craig

Thanks for the clips from Estrada. Helpful. I like your perspective, Cal, that really he's had one injury that didn't get resolved successfully initially. Not sure he's any more likely to suffer another than any other post-surg guy. As you say, throwing some innings and getting pitches in is attractive for his development regardless of eventual role. But I admit I am pretty interested in him particularly as a starter, because I have the perception (possibly unjustified) that he's got a shot to be a strike-thrower. In a system packed with wildmen, I like the concept of some rotation guys who can throw strikes. So Estrada and Gallardo have a lot of interest to me for that reason.

I don't have record of wild pitches. But just for walks and HBP that create baserunners, Sanders has 29 wild things in 41 innings, to go with 6 HR's. Pretty bad-looking line thus far this season. Disappointing season for him.

think he had a 2-inning outing previously. My recall, and his season stats show 5 IP in 4 games prior to today which confirms. It would be curious to see whether they'd stretch him out and start him at all? Or if he's strictly a relief guy?

If the milb box-score is correct, Jeremiah Estrada is getting stretched out, coming back for his 3rd inning. 5K in his two perfect innings, but now walks the first guy in inning 3. Would be fun if he'd emerge as a real prospect.

Good game for Bain. Still pretty wild. 6 wild things (3BB, 2HBP, 1 WP) in his 6 innings. Will be interesting to see whether his control improves somewhat as he piles up innings over the season. Herz also back to his no-hit style. Wild again, 6 wild things in 5 innings (4BB, 1WP, balk). Bigge can't get through his debut inning, gives up 3 runs in 0.2.

Gallardo question. Does anybody have current info on what kind of velocity he's got? CubsWin, you've got the milb TV capacity, yes? Do you or anybody else with that have any scoop for us? My recall is that pre-Covid, he was kind of an 88-91 type guy, kinda Mills-type velocity. I'm thinking this spring from a Twitter video, or maybe it was from Az Phil, there was reference to one pitch that touched 95 or 96, perhaps? Not sure what if anything that might mean. 1. A guy can rear back and let it rip for the speed gun, with no control and nothing resembling the type of throws he makes in actual games when trying to get outs. 2. Everybody has some fluke velocity pitches. Anybody with median 90-91 velocity probably throws a 96 at least once. 3. Guys who have been kind of building with plenty of rest for 18 months sometimes are a lot stronger than a guy is after 30 pitches in a game, or after a month of pitching rotation work as Gallardo has now done. June pitching after 6-7 starts may not match the max-velocity displayed back in April. So, I guess I'm just trying to ask what he's got velocity-wise now, a month into the season? Is he a guy who's routinely pitching 90-93, and can pop a 94-95 when he lets it rip? Or more typically in the 88-92 range, with the spot 94? Kind of in the Arrieta range, maybe a bit faster than Mills, a little slower than Trevor Williams? Or is he perhaps pretty regularly working fastballs in the 91-94 range, and a 95-96 will show up almost every game? I realize of course that he's still only 19 and won't turn 20 till late in season. So it's possible that he's not at his career-max yet anyway. But just trying to figure whether he's a below-average-velo guy who'll need to be an artist and to develop some really special offspeed pitches? Or if his fastball is already perfectly average, and actually has a chance to be somewhat faster than the normal big-league rotation fastball. Plus with more control?

