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craig

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Everything posted by craig

  1. craig
    Are you meaning the starter, or the reliever? Romero pitched the first 4; Martinez-Gomez the 5th-6th. Maybe you're meaning the second guy? Or are they maybe both pretty fast?
  2. craig
    I wonder, what would be the disadvantage of having Shaw move another inch or two (or more) closer to the plate? Naive unsophisticated thought is that he could cover the outside corner a little bit more easily, without committing oppo so early. And if as a result they challenged him inside a little more often, thinking he's more vulnerable, he might get more inside-half pitches that he could better pull and drive.
  3. craig
    https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker/2025/all/team/cubs All numbers now listed. For the back 10, two slots, two small overslots, and 5 variable underslots. I'd love to know the logic for back-10 underslots, given no impact on cap-space? Like, why is Kantro offering $140 to Knox, rather than full $150? Why not just go full $150 for all of those underslot guys? Where does $10K drop-in-buck drop into? If Knox said, "not going for less than full $150", would Kantro have picked somebody else? Did Kantro take a lesser guy to save $10K? I don't really get it. Are all these scouts really calling lots of guys and haggling over $150 vs $140 vs $100? Why not just offer them all the full $150? Hunsacker, why $45 vs $50? And why the sequence? Not counting Franklin, college guys went 150-100-150-100-45-180-140-50. I see no pattern. One might think more valued guys would get more and draft higher, I'm also a little curious about rounds 8-10 sub-slot guys. Book agrees for $100K. He wasn't confident he could get $150 slot in rounds 11-20? Did Cubs call ten other guys first who they maybe liked better, but they all said "No, I'm going to bet on myself, I think I can get $150 in rounds 11-20, rather than settling for $100 now"?
  4. craig
    For the other "day 3" guys, do you have bonus info? I've got: slot for Eli J (#11) overslot for Franklin/Poteet (#14 and #17) Underslot for #15 Noah Edders ($100) Any ideas for #12, 13, 16, 18, 20?
  5. craig
    Nice to have this all wrapped up. I have to say, I kinda like the draft rules with the snappy signing deadlline. Get it done!
  6. craig
    The following always has comprehensive coverage of Cubs draft info. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1R9hzhGo0Q_29g2bfa2yQwHYqNN799JzkCP7HyK-XCKY/htmlview?pli=1#
  7. craig
    Cal, I've got analogous numbers for yours. To put it in a different way, with 2-sig-figs roundoff they've got $3.6 to cover Wing, Hartshorn, and any teens overslot. They like those two guys a LOT. Hartshorn is getting at least $2. I don't have links to source this, but "A quote from Hartshorn. "“I fly out to Arizona in the next day or two to get a physical and once I pass my physical, I will look into signing and then I will report in a week or two to Arizona,” he said." Earlier he said that he had turned down several offers in the high ones (presumably the high one millions) but he held out on his number until the Cubs finally agreed with it and drafted him. His agent called him to say that the Cubs had agreed to his "number".
  8. craig
    I'd wondered if Jemberzeck might overslot. Post above says no. (I'm kinda disappointed; I'd hoped they'd love him enough to motivate some real overslot.).
  9. craig
    Thanks for input, guys. I'm guessing that there's a shot a little more velo will come with age and development? But as a short slender guy, he doesn't seem like the obvious velocity-projection candidate. Obviously the Cubs go with a lot of finesse low-velocity pitchers, Taillon, Imanaga, Steele, those are all below-average velocity guys. But definitely it would be fun if Florentino grows into some and gets up nearer big-league average.
  10. craig
    What kind of velocity does Florentino have? Well below average, yes? Not sure it matters if it's always about the movement and break, not the speed. .
