craig

Tom, thanks for link to the Ethan Roberts article. Is there any sense for why his results didn't transfer up to Iowa? He pitched 22 innings for Iowa versus 32 in AA, but gave up more hits (19/16) and almost as many walks (8/9) at Iowa in basically 2/3 of the innings. *Just a fluke, and he had a couple of off-games control-wise? Or is there a hint that better hitters neutralize him a little bit, and his AA success might not translate? *I'm guessing it's mostly small sample-size fluke? But sometimes guys with somewhat lesser stuff can't get by as well when they are "off" their game. Over a 2.1-inning 3-game stretch at Iowa, he gave up 4 walks and 7 earned runs. Not sure it applies, but I think sometimes finesse pitchers below AAA are willing to throw fastball strikes, even if location sometimes drifts into hittable parts of the strike zone, because hitters don't punish the mistake fastballs. When willing to throw fastball strikes early, that sets up K-counts, where chase pitches get chase K's; plus when willing to throw fastball strikes when behind, that limits walks. Win-win for K/BB ratios. But then sometimes against more dangerous hitters, guys can't afford to throw as many fastball strikes inside the edges; they get behind more; and their chase pitches cause less chase. The "Micah Bowie" syndrome, for those of you old enough to remember the player. Then sometimes confidence and rhythm deteriorates, too, and command slips, too.

AGree and disagree. Agree that Kilian is on a different planet from Velasquez, and AFL helped to confirm it for us. At time of trade, there was not scouting consensus that Kilian had quality big-league fastball. Fangraphs, for example, had him as a teens-level prospect for the Giants, and kind of like a 4th-round draft pick finesse pitcher. Then he didn't show anything in his two outings for Cubs, and went Covid. So, to me coming after the trade-time scouting reports, and then disappearing, it wasn't really clear what we had, or how good of a prospect he really was. In fact, it wasn't even entirely clear that he was the primary prospect in the Bryant trade, for all we knew Canario might perhaps have been as valued as Kilian, and I didn't know whether he might not be more of a Keegan Thompson Cory Abbott type prospect. But now after the AFL, we've gotten lots of reports on his stuff, and it's obvious that his velocity is big-league legit, and that with his sinker/cutter/4-seamer/sinker/curve, that he's got a big-league arsenal. So it seems that he's been fully affirmed as having a big-league arm with big-league stuff, and a legit chance to be a solid big-league starter. Velasquez started and finished at a different place. I think the AFL has confirmed that he's got big-league power, if he can get to it; and that some of his improvement is legit. Kilian was affirmed as a serious big-league prospect. Velasques I think is now affirmed as a major-league possibilty. But the odds of him ever being a league average or asset starter isn't nearly as high as for Kilian. But, I think a few months ago I wouldn't have given him any consideration; now he's worth considering as a possibility, even though still an improbable one.

Thanks for that review. My previous uninformed impression had been that he's viewed as "meh" defensively, arm included. This review reference having a lot of assists, and having a reasonable arm, which I hadn't appreciated before. The possibility to be a respectable corner outfielder is interesting. (Although whether this review is accurate on things defense, who knows...). I hadn't been aware of the extreme pull-orientation. We know, of course, that big-league pitchers are good at attacking guys with trends in any direction. I do admit I'm not sure some pull-orientation is bad, though. Guys with strength and bat speed, pulling the ball over the LF fence is a very nice approach, perhaps. (Heh heh, to some degree I wonder whether the Cubs haven't done some of their hitters some disservice by trying to coach them to go opposite a lot, and to let the ball get deep into the zone instead of getting in front of it and pulling it hard early. Addison Russell had his own issues both personal and hitting-wise, but I thought he was one of those guys who was a pull hitter with good pull power, and when they spend so much time trying to make him oppo, he didn't actually have the power to hit HR's oppo, and he ended up losing the HR power which was the one batting quality he was good at.) So maybe having a guy who's a comfortable good pull-hitter is a good thing, not bad?

Thanks Cal and Greg. Very interesting. The distinction between college-tuition-now versus college-tuition-assistance *after* a career fails is interesting. I admit I'm a little disappointed in one way. I'd thought maybe he's skip the 3rd quarter each year, and effectively miss almost none of the minor-league spring-training=plus-season. Cubs seem fairly serious about the process and the prospect. Pretty cool. I love the uniqueness and creativity. Obviously the odds are remote. But it would be such a cool story if he worked out, and developed into a good big-leaguer years down the road.

Drew Gray 5K in his two innings. 9K/1BB threw his first four innings. On draft day, few of the media rankings had him top-200, and weren't sure if he'd pitch or hit, or be a wildman. For the moment at least, easy to be more enthused on stuff, value, and control than on draft day. Fun.

Bain pretty bad tonight. Thanks for Schlafer video. A lot of these guys, it's so much about consistency. Bain, Schlafer, Hodge, on their good nights they're good. But some bad nights can be pretty bad, too. Hope with time is to get more consistent and find ways to work around when the good stuff isn't clicking.

Speaking of Killian, anybody know what's happened to him or why?

Devers is 163K/45BB over his career thus far. 6'3", 21. Would be fun if he emerges as a real prospect.

I hope so. I recall almost no info or discussion about him when drafted, or since. I thought at draft he was maybe a high-80's guy who was projected to maybe get faster given his size. But I've almost never heard or read anything about him. Longenhagen had 49 guys on his list, but Hodge didn't make that top-49 list. But yeah, *if* he really is already a mid-90s strike-thrower at age 20, that would seem a great project for the pitch-lab guys to work with, if true.

