cheapseats

Alot of people were saying the same things about his brother. And Jones outproduced Brian last year. Could we atleast give Derosa a chance? You're back. Do I really need to go around saying this all the time? Cut the guy a little slack, alright? I'm tired of this crap. Thanks Tim! It'd sure be nice if people actually responded to my comment, instead of resorting to child like teasing. Can I respond about your user name instead? I find it ironic that someone with your user name has an anti-Giles-on-Cubs stance. :P It's a common misconception that the username in question is a reference to Marcus and Brian. It's actually a reference to drummer Mike Giles and his bassist brother Peter Giles who played with Robert Fripp pre-King Crimson. http://www.amazon.com/Cheerful-Insanity-Giles-Fripp/dp/B000001F74

I fully expect Hendry to start a bidding war to bring him back where he belongs. Do we have anyone who can be a backup at all nine positions? I think not. I'm waiting for the 3/$16m offer any day now. Too low. Look at what Marquis got. And he only plays one position poorly.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2607 I understand the point, but without the threat of the stolen base some of those disruptions by a runner on first do not exist, such as the first baseman could simply play back. That suggests a team should steal just enough to keep the threat very much alive in the opponents heads, but no more. Do they factor errors into the equation when calculating the percentage though, if it be the pitcher mis-throwing the pickoff throw or the catcher throwing the ball into center field? Oh sure, if there were no threat of a stolen base, the offense would lose some advantages of having a runner at first. And there are definitely situations in which attempting a steal is well worth the risk. Dan Fox concludes from his work that the stolen base shouldn't be a "general purpose weapon," but there are situations in which it makes sense as a strategy. In other words, giving most guys a permanent green light is a bad idea, but calling for steals judiciously can help a team score runs. Fox's formula takes number of outs, occupied bases, and the base that the runner is trying to steal into account. For example, the risk/reward ratio of stealing second is far better when there are two outs and no one else on base than when there are no outs and runners on first and third. Alfonso Soriano was the best at producing runs through stolen bases in 2005, but he was among the worst in 2006. Lou should only give him the green light in low-risk, high-reward situations. If he does so, Soriano will probably be an asset. AFAIK, errors aren't currently factored in to Fox's formula, but they might be in the future. It won't make a very big difference, but it would make some difference. For example, his numbers show about 4% of runners scoring after wild throws by catchers to third.

Getting to see Macias play ball on a regular basis again would truly be a Christmas miracle. Plus, if he sticks in Washington, he might make Church expendable.

I fully expect Hendry to start a bidding war to bring him back where he belongs. Do we have anyone who can be a backup at all nine positions? I think not.

Yeah, I'm out of the playoffs in one league because Peyton favored Harrison over Wayne this week :cry: But I'm playing for the championship in four leagues next week, so I'm happy about that.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=2926

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2607

Someone should show Lou this: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5764 Only four teams did better than breaking even last year. Every other team gave up runs by trying to steal bases. Florida, Detroit, Washington, and Colorado each lost more than ten runs. Who were the four teams that broke even or better? San Diego, Baltimore (thanks in large part to Corey Patterson), the Phillies, and the Mets. The Yankees and A's were very close to even.

Someone should show Lou this: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5764 Only four teams did better than breaking even last year. Every other team gave up runs by trying to steal bases. Florida, Detroit, Washington, and Colorado each lost more than ten runs.

I have no problem saying that Hendry and Baker did not to help in his development. The way they utilized him was asinine. I'd go so far as to say that they treated him unfairly. Maybe they were trying to teach him a lesson or something. Rookies should be seen and not heard. It's in the Joe Morgan edition of Baseball for Dummies Is that on the shelf next to CubinNY's Entitlements for Rookies? There is nothing at all wrong with making a person earn his spot on the team. Its just unfortunate the Cub's don't apply it to every player on the roster. so hill was treated unfairly. glad we got to the bottom of this. :lol: :lol: Hardly, it may turn out that Cubs actually handled Hill correctly and we can only hope that he continues to pitch the way he was pitching toward the end of season. No, the Cubs handled him incorrectly, and nothing that happens in the future will change the past.

I'd think about it, as they have some similar tools, but I have more hope for Pie than I do for Rios. Rios probably won't be a high K guy, but his IsoD numbers in the majors and minors have been mediocre to abysmal. He'll probably give you 25-30 HRs in his peak. However, his OBP is strongly tied to his AVG; he'll have to be able to maintain good BABIP and LD percentages over his career to be a productive hitter. If he goes into a slump where he can't hit his way out of a paper bag, he won't have patience to pick up the slack. I don't know if Rios has the speed and instincts to play CF. If he doesn't, then I'd shy away from dealing Pie for him. Actually, the only difference between Rios of 06 and previous years, was that he hit an insanely low amount of fly balls in 04 and 05 (juan pierre level), and was somewhat normal in 06. He never really showed much power in the minors (he only had one season with an IsoP >103). I don't think the minor league splits go back to when he was in the minors so I don't know his FB%, but I'm guessing, based on his HR #s that 06 was an abberation. His LD%s have been pretty average and consistent and his 06 BABIP was only .010 higher than expected, so I wouldn't consider it fluke lucky in terms of balls finding holes. But in order for him to put up future season of OPS significantly greater than 800 hes going to have to put the ball in the air like his abberational 06 year. I had looked at his batted ball earlier and came to the same basic conclusion. From 2004-2006, his groundballs have decreased at almost the same rate that his flyballs have increased, so it's possible that he's made a conscious effort to change his swing, but I think you're right and his power surge in 2006 won't happen again this year.

