craig

I don't see it this way at all. I don't see this as a "conservative", high-floor draft at all. Very many of the picks had injury factors. Injured guys have low-floors. I think they actually gambled a lot on risky injury guys in order to get higher ceilings. Likewise I think some of the injuries may delay some players? So, I'm not sure they're really prioritizing advanced, be-ready-soon guys. Conrad hasn't played much top-level college, and won't start till next spring. Coppola has only like 40 innings of college baseball. Jerzembeck ~30 innings? I don't even know whether either of those two will be 100% by next spring, or might still burn a bunch of 2026 on rehab? If Franklin had TJ only months ago, he won't do much of anything till 2027. So I guess I'm thinking with all the injury pitchers, that doesn't feel like either high-floor or fast-track philosophy. Every draft pick every year has various risk/reward, ceiling/floor unpredictabilities. I don't see this group as being all that different. I think perhaps lots of the injuries changes the nature of some of the risks. Every one of the injury guys, the injury provides risk; but the "ceiling" is that *IF* the guy turns out healthy, you might get variably excellent value? A lot of the injury stuff compromises scouting looks and developmental progress. How much healthy Coppola has anybody ever seen? Jerzembeck? Hartshorn? *IF* these guys get or stay healthy, they may have some pretty good major-league upside. But with so little game action, super unpredictable what they will be future. So safe/conservative/advanced/high-floor, I don't really see that for most of the picks. Kepley is kinda different. He hasn't been injured, whatever his ceiling may be, it certainly does not include power. Reid, he maybe hasn't had the injury history, but when a guy is ranked 209 by pipeline, and doesn't have velocity or breaking-ball yet, that's obviously another scouting pick. Definitively a risky ceiling pick, risk that velocity doesn't add, and ala Ryan-Jensen he never figures out a slider or curveball. Wing seems high risk. Skinny guy, hasn't thrown hard for long, hasn't pitched much. Recept pop-up guy, who knows if that will be sustainable? But easy to dream that his potential upside could be high. Hartshorn, bit ceiling, but injuries alone make super high risk? Like any HS power hitter, who knows if they can actually handle pro pitching? So yeah, to me, other than maybe Kepley, this draft seems very heavy on risky shots on guys with good ceilings but risky-low floors.

I wonder how much NIL factors into things. I don't follow college baseball. I dont' imagine that every recruit at U Minnesota is getting significant NIL. But in SEC, do they generate enough revenue, or have enough huge fans that a guy like Caleb Barnett is going to get >$150K in NIL? I just have no idea how that works, or the amounts. Or if that only goes to some really top-200-rated guys, not guys who aren't that high profile? But yeah, Kantro used to save like $75 overage for a 3rd day guy, $225 or whatever. I wonder how persuasive that would be to a HS prospect? I'm guessing even if a guy isn't going to get much NIL to start at Marist or Liberty or whatever, that with the portal, *IF* he has a good freshman season, then he can portal to an SEC/ACC school and perhaps get a good NIL payoff then? So yeah, just wondering if it isn't harder to get a HS kid to go pro if he isn't getting 4th/5th round money?

Signing deadline is the 28th. Draft thinking is often best understood after the signing bonuses roll in. Often we (I?) have ideas about who might be under or overslot, which prove variably false. last year, didn't know HS Ronny Cruz would be an underslot, or how far over Southisene and Lovich would go. I think many posters thought Cole Mathis might be an underslot; not a penny. Two years ago, some of us guessed Wiggins to be a potential underslot, given his bad college record, wildman scouting reports, and TJ. I thought senior Josh Rivera might be a large underslot, but ended up only $147 under. I'd thought Zyhir might be a pretty substantial overslot. Rosario, too, maybe? But instead, Wiggins was the biggest overslot, Hope was only +250, Rosario was slot, and the bunch of college picks after Rivera were all within $24K of slot. 3rd-day overslots have varied. In 21 and 22, there was only a single 3rd-day overslot, and those modest ones of only $75 and $85, nothing dramatic. Hope at $250 was only 2023 guy, then Lovich at $500 much bigger, plus $70 for Mangus. So, I have no idea this year. Is Barnett going to get signed, with significant bonus? If so, that will enlighten Kantro's strategy. Or maybe Jerzembeck? Kantro has gone overslot in 11th round each of last two drafts. Maybe Jerzembeck isn't HS, but he was highly regarded out of HS, and looked good at SC before injuries. Maybe Kantro and Swoope love his stuff, and think that *IF* he can get healthy and right, that he might have a really high upside? *IF* he gets a variably significant overslot, that too might enlighten Kantro's strategy. I tend to think any of the college guys in 1-10 might be variably sub-slot, and Greg has suggested intel that Conrad is significant subslot. But yeah, we'll see how significant that really will be, and then how the others go. Maybe they won't sub-slot as much as we assume? Conversely, we have no idea how much Kantro loves either Wing or Snell, or how far over he's going to get them. Maybe they're just $1M guys, no more than a Southisene or Mule or only a hair above a Paciola. But, what if Hartshorn end up $1.6, or even more? That might enlighten Kantro's strategy. All fun to wonder. But we'll get a much better idea once the numbers come out. Kantro's valuations are often radically different from the media rankings, and IMO have usually proven to be very well informed and wiser. So yeah, as always, I'm kinda trusting that his decision-making is pretty thoughtful and justifiable.

