bukie

I'm back doing playoff game threads, this time having nothing to do with the Cards (was 4-0 for Cards playoff game threads last year...). Classic pitching matchup here tonight. Worth tuning in just for that.

Houston/Florida goes 9-9, the Cubs will have to go 16-2. You say toast I say yep Well, if the Cubs did go 16-2, there's a solid chance Houston goes at best 9-9... ...of course, Florida or Philly will win the wildcard in that case.

1 game from mediocrity. Maddux needs to win to keep his 15-win streak alive. Baker continues to boggle the mind with his choice of substitutions and unnecessary double switches. I do suppose a .340 hitter is the first guy you want to get out of that game though. Can't have the other team getting a book on him.

2 games from average again. I can understand Dusty's dilemma of balancing being competitive now with getting the future ready for next year. Of course, what Dusty doesn't understand is the players from both scenarios are the same.

The road to mediocrity continues. Hopefully with the use of players who can help the Cubs in the future.

I am less worried about Houston hitting 91 wins than I am one of 4 NL East teams getting to 90+ wins playing mostly against each other. Hoping each team plays .500 ball and all teams beat each other up equally (aside from the Braves) isn't out of the realm of possibility, but the likelihood that one team simply plays better than the others is high. The statistical average wins of the NL Wild Card team is 89.4 wins according to Baseball Prospectus (in their 1-million season simulation), so I felt that 91 is a bare minimum to feel safe about being enough wins to get to the playoffs. As to where I got the "Cubs need to gain about 11.5 games on the league", they need to gain 3 on the Mets, 4 on the Marlins, 5 on the Nats, 5.5 on the Phillies. Totalling 23 games. However, each game contains a winner and loser, so it's essentially split in half (rather simplistic model). Saying the Cubs gain a half game on the league on average when they win (which is accurate), 32-9 is a reasonable record to expect playoff competition. Which is daunting, but not impossible. Maybe if the Cubs run off 20 in a row, the outlook will change. :)

But better than losing a game or 3 in standings as well, too. at this point in the season, gaining one game every other week or so may as well be losing three. but i agree...they're playing better of late. I think they have to sweep Colorado next though. They can't just win series anymore.............they have to go on a roll. The weekend series for Wildcard teams: CHC @ COL (3 games) WSH @ PHI (Doubleheader Thursday) WSH @ NYM (3 games) PIT @ NYM (1 game) PIT @ PHI (3 games) MIL @ HOU (4 games) LAD @ FLA (3 games) Looks like the Cubs and Phillies have the easiest go at it. You would root hard for Milwaukee if the Cubs weren't neck and neck with them. Here's the way I look at it: There are so many teams ahead of the Cubs, it's hard to root for or against any one team. Essentially, when the Cubs win, they net a half game on the league (gain 1 game on half the league, keep up with half the league), and when the Cubs lose, they lose a net half game on the league (lose 1 game to half the league, stay even with half the league). Basically, in order to have a realistic shot at the playoffs, they need to make up a total of about 11.5 games on the league, meaning they'd have to play 23 games over .500 for the rest of the season. With 41 games remaining, that entails going 32-9 here on out, which would result in a 91-71 record. That's basically a bare minimum. So I'm not expecting a whole lot, just hoping the team can play well here on out.

What controversy? There was a strike in 1994 that ended the season in August. He retired during the strike from that and personal problems.

The word above is the one that concerns me the most and has for over 2 years now. This offense is generally not built to be consistent - it's just not. If Hendry does nothing to improve that aspect of the team in the last 1/3 of the season, then I hate to say it, but it will be mostly luck as to where we end up at the end of the season. The team is generally an all or nothing type of offense and when all cylinders are firing it's awesome, but when they aren't we get lots of solo HR's and don't generate enough runs to win close games. I'm eager to see what if anything happens by Sunday night. Actually, I like the offense, hate the offensive approach. 1B, 2B, 3B, C, and RF are above average offensive positions on the team, and SS/LF could be adequately covered within the system if someone let them. If the Cubs need anything, it's a CF. Not sure where Greenberg fits in there, and I'd really prefer not seeing Pie up until he can learn better pitch selection (which I believe to be an organizational issue...maybe the Cubs can trade him to Oakland/Boston, and then reacquire him when OBP is overpriced :) ). Beyond that, it's all about how the team approaches offensive production, and how Baker puts the offense in order, hopefully in a position to succeed. And that, really, is my biggest issue with Baker. He does a poor job of putting the team in the best position to succeed, instead attempting to enforce his hunches and get his stamp on the team. The pitching is poorly handled (especially the pen...does anyone have a defined role outside of Dempster?), and the lineup rarely makes logical sense.