Porter Hodge is doing very well at Myrtle. 6K/0BB in 5.2 shutout innings, only 77 pitches, 52 strikes. His composite Myrtle numbers are skewed by a crummy first appearance. Fun to have a young guy progressing well. His K/BB/HR at Myrtle has been excellent. BABIP >.360. Maybe coincidence and bad luck? Or maybe a guy whose stuff isn't that hot, but he'd rather throw a not-that-special fastball for strikes and let them hit it, rather than to nibble and walk? Will be interesting to see how he finishes out the season, and then sooner or later to get some more scouting info. Big kid who's only 20, kind of fun to imagine some stuff projectability left for him.

Anybody know what's up with Caleb Kilian? Hasn't pitched since Aug 20. Injured? Deep Covid? Innings maxed? (100IP pitched.) Sent to pitch lab to work on developmental stuff? Maybe he could have pitched more, but they wanted to shut him down so he can be fully rested and be able to work seriously hard in pitch lab on developmental stuff in the fall? Just hoping he isn't injured already...

Leigh signed for 50k. Thanks.

Last night Watkins had the 6K/2IP outing. Previous night it was Zach Leigh with 6K/2IP. He's at 9K/3.2 IP. Did we ever get a signing bonus for him? The full $125K slot for a 16th rounder? Or was he more of a discount guy? Watkins was 8th round, but got the $125K amount that 13th, 14th, and 15th rounders got. Olivo the 17th rounder was $75; Hambley the 18th rounder was $200. Leigh is the only draftee who I never saw a number for....

Heh heh. Not that it matters, but I don't think I understand some of his numbers. 4.2 IP = 14 outs, 13 K's would suggest only one out came by other means. But milb.com lists him with a 1.0 GO/AO. If he's only retired one guys via a batted ball, how could he have a 1.0 GO/AO? So, maybe that means he had a wild-pitch type K where the whiffer reached, so that allowed him two batted-ball outs, one in air and one on ground? Stats list 4 hits and 1 BB. If he's K'd 13, maybe one of them reached anyway, plus he's gotten both a flyout and a groundout to account for the 1.0 GO/AO, plus he's allowed a BB and 4 hits, how can his total PA be only 17? 13K + 1 groundout + 1 air-out + 4 hits + 1 BB, that's like 20 PA. Did 3 guys gets outed on the bases via DP and caught-stealing or something? A fun collection of weird numbers. Fun with rookie ball.

Tom or others, do you have scouting info on Porter Hodge? Big kid, 20, obscure Utah high school background. His ERA for the season looks blah. But he's been inconsistent. After a disastrous first appearance for Myrtle, he's stacked 3 variably good outings. 14K/4BB/7H/10IP. 6'4" 230 listing doesn't make a guy a power pitcher, but it would be fun to hypothetically end up with him emerging as a big, strong, power-pitching strike-throwing rotation guy.

Tom, have we gotten scouting info on Nahas? Are you concerned about his mongo HR-rate, or is that fluke or not a concern? 13HR/78 IP, yikes. I've mentioned before, but I'm never quite sure how to process minor-league HR rates. High ones are ALWAYS a concern. But *if* a guy is working on a developmental pitch, which is true for every minor leaguer, maybe the developmental changeup or curveball he's going to hang a few, which end up HR's. That may not mean that 2-5 years from now he'll be hanging those pitches as often or that the HR's will be as problematic future? But major leaguers hang them too, and get punished; so too many hangers minors might be a portent of too-many-hangers in majors too. How many HR's are off fastball? If the fastball doesn't have enough life, and gets whacked when it isn't located perfectly, that's a worry sign. Don't know enough about Nahas to understand why he gives up so many thus far.

Schlaffer, Hodge, and Reid combine on a 13K/0BB night for Myrtle. Howard got 2 hits, including a double. Reid has been pretty interesting. Carraway gave up a 9th-inning game-losing HR. But he pitched 2 innings, that was his only hit, and he only walked 1. His walk rate has been pretty consistent has been perhaps making teensy progress. His monthly BB/IP: May. 10/7 June. 14/6 July. 8/6 Aug. 9/9 Sept: 1/2 So, in a sense there's a little bit of a favorable trend going on there...

Leeper is at 35 innings for the season. If that's his innings limit, that's a pretty low limit.

Little 2 perfect innings, 3K. Hasn't been scored upon yet for Iowa. Composite 2.5 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 33/28 K/IP, and 3.0 GO/AO. I'm guessing when his control is OK, his stuff is useable too. How often the control can be there, hard to guess.

Caissie seems to have very little leg kick in the three pitches we've seen.

That Caissie hit was fun to see. Seemed he has a pretty high set. Not a big leg kick on that one. The Cubs have had a lot of scoop hitters; I wonder if a setup like that might be more conducive to hitting fastballs above the waist?

Stevens, the big Cuban outfielder, has 6 HR in 24 games, and a .960 OPS. Obviously all the other Mesa fascinating prospects are teenagers with projection, and he's already turned 22. So, probably not going to be a real prospect. But I'm not sure how much baseball he's actually played. Maybe the over-age factor isn't as strong a red-flag as in years past? When the Cubs originally signed him for $300, he was originally reported as a pitcher in some sources (Bleacher Nation, for example.). That might suggest he'll have a good RF arm.

Very fun to have Triantos hitting. It would be so fun to have a true-blue hitter.

Tom, do we know anything about Rodriguez stuff-wise? He was outstanding in DSL and given starts and innings as an 18-year-old, which usage often indicated projected if not present stuff. Then he was used and decent in AZL at 19. Now he's been good, but not used heavily, it's not like he was in rotation from the start. Plus he wasn't advanced from AZL after doing fine there two seasons ago. Not sure it adds up. Was he hurt in between?

Has little been injured, or just doing developmental and pitch-lab kind of stuff?