  11. craig
    Heh heh, for me it's more "I don’t see how anyone could put Hernandez in the top 10z"
  12. craig
    Bertz, thanks much for that fastball-whiff data. Yeah, super exciting if Hartshorn is just a gifted contacted hitter, with big power 2nd. The "hitter" part is always the big essential for any power hitter. Obviously contact on fastballs is one thing, contact on movement is different, so we'll see. But fun to dream. Cal, thanks for note on Jerzembeck. Yeah, who knows if he'll ever be healthy; if so when; and how much velo-improvement and pitching development relative to freshman year is possible and ahead for him. But man, in the unlikely event that you get the prospect he was back then, with the hypothetical that neither the surgeries nor the time lost compromise his stuff or his development, he could be a really intriguing prospect. We shall see!
  13. craig
    Good thought. I like your guess better than mine! Could easily get that extra $0.2, whether by triming Wing or Jerzembeck's over; by increasing the under on the 7-10 guys; or increasing the under on Reid and Kepley. To some degree, I almost feel like the bigger Hartshorn's bonus, the more I like the draft and the draft strategy?
  14. craig
    Wow, no kidding do I like that! A super-power guy with superb contract rates? Boy, do I ever love that! Dumb Q, from a non-super-saber-smart boy. What kind of whiff-rates are typical on fastballs? I'd have had zero context for whether that was impossible or routine.
  15. craig
    I get the small-man profile analogy. But just because Bateman and Southisene haven't hit doesn't mean Kepley won't. Late July, Bateman has 6 XBH with 0.040 ISO, only 13 SB. Hopefully Kepley just hits more hits, more doubles, and does more steals. Law or somebody said Kepley's exit-velo/hard-hit were only barely below average. Media rankers, who talk to scouts, all like him; that was never true for Bateman. That Kantro burned a 2nd-round pick and ~$1.5M (or whatever) suggests he thinks he'll Kepley will get hits. I'm going to try to believe until he shows we shouldn't.
  16. craig
    Silly add-on note. We all use different considerations when ranking, between upside, risk, proximity, etc.. One of my "gut" inputs is "how much would I mind if this guy got traded, or had a career-ending injury...". I'm kinda feeling like Conrad and Hartshorn, both of these guys have the possibility to become good, long-term asset middle-of-the-lineup assets. (I'm guessing Hartshorn is going to get a signing bonus that's quite high, and reflects Kantro's interest...). I don't quite have that same feel for Kevin, based on his bat, so I don't have "could-be-trading-away-a-star" feeling with him. I totally get it, that if we have Hartshorn for a while, and he's K'ing like Felix Cruz and Tomas, I might lose hope kinda abruptly. But not until some flaw gets exposed.
  17. craig
    I'm thinking I'd put Hartshorn into my top-10, right after Long in my list. Ahead of guys like Hernandez, or Birdsell. I tend to like to put guys who have high ceiling and haven't failed yet variably high, ahead of guys with know limits or proven areas of weakness. Popping him right into my top ten. Guy who might have big-time easy power, but might also possibly be a true-blue hitter besides, I like that possibility. Ahead of Birdsell and Triantos and Tomas type guys.
  18. craig
    I'd put Conrad at 5, ahead of Alcantara and probably Long also. Kantro talked him up as 5-tool guy, who can play center, and might be a serious hitter with serious power. Will he actually click? I don't know. But Kantro's 1st-round bats have jumped into Cubs top-5 pretty quickly, so I'm thinking there's a legit chance that Conrad will be really good. I like Kevin and he's got a chance to be a good player. But his swing is long, and he's never really excelled a hitter, and he's never hit many HR's. So personally I'm going with Kantro's choice who hasn't failed yet. I'd rather trade Kevin that trade Conrad, myself. I'm also putting Conrad ahead of Long just for the speed and positional value. And potential to be a big HR-hitter seems larger, too.
  19. craig
    I like the Hartshorn review, "easy plus raw power" but "with a good approach" is encouraging. Power is always fun, of course. But lots of strong power guys who can't get to it. Any reviews encouraging the idea that he might have a good approach and actually be a good hitter who can get to his power, I enjoy those.