Actually, I'm more concerned about the Mets and Astros than the Phillies, Marlins, or Nationals (or the NL West for that matter). The Mets have hung around despite getting next to nothing out of Piazza, Beltran, Glavine and Matsui. Pedro is anchoring an overall solid pitching staff, and their youngsters have been carrying the offense. If they can get any sort of production out of Beltran or Piazza, they could even make a run at the NL East (and this is coming from someone who never thought the Mets had a chance last year even when experts thought they had a shot at winning the division). The Astros' offense is being carried by Biggio, Berkman and Ensberg, and their starting pitching has been fantastic lately. Can they keep it up? Well, the Cubs will get their shots at them, at least.

I'm not going to tell anyone to relax, but try to remember that the season isn't made or broken on one game. It's a long season, and often times the perception is if the Cubs can't keep up with a team over the course of a week, they can't do so over the course of a season. It's not even really the time to be overly concerned about other teams. If the Cubs don't play well, then no amount of horrid play by other teams will facilitate the Cubs making the playoffs. At this point, it's all about the Cubs playing well consistently. They haven't played great over the last 5 games, but they've played decent enough to take 3 of 5. Doing that over the course of the rest of the season would put them at 36-23 over the rest of the year, and they'd finish with 89 wins. Enough to win the wildcard? Who knows, but enough to put them in contention. Can they and have they played better? Sure they have. However, I stand by my July 7 assertion that they need a winning July to be serious contenders for the playoffs.

Honestly, I don't know why the fans hate Barret with RISP. He's the best hitter on the team in that situation this year. Luck or not, he's one of the 3 hitters I want to see up there. If I were the D-backs, I'd have pitched around Ramirez and taken chances with Hairston/Perez.

Barrett is hitting .338 with 5 hrs with runners in scoring position this year.

Not sure I like the sac bunt by Murton, counting on Macias to pull through. Edit: Especially with a speedy Cedeno perfectly capable of stealing a base on first, and the pitcher having just walked the previous batter...

Somebody needs to take a deep breath and step away from the keyboard a bit. Maybe you should relax a bit. I'm getting sick and tired of this pathetic offense. Maybe I misread, but I don't remember being the one hypercritical of a Lee at-bat. A player having possibly the best season (along with Sosa's 2001) anyone's seen in a lifetime. But apparently he's a moron because he thinks fans were classless for relentlessly booing a player no longer on the team he pitched well for. And he occasionally hits into a DP. Curse all players that don't get on base at least half the time! ... Those that have only been following the Cubs for a few years, I can understand high expectations. But those that have followed the Cubs for 20 or more years should be able to understand that the good times happen so remotely, they should be more enjoyed than expected.

Somebody needs to take a deep breath and step away from the keyboard a bit.

Great call. Our bullpen is the best in the league and they have shown great ability to hold one-run leads. What team have you been watching? 7 innings from a starter is all one can feasibly expect. If the entire 6-man pen can't throw 1 inning a game and hand it over to Dempster, then find guys who can.

Well, the Cubs have just their third poor game in their last 20. Bound to happen every now and then.

Yes, because his value is at it's highest right now after one 0-4 game, and the Cubs have SS locked up long-term in an injured Nomar and an ineffective Neifi. You know, Ronny isn't the only Cub with a bad game at the plate today (see 3-4 hitters).

...3 behind the Astros(?), ugh! I like the Mets, and Pedro's, chances tonight against their high ERA rookie. Good call - let's go Pedro! In fact, if you just look at the starters for the Astros/Mets series it's hard to argue against the Mets taking 2 of 3. The Astros are 33-14 at home, best record in the majors. Not that hard to argue. :) Besides, the Mets might pass the Cubs if they win 2 of 3. I'm more concerned in general about both the Mets and Astros than the Nationals.

While I'm sure he's capable of doing it....How does Perez have a lower obp than batting average? Sac flies count against the OBP but not against BA.

The Cubs aren't that bad in the "clutch" overall. Their main problem is not getting runners in scoring position very often, so that the one or two times a game it happens, if they don't score it sticks out more.

if he'd get a chance to play regularly then maybe he'd do better Kid just had a rough day is all. I hope the fan base allows a player to have a bad day without resorting to boos, though.

Overanalyzed. Dusty made a double-switch in the 6th so he could leave Ohman in for the 7th. Ohman proceeded to give up a walk and a HR in the 7th.

Ari 27 LOB, ChC 12 LOB Not quite accurate, because that counts a runner on base with 0 outs that gets left at the end of an inning 3 times. Meaning, if, say Gerut doubled, and then 3 guys after him make outs after him without him scoring, then he counts as 1 LOB for each guy.