I don't think it matters that much for a pitcher, particularly an off-speed pitcher. For power pitchers, I think a guy might maybe get away with living on fastball against weaker hitters, and be more content living off the fastball instead of working on offspeed stuff he'll need in majors. But for an offspeed guy, I assume Herz is already mixing his pitches and practicing all of them, regardless of level. The plate's the same size and distance in Myrtle and South Bend. Herz knows, sees, and feels when his curve is doing what he wants it to do and is going where he wants to throw it. So in terms of developing his ability to throw the pitches consistently, I doubt A- versus A+ vs AA makes much difference for Herz developmentally. Tom, I did see what you saw, though. I think all of the 4-5 K's in the video from last night were breaking balls. One was almost certainly a bad pitch, a high loopy pitch that kinda curved over the top of the zone and was taken as strike 3 on a bad call by the ump. Pretty sure Herz didn't want it to do what it did, and knows he got away with a bad pitch and a bad call. Others were chase breakers. I'm curious what Herz is doing earlier in counts? It's great to throw chase breaking balls and get chase K's, that's how most big-league K's work, too. But, you can't get chase-K's until you've gotten two strikes. I assume he's throwing a lot of fastballs for strikes to set up the chase K's, without either missing a lot and walking guys, and without getting his fastball whacked earlier in the count. The inability of low-minors guys to hit fastballs is one reason why it helps to move a breaking-ball winner up, though? So maybe promotion will be pretty helpful for him? Guys without great fastballs may be unafraid to throw fastballs for strikes, maybe fat strikes, to set up their chase K's. But then when they reach the majors, they're scared to throw the fastball in the zone, and have a harder time getting to 2-strike counts. For example, a guy gets to a 1-2 count in the minors and throws a chase curve or two and gets the K'. Maybe in the majors the same guys instead gets to 2-1 counts, and throws the same two chase curves, but what was a minor-league K becomes a big-league walk. For me, I would NOT promote Herz for a while, because doing so might disrupt a good groove, and might confuse cause-and-effect. Most likely he's stacked some good games, but hot doesn't always stay hot. Probably if you give him 6 more starts at Myrtle, he's going to dip off of the great wave he's on now, and things won't go quite so great. We'll know it's him, not the level of competition, if his performance dips somewhat. But if they promote, and he has some wilder games, then the tendency might be to think it's because of the better batters, when it may be just coincidence.

Interesting opportunity for Deppermann to get a start.

Wow. Glad he's not injured! :):)

I'm largely saying that neither you nor I nor Dorey know how he'll play out. He may have average or better control, and become a star starter. He may settle in as a star reliever. His potential ceiling is very high. Or he may have enough control inconsistencies that he's never a star in either role. Who knows? I don't, neither do you. Lots to hope on, little to be certain about. The limited analogy to Samardz was simply two guys with great arms and high ceilings entering the pros, neither with settled and polished control of their offspeed. In neither case could you know after 30 innings in A-ball how well or how quickly their offspeed usage would eventually shake out, or whether they would end in rotation or relief.

I don't follow the college game that much, so maybe he was a control artist in college. I tend to think minor-league results are more predictive of big-league profile. As a pro, I think Jensen's control is a legit issue to consider and wonder about. It's only 29.2 innings, 12 of them in 2019. But in 29.2 innings, he's got 20 walks and 6 HB. So, putting 26 guys on base via wildness in 29.2 innings, that's ~8 guys per 9IP. That's wild. This season it's been better, he's put 10 guys on in 17.2 IP, so that's basically 5 guys per 9IP. But even on his career-best outing yesterday, he still created 3 wildness baserunners in 5 IP. 1. Walks and HBP are one quantifiable measure of wildness. That's just one collection of data points. 2. Observation and qualitative scouting is another. Cal noted that he's been 95% fastball in his effective starts. CubsWin distinguished control from command. Draft-scouts were mixed on his control. AzPhil has observed control issues. Seems pretty widespread that there are observational uncertainties about his command and control. 3. His 5 starts have been inconsistent. Three have been excellent. Starts 2,3,5 combine for 15K/2BB/4H/13IP. Those are really nice numbers. Other two games were bad, 4BB/3HR/3.2IP. Inconsistency between good and bad starts almost certainly points to inconsistent control, at best. Or perhaps to inconsistent usage of pitches that lack control? Cal suggested 95% fastball in the good games? Maybe the bad games he threw more curves, without control, and hung a few and suffered accordingly? If you can't control it, hanging a few curves and sliders is perhaps where the HR's come? Again, I'm not dismissing his potential. I'm just assuming that where his career goes depends on where his control and command go. If 2 starts out of 5 he's got no curveball, it might be bad. But I'm sure he was amped for his opening start, and since then had had only one bad game in four outings. One bad outing this early stands out, but maybe he'll be stacking good ones consistently from here? He's got the whole summer, and seasons ahead, to figure things out, to improve his control, to determine what works, or to figure out how to still compete on days when curve or slider isn't sharp. That's what the minors are for. Hopefully he'll start stacking good starts with increasing repetition and consistency. No purpose in rushing it. Samardzija had the strong arm, but did NOT have consistent minor-league success for years. 6 seasons in the minors, 1.7 K/BB, only 6.5K/9, 4.4 ERA. We'd always hear he was working on something, split, curve, slider, or change, but for years it didn't click and I was a skeptic. But he eventually figured it out, and became a high-K major leaguer. Lot of searching and improvising to find what worked for him, and to increase his consistency. Jensen has lots of time to figure it out.