  20. craig
    I thought it would be fun to guess how Kantro would divvy up his dollars. This is total guesswork, for sure, but just trying to have something hypothetical. Overslots: Wing, $1.2 (~$0.6M overslot) Hartshorn, $1.4 (~1.0 overslot) Jerzembeck, $0.3. (~$150K overslot) Underslots: Conrad: $4.0K ($750 under) Kepley: $1.4. ($280 under) Reid: $700K ($165 under) Picks 8-9-10: $175 each (~$90K under, combined). ($175 is still better than 3rd day slot, so they'd each have motive to agree.). $482 overage. That's totally guessing, of course. But just trying to guesstimate what kinds of superslots Wing and Hartshorn might be getting, and what it would take to cover them. This is also kinda assuming Greg's inside dope on Conrad taking a big underslot is true. I like to take a guess in advance, just for the fun of it. My $1.4 for Hartshorn would match bottom of round 2 (last two picks have slot just under $1.4). $1.2 for wing would match 2nd-round comp slot; 1st pick of round slots at $1.08. So both of my Hartshorn/Wing numbers would pay them better-than-3rd-round slots.
  21. craig
    In the old pre-cap days, they'd often draft a couple of college-bound guys in rounds 30-40 as reallocation contingency, in case somebody drafted higher decided not to sign or failed a physical. Given the health history for Conrad and Harshorn, perhaps Barnett pick is contingency *IF* one of them red-flags their physical?
  22. craig
    One more thought... Years ago, there was a sense that if you draft a college pitcher, there wasn't much projection or developmental upside. But now with all the pitch-labs, that isn't reality. College pick often add velo, and often revise or develop different pitch shapes. The way pitchers remake themselves, seemingly at almost any age, I'm not sure that being young is that necessary for developmental potential? Particularly for college pitchers whose development has been delayed by injury, perhaps they might still have significant undeveloped developmental potential?
  23. craig
    Yeah, if a college guy stays healthy and is actually good, you're right that they should get to AA within 2-3 years, that's true. Not sure the Cubs draft is unusual, though? 4 HS picks. Given that HS players don't sign for the $150 slot, how many teams are drafting/signing many HS guys after the first 5 rounds? I just checked for volume of HS picks in recent Kantro drafts: 2025: 4 2024: 3 2022: 3 So in a sense, I don't see an unusual ratio. When you don't have a big pool, and not many HS guys want $150 slot, I think this may be kinda normal.
  24. craig
    Thanks, Bertz. That's kinda what I was guessing too. That even if he's "pitching" next summer, it's mostly late-start, and mostly "pitching" to regain strength and confidence in his arm, rather than "pitching" to get guys out. Kinda guessing that 2027 might be his first year really pitching healthy/strong and throwing all his pitches to get outs and win, not to say "the important thing was to get some innings in". An interesting thing that might indicate faster: I think I read that Jerzembeck had entered transfer portal. Not sure I'd do that if I figured to miss all spring college season anyway? So guessing he maybe at least hoped/aspired to be pitching next college spring. Cubs usually are pretty appropriately carerful, though.
  25. craig
    Jerzembeck is a pick I'm very interested in. My prototype for 3rd-day 11th-round overslot is young, projectible HS guy. Hope or Lovich. But while Jerzembeck is already 22, I still envision him as being hypothetically a high-ceiling guy, *IF* he can get fully healthy, and *IF* health and maturation eventually make him stronger an faster than he was as a high-end HS prospect, or an SEC freshman. I'm really curious whether he's going to just be a $150 slot guy, or if Kantro likes him enough to overslot him some. If so, by how much? That might hint at how much he likes Jerzembeck. If he had stress fracture in elbow, and 2-screws installed as part of the treatment in February, I wonder how fast that could rehab? Ready for a mostly normal season next spring/summer? Or perhaps largely a slow, cautious, Mesa rehab summer, and maybe not pitching minor-league box-score games till Spring 2027? Beats me. But would sure love a happy story for him and the Cubs.
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