craig

By your numbers, how much over? Like, how much might the cubs need to pick up to make the reported deal? $200K? $75K? I'm wondering whether their close enough that it won't take a big deal to swing it, and that perhaps a few teams have slivers of sufficient amount still left. Like, maybe Canario has a mashing camp, but still just doesn't make the team. But some team with a sliver of international cash deals it for him? Or like Keegan has a good camp, and his velocity is up 1-2 mph as well. But he still just gets numbered out, so some team with even a sliver of international cash deals it for Keegan? Or something like that?

Jaims Martinez still not announced, correct? How much was his deal reported to be, $$-wise, and how much space do we think we actually have? Like, how much pool money would they need to add, to reach the original reported deal estimate? Like, pick up $50K in pool money in some end-of-camp trade, or something?

On Derniche, did we ever get any input for why he was suspended for so much of the season? Or is my memory crazy, and he was never suspended, he was just injured or something?

Yeah, with all the Latin teenage shortstops, who can guess which of those guys might emerge as real prospects? Not super inspiring that the last two big-ticket internationals, Fernando Cruz from last year and Derniche Valdez from previous year, can't even crack BA's top 30. And all the newer guys (Tomas, de la Cruz, Cabada from this month; Ronny Cruz, Southisene, from this draft; Melendez from previous draft) who are in that range. I don't imagine any of the scouts can know very well which teen infielder will actually hit or not. Perhaps Derniche will show up with more motivation and maturity this season, will make at least a little contact, and after he's on the field for a few weeks in AZ he'll jump ahead of all those other guys in scouts eyes? Same for Fernando, who knows? Seems like every scout who's had a brief glimpse at some of these guys, they all like somebody different. I just hope they don't all bust, which seems the Cubs norm with teen infielders.

I checked, Game 2 against Kansas City in the playoffs was Berti's first start of his career at 1B!

Brujan and Canario are both out of options, right? So, only way they can sub for PCA come a June interview is if they are still in the organization. Gotta either make the roster, or get derostered and have nobody claim them. Maybe Brujan will make it.

This is kinda more a big-league roster question, but you guys know all the prospects so would be better able to answer. Q1: If Busch were to get injured, do any of our prospects have 1B experience? I know Moises does, but as a short guy with no range and no catch radius, I assume he'd be terrible. Have Caissie or Alcantara or Canario ever played any 1B? For big-league guys, do you think Happ or Suzuki ever have? Just kinda wondering what we'd do depth-wise *IF* Busch got hurt, or if he's terrible. Moises? Johnny Long? Or is this maybe a depth problem, and one of Hoyer's last signs will be a 1B/3B/OF/DH type guy for 40-man? Or is this an obvious opportunity and you maybe sign some AAAA 1B-type guy and sell him on the opportunity that you're one injury away from a big-league callup? Q2: What's your guess if PCA was to get injured? Tucker? Canario, if he makes the roster or clears waivers and is still with the organization? Alcantara, and hope he can hit enough to be OK? Maybe Triantos will get some CF work as the season progresses, so down the line he might be a CF option if Alcantara's bat doesn't progress?

How big does a signing need to be to count against the pool? Doesn't that only apply to signing above some threshold? For example, if I subtract those under $50K, the >$50K listing above sum to 6.254, which would fit. Or is $20K at/above the threshold already?

Tennessee had park-friendly numbers, too. Relative to the league, at least.

Yeah, getting onto the AAA roster is super easy. Most interesting minor-leaguers aren't even draft eligible yet 40 guys on the big-league roster triple-A roster is reasonably big as well, so if there's a guy you like at all, who's been around long enough to be draft eligible, teams can put them there. So, the fact that Gallardo wasn't even placed on the AAA roster to protect him is kinda interesting. May reflect that his rehab hasn't gone great thus far? Or would it be too soon to have any clue whether it will be fully successful or not?

Thanks for link Tom. Very interesting, and gushy. One little note that surprised me was by the article author Todd Johnson, who wrote about Mathis: When did Mathis actually have his surgery, and isn't he likely to miss some time? Seems like he only had the TJ in mid-August, so I'd imagine he's not likely to be ful-go, even full-DH go, in spring, is he? Even in his August Instagram post, Mathis makes reference to "opportunity to live out my dream even if it may be delayed." Obviously missing last August was already being delayed, so maybe he meant no more than that. Anyway, I'll be thrilled if he's ready to go this spring. Or gets ready soon enough that we get a good look at him this season. In his instagram last august he wrote "But the Cubs have welcomed me and allowed me to join their organization the way I was." Not sure if that meant after he was drafted and he went to his physical, or whatever; or whether they knew "the way he was" even before they drafted him and paid him full slot. I'm guessing they didn't know. Cole Mathis (@colemathis7) • Instagram photos and videos WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM 585 likes, 22 comments - colemathis7 on August 15, 2024: "Not the way I envisioned visiting Chicago for the first time. But the Cubs have welcomed me and allowed me to join their...

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/orioles/samuel-basallo-694212 Pipeline seems to consider 1B as a reasonable fallback option. Moises' has no fallback but DH.

I'm not up on things, but Basallo lists as 6'4", Moises at 5'8". As 1908 says, 6'4" just looks like more big-time power. And for guys who might not be big-league defensive catchers, 6'4" fits 1B way better than 5'8"?

