cheapseats

I have seen the 2nd study before but that is not what we are discussing at the moment. Your reading comprehension = not so good.

Its kind of the same thing that is going on with DLee and ARam, although many on this board dont believe that it exists. http://bradbury.sewanee.edu/pigou_web.pdf Hitters with "protection" in the lineup actually perform worse than those without "protection." http://www.baseball1.com/bb-data/grabiner/protstudy.html

It's a very useful stat. Team defense is much, much easier to measure than individual defense. The Cubs defense has been very strong so far this year.

Interesting! Just don't tell him about NSBB, I wouldn't want him getting injured posting on here all the time. :wink: I already know about NSBB. I try to limit my posting here to avoid fatigue to my forearms.

Are you really going by the career averages of a 26 year old starting pitcher who came into the league at the age of 22? His last two seasons have been the stuff of a No. 2 starter, and he's not even near his pitching prime. His numbers are skewed by a rough 75 starts when he was getting his feet wet. I guess when your "point" is completely wrong, it's just easiest to make a fool of yourself. The difference is, I have a point. You have NOTHING but pure speculation. Pitchers in their prime have regressed before, you know. Myers wasn't moved to the pen because the Phillies had to have him there. He was moved because he flat out stunk in the rotation this season. 5 IP per start, with a 9+ ERA, and a WHIP of 1.6. Yep, those look like #2 starter numbers to me. Good point. Carlos Zambrano after 3 starts: 5.1 IP per start, with a 7.88 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.69. Yep, those look like sig-worthy numbers to me.

He's making $650,000. I would have liked to have seen the Cubs sign Cruz and Floyd, FWIW.

It's pretty easy to calculate the standard deviation of runs scored. Last time I checked, the Mets had a higher standard deviation than the Cubs, and they're doing just fine.

But...but he's our closer. That's what you do right? Throw your closer in the 9th no matter who's coming up. Right? Not if you're smart.

The bullpen is fine. Using Dempster against lefties isn't.

Dempster can't get lefties out. He never has been able to. Sending Dempster in against a bunch of lefties and switch hitters = loss.

A left-handed batter hits Z hard? No way!

Dusty won't be doing it. In another thread (I believe in Baseball Discussions) he said that he wouldn't be doing any Cubs games this year. Dusty posts here? Yeah. His screen name is "jersey cubs fan." :-$

you would be more than hated. if you were going into the season with a rotation of Zambrano Lilly Marquis Hill Miller and you traded Zambrano, you should have been fired. it sounds good in hindsight, but unless you thought you weren't contending this year -- which really should never be an option for a big market team like the Cubs -- trading Zambrano would have been a terrible idea. Well, if you look back through preseason posts, I was one of several people who advocating trading Zambrano for the purpose of winning now, so it's not hindsight, and it wouldn't have (necessarily) been a white flag. Of course, I never would have signed Marquis, either, so I'm not claiming genius status.

I agree. Which is why I think the data you cite is a red herring.

True, but there was weakness in Z's peripherals last season to suggestion he wasn't right. I think he's injured. There's also this: I Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS Pk BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip sOPS+ tOPS+ Split +-+------------+---+----+----+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+ 2003 vs RHB as RH 32 554 480 48 113 24 0 4 54 5 94 8 7 5 3 17 1 2 1 .235 .320 .310 .630 .282 77 92 vs RHB as RH vs LHB as RH 32 353 306 32 75 19 1 5 40 7 74 2 4 1 5 7 2 3 1 .245 .335 .363 .698 .307 80 112 vs LHB as RH 2004 vs RHB as RH 31 461 403 39 88 16 4 7 38 2 106 11 8 1 6 12 2 1 0 .218 .302 .330 .632 .278 74 94 vs RHB as RH vs LHB as RH 31 426 370 32 86 17 2 7 43 2 82 9 2 2 2 5 5 3 1 .232 .325 .346 .671 .279 72 106 vs LHB as RH 2005 vs RHB as RH 33 491 443 41 94 22 1 7 35 0 127 5 6 2 3 8 1 3 2 .212 .276 .314 .590 .280 64 87 vs RHB as RH vs LHB as RH 33 418 358 44 76 14 0 14 51 3 75 3 3 3 6 10 0 6 2 .212 .313 .369 .682 .228 77 116 vs LHB as RH 2006 vs RHB as RH 33 463 409 51 71 19 1 10 40 2 131 6 5 3 4 9 1 2 2 .174 .255 .298 .553 .225 50 66 vs RHB as RH vs LHB as RH 33 454 369 38 91 22 4 10 75 2 79 3 6 1 7 9 1 1 0 .247 .377 .409 .786 .288 98 136 vs LHB as RH 2007 vs RHB as RH 8 105 87 16 17 2 0 6 12 0 20 3 1 2 1 1 0 0 1 .195 .308 .425 .733 .175 108 65 vs RHB as RH vs LHB as RH 8 106 93 14 33 9 1 4 12 1 15 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 .355 .434 .602 1.036 .392 173 133 vs LHB as RH Now the ratios don't look like an injury's hurting him. It looks like there's been a change of philosophy that has hurt his ability to keep a decent K:BB against lefties. And he's become more of a strikeout/flyball pitcher and less of a groundball pitcher. But you're presenting a false dilemma: either he's hurt or there's been a change in philosophy. Obviously, both could be true. Furthermore, the change in approach (more drastic righty/lefty splits, more strikeouts, lower groundball:flyball ratio) over the past few years hasn't made him less effective. One could argue that he was a more effective pitcher in 2006 than he was in 2003. His arm slot has definitely lowered. Just because he realizes such is the case doesn't rule out injury. On his peripherals in BP 2007: "It`s might be nothing, but it could be the first warning sign that his years of hard pitching at tender ages are catching up to him." I hope he's not hurt, but the idea that the possibility is "remote" (as another posted argued) is wishful thinking. I would have traded him before the season started if I were the GM. I would be hated for it, but I would have done it.

Prior's surgery revealed that his arm has been damaged for at least two years. But he was third in baseball in pitcher abuse points in the 2005 season (Z was second), throwing as many as 131 pitches in a game. Just because Z throws a lot of pitches doesn't mean he isn't hurt. Will Carroll recently (within the last week) mentioned Z's change in arm slot as a sign that something could be wrong. And most of Z's comps in PECOTA flamed out in their age 25 or 26 seasons. There were several on this board suggesting that Z should be traded before the season started. As Steve Stone would say, there was a lot of first-guessing going on.

If Pedro were one of the 25, this would be news. That jeri curl can't die.

I miss Portillo's. :cry: http://www.portillos.com/store/ Thanks! I've had Lou Malnatis pizzas shipped before. So good.

I miss Portillo's. :cry:

Marquis?

Zambrano has historically started slow. If his numbers don't start to pick up by the end of may, then we can get worried. I think we can worry anyway. The change in arm slot is a sign of trouble.

What part was hogwash? After sampling other teams' announcers via MLB.TV, it does seem that Len and Bob don't question moves by teams nearly as much as some of their peers. Whether that's a good or a bad thing depends...

Often, when Brenly gives an opinion, it makes me happy that he's not managing the team. I think Len and Bob have good chemistry, but I'm much more of a Len fan than a Bob fan. Bob can be pretty damn funny though. Yeah. I like him as a broadcaster. Not so much as a hit-and-run obsessed manager.

Often, when Brenly gives an opinion, it makes me happy that he's not managing the team. I think Len and Bob have good chemistry, but I'm much more of a Len fan than a Bob fan.