bukie

I'm not so sure Syracuse doesn't still have to win the Big East tournament to get in. Even with today's win, their resume is well below that of several mid-major teams. The fact that they play so many non-conference games at home may really hurt them this year.

Was UNC ranked #1 going into the tournament last year, or did Illinois hang onto #1 even after losing at Ohio State? Either way, I don't think any team this year is as clear a favorite as those two were last year.

Connecticut taking the rest of the weekend off to prepare for the tournament they care more about, falling to Syracuse 86-84 in OT.

Updated to reflect that GW can't win the A-10's bid. Bubble teams everywhere hoping for the chance to pop GW one in the tourney. Also, I have all results tabulated for the 7 entries I've received so far (including mine...except I forgot Pitt, so I fudged mine a touch). Some interesting results, and I think this is going to turn out well.

Say goodbye to an extra at-large bid. GW just lost in the quarters of the A-10+ tournament, by 15, to Temple. Nobody else from that conference was even mentioned in at-large consideration.

If a Sunday final includes a team not expected to be in the field, then the committee has multiple scenarios (see 1999 tournament, Illinois). If every team involved Sunday is already planned into the field, the Sunday games make minimal difference. The only time I remember a team seemingly skyrocketing from a conference tournament performance was Maryland a couple years back, where they went from on the bubble to a 4 seed (which turned out to be unreasonably high, since they almost lost in the first round and did get bumped in the second). EDIT: Part of the reason the seeding doesn't change much is because of the pod system. Once the committee has teams arranged by pod, so that higher seeds don't get screwed out of their location, then to move even 2 teams around could offset entire brackets. Imagine even a scenario where an Ohio State-Illinois Sunday matchup were to decide which was a one seed and which was a 2 seed. However, Illinois had been slated to go to the Auburn Hills pod as a 2 seed, and Ohio State had been slated to go to the Dayton pod as a 1 seed. If Illinois won, then, what do you do? If you move Illinois to a 1 seed and moved them to Dayton with OSU to Auburn Hills, there might be a geographical disadvantage for Illinois/OSU that there wasn't in the previous pod setup. If you kept them in their pods and just put them against the other teams, there might also be geographical disadvantages (say Kent State won the MAC tournament and was slated to be in OSU's pod at Dayton as a 9 seed, but getting moved to Auburn Hills in Illinois' pod puts them closer than Illinois). There are just too many variables present with the pod system to have a game 20 minutes before the presentation affecting something as trivial as seeding.

Ok, first post updated with every automatic bid thus far. If you want to participate, please get me your list of 34 teams by 8pm CST tonight, since it'll take me a while to process the info for the next step. The next step will be filtering teams in and out of the field (depending on how many extra teams/slots we have at the end of the first step) and ranking the teams that we have put in to the field.

Does this mean I should post a top 33 with UCLA as the assumed 34th or should I come up with 34 schools and not include UCLA? Just come up with 34 schools and not include UCLA. You will have an assumed vote for UCLA.

Bit of a change of pace (or something new to argue about)... Interesting article by Yoni Cohen about how the extra road games for mid-majors are helping their RPI (and really killing Syracuse). Another perspective of the All Big-Ten team that I actually agree with.

I'm going to preface this by saying that I didn't see the second half yesterday, nor have I looked at the box score, just the final on a ticker. Dee Brown is overrated. He's not a very good scorer at all, 55th of 58 B10 players in PPWS. He's a very good defender, and he does a good job of not turning the ball over and distributing, but in all honesty he doesn't belong on the B10 first team. Now, feel free to say that I hate Illinois and all that it stands for, and that I'm bitter about yesterday or the season or whatever. you are bitter. the fact that MSU just can't seem to get over the hump against Illinois really inflames you, doesn't it? Dee has been atrociously inefficient this year offensively. The rest of his game has been outstanding, though, and has carried the team through several games this year, including last Saturday. If he was an efficient scorer, he'd have to be a unanimous all-Big Ten choice. As it is, he's probably Illinois' best choice, even over Augustine who, while great, is maddeningly inconsistent. Dee's best asset is the ability to affect the game in a positive way even when he's not scoring at an effective pace.

