bukie

I've got to speed this up. Here's the rest of my S-Curve: 25. Kansas State 26. Maryland 27. Cincinnati 28, Nevada 29. Iowa 30. VCU 31. UCF 32. Florida 33. Minnesota 34. Baylor 35. Washington 36. Seton Hall 37. Ohio State 38. NC State 39. Oklahoma 40. TCU 41. Syracuse 42. Belmont 43. Lipscomb 44. Temple 45. Indiana 46. St. Mary's (WCC) 47. Murray State (OVC) 48. New Mexico State (WAC)

Oregon wins the Pac-12, and slots in for me at #49, just ahead of Liberty.

Next 12: - Virginia Tech - No bad losses, non-con neutral wins vs Purdue and Washington, win vs Duke, 4-8 vs Q1 - Wofford (SoCon) - SoCon champ and auto bid, no losses outside the top 40, potentially no wins vs tournament teams, no close losses to top 40. 3-4 vs Q1, 7-0 vs Q2 - Buffalo (MAC) - MAC champ and auto bid, non-con win at Syracuse, at St. Bonnies, and vs San Francisco, bad loss at NIU, 2-1 vs Q1, 5-1 vs Q2 - Mississippi State - Non-con wins vs Wofford, Cincinnati, St. Mary's, Clemson, Dayton. 8-7 vs Q1, 4-3 vs Q2. - Louisville - Non-con wins vs Michigan State, Seton Hall, Lipscomb, Vermont, 4-11 vs Q1, worst loss at BC - Iowa State (Big 12) - Big 12 Auto bid, non-con win vs Ole Miss, 8-7 vs Q1, 3-4 vs Q2 - Nevada - MWC champ, best non-con win is Arizona State, 1-2 vs Utah State, 1-1 vs Q1, 7-1 vs Q2, bad losses at New Mexico and vs SDSU this week. - Kansas State - Big 12 co champ, 7-5 vs Q1, 7-3 vs Q2, best non-con win is Missouri, 1-2 vs Iowa State - Cincinnati - In AAC final, non-con wins vs Ole Miss and Xavier, swept by Houston, 4-4 vs Q1, bad loss at East Carolina, 8-1 vs Q2 - Villanova (Big East) - Big East co-champ and auto bid, non-con win vs Florida State, 5-6 vs Q1, 13-3 vs Q2 - Maryland - 6-8 vs Q1, 6-1 vs Q2, no notable non-con wins, best probably Hofstra, bad loss vs Illinois - Marquette - Non-con wins vs Buffalo, Wisconsin, Louisville, Kansas State, 10-5 vs Q1, 6-3 vs Q2, bad loss home to Georgetown My 17-24: 17. Virginia Tech 18. Buffalo 19. Villanova 20. Marquette 21. Iowa State 22. Mississippi State 23. Louisville 24. Wofford

Next 12: - Houston - AAC final, 2 losses all year, both Q1, home win over LSU - Texas Tech - Big 12 co champ, non-con neutral victories over Nebraska, Memphis and USC, home win over Arkansas, lot of good conference wins, awful loss to WVU - Virginia Tech - No bad losses, non-con neutral wins vs Purdue and Washington, win vs Duke, 4-8 vs Q1 - Purdue - B1G co champ, rough non-con, bad loss to ND, best non-con win was Belmont, 7-7 vs Q1 though - Wofford - SoCon champ and auto bid, no losses outside the top 40, potentially no wins vs tournament teams, no close losses to top 40. - LSU - SEC co champ, non-con wins vs St. Mary's, Furman, Memphis, UNC Greensboro, no bad losses, 9-3 vs Q1 - Florida State - Non-con wins vs Purdue, LSU, Florida, UConn, bad loss at BC, 8-5 vs Q1 - Buffalo - MAC champ and auto bid, non-con win at Syracuse, at St. Bonnies, and vs San Francisco, bad loss at NIU, 2-1 vs Q1, 5-1 vs Q2 - Wisconsin - non-con wins vs NC State, at Xavier, vs Oklahoma, worst loss at W Kentucky, 10-8 vs Q1 - Auburn - non-con wins vs Washington, Xavier, Murray State and Dayton. No bad losses, but just 4-7 vs Q1 - Kansas - Non-con wins vs Michigan State, Tennessee, Villanova, Marquette, New Mexico State, Vermont. 11-8 vs Q1, worst loss at WVU. - Mississippi State - Non-con wins vs Wofford, Cincinnati, St. Mary's, Clemson, Dayton. 8-7 vs Q1, 4-3 vs Q2. My 9-16: 9. Houston 10. LSU 11. Kansas 12. Texas Tech 13. Purdue 14. Florida State 15. Wisconsin 16. Auburn

