cheapseats

Derosa vs. a righty...

THE RIOT!!!

One time in Monroe, LA, I choked on a steak and my dad whacked me on the back. I voted three times. If I were you, I'd blame Monroe for the choking.

What has Monroe ever done for me?

Wow, I guess the Cubs are still shopping Jones. Even if Jones ends up going nowhere, I like the idea of Murton and Floyd being able to play at the same time.

If the Cubs must have another infielder for whatever reason, Inglett would be the best choice by far.

Floyd, a left-handed hitter, has a career .281 average against right-handers, and .272 average against lefties. Murton, a right-handed hitter, has a .329 average against lefties and .289 against right-handers. that's pretty much all i need to know. .277 .369 .498 .867 .289 .351 .436 .787 I'd rather have the top set of numbers. But I wouldn't vote for a straight platoon. Floyd's been around long enough that he has seen a lot of pitchers multiple times. I'd rather him start against those pitchers that he's hit well. I'd start him against Livan Hernandez in a heartbeat, for example. I'd start Floyd against Tim Hudson but Murton against John Smoltz.

I heart Joe Morgan.

Not really related, but still funny: http://www.firejoemorgan.com/

Nice DP ball by Derosa.

Neifi would.

Hail, Cesar!

I was going to call a swinging K, but I'm too late. :)

He isn't? :wink:

He can't hit righties. We might as well get used to it. Whats his purpose then? Every offseason, Hendry has to pick up a career bench guy who just came off a career year that he's unlikely to repeat. It's his thing.

It was a nice bunt.

He can't hit righties. We might as well get used to it.

Pagan is trying to make a case for keeping Perez off the team.

Soriano and Murton both ranked as two of the best LF in baseball last year. Most advanced metrics had Jones at above average, too. The outfield defense will be fine.

Since you didn't say it... Wuertz for closer. He'd certainly be a better choice than Dempster. It's really nice to see the Cubs making some intelligent decisions this spring, but there are still lots of areas where they could improve.

You've said this before, and it's simply not true. Davenport adjusts for league difficulty and park effects. Feel free to provide examples.

When you look at his home/away splits for his last 5 years in the Metrodome, it will be more likely he will be closer to 2006 than 2004-2005. Not to completely jump into this...but I'd also point out that if you add in last years numbers to those, you'd really have no reason to think he wouldn't hit close to .300 with a .330+ OBP...he did it in 2 of the 4 years in question. I don't think he'll hit close to .300 (of course that depends on what one considers "close"), but I don't think he'll have a .315 OBP like he did in 2004, either. Jacque's weighted mean PECOTA for 2007: .279 .337 .459 Bill James, Marcel, ZIPS, and CHONE all predict OBP in the .320-.330 range and SLG in the .456-.459 range.

I know it turned out deadly for the Cubs the last two years, last year when Cedeno didn't come close to his PECOTA, and two years ago when DuBois didn't come close to his PECOTA. I don't think PECOTA has ever been very good for rookies. I disagree. Of the prominent rookies from 2005, only Cano and Reed look off to me: Robinson Cano 2005 PECOTA: .255/.298/.389 Real 2005: .297/.320/.458 Willy Taveras 2005 PECOTA: .252/.330/.334 Real 2005: .291/.325/.341 Clint Barmes 2005 PECOTA: .272/.315/.424 Real 2005: .289/.330/.434 Ryan Howard 2005 PECOTA: .259/.341/.508 Real 2005: .288/.356/.567 Jonny Gomes 2005 PECOTA: .265/.366/.491 Real 2005: .282/.372/.534 Garrett Atkins 2005 PECOTA: .287/.354/.461 Real 2005: .287/.347/.426 Dan Johnson 2005 PECOTA: .259/.343/.445 Real 2005: .275/.355/.451 Ryan Langerhans 2005 PECOTA: .265/.357/.456 Real 2005: .267/.348/.426 Russ Adams 2005 PECOTA: .268/.338/.396 Real 2005: .256/.325/.383 Jeremy Reed 2005 PECOTA: .286/.353/.423 Real 2005: .254/.322/.352 Mark Teahen 2005 PECOTA: .251/.322/.375 Real 2005: .246/.309/.376 Nick Swisher 2005 PECOTA: .244/.351/.423 Real 2005: .236/.322/.446 It's easy to back up a statement like that when you can hand pick what guys stats you use to back it up. Those guys aren't prominent just because they are, they are prominent because they did well. PECOTA projects numbers like that for a ton of rookies, only a few do that well. That's why the "prominent" ones stand out and make PECOTA look good. The standard deviation for rooks is considerably higher than veterans across the board. It's not a great, or even good, tool for projecting rookies. That's not to say there are any better tools out there though. I'd be foolish to say Pie is likely to his as well as Jones this year just based on Pecota. I didn't handpick the players. I pulled them off the first blog I could find that listed them. If you'd rather pick a different list of players, feel free. It's not a great or even good tool for projecting rookie performance even though it got most of the performances listed above right? Okay. .304 .333 .464 .254 .315 .427 .249 .319 .438 Those were Jones' 3 years before joining the Cubs. Do you think he's more likely to replicate 2006 or 2003-2005?

Wow!

I know it turned out deadly for the Cubs the last two years, last year when Cedeno didn't come close to his PECOTA, and two years ago when DuBois didn't come close to his PECOTA. I don't think PECOTA has ever been very good for rookies. I disagree. Of the prominent rookies from 2005, only Cano and Reed look off to me: Robinson Cano 2005 PECOTA: .255/.298/.389 Real 2005: .297/.320/.458 Willy Taveras 2005 PECOTA: .252/.330/.334 Real 2005: .291/.325/.341 Clint Barmes 2005 PECOTA: .272/.315/.424 Real 2005: .289/.330/.434 Ryan Howard 2005 PECOTA: .259/.341/.508 Real 2005: .288/.356/.567 Jonny Gomes 2005 PECOTA: .265/.366/.491 Real 2005: .282/.372/.534 Garrett Atkins 2005 PECOTA: .287/.354/.461 Real 2005: .287/.347/.426 Dan Johnson 2005 PECOTA: .259/.343/.445 Real 2005: .275/.355/.451 Ryan Langerhans 2005 PECOTA: .265/.357/.456 Real 2005: .267/.348/.426 Russ Adams 2005 PECOTA: .268/.338/.396 Real 2005: .256/.325/.383 Jeremy Reed 2005 PECOTA: .286/.353/.423 Real 2005: .254/.322/.352 Mark Teahen 2005 PECOTA: .251/.322/.375 Real 2005: .246/.309/.376 Nick Swisher 2005 PECOTA: .244/.351/.423 Real 2005: .236/.322/.446