Thanks, that's helpful. Obviously consistent control will be a while coming, *IF* it ever does. But it sure would seem that he's got the stuff, *if* he can locate it relatively often. Twenty years ago, people liked "big, strong" starters, and were hesitant to project a shorter slimmer guy for rotation, back when they wanted starters to give 7 innings or maybe even more on good days, and to still get 6 on average days. And they thought short/slim guys would tire with that workload. But now in the twice-through-the-order 5-innings-is-just-fine era, I wonder if there is less hesitancy about a smaller guy being a rotation weapon? The twice-through mindset may help Jensen stay in rotation.

Yeah, making me nervous. Given that he'd been stretched out enough to go 4 innings in his previous start, it made me nervous when he got pulled mid-inning last game at only 3.2.

Jensen can't finish the first. Scattered 3 walks and a HR in his 0.2, pulled at 34 pitches.

Thanks for mentioning that. Yeah, he's been stacking good outings after his first one or two.

Great to have a strong night for Jensen. Only 16 balls in five innings. Love it. Reid another kinda good night, 3K/2IP. Myrtle eventually loses, but lots of hits.

Thanks, cal, at two levels. Didn't realize that Phil updated that list, relative to spring training type lists. Helpful resource for future, thanks for the link! Nice news that Clarke, Burgmann, Bigge, and Schlaffer all list as being healthy. Schlaffer was a guy I'm very interested in. Interesting, and disappointing I guess, that Phil lists him as a reliever.

Thanks Greg. Helpful to know. Interesting that they're hoping McAvene can recover without surgery. Of course, often that means you try it for a coule of months, hope it works, but then do the surgery later. If so, that might mean next year lost too, so that would be three straight years with no pitching. Hopefully the guy bounces back eventually. I'd just assumed Thompson was serious and would be a surgery guy. *IF* he's actually back in a month, and able to get into pitching shape by July, he could still get some box-score action this summer.

Reid 4K-1hit 1.1 IP. 12K in 6.2IP. Was surprised he made a full-season roster. No pro experience, had only 48 innings of college relief work at a small-college NAIA level, and it seems like most of our A-ball pitchers are older than Reid at 22. Might be a guy to keep an eye on. His college coach now works for the Cubs, I think.

I've probably missed this, but have you guys tracked down a bunch of the pitchers? Braylin: came in out of shape; had Covid, either before or after he came; want to bring him along slowly given his complex delivery and control challenges, and probably given the stress that his high velocity probably causes. So no necessary long-term health/arm concerns. Franklin: Had an injury of some sort. Has been throwing again? No surgery or anything major. Was fine as of last fall, because Dorey was still free to talk enthusiastically about him back in January. Expectation is that he's had a setback, but with no necessary long-term issues? McAvene: 60-Day DL, per AZ Phil. Anybody know why, or if it will be a surgery or not? Cruz and Patterson are surgeries, we know that. Clark? Bigge? Brugman? Tyler Schlafer?

Thanks! I'll want to remember that for every low-cash signing. Always possible....

Agree, unfortunately the bonus is the best indicator or prospect-hood. When is the last time the Cubs have signed a guy for ≤$50K who's ended up becoming a serious prospect? Probably somebody I'm forgetting, I'm not sure how much Manuel Rodriguez got, for example. A generation ago Juan Cruz in the 90's was a low-price sign? But usually when a guy signs for a teensy bonus, there's reason.

12/22 for Howard, 10/16 for Nwogu.

Tough start to the night. Gallardo gets a start, but lasts only one inning and fills the stats line with 2 walks, 3 hits including a HR, and 3 runs. Through three innings, Strumpt has already racked up 3 errors.

Do we have any scouting info on Peyton Remy? Nice opening line.