craig

Thanks for keeping the Az Phil updates coming. Fun.

Don't think Morel is going to make it, unfortunately. Has some appealing qualities. But guys who can't hit never make it; hitting is a gift that if lacking is never learned. Morel was 29/0 K/BB at Eugene in 91 AB.

Thanks for links and vids, guys! Yeah, that's quite the change in physique. Fun to see. Hope he can hit.

Curious that Roederer is **not** among the six guys with highest exit velocity. I wonder how data-literal Phil's comment actually is? Also interesting that Davis *is* included in that group. I wouldn't have been confident that with his length that he'd have the swing-speed for exit-velo. Also interesting that Ademan, who slugged .273, would be included.

Video of Marquez from last week at South Bend. Not sure I'm really noticing the "soft" bit? I sure wouldn't have thought that from the video, if it hadn't been suggested earlier? If Marquez is "soft", then I don't know what you'd call guys like Schwarber and Justin Wilson... Regardless, I hope he's got the motivation and brains to get the most out of whatever ability he's got. Important guy for the system.

Post-draft, I thought I recall McLeod talking about Thompson being wild but that his stuff when he's at his best was 2nd-round caliber, or something like that. I can't reproduce the exact phrasing, but I recall thinking the "2nd round" phrasing was interesting. That's very good, although perhaps not quite Kimbrel-esque.

Young's played almost exclusively 1B.

This box shows Hultzen going 1 inning, not two. http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2018_08_16_cubrok_diarok_1&t=g_box&sid=milb But over last 4 games, 3.1 innings, he's got 8K/1BB/0H. So that's 11 hitters, 1 walk, 8 K's, and two BIP-outs. Kinda fun. I wonder if the guy has any kind of arm left anymore? That would be super cool, for us as Cubs fans, but more broadly just as a human interest story, to see a guy like that come back and end up still having some major-league success after all these years. https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/highschools/a-cautionary-tale-for-pitching-through-pain-former-no-2-pick-attempts-a-comeback/2017/08/17/ca393ca4-6423-11e7-a6c7-f769fa1d5691_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.585fe1249543

There is a possibility I was wrong about richan. Yeah, nice to see Richan doing well, and Franklin too. I wonder when the last year was that we saw a college draftee pitch a 4-inning game during his draft summer? Very unusual, perhaps reflecting that Richan had a very low pitch count? Does anybody know what Davis's latest injury is? He's been out for a week or so now.

Rucker's 3.49 ERA on season, with a 1.09 WHIP, and 109K/118 IP. Nothing great, but not bad. But his composite numbers obviously include his crummy April. Over last 10 starts, he's 2.72. And among those 10, he had one terrible 6-runs-in-3-innings start. Of course every pitcher's numbers are inflated by their worst games, so taking out their worst starts makes a lot of guys look good. But if I take out the 6-run start, he's got a 1.8 ERA over his other last 9 starts. I admit I'm kinda skeptical that his stuff will carry up. But it's fun to hope so.

Rodriguez and Garcia both terrific, again, in DSL. Both are lefties, listing at 6'1" and 6'2", 18 and 17. Garcia was a $150K guy who supposedly added a couple inches and some pounds, and added 5mph. May still be a soft-toss guy, the BA writeup mentioned him having touched 92. Rodriguez, Garcia, and Cruz have been pretty terrific, and Marquez good too. Would be so great to have some of these Latin pitchers develop into serious prospects. I keep assuming Rodriguez or Cruz are bound to get lit up one of these days, how consistent can any 18-year-old be, but they just keep putting up good game after good game. Very fun.

I imagine every pitcher has some deviation. If Lange was 90-92 and gets there most games, I have to assume he'd have a fluke 93 or 94 once in a while. Who cares. If 90-92 is what he pitches with on a good night, that's obviously below-average. Better have very good movement and excellent location to win with below-average velocity. That game got his ERA below 4, so that's good.

Swarmer strictly limits any runs against to HR's! Gives up his second. South bend messes up my all-levels-get-shut-out by scoring 2 in the 9th. Myrtle comes through with a shutout, losing 1-0.

Swarmer with 1HR and otherwise good again through 4. Passantino with 2 HR and otherwise good for 7. Heh heh, Ademan broke up the extra-inning no-hitter to get that 1-0 win. But during middle-or-late innings, all of the full-season teams are getting shutout. That would be kinda uncommon if the Cubs and all four full-season teams could all get shutout on the same day!