With all the current auto bids and potential auto bids, there's still 75 teams in the at large pool vying for 38 spots, so some culling is needed. Here's the list of 25 more teams that I don't see having a chance at an at large bid: South Carolina Fresno St. Oregon St. BYU Utah Valley Tulsa Wichita St. Southern Miss. Grand Canyon Arizona South Fla. San Diego Utah DePaul South Dakota St. ETSU San Francisco Hofstra Butler Arkansas Dayton Davidson Toledo Providence Nebraska So, current S-Curve is here: 1. Duke (ACC) 2. Gonzaga 3. Virginia 4. UNC 5. Michigan State (B1G) 6. Michigan 7. Tennessee (SEC) 8. Kentucky ... 50. Liberty (ASun) 51. Big West champ (UC Irvine) 52. Old Dominion (CUSA) 53. A-10 winner (Saint Louis?) 54. Ivy winner (Yale) 55. Northeastern (CAA) 56. Sun Belt champ (Georgia State) 57. Vermont (America East) 58. Montana (Big Sky) 59. Northern Kentucky (Horizon) 60. Colgate (Patriot) 61. Bradley (MVC) 62. Gardner-Webb (Big South) 63. Iona (MAAC) 64. Prairie View (SWAC) 65. Abilene Christian (Southland) 66. Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC) 67. North Dakota State (Summit) 68. UNC Central (MEAC) Other auto bids not placed: Wofford ( SoCon ) Saint Mary's (WCC ) Murray St. (OVC) Utah St. (MWC) Buffalo (MAC) New Mexico St. (WAC) Oregon (Pac-12) Houston (AAC) Iowa St. (Big 12) Remaining at-large pool: Texas Tech Virginia Tech Purdue LSU Wisconsin Auburn Nevada Florida St. Kansas Mississippi St. Louisville Kansas St. Maryland Cincinnati UCF Marquette VCU NC State Florida Ole Miss Clemson Baylor Texas Oklahoma Washington Furman Iowa Syracuse Belmont TCU Lipscomb Temple Indiana Memphis Creighton Ohio St. Minnesota UNC Greensboro Alabama Seton Hall St. John's (NY) Arizona St. Colorado Xavier Georgetown

Oregon looking like they'll steal a bid also, unless Washington isn't getting one.

