bukie

Shame Randle picked up the cheap blocking foul. Rebounding is an issue with him on the bench.

Continuing to foul Warren Carter is generally a good defensive strategy, as Illinois is going to keep getting 1 point every 2 shots.

St. Louis loses all tiebreakers except simple head-to-head against Green Bay. This is what you have to root for: San Francisco loses to either Arizona in week 16 or Denver in week 17 Carolina defeats Atlanta in week 16 New Orleans defeats NY Giants in week 16 St. Louis defeats Washington in week 16 Philadelphia defeats Atlanta in week 17 Washington defeats NY Giants in week 17 St. Louis defeats Minnesota in week 17 The Minnesota/Green Bay contest becomes meaningless then, because if Green Bay won out to go 8-8, St. Louis would win the head-to-head tiebreaker. If Minnesota won, St. Louis would still need to beat them week 17 to go to the playoffs anyway. If any of the above fails to happen, St. Louis is eliminated.

Some nice sites on the NFL playoff outlook and scenarios: NFL Playoff Status DVOA Playoff Odds Report

I wanted to start this last week, but it was all still too complicated and early. Now that things are starting to straighten out a bit (although there are still 24 teams (as of week 16) that have a shot at the playoffs), it's as good a time as any to take a look at the possibilities. First, the NFC (since I am a Bears homer): IN: 1.*yz-Chicago (13-2) 2. yz-New Orleans (10-6) 3. y-Philadelphia (10-6) 4. y-Seattle (8-7) 5. x-Dallas (9-7) 6. x-NY Giants (8-8) x-Clinched playoff berth; y-Clinched division title; z-Clinched first-round bye; *-Clinched home field advantage - First round playoff matchups: NY Giants at Philadelphia, Dallas at Seattle. ELIMINATED: Green Bay - WEEK 17, Carolina - WEEK 17, Atlanta - WEEK 17, St. Louis - WEEK 17, San Francisco - WEEK 16, Minnesota - WEEK 16, Washington - WEEK 14, Tampa Bay - WEEK 14, Arizona - WEEK 14, Detroit - WEEK 13 Now, the AFC: IN: 1. yz*-San Diego (14-2) 2. yz-Baltimore (13-3) 3. y-Indianapolis (12-4) 4. y-New England (12-4) 5. x-NY Jets (10-6) 6. x-Kansas City (9-7) y- Clinched division title; z-Clinched first round bye - Indianapolis is the 3 seed because of a head to head win over New England. ELIMINATED: Denver - WEEK 17, Tennessee - WEEK 17, Cincinnati - WEEK 17, Jacksonville - WEEK 17, Pittsburgh - WEEK 16, Buffalo - WEEK 16, Miami - WEEK 15, Houston - WEEK 14, Cleveland - WEEK 14, Oakland - WEEK 12 Playoff Matchups: NFC: NY Giants at Philadelphia, Seattle at Dallas AFC: Kansas City at Indianapolis, NY Jets at New England

Trib article stating Tank likely to get one more chance: http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/cs-061218haughtankjohnson,1,4786835.column?coll=cs-home-headlines

Not sure how the Bears are "running the best one out of town". Last I heard, Ian Scott was just fine. Plus, the Bears have been pretty patient with the Tank situation thus far. It's been the media pundits that have been calling for Tank to be run out of town.

I'm not saying there are more playoff-caliber teams in the AFC than the NFC. I do think the NFC gets often short-changed, though, on the whole. My point was simply that everyone struggles against opponents they have no business struggling against. Also, the NFC West is simply awful. Probably 4 of the 8 worst teams in the NFL. Unfortunately one of them has to make the playoffs. I do think the Bears, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, and Saints can play with any of the AFC teams, though. I also think the Bears, Ravens, and Chargers are a clear step above everyone else at this point.

You missed the Washington at St. Louis game. Yeah, I understand, it's an easy one to miss.

Yesterday, the defense allowed one actual offensive drive, and got burned for 2 big plays. 10 points were scored on a turnover and a stupid coverage penalty where the Tampa offense managed to move the ball a grand total of 9 yards combined. My only real concern was a lack of focus on defense after they got the big lead, and that the Mannings got burned twice on plays within 2 mins of each other.

