craig

Point taken that present roster lacks an obvious (or good-defense) backup 1B. For now I think it's unlikely that Moises would be the first choice if Busch gets injured, but it's not impossible, and the choice now might change come July. Happ is short, 6'0". Berti and Shaw are shorter, 5'10"; Moises is shorter yet. None of has played hardly any 1B. If Busch is out, I'm guessing we're dropping from top to bottom quartile defensively at 1B. Yes, there are a couple of short 1B who get used, and are decent. Moises might be a unicorn and be decent there, despite both his short wingspan and his unique physique. No harm in no-evidence wishing for a unicorn. But I don't see any reason to expect it's likely. Guess I'm just kinda resisting the mindset that 1B-defense doesn't matter. Or that any good hitter who's inept at other positions, you can just move him to 1B and he'll be fine. Imagine the following extreme hypothetical outcomes, and their relative probability for Moises. Primary catcher. Defense develops into good enough (and bat). Primary 1B. Defense becomes good enough (and bat). Primary DH. Bat, including HR power, becomes good enough to support this role. #2 catcher. Defense good enough for 30-60 starts (and bat). Starting catchers rarely start 120 games, so #2 catches a lot of games. #2 1B. Barring injury, starting 1B rarely site more than 15 games. So a #2 1B Lesser role. 4A guy, maybe? Back/bubble of the roster guy? Part-time DH/PH/3rd-string-C/3rd-string-1b type guy? Primary-anything: DH >> C >>> 1B. (Odds of having good enough defense/per-position-bat combo at 1B least probable. ) Adding enough effective-HR-power to be a good primary DH is more likely than odds of making it as a primary C or 1B. Fielding/hitting well enough to be #2 catcher is more likely than primary anything. Good #1 catchers are hard to find. #2 catchers always short on either defense or offense, yet they still typically start ≥40 games a year. If Moises hits pretty well, that may justify being a 30th-percentile defender. As you mentioned, 1908, the prospect of being #2 catcher (start 30-60 games), sub-average but not--awful at 1B (start 15 games), and bunchof-starts DH, even if not majority, games) and 45(C) + 15(1B) + 50(DH) = 110 starts. I think that's the path I most hope for. I guess I kinda think that improving into #2 catcher or a primary DH are really the two realistic pathways to making it as an asset. If he picks up an occasional game at 1B, that's nice. But a backup 1B with no other position, he's a heavy-usage DH or he's not a thing. In terms of short-term opportunity, Seiya is DH when Seiya, Happ, and Tucker are healthy. *IF* any of those three, or Busch, go IL, that would open 1B/DH. Perhaps Moises would be next man up. Or perhaps not, maybe we sign Bregman and Shaw would be ahead of Moises for that, or Caissie, or some vet. But yeah, *IF* Moises can explode into the best bat available; and *if* Shaw not Bregman is playing 3b; then it only takes one injury to any of Busch-Seiya-Happ-Tucker to open up a 1B/DH opportunity for somebody.