Just PM it to me, so it doesn't (one way or the other) affect other posters' selections.

I might move statistics and auto-qualifiers into my first post, so people don't have to keep searching through this thread to find my instructions :)

Now, save some of this for the mock selection committee... ;) Seriously, I think there are 2 1-seeds locked in, and about 6 teams that have a shot at it. Villanova and UConn are in, no matter what. After that, there's a hodge podge of teams with similar resume's: Duke, Memphis, Ohio State, Illinois, Gonzaga, Texas, Tennessee, North Carolina, UCLA, and even Kansas (if you just take into consideration what they've done since the start of the year, they'd have an outside shot at a 1...looking at their whole resume, it just doesn't stand up). Right now, I think still Duke and Ohio State/Memphis. If Memphis loses early, and Ohio State goes further than Illinois in the conference tourney, I think Ohio State is the 4th 1 seed.

I'm really worried about the 1st round no matter who Illinois plays. They've been a terrible foul shooting team all season and that has been the undoing of many Illinois teams in the past. With a good showing in the Big 10 tournament Illinois gets a 3rd seed. The committee will reward the Big East and rightfully so. Plus, with OSU winning the regular season title (good thing Illinois saw fit to lose at home to Penn St. ](*,) a lot depends on where they wind up. Here on the East coast nobody seems to know what to make of the Big 10. Is it a really good conference where they've beaten each other up or are they as mediocre as some of the records suggest? I think a loss in the conference tournament quarters nets Illinois a 3 seed. Right now they are looking at a 2 seed if they do well, but hard to put them behind just 3 teams for a 1 no matter how things shake out. I would think the only way the Illini get a 1 is if either 2 Big Ten teams get 1's, or the committee decides based on an Illinois/Ohio State BTT final who gets a 1 and who gets a 2. Right now, I think Connecticut and Villanova are 1's no matter what happens. Duke should also be a #1 if they can win a game in the ACC tournament. The fourth right now, IMO, is Ohio State, ahead of Memphis, Gonzaga, GW, Texas and Illinois.

Ok, I said I'd be back with stats, well here we go... NCAA Tournament eligible teams (teams over .500): 166 RPI, Team Record, Record in last 10 games, SOS, and records vs. top 50/100/200/all RPI teams here. Team efficiency statistics and tempo statistics here. These are essentially a measure of how well a team scores on a per possession basis, and how well a team prevents the opponent from scoring on a per possession basis. At this point, all conferences except the Ivy league are still awaiting conference tournament results, so no team has an automatic bid yet besides Pennsylvania. These are the automatic bids: AMERICA EAST ACC ATLANTIC SUN ATLANTIC 10 BIG EAST BIG SKY BIG SOUTH BIG TEN BIG 12 BIG WEST COLONIAL CONFERENCE USA HORIZON LEAGUE IVY LEAGUE - Pennsylvania (Nitty Gritty) METRO ATLANTIC MID-AMERICAN MID-CONTINENT MID-EASTERN MISSOURI VALLEY MOUNTAIN WEST NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY PAC-10 PATRIOT SEC SOUTHERN SOUTHLAND SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC SUN BELT WEST COAST WESTERN ATHLETIC There are also 34 at large bids. I am going to change what I want slightly initially. Send me the 34 teams you think should be at-large, like I asked, but then send an additional 10 teams that you think deserve consideration for at-large bids. Mostly I want this because I'm not sure we'll end up with enough teams, and I don't want people to stretch their at-large field just to get teams included. I really want people to send me their 34 best teams. And please judge teams on their merits, not on personal biases as much as possible.

As much as you feel comfortable with. I'm of the opinion that watching too many games gives you biases that can't be fixed with statistics anyway. ;) I'll post stats on eligible teams a bit later (I really should get some work done today...)

