cheapseats

I'd hold off on Ensberg, but I'd pick up Upton in a heartbeat. Right now he's getting fewer AB's than Uggla, but if he keeps performing, the at-bats will come.

i can't speak for cheapseats, but i do know that PECOTA projects Pie to be better than Jones. Jones -- .284/.343/.473 VORP: 12.3 WARP: 2.8 EqA: .279 Pie -- .288/.342/.480 VORP: 25.3 WARP: 5.0 EqA: .283 I have a hard time believing that a player with questionable plate discipline will be better in his first year in the bigs than he was in his first year at Iowa. I have a hard time believing your weather forecasts. :evil:

Well, if the lineup can support Jacque Jones and Izturis, it can support Pie and Izturis. Pie's OPS is currently higher than Jacque's, and it projects to be slightly higher than Jacque's. Based on each player's current OPS, substituting Pie for Jones would result in about 16 more runs over the course of a season.

It's that good?

Maybe, but maybe not. I think the real question, which is probably unanswerable, is to what extent was Prior's shoulder injury was inevitable, especially after the collision and the Hawpe ball. (Yes I know it hit near his elbow but Prior might have compensated in his motion due to the elbow.) Would Prior still be hurt now given those two incidents had he been given a normal workload in 2003? And what would "normal" be here -- maybe 5% fewer total innings & pitches? Who knows, but my guess is that he would still be hurt even if the Cubs had a different manager in 2003, all else equal. I'm not about to defend the high early 2003 pitch counts Dusty put Prior through (not to mention Game 2 NLCS), but I think virtually 100% of all major league managers, living and dead, would have ridden him hard down the stretch to get the Cubs into the playoffs, especially with the spotty bullpen they had. Well, it's not that I'm after Dusty's blood, but Carroll's analysis clearly rules out the Giles collision as a significant factor. If you have a reason to disagree with his findings, cool, but it appears that the injury was chronic. Could the Hawpe line drive led to cascade injuries? Sure. But I haven't seen anyone make the case that it altered his mechanics. I hate the "all the other managers would have done it" argument. While it may very well be true, it doesn't justify the action. Plus, Dusty's overuse started well before the stretch run, and often didn't make any sense at all. Why should a 22-year-old starter throw 131 pitches in a 7-0 blowout? Pitchers do get injured regularly, so maybe MP was destined to get hurt, but Dusty was probably the worst possible choice to handle a young pitching staff. And it probably didn't help that, under Baker, the training staff was in constant turnover. Heck, Baker brought in a guy who wasn't even licensed to be a trainer. All very valid points, and Baker certainly shares the blame, but I disagree that comparing Baker to other managers (re pitch counts) is invalid if the issue is injury inevitability. I read once that Baker leaves his starters in for an average of just 3.5 extra pitches per game compared to most managers, which I think might surprise some folks here. I'm shocked that Baker hasn't gotten more heat about that trainer fiasco, but I think the Cubs and Hendry were more at fault for not performing due diligence. It was hilarious that Groeschner was certified right after Sandy Krum filed his wrongful termination lawsuit. Yeah, I've seen the THT article. It's pretty poor analysis because it doesn't take the age of comparable pitchers into account. Essentially, Gassko was comparing how Dusty treated Prior to how other managers treated pitchers who were about as good as Prior, guys like Pedro Martinez, Jason Schmidt, Kevin Brown, etc. For the most part, Gassko was comparing Baker's handling of a young pitching staff to the way other managers handled veteran pitchers. It's apples to oranges. Compare how Brandon Webb was used in 2003 to how Prior was used. They're about the same age (Webb is just a little bit older), and they both pitched very well in 2003, but Prior had many more lengthy outings than Webb. Another problem with Gassko's article is the assumption that measuring the average number of pitches is relevant; according to the research on pitcher abuse, it's unusually lengthy outings that may lead to injury. A pitcher who averages 105 pitches with a high standard deviation will be more likely to suffer injury than a pitcher who averages 105 pitches with a low standard deviation. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/dusty-baker-and-pitch-counts/ As for Groeschner et al, I'm really starting to think that having a good training staff is a huge competitive advantage, and it's an area in which the Cubs have fallen woefully short. Ozzie Guillen doesn't know what he's doing, but his training staff sure does.

But the fact is Dusty abused his guys more than any manager abused theirs. Lots of them are bad. But Dusty is the worst. I'm looking through the game logs from 2003 and he has so many 100+ ptich outings. He had 2 stretches when he had a long string of starts with over 100 pitches. One stretch was 12 consecutive starts with over a 100 pitches and another was 10 starts. These streaks were separated by 2 starts. Unreal. It's often argued that 110-115 pitches is a good limit for most veteran pitchers. But Prior was just 22, and he shouldn't have been throwing 120+ pitches. He averaged more pitches per start than Livan Hernandez. That's always a bad sign. At least Dusty didn't leave Prior in for 140+ like he did Wood.

