomes pretty desirable, with work can his defense ever become acceptable? Or will he always be a two steps below Murray defensively? Rojas: Could be the perfect all-around solution eventually: good-arm/glove/defense guy who also hits and with a little power? Pretty young, though, so still years to wait, and ability to hit in majors is still lots of projection. Vasquez: D would be great. Could he ever hit enough to actually be a primary guy at 3B? Rivera: D excellent. Probably can't hit, but *IF* his offense surprised us, his defense certainly won't be a showstopper.

That's an important role. Interesting that Hoyer is going with some very young, relatively inexperienced guys for these two key positions. Kantzler is 33. Otero, the new pitching boss, is 30. Kantzler's transition seems an uncommon one, to jump from big-league staff, #3 hitting coach, to minor-league PD boss. I'm guessing both must be impressive personalities to have advanced so quickly. Houston has seemed on cutting edge of PD and hitting ideas, so maybe Kantzler has some insights that will be helpful for some of our guys and their challenges? Young guys with a lot of hunger and ambition can work really hard and pursue ideas, so I trust Cubs were thoughtful in both hires. In Kantzler's case, I'm kinda glad to reach outside the organization. For so much of Theo's reign, it seemed all he did was hire Boston guys, and the organization ended up being way behind the curve. So I kinda think it's refreshing to bring in outside guys. Hoping both end up being really sharp guys who have favorable impact.

Thanks for link to BA podcast, Tom. That was a fun listen; as you say he was quite effusive about the players, the Cubs PD, and how quickly the rebuild has taken place. That was a fun and encouraging listen.

No rip on Santy, he's got some nice qualities. So sure, he's a prospect. Lots of pitchers are. *IF* they get a lot better, lots of guys could become productive in due time. He's got a shot. I like his stuff, for sure. You mentioned "Strength, conditioning, coordination, skill, and experience built over time". Santy turns 22 this winter. I hope he's a beat-the-odds guy, and that with more experience mlb-useful control will come. Sometimes that happens, Randy Johnson had Santy-level walk rates as late as age 23. Hopefully Santy will be an unusual late bloomer. But my observations, after many years following prospects: Santy's walk level at age 21 was significantly worse than the average 21-year-old minor-league, or Carolina leaguer. So his improvements in strength, conditioning, coordination, skill, and experience have more catching up do to than the normal turning-22-year-old in the minors. I hope that happens. Santy's walk-level at age 21 is significantly higher than was true for the vast preponderance of major league pitchers back when they were 21. So again, he'll need more experience-based improvement than was true for the preponderance of major league pitchers. I hope that happens. You rightly mention that you can teach an individual to throw an object in a general direction long before you ask them to hit specific spots in that same direction. But usually guys have been throwing objects for years. If a guy is less accurate than his peers at 21, it's unusual that his accuracy will catch up later. I hope Santy is the unusual guy who does.

Thanks, Tom. Thoughts in paragraph one are well taken. I'd thought your previous post might be leading in a different direction, so this clarifis. "Strength, conditioning, coordination, skill, and experience built over time"; that's well stated.