90-92 fastball for Lange, on a good day, isn't super inspiring. I've been surprised that after all the curveball buzz, that he hasn't K'd more guys. K-rate hasn't been bad, or anything, but given how few A-ballers can hit average curves, much less excellent ones, I'd have figured he'd have a few more 9K/6IP games on days when curve was sharp.

thanks, cal. And anything over $10K, counts. I'd guess the $683 would get spent out on a dozen $50K type guys or something like that, more or less? Or perhaps already has? But, I could also imagine the Cubs feeling like they had scouted and wanted Serrano, and had a good relationship; **if** their info is at all indicative that the Mexican thing might get resolved, I could see them maybe wanting to hold $300K (or more) and still resign Serrano. It occurs to me that the new fixed-cap-without-penalty-box probably isn't that optimal for a lot of the guys who used to be picking up $300K deals. There were always a handful of penalty teams with a bunch of millions who were looking to sign a dozen $300K guys each. But now with nobody capped to $300, I wonder if most teams will focus on a handful of big tickets, and other guys will be looking at ≤$100K deals?

You guys have probably already detailed this, but have the Cubs already spent this, and everything else? Or based on your tracking of the big-ticket spendings, does this $300K plus some other unspent $$ perhaps give the Cubs some discretionary cash to still get some guy(s), whether serrano himself or somebody else? Also, what has been the timing on all of this? I assume BA is reporting it now, but mlb and the Cubs knew about this before July, so that the Cubs had already factored the $300K into signings they have already made?

18-year-old Cruz with another excellent ASL game, 5-1-0-1-6

Have you guys gotten any updated scouting info on Keegan Thompson? His outing drops his AA and composite season ERA's below 3. Over his last 8 starts, 5 have been shutout outings. 5 earned runs spread out over 8 starts is pretty good work. Thompson, Rucker, and Swarmer have been in a pretty outstanding collective groove.

Keegan T might also fall in that not-much-stuff but has been competitive in AA. 2.91 over last 10 starts, 3.03 at AA, 3.13 on season. Think he's been making some adjustments in how he works. Seemed to come out as a throw-strikes/challenge guy (13 walks in 68 Myrtle innings). But at Tenn, he's ~ doubled his walk rate (16 walks in 39 innings), while reducing the HR's. May be coincidence. But I wonder if he's taken a more Lester/Quintana approach, where you'd rather nibble and walk a guy than give him a fat pitch on 3-1? Obviously he's got to really locate, because his stuff seems average or below-average. But results have been good, and maybe there is still improvement ahead for him?

Thanks, cal, those are all really good points. Agree on all. Rucker has a 2.72 ERA over last 10 starts. Had a poor April, but from May on, his ERA is a hair under 3.0. Not sure if his stuff could ever translate to the majors, he's got the two hardest steps left (PCL is a tough step, and the step to the majors is biggest of all.) Totally possible that he's just kind of like Farrell, a blah-stuff guy who depends on throwing strikes to bad hitters. Think sometimes those guys can get killed in the majors; in minors can get away with throwing not-great fastballs for strikes, and not getting killed because the hitters are bad. (Look at the collection of bad hitters Tennessee has...) But then in majors some of those fastball strikes are getting smoked, so you nibble more, and instead of working 1-2 counts and getting guys to chase on minor-league curve, you're working 2-1 counts and big-league hitters don't chase so now you're 3-1, etc.. But it would be nice if a control guy like Rucker was able to be decent as a 6th/7th starter, so you don't need to be turning to Tseng or Farrell when you've got a spot start. Same for Swarmer. 2.91 ERA on the year, 1.1 WHIP, 114K/17BB is pretty good. 3.27 over last 10 starts at Tennessee, 2.63 over last 7 starts, 37K/3BB over last 6 starts (34.2 IP). Those are some pretty nice numbers. (obviously chosen subsequent to his last lousy game.) Again, not sure if his stuff or effectiveness will carry up very well. But would sure be fun to have some rotation options next July. Think a lot of the big-league rotation has been worked pretty heavily. Would be nice to have an Iowa option, and give a guy like Lester All Star break off, then skip a start after, so that he could kinda get a two-week break to refresh his arm. Or same for Quintana. I'm not asking for top prospects here. Just some guys who, given the advantage of being unfamiliar to opposing hitters, could give 4-5 competitive innings and it wasn't a Farrell-like fillin.

7th round overslot Artis is finally back tonight. Two walks and two runs thus far, still 0-3 on the season.

When did Estrada have TJ?

I've never read "plus raw power" in the future for Brennen Davis in any scouting report. He is super athletic and 6'4", but he's a skinny dude. He's listed at 175 lbs. right now. He might develop power down the road, but I'd rather he just focus on making contact. I know I saw that in one of the draft reports, too. Obviously it's projection, a "possible" thing. But there are lots of guys who fill out and become a lot stronger and physically more mature by age 23 than what they were at 18. There aren't that many 175-pound 6'4" guys at age 23. So it's not inconceivable that he'll grow into significantly more batting-practice power over the next few years. Not sure it's "probable" that he'll grow into excellent real-game power, but it isn't impossible. (Well, I am sure: it isn't "probable", even if it is variably possible to have good or decent power.) Obviously the Cubs spend a 2nd-round pick assuming he's going to grow into more than LaStella or Hendricks/Quintana power. Like pretty much everything else with his game, something to track over time.

Believe this was first game Davis has played in the field.