I was asked to do this again, so I'll do this again. Here's the skinny... The 2006 NCAA Division I Mens Basketball Tournament is nearly upon us. Every year, a committee of various team representatives locks themselves away for a weekend and picks and seeds the teams that will play in the 65-team tournament. 34 at-large teams, and 31 automatic qualifiers are chosen and seeded using a process that takes four days, from next Thursday to Sunday. Read about the process here. To get a taste of what it's like in the committee, I'll run a mock committee here, where any board member that would like can have a hand in selecting and seeding the teams in the tournament. We'll follow a process similar to the committee process described above, except with a little less live discussion. :) Here are the basic steps that will be taken during this process: - Step 1: By Thursday, March 9, at 8:00 pm Central time, all participants will select 34 teams they think should be the at-large selections in the tournament. Don't assume any teams will be automatic qualifiers until they have automatically qualified. (For instance, put Duke on your list even if you think they'll win the conference tournament, since by this time that tournament won't be over). Any teams that appear on at least 75% of the ballots I receive will at that point be IN, no bubble questions asked. Any team referenced at least once will be added to the at-large pool (BUBBLE). All other teams will be disregarded (OUT). - Step 2: Friday, March 10 - Once we have our IN teams, and our BUBBLE teams, each participant will rank the IN teams in order of strength, from 1 to however-many-teams-we-have. We will only concern ourselves with automatic qualifiers we already know for this time. We will use this to seed the top 4 lines, and assign pod locations based on those teams. Also, we will weed through the at-large pool, voting teams IN and OUT based on how many we have available. - Step 3: Saturday, March 11 - During this time, if anyone thinks any team should be added to at-large discussion, or moved up into the top 4, they can make a case for that team in this thread. By 7pm Central Time, every participant should send a ranking of all the remaining unseeded teams (basically 5 seed to play-in game) with the teams still under consideration, and the one-bid leagues. At this point, any team still alive in their conference tournament is still under consideration in the rankings. - Step 4: Sunday, March 12 - By this point, barring major conference tournament upsets, the field will be set, and I'll work on making sure all the NCAA rules are in place for seeding before the actual selection. I know, seems like a lot of work, but mostly if you want to be involved, there'll be maybe 3-4 submissions you'll be responsible for, as well as any commentary you want to add in this thread. I'll do most of the work regarding the bracket to make sure it follows NCAA rules (no conference teams can meet in the first round, pod 1-4 seeds shouldn't have home court disadvantage in the first round, teams can't play at home). If you would like to participate, these are the only things I ask: 1. Post here with your favorite team. That will count as your automatic vote for that team during this process. You don't need to include them in your at-large selections (just like an Illinois rep in the committee can't include them, they are assumed to vote for them), but if nobody else nominates them, they will still be off the board (like if your favorite team is South Carolina...that's great, but if nobody else votes them in they won't get at-large consideration). 2. PM me your list of 34 at-large possibilities by next Thursday at 8pm Central Time. I want to get part 1 done before I go to bed on Thursday, and it took me about 4 hours to do it last year. Don't make any assumptions about games that haven't taken place yet. Just send in who you think are the 34 teams worthy of at-large selections at the time you send it in (for example, if you think Indiana might be in if they win 2 games in the BTT, well, they haven't done that yet, so assume nothing). 3. If you want to participate, please participate in the whole thing. I'll keep posting to explain what to do next. EDIT: Moving all stats/teams in into the first post so nobody has to search for it (yes, it'll make the post long). RPI, Team Record, Record in last 10 games, SOS, and records vs. top 50/100/200/all RPI teams here. Team efficiency statistics and tempo statistics here. These are essentially a measure of how well a team scores on a per possession basis, and how well a team prevents the opponent from scoring on a per possession basis. These are the automatic bids: AMERICA EAST - Sat., March 11, Noon EST (high RPI - Albany) ACC - Sun., March 12, 1pm EST (high RPI - Duke) ATLANTIC SUN - Belmont (In-Depth) ATLANTIC 10 - Sat., March 11, 6pm EST (high RPI - Saint Joseph's) BIG EAST - Sat., March 11, 8pm EST (high RPI - Villanova) BIG SKY - Montana - (In-Depth) BIG SOUTH - Winthrop (In-Depth) BIG TEN - Sun., March 12, 3pm EST (high RPI - Ohio State) BIG 12 - Sun., March 12, 3pm EST (high RPI - Texas) BIG WEST - Sat., March 11, midnight EST (high RPI - Pacific) COLONIAL - UNC Wilmington (In-Depth) CONFERENCE USA - Sat., March 11, 11:45am EST (high RPI - Memphis) HORIZON LEAGUE - Wisconsin Milwaukee (In-Depth) IVY LEAGUE - Pennsylvania (In-Depth) METRO ATLANTIC - Iona (In-Depth) MID-AMERICAN - Sat., March 11, 7pm EST (high RPI - Kent State) MID-CONTINENT Oral Roberts (In-Depth) MID-EASTERN - Sat., March 11, 7:30pm EST (high RPI - Delaware State) MISSOURI VALLEY - Southern Illinois (In-Depth) MOUNTAIN WEST - Sat., March 11, 10pm EST (high RPI - Air Force NORTHEAST - Monmouth (In-Depth) OHIO VALLEY - Murray State (In-Depth) PAC-10 - Sat., March 11, 6:15pm EST (high RPI - UCLA) PATRIOT - Fri., March 10, 4:30pm EST (high RPI - Bucknell) SEC - Sun., March 12, 1pm EST (high RPI - Tennessee) SOUTHERN - Davidson (In-Depth) SOUTHLAND - Sun., March 12, 2pm EST (high RPI - Northwestern State) SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC - Sat., March 11, 8:30pm EST (high RPI - Southern) SUN BELT - South Alabama (In-Depth) WEST COAST - Gonzaga (In-Depth) WESTERN ATHLETIC - Sat., March 11. 9pm EST (high RPI - Nevada) There will also be 34 at-large bids, yet to be selected by the committee.