Heh heh, that I think is relatively implausible. They spend to the max every year. Have every year since the rules have been in place. Kantro has either spent it all already, or else is still going to.

Yeah, I'd assume ≥$1M for Wing. I'd assume ≥$1 for Hartshorn too. But *IF* they were each $1.0, it would take barely $1M to cover that. With almost $500K in overage, it seems Kantro should have way more than $1M to spend on superslot. So either some more superslots ahead, or else Cubs like one or both of Hartshorn a LOT, more than $1M.

10 more rounds, so no idea what Kantro has. But all three of yesterday's picks seem variably underslot, with Greg speculating that Conrad is going WAY underslot. Reid certainly projects to be significant underslot. Then this morning, 5 of 7 guys were old senior-sign guys, who'll turn 23 before Christmas. Each has some baseball ceiling, so I'm not suggesting they'll be $1K guys like Riley Martin was. But sure would expect there is some underslot happening from those guys. plus of course the $481 overage allowed. I trust Kantro on this. But unless Hartshorn is getting some huge superslot, it would seem Kantro has probably assembled more superslot capacity than Wing and Hartshorn alone will absorb?

Kantro hasn't spent heavily on HS pitchers. Mule and Gray have been the only bonus guys. McGwire was a 9th rounder, but Rujano at $210 was the only guy above $200K. Hopefully Wing won't join the Mule-Gray TJ bandwagon.

He was pick 121, he was rated #87. The wide range between mlb #87 and BA at #201 suggests how widely varient these media evals can be. And probably how widely varient team scouting evals can be as well. Sounds like a very late riser.

I think more modest swings than "big" swings. Kantro has gone overslot on Gray, Paciolla, Mule; Zyhir HOpe; Melendez; Rosario; Lovich; Southisene., Obviously none of these were "big" swings, like 1st-round-type guys. But a lot of good talent if you can scout wisely.

Kepley is the really surprising pick to me.. Kantro seems to like that Southisene/Bateman profile. But spending overslot $1.0 on 4th round and $180 on an 8th-round guy is different from a 2nd-round guy with $1.7 slot. Hard to have a good big-league OBP without getting lots of hits. As a sub-.300 hitter in college, he may face analogous challenge that Bateman and Southisene have struggled with. Walks and HBP are not the best carrying tools offensively. But, we shall see. Maybe he can be kinda Hoerner with walks and HBP.

Obviously all of this will come clearer tomorrow. They don't spend many picks on guys who they can't sign. So obviously we'll see how many HS-type overslot guys they take tomorrow.

I'm understanding you to be saying that the saving might be MORE than $750, correct? Or that your $4.0 estimate might be low, and the Cubs might pay variably closer to slot?

*IF* Conrad gets full slot, will you like the pick? Greg suggested he'd be a bit underslot, and now most board posts tonight seem to assume underslot. But usually, Kantro has gone slot, or above, with his other 1st/2nd-round guys. So I wonder if he won't get full slot, just like Wicks and Shaw and Cam got? Seems every year we talk underslot, but Horton is the only first-round underslot. Bust Burl the only 2nd-round underslot, 5 years ago. We'll see, of course. But if I had to guess between slot and $750 sub-slot, I'd probably guess with the full slot?

amazing, but big Midwest League has only 8 guys with >10 HR's. Rojas at 10 is within the top 16 HR hitters in that league. Keep them coming. Caissie and Alcantara both out tonight. Is Caissie hurt again?

