cheapseats

Not necessarily my own view, fwiw. Who wrote that? Aren't the 3 best closers in history Eckersley, Lee Smith, and Eric Gagne? 3 Americans? Gagne is not an American. Eckersley was already pitching before Tony Larussa invented the closer, so he doesn't count. I'd take Jose Mesa over Lee Smith.

I heard Wood punched him with his throwing hand. He threw an awkward across-the-body punch, and his arm has never been the same since. :(

Do you have stats for number of pitches thrown per season during that era? Pitches per plate appearance have increased pretty dramatically since then.

Not necessarily my own view, fwiw.

Not so much aimed at the poster, but this statement is what kills me. "When it counts" is the hundreds of regular season atbats (whether in the majors or minors). Judging a player's value by a handful of atbats during an arbitrary period of time is stupid. Neifi Perez was awesome when he joined the Cubs in 2004, but he had a history of sucking that indicated that he would continue to suck.

So you think it's silly but it's not bad? Or did you change your mind in the middle of your post? A 700 OPS off the bench IS bad. Pagan took up a roster spot that could have been filled by someone who could actually contribute.

I don't. I really don't think he's that crafty.

And the Cubs already had 8 candidates for the back of the rotation with similar ZIPS projections: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/cubs_signed_marquis/

You forgot to mention that he's not very good defensively. I don't know what the numbers say about him, but the few times I did see him play, he looked as shaky as Murton has ever looked, hesitating, misjudging and misplaying balls like many others. At best, he's average. I don't see how he can be considered defensive replacement level. I was deferring to scouting reports that said he is a good defender. Of course, for example, some scouts say he has a cannon for an arm and other scouts say he has a weak arm. I don't know that he made enough appearances in any outfield position for meaningful data from defensive metrics.

Exactly. And the "closer by committee" approach of the Red Sox in 2003 was called a failure by sportswriters after the first two games. When Latroy Hawkins struggled at the start of the 2005 season, no one said the idea of the traditional closer was a mistake. The most important thing is who you have in that committee. A closer by committee situation isn't going to work without good relievers. Boston's bullpen had the 3rd highest ERA in baseball in 2003. That's a product of not having enough good relievers, not who is pitching in the 9th. Yes, Boston got some horrible performances from their pen in 2003.

Exactly. And the "closer by committee" approach of the Red Sox in 2003 was called a failure by sportswriters after the first two games. When Latroy Hawkins struggled at the start of the 2005 season, no one said the idea of the traditional closer was a mistake.

Pagan had a lower OPS than Juan Pierre. If there was a time he was hitting, I totally missed it. I gotta agree with the first poster... Pagan brings some nice qualities to the back of the bench, and I don't have any problem with having a speedy, switch hitter that can play all three outfield spots provided that he's not the number one option for either left or right handed pinch hitter. Ward can fill one of those spots, Craig Wilson for the other maybe? (Or Phil Nevin even?) The only thing Pagan brings is decent - not great - defense. His speed isn't particularly helpful as his stolen base percentage is less than 73%. What good does it do to be a switch hitter if you don't hit well from either side? See Perez, Neifi or Izturis, Cesar.

:shock: I guess he's like Juan Pierre but not as fast and not as good a hitter? I can see what makes him so likable. :twisted: I thought Pagan was faster than Pierre by a good deal til he pulled his hammy early in the season. Seemed like that pull really dropped his speed in a hurry and he never did quite recover all the way during the season, though Pagan is faster. Pierre actually shocked me last year because he didn't seem as fast as when he was with Florida for some reason. So he can run back to the dugout even faster when he makes an out? :twisted: He stole a lot of bases in the minors, but he got caught at or below the break even point. When he was drafted in 1999, most scouts saw his ceiling as 4th OF, and he's underperformed expectations. The Mets tried to convert him into a "leadoff hitter" when he was drafted. He had not been a switch hitter in college, but the Mets wanted him to learn to switch hit to take advantage of his speed. In a small number of atbats last year, he actually hit better from the left side, but throughout his career he's been a better hitter from the right. Maybe he should drop hitting lefthanded. In the minors, he hit one homerun per every 163 atbats. In a full season of AAA, he hit a total of 8. If we had Chris Duncan in the outfield, maybe Pagan would have a tiny bit of value as a late-innings defensive replacement, but the Cubs don't have a starting OF who is an obvious defensive liability. Pagan is part of the problem.