Agreed. The Saints will be the only real NFC competition, and I'm not convinced that they'll be as tough as they've looked at some points. I'm not the slightest bit concerned about the Saints or the Seahawks in the NFC. The Giants, maybe a little. The Falcons, if they can make it, not at all. Good Rex can have a field day with the Cowboys' safeties, but Dallas's defense is fairly average all-around, which is a concern if the Bears can't get to Romo. TBH, the team I would be most concerned about playing would be Philly, and not just because they are the flavor of the week. They're the only NFC playoff team besides the Bears with a good defense, and if the offense can click with Jeff freaking Garcia helming them, they must be doing something right. Plus, they have a pretty balanced offensive attack. And, maybe I'm still a little bit paranoid from 2001. So, I guess if I were to rank teams in order of who I'd least like to see the Bears play in the NFC playoffs: 1. Eagles 2. Cowboys 3. Giants 4. Saints 5. Seahawks 6. Falcons 7. Anybody else who might make a run, like the Packers/Vikings/Niners/Rams/Panthers So, in my eyes, best case scenario for the Bears is for the Falcons to sneak into the playoffs, upset the 3 seed NFC East winner, and have the Seahawks win the other first round game, so it'd be down to the Bears-Falcons-Saints-Seahawks.

In that vein, though, isn't every NFL deal a 1 year deal with options for more years if the team decides to pay? Can't every NFL player be cut at any time for any reason, and the contract void out? Maybe he was trying to be clever, but...no.

Not sure what Peter King is on right now to think the Bears are the luckiest team in the NFL, and that the Saints are still the best team in the NFC. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/peter_king/12/17/week15/index.html It's like he looked at the final score, or just watched the overtime period. The only real break the Bears got was the lack of a replay on Davis' catch. Everything else went against them. The biggest problem yesterday was a total lack of focus on defense after getting a huge lead.

Good teams don't look as good when they're playing other good teams. Like when the Ravens struggled against a near certain playoff Browns team.

Grats to the offense for bailing out the defense and special teams today.

Bulls one game back from the top spot in the East now (2 in the loss column to DET, 1 in the loss column to CLE).

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php Defensively, the Bears are far and away the best in the NFL against the pass. They are 7th in the NFL against the run (Minnesota is far and away the best there). I'm not too concerned about the defense overall, as they have performed consistently well throughout the year, surrendering decent yardage to very good offenses, and surrendering almost nothing to bad offenses. As I heard in a quote earlier this week, it should be interesting to see if a team can score negative points. 31st ranked offense vs. the 1st ranked defense. Even without Vasher and Tank, the D should be able to hold Tampa under 10 points.

Explanation of the UUW law in Illinois: http://www.waalaw.com/PracticeAreas/Weapons-Charges.asp

Examples of unlawful use of a weapon (for Missouri, but I assume similar rules apply here): http://www.moga.state.mo.us/statutes/c500-599/5710000030.htm

Bounceback game against a suspect defense? Gotta go Manning this week. Not only will they really be pushed for a win to finally lock up a playoff spot, but it could really be a game of "last team to get the ball wins".

Posted this in the "Other Games" thread, but since power rankings were being discussed here, this is the ranking I agree with the most (and it's objective!): DVOA The weighted rankings factor more recent games in more heavily, so the Saints get a boost from that, but statistically they are the NFC's version of the Colts. Truly, none of the NFC contenders (NO, DAL, NYG, SEA) are good defensively, which bodes well for Rex. Actually, the teams I'd be most concerned about in the playoffs would be Philly or Carolina.

Technically, they're 12-17, and have 5 games to go to .500. A true .500 record probably makes the playoffs, though.

Here's a power rankings I can basically agree with: http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/6265494 It's objective, but I also agree with him that the Chargers are probably the best team overall right now. Was thinking of starting a NFL Playoff discussion thread, but it might be too soon yet.

Finally, an turnover to end a very sloppy defensive effort by the Bears.

Sloppy freaking game defensively.