Complex prospect. Hard to guess how he'll progress, or how he'll fit in majors. Some thoughts. 1908, part of your thought process is that his bat is too far ahead of his defense. How good his catching could become is iffy in the first place, even if he could fully optimize it. But you kinda argue that he'll never be able to fully optimize it because his bat will put him in the majors before he ever gets the opportunity to optimize his defense. There is definitely merit to that argument. I admit I do wonder how quickly his bat actually will force him up? Will he be THAT good that he needs to be up as a bat-only pinch-hitter/DH? You mention that he projects more as a 20-HR guy than a true HR guy. Suzuki is the DH. He's got 2 years of contract. If Ballesteros is a 20-HR type upside guy, I don't really see that being a guy who will push Seiya off of DH for the next two seasons. And if he's just coming up as a pinch-hitter 3rd-string catcher, I'm not sure they'll use Moises on the big-league roster all that much over the next two years. Thus, I'm thinking he might spend most of the next two years in the minors, with two years of opportunity to advance his catching defense (and optimize his physique). Do I assume that will optimize his defense to be able to play big-league catcher? I have no idea. My sense is that he may be sub-average at every feature (receiving, blocking, throwing, framing.). No report I've seen has ever suggested that he's average or better at ANY aspect of big-league catching. But, as you say, catching is a skill that can improve with time and effort and good coaching. I don't know how far that improvement will ever go. But *IF* he gets most of the next two years to work on it, I think we'll have a better idea whether it's hopeless or whether he's become OK/not-bad. So, I guess I'm hypothesizing that his current bat isn't so compellingly good-and-powerful that his callup is too imminent to allow two more years of defensive development. Like I say, no idea whether 2, 5, or 10 years of defensive development will ever get him far enough to be big-league playable. Don't know, but I hope so for sure! Don't know how good his offense will become. A guy who hits .270 with 20 HR and some walks, that's kinda like 2024 bellinger. I don't think that's a guy who's a compelling, big-ticket DH. By contrast, if you hit as well as Seiya, .848 OPS, that's a really valuable DH. .281 average, 21 HR, he was still really valuable. And Pete Alonso, he's been ≥34 HR every year. He just got a big deal. My ramble is that there's a continuum of offensive production, and of HR-power. Where Moises ends up may impact whether he's a big-asset high-value guy even as DH-only, versus decent/good big-league hitter if he had a position, but as a DH-only not that valuable. A DH-bench guy kinda needs to have some positions, if he's not a compelling most-days DH. I've mentioned this before, but I'm really hesitant to assume that Moises at 5'9" or whatever, with no wingspan and no defensive range, could be better than pretty awful at 1B, one of the most important defensive positions in mlb. (1b's handle tons of challenging ground balls, with difficult throws to moving-target pitchers trying to cover the bag; handle tons of erratic pickoff throws; handle so many throws from 2B/SS/3B, many of which VERY hard to handle. Very important defenisve position.). Assuming that Ballesteros will be anti-awful at 1B is an iffy assumption. Thinking that he'd actually be average or better at 1B is probably harder to imagine for 1B than for C. Defensively, the difference between being 2nd versus 3rd catcher is huge. Few catchers catch 120 games, so there are a bunch of opportunities for 2nd catcher. But 3rd catcher, especially if he's 3rd catcher because he's liability? That's not really much of a thing, unless you're primary DH. Heh, too long! Summary: 1. He should get another couple of years of opportunity to improve as catcher. 2. I doubt he's ever going to get used much at 1B, for defensive reasons. 3. I doubt is bat is currently so awesome that he's going to be called up as a full-time DH for Cubs soon. 4. If he can't catch, and can't 1B, he needs to be REALLY good hitter, with more than 20 HR-power, to be a big-asset DH. 5. **Lots** of value for a 50-start backup catcher, who can hit, DH, and play an occasional game as a bad 1B.

Thanks much. So, about $67K plus Games. Yeah, the Games factor adds an unknown, no idea. To me Games + $67 doesn't seem like a huge shortfall. Don't imagine you can pick that up for nothing. But I'm guessing there probably is a team that hasn't spent out, and that it wouldn't take a major talent sacrifice to trade for what's needed. Or, maybe it's tough break, and Martinez just gets to choose. Settle for $700 or $750 or whatever is left post-Games, even if it's less than the reported $900. Or, maybe keep the reported $900 arrangement, but need to wait till next January. Or maybe Cubs/Martinez just accept that it didn't work out this year, that's business, and both sides go back into next year with a clean slate and no commitments to each other.

Totally agree for draft. Not seeing manifestation yet for international infielders. That's where I'm wanting to see things get way better. Sure hoping it's the "takes time", and that's about to kick in. I'm with Tom, want to get some hits from within the Yahil Melendez, Fernando Cruz, Derniche Valdez, Angel Cepeda, Adan Sanchez*, Ronny Cruz, Robin Ortiz, Juan Tomas, Juan Cabada, Wilfry De La Cruz, Cesar Lugo, Edgardo De Leon, Eli Lovich, Ty Southisene crop. (I know some of those were drafted, but I'm just copying Tom's good list of teenage position guys. We need to get some hits out of that bunch, particularly the international guys.).

By your numbers, how much over? Like, how much might the cubs need to pick up to make the reported deal? $200K? $75K? I'm wondering whether their close enough that it won't take a big deal to swing it, and that perhaps a few teams have slivers of sufficient amount still left. Like, maybe Canario has a mashing camp, but still just doesn't make the team. But some team with a sliver of international cash deals it for him? Or like Keegan has a good camp, and his velocity is up 1-2 mph as well. But he still just gets numbered out, so some team with even a sliver of international cash deals it for Keegan? Or something like that?

Jaims Martinez still not announced, correct? How much was his deal reported to be, $$-wise, and how much space do we think we actually have? Like, how much pool money would they need to add, to reach the original reported deal estimate? Like, pick up $50K in pool money in some end-of-camp trade, or something?

On Derniche, did we ever get any input for why he was suspended for so much of the season? Or is my memory crazy, and he was never suspended, he was just injured or something?