Been neck deep in youth baseball the past two days (and tomorrow now, yay us), so let me catch up. Vermont wins the America East, beating UMBC. Decent profile overall. UNC Central wins the MEAC over #1 seed Norfolk State. UNC Central probably the worst tournament team in recent memory. Iowa State wins the Big 12, boosting their profile significantly this week by beating Baylor, Kansas State and Kansas in succession. Utah State wins the MWC as the 2 seed, avoiding outright bid theft by SDSU. Prairie View wins the SWAC, possibly the best SWAC team in the tournament in several years. Still not a good team, mind you. Villanova wins the Big East, preventing Seton Hall from possibly stealing a bid. Buffalo wins the MAC, sealing a bid for sure. Montana wins the Big Sky, as the best team in the Big Sky, but still not at large worthy. Old Dominion wins the CUSA as the best CUSA team and a reminder of how far the CUSA has fallen. Duke wins the ACC with Zion, possibly cementing the #1 overall seed. Abilene Christian wins the Southland. New Mexico State wins the WAC. Based on all this, this is how my top 8 sits at this time (also Tennessee beat Kentucky in the SEC semis, and Michigan/MSU is the B1G final): 1. Duke 2. Gonzaga 3. Virginia 4. UNC 5. Michigan State 6. Michigan 7. Tennessee 8. Kentucky Maybe I'm being unfair to Houston, but there's just not a lot there to suggest they jump one of those 8 teams. They're probably 9th. As for the bottom of the bracket auto bids, here's how I see things: 68. UNC Central (MEAC) - Bad. Very bad. Their best two wins this season were yesterday and today, being their only two wins in the top 300. 67. North Dakota State (Summit) - They did get a Q3 win this week. 66. Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC) - They did get a win at Princeton back in November, which is their only Q3 win. 65. Abilene Christian (Southland) - They played at Texas Tech and lost by almost 40. That was the only Q1 or Q2 game they played. 64. Prairie View (SWAC) - They won at Santa Clara. That's a big deal for a SWAC team. 63. Iona (MAAC) - They were probably the best team in the MAAC. They have 2 Q3 wins. One was a neutral court win over Hartford. 62. Gardner-Webb (Big South) - They won at Georgia Tech, which is a Q2 win! This counts as a big deal round these parts of the bracket. 61. Bradley (MVC) - They actually have a Q1 win, by winning on a neutral floor against Penn State. They also beat SMU that same tournament. They also have 4 bad losses and haven't looked impressive aside from the MVC tournament in about 4 months. 60. Colgate (Patriot) - No Q1 or Q2 wins, but 10 Q3 wins and only 6 losses overall. 59. Northern Kentucky (Horizon) - They were the best Horizon team, but no Q1 or Q2 victories. Only 2 really bad losses overall. 58. Montana (Big Sky) - Won at South Dakota State, good enough for a Q2 win. Couple bad losses but not quite as bad as Northern Kentucky. 57. Vermont (America East) - They were the best team in the America East by far. That didn't give them many opportunities for good wins, and they were blown out in their only 3 chances at good wins. 56. Sun Belt champ (Georgia State) - I'll drop this about 4 spots if Texas Arlington wins, but Georgia State does have a win at Alabama. 55. Northeastern (CAA) - 3 Q2 wins, including at Harvard and neutral over Alabama, 3 bad losses keep them from being higher. 54. Ivy winner (Yale) - Yale has the best profile, including a win on a neutral floor against Miami. Harvard is probably 2 lower if they win. 53. A-10 winner (Saint Louis?) - At least Saint Louis beat Seton Hall and now Dayton/Davidson. St Bonaventure still lacks a single quality win this season. 52. Old Dominion (CUSA) - They won at Syracuse, a Q1 win, and won vs VCU, which is 2 wins against tourney teams. This is the first team that can say this. 51. Big West champ (UC Irvine) - If UC Irvine wins, they have wins at St. Mary's and Texas A&M. If Cal State Fullerton wins, they do not have any wins of significance and would drop about 8 spots. 50. Liberty (ASun) - 2 wins at Lipscomb which count as 2 Q1 wins. That could be 2 wins against tourney teams also, and they won at UCLA who is not great but still a Q2 win. No bad losses. I'll continue on at-large discussion in the next post.

VCU falls in A10 quarters, so A10 bid likely steals an at large.

Colgate wins the Patriot.

TCU led Oklahoma State by 20 with 15:50 remaining, and now the lead is 1 with 10 seconds left, OSU ball. TCU holds on and avoids another bad loss.