Moises in a 26-way tie for 59th-85th in HR's in the International League. Most others have fewer AB's. (part-time guys; missed games to injury; promoted from AA; promoted to majors). So his HR-rate is probably not as high as volume 59th-85th. Young-for-league is beautiful. Declining in HR's, rather than increasing with age; declining in HR rather than increasing as he repeats a level, is not super beautiful. Maybe HR's just aren't going to be much of his game? May need to live on his catching and BABIP? Not many DH's don't hit HR's. Obviously development is not linear. Maybe this year he's making good strides defensively? Maybe next year he'll make HR strides? Or maybe this post will jinx him, and he'll hit a couple more this month?

The value of having two years of options is pretty significant, seems to me. Yes, I'd love to see 1st-round pick Wicks be good enough to lock down a starting spot as a good regular starter, at pre-arb costs. For sure I'd love for him to just be flat-out good on a contending Cubs team. But in the world of pitcher injuries, and limiting innings, and the appropriately high priority on having depth, having a capable options guy at Iowa could be really good. Like, I'd love for Wicks to be good-4th-starter capable, yet have enough other good guys so that he can be 7th man on reserve at Iowa. Lots of advantages to that versus spending money on vet starters that might be mediocre or washed; but with no options their contracts kinda lock them into the big-league roster. Credit to Cubs scouts this year, for sure, for getting Boyd and Rea at bargain prices. Who knows where we'd be without having signed Rea.

Wasn't watching live, but nice that Jordan Wicks had some effective innings. I haven't been much of a believer, some posters here have liked him more. But it's nice that he's stacked a couple of good Iowa outings, and now his big-league return outing was good. It would be so nice if he could emerge as a capable big-league pitcher, both for this year and for future. Or, maybe if he could show enough in his next couple of appearances so that he could be a key value piece in a trade. Will next year be his last options year? Or two more left?

Flanagan. Nice game! He's been good in his couple of starts. Would be so fun to have a guy like that work out.

I know he's not pitching today. But with the promotion for Schlafer, and the recent hot streak he had at South Bend, does anybody have any recent scouting info on how he's doing it? And whether he has the arm/stuff to actually be a big-league prospect? Just curious.

Donzo, not to bag on Brody. But he missed the last half of 2023. He missed 2024. He's missing 2025. Now he's finally gone for surgery, so he'll presumably miss 2026. It could become a really fun comeback story in 2027, if he comes back i and re-emerges as a prospect. But I'm guessing that missing most of four seasons, and coming back post-surgery, is a pretty long shot.

Mule and Erian for sure. Drew Gray, maybe? Riley Martin, Luke Little, Neal perhaps possibilities from the reliever side?

Cabada! Tom should be here, he was a Cabada supporter. :):). Cubs have signed a lot of million-dollar bonus-baby infielders since Gleyber Torres, but Jefferson Rojas is the only one until now who's been able to hit. Wouldn't it be fun if Cabada was just a true-blue hitter with some power? Would sure love it.

Speaking of Ramirez, he's way more interesting with some HR's and slug. Just checked his splits: All 6 HR are off RHP, and his slug is .467/.340 vs RH/LH. Sample sizes are always smallish vs LHP, of course.

Pure developmental guy. Who knows. Turns 20 at start of August. At Myrtle, he's kinda got some mostly ugly numbers: 18K/1HR 18K/3BB 5.0 GO/AO on balls in play K-rate over 50%, 18K/32AB. So, we'll see. Young guys can develop. Hope he does. Some don't, and a lot of guys with contact problems don't grow out of that. Patience and hope.

Can somebody give me the updated scouting info on Erian? He was injured so started the season late, correct? What was his injury? Reports have been that he has good velocity, touches upper 90's, correct? Any idea whether that's velocity with movement, electric? Or maybe more straight and not that super hard to hit? (Pearson-esque, perhaps?). Any idea on his breaking pitch(es)? he hasn't been a high-K guy thus far, so I assume he hasn't really mastered a killer breaking pitch? But, that's development for you, work in progress? He's kind of a fun developmental story, seems to me. Rookie league, 2022, 11.6 ERA. Myrtle, 2023, 6. 5 ERA, 45 walks in 69 innings, very wild. His walk-rate has declined each season thus far.