Yeah, with all the Latin teenage shortstops, who can guess which of those guys might emerge as real prospects? Not super inspiring that the last two big-ticket internationals, Fernando Cruz from last year and Derniche Valdez from previous year, can't even crack BA's top 30. And all the newer guys (Tomas, de la Cruz, Cabada from this month; Ronny Cruz, Southisene, from this draft; Melendez from previous draft) who are in that range. I don't imagine any of the scouts can know very well which teen infielder will actually hit or not. Perhaps Derniche will show up with more motivation and maturity this season, will make at least a little contact, and after he's on the field for a few weeks in AZ he'll jump ahead of all those other guys in scouts eyes? Same for Fernando, who knows? Seems like every scout who's had a brief glimpse at some of these guys, they all like somebody different. I just hope they don't all bust, which seems the Cubs norm with teen infielders.

I checked, Game 2 against Kansas City in the playoffs was Berti's first start of his career at 1B!

Brujan and Canario are both out of options, right? So, only way they can sub for PCA come a June interview is if they are still in the organization. Gotta either make the roster, or get derostered and have nobody claim them. Maybe Brujan will make it.

This is kinda more a big-league roster question, but you guys know all the prospects so would be better able to answer. Q1: If Busch were to get injured, do any of our prospects have 1B experience? I know Moises does, but as a short guy with no range and no catch radius, I assume he'd be terrible. Have Caissie or Alcantara or Canario ever played any 1B? For big-league guys, do you think Happ or Suzuki ever have? Just kinda wondering what we'd do depth-wise *IF* Busch got hurt, or if he's terrible. Moises? Johnny Long? Or is this maybe a depth problem, and one of Hoyer's last signs will be a 1B/3B/OF/DH type guy for 40-man? Or is this an obvious opportunity and you maybe sign some AAAA 1B-type guy and sell him on the opportunity that you're one injury away from a big-league callup? Q2: What's your guess if PCA was to get injured? Tucker? Canario, if he makes the roster or clears waivers and is still with the organization? Alcantara, and hope he can hit enough to be OK? Maybe Triantos will get some CF work as the season progresses, so down the line he might be a CF option if Alcantara's bat doesn't progress?

How big does a signing need to be to count against the pool? Doesn't that only apply to signing above some threshold? For example, if I subtract those under $50K, the >$50K listing above sum to 6.254, which would fit. Or is $20K at/above the threshold already?

Tennessee had park-friendly numbers, too. Relative to the league, at least.

Yeah, getting onto the AAA roster is super easy. Most interesting minor-leaguers aren't even draft eligible yet 40 guys on the big-league roster triple-A roster is reasonably big as well, so if there's a guy you like at all, who's been around long enough to be draft eligible, teams can put them there. So, the fact that Gallardo wasn't even placed on the AAA roster to protect him is kinda interesting. May reflect that his rehab hasn't gone great thus far? Or would it be too soon to have any clue whether it will be fully successful or not?

Thanks for link Tom. Very interesting, and gushy. One little note that surprised me was by the article author Todd Johnson, who wrote about Mathis: When did Mathis actually have his surgery, and isn't he likely to miss some time? Seems like he only had the TJ in mid-August, so I'd imagine he's not likely to be ful-go, even full-DH go, in spring, is he? Even in his August Instagram post, Mathis makes reference to "opportunity to live out my dream even if it may be delayed." Obviously missing last August was already being delayed, so maybe he meant no more than that. Anyway, I'll be thrilled if he's ready to go this spring. Or gets ready soon enough that we get a good look at him this season. In his instagram last august he wrote "But the Cubs have welcomed me and allowed me to join their organization the way I was." Not sure if that meant after he was drafted and he went to his physical, or whatever; or whether they knew "the way he was" even before they drafted him and paid him full slot. I'm guessing they didn't know. Cole Mathis (@colemathis7) • Instagram photos and videos WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM 585 likes, 22 comments - colemathis7 on August 15, 2024: "Not the way I envisioned visiting Chicago for the first time. But the Cubs have welcomed me and allowed me to join their...

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/orioles/samuel-basallo-694212 Pipeline seems to consider 1B as a reasonable fallback option. Moises' has no fallback but DH.

I'm not up on things, but Basallo lists as 6'4", Moises at 5'8". As 1908 says, 6'4" just looks like more big-time power. And for guys who might not be big-league defensive catchers, 6'4" fits 1B way better than 5'8"?