Pagan had a lower OPS than Juan Pierre. If there was a time he was hitting, I totally missed it.

:shock: I guess he's like Juan Pierre but not as fast and not as good a hitter? I can see what makes him so likable. :twisted:

Pagan shouldn't even be on the team next year, much less starting in center. That would be a horrible, horrible decision. Cubs with a higher OPS than Pagan last year include Juan Pierre and Henry Blanco.

Again, there's a whole article about it, and Kenny Williams acknowledged the non-traditional bullpen usage. Earlier you said "This never works in practice." Feel free to give an example other than the 2003 Red Sox.

Nope. Go back and look at the actual usage. Jenks didn't become a fulltime closer until halfway through September, and even when Hermanson took over for Takatsu, Marte was used in "closer situations" far more often than an ordinary setup man. In fact, there are interviews with Kenny Williams in which he acknowledges that the club was using the bullpen in such a way, but he refused to call it "by committee" because of the negative connotations associated with it. There's a whole article about the White Sox 2005 bullpen usage in the BP archives.

This never works in practice Except for the 1985 Cardinals, who had four different guys with four or more saves and none with more than 19. Except for the 2005 White Sox, who got four or more saves from four different pitchers (Hermanson, Takatsu, Jenks, Marte). From May 11 to August 24, Marte was brought in about 1 out of every 6 times a manager normally brings in his closer. From August 25 to September 13, Ozzie Guillen used three different pitchers (Jenks, Marte, and Hermanson) in save situations, with Marte getting 1 out of every 3 calls. I really don't care if one guy is called "the closer" or not. But I blame Tony Larussa for the way modern "closers" are used, only working the 9th inning in save situations. The best reliever should be used when it most benefits the team, and sometimes that would be the 8th inning or even the 7th inning if that's when the opponent's heart of the order is batting. If I had Mariano Rivera, I'd rather use him against Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen than save him for Juan Encarnacion, Aaron Miles, and Yadier Molina. Was it Joe Buck who started preaching the idea that the last 3 outs are the toughest? If so, it's just one more reason to hate Joe Buck.

Natural centerfielder or no, Wilson was far worse than Adam Dunn in left field last year according to Chris Dial's metric. Chris Dial must have been drunk when he posted those numbers. Seriously. Living in St. Louis, I saw Wilson play often. There's no way in hell that he was worse than Dunn last year. No way. Wilson has a much lower score than Dunn in Probabilistic Model of Range, too, so it's not just Chris Dial's metric that rated him low: http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/018498.php Davenport's fielding metric had Wilson six runs better than Dunn last year in LF, but still below average. The Fielding Bible had Wilson as one of the worst defensive CF's in baseball from 2003-2005. Without debating the relative defensive value of Wilson vs. Dunn, it's pretty safe to say that Wilson is a defensive liability in CF now.

Natural centerfielder or no, Wilson was far worse than Adam Dunn in left field last year according to Chris Dial's metric. The Cubs should have picked up Jose Cruz Jr., who signed with the Padres for just $650,000 and has a .392 OBP in three-year splits vs. lefties. Yeah, Cruz, Jr. is who I wanted. In the last few years, Hendry's inability to find cheap production has frustrated me almost as much as his inability to get the big name free agents. Oh well.

Natural centerfielder or no, Wilson was far worse than Adam Dunn in left field last year according to Chris Dial's metric. The Cubs should have picked up Jose Cruz Jr., who signed with the Padres for just $650,000 and has a .392 OBP in three-year splits vs. lefties.

But we already had CF set for years with CP.

I just bought some Red Sox tickets today.

Per Rotoworld: The St. Louis Post-Dispatch says that free agent Jason Marquis is believed to be close to signing with the Cubs.