Taking a look at the potential at-large field, here are the top 105 in NET rankings (which I think should safely cover ANY team that would be under at-large consideration): Rank Team Conf Record 1 Virginia ACC 28-2 2 Gonzaga WCC 30-3 3 Duke ACC 26-5 4 Houston AAC 29-2 5 Kentucky SEC 26-5 6 Tennessee SEC 27-4 7 North Carolina ACC 26-5 8 Michigan St. Big Ten 25-6 9 Texas Tech Big 12 26-5 10 Michigan Big Ten 26-5 11 Virginia Tech ACC 23-7 12 Purdue Big Ten 23-8 13 Wofford SoCon 29-4 14 LSU SEC 26-5 15 Wisconsin Big Ten 22-9 16 Buffalo MAC 28-3 17 Auburn SEC 22-9 18 Nevada MWC 28-3 19 Florida St. ACC 25-6 20 Kansas Big 12 23-8 21 Mississippi St. SEC 22-9 22 Louisville ACC 19-12 23 Iowa St. Big 12 20-11 24 Kansas St. Big 12 24-7 25 Villanova Big East 22-9 26 Maryland Big Ten 22-9 27 Cincinnati AAC 25-6 28 UCF AAC 23-7 29 Marquette Big East 23-8 30 Utah St. MWC 25-6 31 VCU Atlantic 10 25-6 32 NC State ACC 21-10 33 Florida SEC 17-14 34 Saint Mary's (CA) WCC 22-11 35 Ole Miss SEC 20-11 36 Clemson ACC 19-12 37 Baylor Big 12 19-12 38 Texas Big 12 16-15 39 Oklahoma Big 12 19-12 40 Washington Pac-12 24-7 41 Furman SoCon 25-7 42 Iowa Big Ten 21-10 43 Murray St. OVC 27-4 44 Syracuse ACC 19-12 45 New Mexico St. WAC 27-4 46 Belmont OVC 26-5 47 TCU Big 12 19-12 48 Lipscomb ASUN 25-7 49 Penn St. Big Ten 14-17 50 Temple AAC 23-8 51 Indiana Big Ten 17-14 52 Nebraska Big Ten 16-15 53 Memphis AAC 19-12 54 Creighton Big East 18-13 55 Ohio St. Big Ten 18-13 56 Minnesota Big Ten 19-12 57 UNC Greensboro SoCon 28-6 58 Alabama SEC 17-14 59 Liberty ASUN 28-6 60 Toledo MAC 25-6 61 Oregon Pac-12 19-12 62 Seton Hall Big East 18-12 63 Butler Big East 16-15 64 Arkansas SEC 17-14 65 Dayton Atlantic 10 21-10 66 St. John's (NY) Big East 20-11 67 Arizona St. Pac-12 21-9 68 Davidson Atlantic 10 23-8 69 Colorado Pac-12 19-11 70 Xavier Big East 17-14 71 ETSU SoCon 24-9 72 San Francisco WCC 21-10 73 Vermont America East 26-6 74 Hofstra CAA 27-7 75 Providence Big East 17-14 76 UC Irvine Big West 27-5 77 Georgetown Big East 19-12 78 Missouri SEC 14-16 79 Northeastern CAA 23-10 80 South Carolina SEC 16-15 81 Fresno St. MWC 22-8 82 Texas A&M SEC 13-17 83 Oklahoma St. Big 12 12-19 84 Oregon St. Pac-12 18-12 85 BYU WCC 19-13 86 Yale Ivy League 20-7 87 Utah Valley WAC 23-8 88 Northwestern Big Ten 13-18 89 Tulsa AAC 18-13 90 Wichita St. AAC 17-13 91 Miami (FL) ACC 14-17 92 Southern Miss. C-USA 19-11 93 Grand Canyon WAC 18-12 94 Arizona Pac-12 17-14 95 UConn AAC 15-16 96 Southern CaliforniaPac-12 15-16 97 South Fla. AAC 19-12 98 Old Dominion C-USA 23-8 99 San Diego WCC 21-14 100 Rutgers Big Ten 14-16 101 Utah Pac-12 17-13 102 DePaul Big East 15-14 103 SMU AAC 14-16 104 South Dakota St. Summit League 24-8 105 Illinois Big Ten 11-20 Now, obviously there won't be 105 at large teams. We can pretty easily eliminate everyone under .500 for the year: 105 Illinois 103 SMU 100 Rutgers 96 USC 95 UConn 91 Miami 88 Northwestern 83 Oklahoma State 82 Texas A&M 78 Missouri 49 Penn State That pares us down to 94. Still a lot. Five of the teams have already clinched an automatic bid, so are out of the at-large pool: 13 Wofford (SoCon) 34 Saint Mary's (WCC) 43 Murray State (OVC) 59 Liberty (ASun) 79 Northeastern (CAA) Outside the top 105, the other following 6 at-large bids are assured: 114 Northern Kentucky (Horizon) 172 Gardner-Webb (Big South) 176 Bradley (MVC) 203 Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC) 205 Iona (MAAC) 222 North Dakota State (Summit) 6 other auto bids for single bid leagues: MEAC (251 Norfolk State) SWAC (210 Prairie View) Southland (174 Sam Houston State) Patriot (135 Colgate) Sun Belt (126 Georgia State) Big Sky (124 Montana) The remaining 15 auto bids are in leagues that have at least one team currently on the board: Conference USA (98 Old Dominion) Ivy (86 Yale) Big West (76 UC Irvine) America East (73 Vermont) WAC (45 New Mexico State) Pac-12 (40 Washington) A-10 (31 VCU) Big East (25 Villanova) MWC (18 Nevada) MAC (16 Buffalo) SEC (14 LSU) Big 12 (9 Texas Tech) Big Ten (8 Michigan State) American (4 Houston) ACC (1 Virginia) So, that's the field. Now to go about organizing it...

Clemson-NC State, a tale of two halves. Clemson 42, NC State 26 first half, NC State 33, Clemson 16 second half.

As much as I hate to admit it, Michigan lost to Penn State Didn't catch it for being a Q1 loss. Not convinced PSU on the road is any worse than any other Q1 loss though.