The only way the prospects are at their "highest value" now is if they stall or regress in future. They get "for-their-age" benefit, with presumption that they will improve. If Alcantara neither fills out nor hits more HR's, his value will decline. *IF* Triantos gets better, *IF* Caissie progresses, *IF* Alcantara starts to launch more often, then value won't decline. Future value may be in trade. Or may be as starters or bench players for the Cubs. But I presume that value will rise if prospects improve and manifest progressive improvement. Not-ready-to-start-now guys have less value than ready-to-start-now prospects. Triantos, Caissie, Ballesteros aren't quite ready-to-start-now.

One more thought. I think it was smart to put Triantos at 2B, and just let him work at that and improve there. Maybe that's a work in progress, and repeating that for another season is the best developmental path. But, I also wonder if some of the defensive gains he made at 2nd, might not also now carry over at 3B? And whether for this season, he'll get more starts at 3B to try to develop his capacity as a utility guy? Or maybe both 3B and OF, try to get more comfortable at all of them, so that if he was to make the team at some point during 2026, that serving as a multi-position bench guy would be something he could be fully ready for?

It might be, but I also don't think it needs to be triantos or Shaw. I think there is space for both. Cubs have so often struggled with crummy bench players who don't produce. Part of my vision for the farm group is that moving forward, we might have good hitters on the bench. When a starter needs a rest, you've got a good backup. Starter faces a bad matchup, play the sub. Starter in injured, you've got somebody, Starter in a slump, replace him for a while. I'd like at least one between Triantos and Shaw to have that capacity. Obviously Triantos has the arm for outfield, Shaw won't be a regular SS but he's got SS capacity. Hoerner's only got two years guaranteed left. Next winter might be a better time to evaluate whether Hoerner should be extended, or if Triantos and Shaw will become 2B/utility in some fashion. Other note on Triantos is the base-stealing. He was on pace for north of 50 steals before the injury. If all of those extra stolen bases were calculated into his ISO, we'd not be fussing. With the new rules, might he end up being a very productive big-league base-stealer? Could be some value added.

Q: The ground-ball data and the launch-angle data, that's all taken from his 86 AB at Iowa? Or does data from AA (and below) reflect the same issues? (Or qualitative observation?) I'm kinda wondering whether it's possibly small-sample issue, or is all real. For curiosity, is his groundball rate higher or lower than Alcantara? I'd patient with some of these guys, Triantos included. It's still too soon to know where his development might still go. I'm in no hurry to trade any of them. Triantos is still only 21. Obviously if a guy doesn't improve, the longer you wait the less value he'll have; but I'm thinking that if he DOES continue to develop and improve, the value will rise considerably. What we could get now might not come close to the value we might get next year... And what we could get now might not come close the value we might get by keeping him. Consider last year: He worked on his defense, and it got better. 1908, even if BA's enthusiasm is overstated, his perception today on his defense is way better than a year ago. Likewise the base-stealing seemed to emerge out of nowhere, nobody was discussing him as a big base-stealer last year. Point being, there were areas of his game that he worked on, and non-trivial improvements resulted. I'm hoping that will happen again, with ground-ball, with launch angle, with physical strength, with extra-base power; with exit velocity; and with continued improvement defensively.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5951131/2024/11/27/chicago-cubs-offseason-mlb-notebook/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=212065 Wrong thread, I know. But article says Ben Brown has been cleared for normal offseason throwing program. Having him both healthy and at his best could be a huge variable in the 2025 season.

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/solar-sox-vs-saguaros/2024/10/28/787551/final/box Not to be negative. But looking at today's box score, his OPS is only 3rd on his team, and the other team had a higher-OPS guy too. (One an age-24 CF, one a 21-year-old catcher with strong defensive scouting. Obviously as always Moises' has the "for-his-age" appeal. But every team in the AFL has one or more guys with numbers in his ballpark.). Young for age means a ton. In his league, he's 9th in OPS, 8th in average, 3rd in HR. Excellent for sure. Especially for a catcher, less for a DH.

I'm fine with Cam being that high. I'd rank him higher than 7th on my Cubs list. Shiny-new-toy over-rating is obviously possible, and his history is too short to know. So of course he may end up being significantly flawed once those flaws have time to manifest. But my feeling is that a big-power-potential guy taken in the first has a high ceiling. No evidence yet that flaws will limit. So I'm going to dream big dreams until there is reason to tone them down. Positional fit shouldn't matter to pipeline, but it does to me. Early input suggests that Smith can play a good 3B and has a big arm for it. The possibility of locking down 3B with a good-hitting power guy is appealing. The path for him seems very straightforward.

Interesting that Rojas made list. I wasn't sure that .245/.310/.336 with only 6 HR and 10 doubles would make a guy top-100. The writeup also questions whether he'll really stick at SS, or will move off. Encouraging that their scouting observation is favorable enough to still rank him that high.