The only way the prospects are at their "highest value" now is if they stall or regress in future. They get "for-their-age" benefit, with presumption that they will improve. If Alcantara neither fills out nor hits more HR's, his value will decline. *IF* Triantos gets better, *IF* Caissie progresses, *IF* Alcantara starts to launch more often, then value won't decline. Future value may be in trade. Or may be as starters or bench players for the Cubs. But I presume that value will rise if prospects improve and manifest progressive improvement. Not-ready-to-start-now guys have less value than ready-to-start-now prospects. Triantos, Caissie, Ballesteros aren't quite ready-to-start-now.

One more thought. I think it was smart to put Triantos at 2B, and just let him work at that and improve there. Maybe that's a work in progress, and repeating that for another season is the best developmental path. But, I also wonder if some of the defensive gains he made at 2nd, might not also now carry over at 3B? And whether for this season, he'll get more starts at 3B to try to develop his capacity as a utility guy? Or maybe both 3B and OF, try to get more comfortable at all of them, so that if he was to make the team at some point during 2026, that serving as a multi-position bench guy would be something he could be fully ready for?

It might be, but I also don't think it needs to be triantos or Shaw. I think there is space for both. Cubs have so often struggled with crummy bench players who don't produce. Part of my vision for the farm group is that moving forward, we might have good hitters on the bench. When a starter needs a rest, you've got a good backup. Starter faces a bad matchup, play the sub. Starter in injured, you've got somebody, Starter in a slump, replace him for a while. I'd like at least one between Triantos and Shaw to have that capacity. Obviously Triantos has the arm for outfield, Shaw won't be a regular SS but he's got SS capacity. Hoerner's only got two years guaranteed left. Next winter might be a better time to evaluate whether Hoerner should be extended, or if Triantos and Shaw will become 2B/utility in some fashion. Other note on Triantos is the base-stealing. He was on pace for north of 50 steals before the injury. If all of those extra stolen bases were calculated into his ISO, we'd not be fussing. With the new rules, might he end up being a very productive big-league base-stealer? Could be some value added.

Q: The ground-ball data and the launch-angle data, that's all taken from his 86 AB at Iowa? Or does data from AA (and below) reflect the same issues? (Or qualitative observation?) I'm kinda wondering whether it's possibly small-sample issue, or is all real. For curiosity, is his groundball rate higher or lower than Alcantara? I'd patient with some of these guys, Triantos included. It's still too soon to know where his development might still go. I'm in no hurry to trade any of them. Triantos is still only 21. Obviously if a guy doesn't improve, the longer you wait the less value he'll have; but I'm thinking that if he DOES continue to develop and improve, the value will rise considerably. What we could get now might not come close to the value we might get next year... And what we could get now might not come close the value we might get by keeping him. Consider last year: He worked on his defense, and it got better. 1908, even if BA's enthusiasm is overstated, his perception today on his defense is way better than a year ago. Likewise the base-stealing seemed to emerge out of nowhere, nobody was discussing him as a big base-stealer last year. Point being, there were areas of his game that he worked on, and non-trivial improvements resulted. I'm hoping that will happen again, with ground-ball, with launch angle, with physical strength, with extra-base power; with exit velocity; and with continued improvement defensively.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5951131/2024/11/27/chicago-cubs-offseason-mlb-notebook/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=212065 Wrong thread, I know. But article says Ben Brown has been cleared for normal offseason throwing program. Having him both healthy and at his best could be a huge variable in the 2025 season.

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/solar-sox-vs-saguaros/2024/10/28/787551/final/box Not to be negative. But looking at today's box score, his OPS is only 3rd on his team, and the other team had a higher-OPS guy too. (One an age-24 CF, one a 21-year-old catcher with strong defensive scouting. Obviously as always Moises' has the "for-his-age" appeal. But every team in the AFL has one or more guys with numbers in his ballpark.). Young for age means a ton. In his league, he's 9th in OPS, 8th in average, 3rd in HR. Excellent for sure. Especially for a catcher, less for a DH.

I'm fine with Cam being that high. I'd rank him higher than 7th on my Cubs list. Shiny-new-toy over-rating is obviously possible, and his history is too short to know. So of course he may end up being significantly flawed once those flaws have time to manifest. But my feeling is that a big-power-potential guy taken in the first has a high ceiling. No evidence yet that flaws will limit. So I'm going to dream big dreams until there is reason to tone them down. Positional fit shouldn't matter to pipeline, but it does to me. Early input suggests that Smith can play a good 3B and has a big arm for it. The possibility of locking down 3B with a good-hitting power guy is appealing. The path for him seems very straightforward.

Interesting that Rojas made list. I wasn't sure that .245/.310/.336 with only 6 HR and 10 doubles would make a guy top-100. The writeup also questions whether he'll really stick at SS, or will move off. Encouraging that their scouting observation is favorable enough to still rank him that high.

Dumb questions from a guy who is neither a coach nor a SABER expert. How adjustable is "too-many-groundballs"? Like, is that something that can be coached away and adjusted away? Or would it take a significant change in how a guy swings to change that, and the cure might be worse than the disease? Alcantara has been a pro for 6 years receiving pro coaching and input. Every player is constantly trying to adjust and optimize his game and production. I often think that guys are pretty smart at figuring out what's the optimal compromise for themselves. Perhaps Alcantara has done that, and has already deduced that his current approach, ground-balls and all, is better than any adjusted approach? Are there many examples in pro ball for guys who have flipped from ground-ball guys to air guys? Maybe that kind of change happens often, with great successful profit?

What kind of velocity does Gray have these days? In earlier days I thought the projection was that he'd mature into good velocity. Has that never really happened? Or is it decent?

Long a K, no BB, hitless day. Crazy!

Moises doesn't pull them often, but I love those when he does.