Looking at the top of the bracket, the ten best resumes vying for a 1 seed: Team Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Gonzaga 4-3 6-0 9-0 11-0 Virginia 11-2 5-0 5-0 7-0 Duke 8-4 6-1 7-0 5-0 Houston 5-2 9-0 5-0 10-0 Kentucky 10-4 5-1 6-0 5-0 Tennessee 7-4 6-0 6-0 6-0 North Carolina 9-5 7-0 6-0 4-0 Michigan State 11-4 5-2 5-0 4-0 Texas Tech 6-5 10-0 3-0 7-0 Michigan 8-5 9-0 2-0 7-0 The way I see it, these are the only 10 teams that could play their way into a 1 seed this week. As of where teams are at right now, I'm still thinking Gonzaga is safe for a 1 seed, but perhaps not the overall #1 if Virginia/Duke/UNC wins the ACC tourney. The only losses in this group to potential non-tourney teams right now is Duke at home to Syracuse (with Zion!), MSU at Illinois, and Kentucky vs Seton Hall. MSU probably has the best wins overall, though, and if they get through the BTT with wins over IU/OSU, Wisconsin/Maryland and Purdue/Michigan, that may be enough. Duke has looked ordinary since Zion was out, but if he's back and healthy Duke is an easy #1 overall seed. Houston has a good resume overall, but they only had 6 games all year against likely tournament teams, 4 at home. Texas Tech was really only effective within their conference, as their best non-conference win was probably Nebraska, which didn't age well. Here's my top 8 so far: 1. Virginia 2. Gonzaga 3. UNC 4. Kentucky 5. Duke 6. Michigan State 7. Tennessee 8. Michigan

North Dakota State wins the Summit League, and another likely play-in spot.

I mean, they were well into the at-large discussion anyway, but that discussion is over.

Northeastern wins the CAA over Hofstra, which has a borderline profile. Northern Kentucky wins the Horizon. Fairleigh Dickinson wins the NEC and a spot in the play in game.

CAA final will be #1 Hofstra vs #2 Northeastern. Hofstra is about even with Arizona State in profile. Horizon final will be #1 Wright State vs #2 Northern Kentucky, neither of which is close to an at-large profile. Summit final will be #4 North Dakota State vs #2 Nebraska Omaha, neither of which is close to an at-large profile. Top seed South Dakota State lost in the quarters and will be headed to the NIT. Patriot final will be #1 Colgate vs #2 Bucknell, neither of which is close to an at-large profile. WCC final will be #1 Gonzaga vs it doesn't really matter, but maybe St. Mary's.

Wofford wins the SoCon, and should likely get a single digit seed in the tourney. Top seed Iona wins the MAAC, but is still a potential play-in game candidate.

Liberty defeated Lipscomb to win the A-Sun. Lipscomb is an interesting and borderline at-large case with a bad loss to Syracuse not helping their cause. Bradley wins the MVC. Gardner-Webb wins the Big South, punching their first ticket to the dance. In the SoCon, Wofford and UNC Greensboro made the final, leaving Furman looking at a somewhat bleak at-large chance.

Murray State claims the first auto bid, defeating Belmont in the OVC final. Belmont to the at-large pool with a fairly decent profile. In the MVC, top seed Loyola lost in the semis to #5 Bradley by a bucket. Despite Loyola's run this year, it's not likely their profile is good enough for an at-large spot, so they'll have to settle for an NIT bid. #2 seed Drake also lost, which pits #6 Northern Iowa vs #5 Bradley in the MVC final. Winner might be a 16 seed, which is weird for the MVC. All four good teams made it to the SoCon semifinals, so the rest of that tournament should be a fun watch. Wofford and Furman have the best at large profiles of the four. In the NEC, the top two seeds, St. Francis PA and Fairleigh Dickison are through to the final. Neither is a viable at large candidate, and the winner is a likely play in game candidate.

In the SoCon, the quarters are played today, and the teams to watch are #1 Wofford (NET 14!), who is a likely at large bid, and #3 Furman (NET 43 with a win at Villanova). Could have an at large bid stolen rather easily here, as there are two other quality teams in the conference in UNC Greensboro and East Tennessee State.

In the Missouri Valley, #1 Loyola and #2 Drake advanced to the semis to face #5 Bradley and #6 Northern Iowa. The best profile out of the lot is Drake at NET 124, so again not really an at-large profile in the bunch.

Big South champ Campbell lost in the Big South semis last night, but their profile is terrible (NET 224) and #2 seed Radford is easily the best profile (NET 132), so Campbell gets the NIT consolation prize.

Belmont-Murray State in the OVC final today. Both teams have reasonable at-large shots, maybe Belmont slightly more than Murray State IMO. Interestingly enough, that is the only auto bid being decided today, as usually this Saturday is the final for 8-10 auto bids.