Maybe, but maybe not. I think the real question, which is probably unanswerable, is to what extent was Prior's shoulder injury was inevitable, especially after the collision and the Hawpe ball. (Yes I know it hit near his elbow but Prior might have compensated in his motion due to the elbow.) Would Prior still be hurt now given those two incidents had he been given a normal workload in 2003? And what would "normal" be here -- maybe 5% fewer total innings & pitches? Who knows, but my guess is that he would still be hurt even if the Cubs had a different manager in 2003, all else equal. I'm not about to defend the high early 2003 pitch counts Dusty put Prior through (not to mention Game 2 NLCS), but I think virtually 100% of all major league managers, living and dead, would have ridden him hard down the stretch to get the Cubs into the playoffs, especially with the spotty bullpen they had. Well, it's not that I'm after Dusty's blood, but Carroll's analysis clearly rules out the Giles collision as a significant factor. If you have a reason to disagree with his findings, cool, but it appears that the injury was chronic. Could the Hawpe line drive led to cascade injuries? Sure. But I haven't seen anyone make the case that it altered his mechanics. I hate the "all the other managers would have done it" argument. While it may very well be true, it doesn't justify the action. Plus, Dusty's overuse started well before the stretch run, and often didn't make any sense at all. Why should a 22-year-old starter throw 131 pitches in a 7-0 blowout? Pitchers do get injured regularly, so maybe MP was destined to get hurt, but Dusty was probably the worst possible choice to handle a young pitching staff. And it probably didn't help that, under Baker, the training staff was in constant turnover. Heck, Baker brought in a guy who wasn't even licensed to be a trainer.

No. He does have inside contacts within the training staffs of most MLB teams (if not all). I'd trust what Carroll has to say about an injury more than I'd trust what that player's team has to say. The above is especially true of the Cubs.

It is really a shame...And I do believe it came from that collision with Giles. I think it all stems from that. Nope. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6151 In other words, yes, we can blame Dusty. The Cub Reporter has a slightly different take http://mvn.com/mlb-cubs/ Thanks for the link. I don't normally visit Cub Reporter. One thing is clear after reading the doctor's comments: Carroll does a good job of explaining medical terminology for laypeople. It's pretty tough to translate medical language (or any profession-specific language) into something that can be understood by the general public. It appears that the doctor thinks that Prior should shoulder some of the responsibility. Of course, when Prior informs the team of discomfort, the Chicago media labels him a wuss... EDIT: The doctor who wrote the piece for Cub Reporter was using Carroll's unfiltered post as a source. Carroll has since posted new information (or rather, more detailed information) in his Under the Knife. The quote I posted earlier is from the UTK column.

It is really a shame...And I do believe it came from that collision with Giles. I think it all stems from that. Nope. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6151 In other words, yes, we can blame Dusty. Ahh....Interesting! Yeah, I think it's interesting, too. I've probably never been so interested in someone else's medical history.

It is really a shame...And I do believe it came from that collision with Giles. I think it all stems from that. Nope. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6151 In other words, yes, we can blame Dusty.

Yes! This board needs more Bonds and A-Rod fan fiction, pls.

Yes.

I concur.

seriously, they need to pull the plug on this Agreed. What should replace it? A recording of Harry? Ron Santo? A strict restriction on who can sing it, like former players/broadcasters only? They should play the Lee Elia rant during the stretch at day games.

Pounds?

I'm assuming your in a standard 5x5 H2H league. When making roster decisions, I use PECOTA projections adjusted for current performance. Lopez at 2B would make the team slightly better if he does obtain 2B eligibility. Baldelli also projects to be a slight improvement over Swisher.

I'm with you, and they do play baseball the right way. I dream of a day when we play ball like that. Is this a joke? Do you guys know how many HRs the Sox hit last year and in 2005? Do you know their OBP for the 1-2 hitters? Stop it. It's grit and intestinal fortitude that wins games for the Sox. And also there are homeruns.

I'm hoping guys like Howry, Eyre, and Ohman become more consistent when (if) we can start getting more than 5 innings out of Zambrano and our 5 slot. Our bullpen is throwing a lot of innings this year so far. Yep. Having Howry/Cotts/Ohman consistently going for the 6th/7th inning to set up Wuertz and Dempster I think would really strengthen the pen. Although I do like how Wuertz has been used in high leverage situations before the end of the game. I agree. I think Wuertz is THE stopper until proven otherwise. The guy has brass balls, and seems to thrive in high-pressure situations. Under no circumstances should Eyre be allowed to pitch to more than 2 batters. join. i like using wuertz in big situations rather than labeling him as the 8th inning guy or whatever. he's their best reliever and should be brought in at the most important moment regardless of the inning. Yes.

I can't see that it hurts them at all.

questec, pls.

No thanks.

To be or not to be That one doesn't work. It worked in college.

To be or not to be

What time period? A mixture. Wordsworth, Keats, Tennyson, Browning, Yeats, and T.S. Eliot are on this quiz. Tell your teacher that Wordsworth and Tennyson are pretty much irrelevant now.