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craig

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Everything posted by craig

  1. Obviously all of this will come clearer tomorrow. They don't spend many picks on guys who they can't sign. So obviously we'll see how many HS-type overslot guys they take tomorrow.
  2. I'm understanding you to be saying that the saving might be MORE than $750, correct? Or that your $4.0 estimate might be low, and the Cubs might pay variably closer to slot?
  3. *IF* Conrad gets full slot, will you like the pick? Greg suggested he'd be a bit underslot, and now most board posts tonight seem to assume underslot. But usually, Kantro has gone slot, or above, with his other 1st/2nd-round guys. So I wonder if he won't get full slot, just like Wicks and Shaw and Cam got? Seems every year we talk underslot, but Horton is the only first-round underslot. Bust Burl the only 2nd-round underslot, 5 years ago. We'll see, of course. But if I had to guess between slot and $750 sub-slot, I'd probably guess with the full slot?
  4. amazing, but big Midwest League has only 8 guys with >10 HR's. Rojas at 10 is within the top 16 HR hitters in that league. Keep them coming. Caissie and Alcantara both out tonight. Is Caissie hurt again?
  5. Moises in a 26-way tie for 59th-85th in HR's in the International League. Most others have fewer AB's. (part-time guys; missed games to injury; promoted from AA; promoted to majors). So his HR-rate is probably not as high as volume 59th-85th. Young-for-league is beautiful. Declining in HR's, rather than increasing with age; declining in HR rather than increasing as he repeats a level, is not super beautiful. Maybe HR's just aren't going to be much of his game? May need to live on his catching and BABIP? Not many DH's don't hit HR's. Obviously development is not linear. Maybe this year he's making good strides defensively? Maybe next year he'll make HR strides? Or maybe this post will jinx him, and he'll hit a couple more this month?
  6. The value of having two years of options is pretty significant, seems to me. Yes, I'd love to see 1st-round pick Wicks be good enough to lock down a starting spot as a good regular starter, at pre-arb costs. For sure I'd love for him to just be flat-out good on a contending Cubs team. But in the world of pitcher injuries, and limiting innings, and the appropriately high priority on having depth, having a capable options guy at Iowa could be really good. Like, I'd love for Wicks to be good-4th-starter capable, yet have enough other good guys so that he can be 7th man on reserve at Iowa. Lots of advantages to that versus spending money on vet starters that might be mediocre or washed; but with no options their contracts kinda lock them into the big-league roster. Credit to Cubs scouts this year, for sure, for getting Boyd and Rea at bargain prices. Who knows where we'd be without having signed Rea.
  7. Wasn't watching live, but nice that Jordan Wicks had some effective innings. I haven't been much of a believer, some posters here have liked him more. But it's nice that he's stacked a couple of good Iowa outings, and now his big-league return outing was good. It would be so nice if he could emerge as a capable big-league pitcher, both for this year and for future. Or, maybe if he could show enough in his next couple of appearances so that he could be a key value piece in a trade. Will next year be his last options year? Or two more left?
  8. Flanagan. Nice game! He's been good in his couple of starts. Would be so fun to have a guy like that work out.
  9. I know he's not pitching today. But with the promotion for Schlafer, and the recent hot streak he had at South Bend, does anybody have any recent scouting info on how he's doing it? And whether he has the arm/stuff to actually be a big-league prospect? Just curious.
  10. Donzo, not to bag on Brody. But he missed the last half of 2023. He missed 2024. He's missing 2025. Now he's finally gone for surgery, so he'll presumably miss 2026. It could become a really fun comeback story in 2027, if he comes back i and re-emerges as a prospect. But I'm guessing that missing most of four seasons, and coming back post-surgery, is a pretty long shot.
  11. Mule and Erian for sure. Drew Gray, maybe? Riley Martin, Luke Little, Neal perhaps possibilities from the reliever side?
  12. Cabada! Tom should be here, he was a Cabada supporter. :):). Cubs have signed a lot of million-dollar bonus-baby infielders since Gleyber Torres, but Jefferson Rojas is the only one until now who's been able to hit. Wouldn't it be fun if Cabada was just a true-blue hitter with some power? Would sure love it.
  13. Speaking of Ramirez, he's way more interesting with some HR's and slug. Just checked his splits: All 6 HR are off RHP, and his slug is .467/.340 vs RH/LH. Sample sizes are always smallish vs LHP, of course.
  14. Pure developmental guy. Who knows. Turns 20 at start of August. At Myrtle, he's kinda got some mostly ugly numbers: 18K/1HR 18K/3BB 5.0 GO/AO on balls in play K-rate over 50%, 18K/32AB. So, we'll see. Young guys can develop. Hope he does. Some don't, and a lot of guys with contact problems don't grow out of that. Patience and hope.