Actually, the theory is lineup protection, when the facts have indicated that it really makes no difference. Yep, there have been multiple studies with large sample sizes that indicate that "protection" doesn't make a meaningful difference on the MLB level. It might in lower levels of baseball, but not in the big leagues. Izturis should hit 9th. Does the DH have to bat for the pitcher in interleague games? With Z and Marquis in the rotation, I'd rather have someone hit for Izturis.

Giles had to sit at the beginning of 2006 and in the middle of the year with hand injuries. I don't expect him to return to his peak power numbers, but it's tough to grip a bat with an injured thumb. And Giles still put up a .341 OBP. I'll be rooting for Derosa because he's a Cub, but he'll likely be an inferior player to Giles next year.

As would I, but if last year wasn't a fluke for DeRosa then he will be very similar to Giles if my memory serves me correctly. The problem is, you know what you're getting from Giles, but I'm not positive DeRosa will repeat (though I'm fairly confident). I'm fairly confident we'll see a .750ish OPS from Derosa, but I'll be pleasantly surprised if that's not the case.

I'm not convinced he'll repeat his 2006. I'd peg him for a sub .800 OPS next year.

If Marquis wears the number, it'll be just one more reason to boo him vociferously.

We would have a lot fewer question marks right now if it weren't for Dusty's perpetual veterosexuality. I feel pretty good about Hill, but I still feel a slight twinge of doubt that wouldn't be there if they had just played the kid from jump. Did you see how he pitched in spring training last year? There were at least 5 others who were better. When Rusch absolutely sucked in April, they brought Hill up to pitch on May 4th and he sucked even worse. They ran him out there for 4 consecutive starts and each time, Hill did not pitch well. If Dusty had continued to run him out there and Hill continued to put up an ERA over 9, not only would fans say that Dusty isn't trying to win, but they would attack him for ruining a very promising pitching prospect with a somewhat fragile psyche by continuing to let him fail over and over again thus proving to Rich that he doesn't have what it takes to perform in the big leagues. No, Dusty and Jim did the right thing. They protected their prized prospect and sent him down to AAA where he had been redefining the word domination for the past year to get his confidence back and work on what was apparently having him fail at the big league level which was spotting the fastball. Apparently, once he improved his control with his fastball and was consistent with it, he was called back up. That took about 7 weeks in AAA to do. In his first start after being called back up, Hill failed. Did Dusty sit him? No. Just like in May, he gave him another shot. This time Hill did not fail. And Rich never looked back. In Hill's case, the results speak for themselves. He was handled right. that's such crap. just because he ended up doing well, it was because he got sent down? he was the same pitcher in AAA in '05, early '06 and his second stint there in '06. the reason he pitched better in the second half of the year was because he got some innings under his belt -- not because jim hendry handled the situation with a skilled hand. people need to quit giving hendry/baker credit for hill's success. he succeeded in spite of those fools, not because of them. Amen.

Who calls the plays for Dallas? Their offense looked incredibly predictable on that last drive. Atlanta is a terrible team against the pass, so Dallas should be throwing on almost every down, but it would be hard for them to be more conservative.

The above is a short excerpt from an article up on Baseball Prospectus right now. In baseball, maybe more than any other sport, I would not give up on a guy with personality issues. Jeff Kent is a huge jerk, but I'd rather have him at second base than Mark Derosa. I'd rather have JD Drew than Willy Taveras and Ryan Church than Angel Pagan, too.

I disagree with this part of the analysis. He was a Rule 5 pickup in 2005, and the bullpen made sense as a way to keep him on the roster. Also, he's still young enough that limiting his pitches is probably a smart idea. Keeping him in the bullpen is one way to do that (but not the only way, of course).

I really like this move for the Sox.

They should make Marquis wear #6.02.

I hate that Hendry even mentions Pagan while talking about the starting outfield. He's not serious, is he? And who cares if Pagan is a switch hitter. It's not like he's an outstanding hitter from either side of the plate. Pagan is terrible.

Oh, I'll definitely sell my tickets again if they trade so much as a living, breathing minor leaguer for Taveres, but it's not because I'd rather see Pie in CF next year.