Found some of my stuff. DePaul was the only team we missed last year, and that was our last team in, so we were pretty close. Not sure who got in that we missed. As for a plan for this year, this is the article I based things off of last year: Inside the "bunker" Sometime tomorrow I'll start a thread about it, along with some statistical materials for each team so that those who are interested can have some stuff to read to learn about all the teams.

Looking for last year's thread so I can figure out how I did it...wouldn't mind doing it again, though. Oh, right, last year's thread is gone...blast! I'll try to find the documents I had last year :).

Pardon the injection of non-D1 hoops, but the best rivalry in college basketball just added another chapter: http://www.d3hoops.com/releases.php?release=46804 Stakes: - Calvin gained sole possession of first place in the conference, and thus the inside track to hosting the conference tournament (where, unlike D1, you pretty much have to win to make the NCAA tournament) - Calvin now leads the overall series between the overall teams 81-78, with Hope having a 6-point overall advantage in point differential - Calvin avenges an earlier shellacking at Hope, thus yet again splitting the season series. Now continue on with your D1 discussions, just wanted to give a shout out to the alma mater and the best rivalry in college hoops.

Even if it does count, they lucked out. I don't think he got it off in time. But this is the closest one I've ever seen.

That's the last conference game, so you're right no matter what. :wink: true, ok if we win one more big road game I think we win the conference. Either OSU or Michigan. Actually, the Wisconsin loss tonight opens up the door for Iowa, as if all the top 7 teams win out at home and don't slip up (any more?) against the bottom 4, Iowa finishes 12-4 and wins the conference outright. 5 teams would tie for second at 11-5, and OSU would finish 10-6.

Umm...wow. Who had Illinois by 15?

Why is it that I don't feel like this game is over yet? Oh yeah, Illinois is shooting less than 50% from the FT line.

Eventually Wisconsin is going to have to figure out that fronting Augustine offensively doesn't work. That's 3 times this game he's burned them with a dunk/easy layup, and I remember it happening at 2 crucial points last year in Wisconsin also. It's nothing new.