  15. Can somebody give me the updated scouting info on Erian? He was injured so started the season late, correct? What was his injury? Reports have been that he has good velocity, touches upper 90's, correct? Any idea whether that's velocity with movement, electric? Or maybe more straight and not that super hard to hit? (Pearson-esque, perhaps?). Any idea on his breaking pitch(es)? he hasn't been a high-K guy thus far, so I assume he hasn't really mastered a killer breaking pitch? But, that's development for you, work in progress? He's kind of a fun developmental story, seems to me. Rookie league, 2022, 11.6 ERA. Myrtle, 2023, 6. 5 ERA, 45 walks in 69 innings, very wild. His walk-rate has declined each season thus far.
  16. Anybody have info on Nick Dean's velocity? Draft reports had him as an 88-91 type of guy, but made reference to touching up to 93 late last spring. Any update or increase? All the reports mention the good changeup. Changeups can be great, but that's a hard pitch to control every outing. Hadn't expected Dean to be pitching in AA this quickly. And 16K/3BB in his first 3 starts, 13.1 IPS, is pretty good in the eensy-teensy small sample. Would be fun if his velocity played up enough to have a shot.
  17. Thanks for Riley Martin notes, Jason. Will be interesting to follow him moving forward. He actually signed for $1K. He's been a high-K guy for a couple of years now. But he walked a lot of guys, and he was variably inconsistent. Would have a bunch of high-K outings, but then some bad ones, high-walk ones, would mix in. Seems like the results recently have been more consistent. But also have have a higher strike-percentage? I often look at the strikes-pitches numbers in box scores. He's recently been sequencing a lot of good ones, with high strike/pitch ratios, per my subjective observation. Not sure whether he's just locked in, for a while, and this too will pass? Or whether he's better figured out what works? Earlier, I think he was a multi-pitch guy. Maybe if he's largely simplified to fastball/curve, maybe it's easier to throw strikes? Kinda crazy, Cubs have so many bad bullpens over my memory, it's kinda hard to envision a scene where a guy could be running as hot as Riley, but still get no opportunity (yet) because there aren't really any glaring weak-links in the big-league pen.
  18. Nice to see Flanagan with a good outing!
  19. A friend was the Iowa game on Sunday. he said Neely topped out at 94. Same game Little pitched, said stadium gun had Little at only 92-93. Pearson 98, Fulmer 92, Omaha pitcher 99, so probably not a super slow gun. Neely being barely faster than Fulmer surprised me.
  20. Agree. I think he's completely off the table.
  21. Agree, lot of volume of options. No bad contracts. No vets are overwhelming problematic contracts. Taillon-Boyd-Shota-Brown-Horton+Steele make nice starting 6. Wiggins impending 7th. Rea-Assad-Sanders-Birdsell-Wicks give a lot of depth. Many young guys have lots of options-years left, so should be able to keep guys situated for Iowa yo-yo for a while. Many young guys who should keep the rotation budget friendly for a while. It's a pretty good setup. Lets extend Tucker! Taillon, Boyd, Shota contract, rotation, modest salary. Rotation worthy. Brown, Horton. Young, cheap, ceiling, rotation worthy. Steele in waiting, rotation worthy. Wiggins high-ceiling rotation option, lots of cheap years and option years. Rea, Assad, club-control modest contract depth gy. Sanders, Birdsell, Wicks cheap deep-depth guys. Iowa yo-yo guys. Trade options.
  22. Any more thoughts on that? What could you envision for him as a pathway to big-league success? Pitch-labs are always fiddling, so maybe there's a way. Beats me. Totally reinvent himself? Go Brad Keller, somehow add 3-5 mph and become a power pitcher? Reinvent into a side-arm slinger? Or do you think the existing guy is close, doesn't need to reinvent, just needs to get a tweak more consistent and locate a little bit better, and he might make it work?
  23. I feel kinda conflicted. Is it great? Obviously no. But my expectations were so low, that I'm pleasantly surprised. In January, I probably saw Horton, Wiggins, and Birdsell as pretty much the only pitching-prospects of any relevance or ceiling. And had lots of worries for Horton, and for will-he-be-wildman Wiggins. So I think the Horton-Wiggins progress has been very nice. Birdsell injured, Wicks a bust, those are disappointments, yes. But having Gallagher, Sanders, and Kipp being even interesting, those are some very pleasant unexpected surprises, for me.
  24. Thanks, Cal, that's really helpful. 92-95 with a low arm slot seems fine for a guy who's going to live on his breaking pitches. I looked up earlier Bryan Smith note on Kipp back in April, he wrote: "There’s a lot of Colin Rea in what Kipp is showing out there, if you want an idea of the potential we’re talking about. He can support heavy breaking ball usage, probably able to get away with only 30-40% fastballs and not have it hurt him."
  25. So, there's Wiggins in one class. Gallagher, Birdsell, Sanders. Kipp. Noland. McCollough exists, too. How would you rank those guys? Obviously with Birdsell and McCollough, if they resume pitching, hard to guess how the injuries might impact delivery/stuff/location. Mule from the HS group. Florentino from the Latin pipeline?
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