bukie
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Everything posted by bukie
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Coppin State won the MEAC championship 62-60 over top seed Morgan State. Georgia just won their second game today, 64-60 over Mississippi State. WAC championship going down to the wire too.
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Mississippi Valley State player hits two free throws with no time remaining to beat Jackson State 59-58 and win the SWAC championship.
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UCLA held on to beat Stanford 67-64 and earn the automatic Pac-10 bid. Temple beat St. Joe's 69-64 to earn the A-10 bid. UNLV beat BYU 76-61 to earn the MW bid. Kent State torched Akron 74-55 to get the MAC bid. Arkansas upset Tennessee 92-91 in the SEC semis.
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i got to admit i was pretty excited when i saw MSU with a decent lead late in the game. now there's no way we win tomorrow. brock flailing to the ground could've been very costly. imo you better be bleeding from the sockets if you're going to travel with the game winning rebound. Brock made a bunch of really dumb decisions late in the game, and he's fortunate he didn't cost them the game by getting himself trapped at least 3 times in the last 2 minutes.
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Clemson 78, Duke 74 Illinois 54, Minnesota 50 Wisconsin 65, Michigan State 63 Texas 77, Oklahoma 49 Kansas 77, Texas A&M 71
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I was amused by this comment at the end of the Clemson-Duke game: "The Clemson bench is going crazy, as most of them weren't even alive the last time Clemson made the conference championship, back in 1962." I mean...sure, the word "all" is definitive, but the chances of a 47-year-old walk-on jumping around on the bench is pretty slim...
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The thing that really hurts Arizona State is their non-conference. Other than Xavier, their non-conference slate was bad. They were blown out by the only other two decent teams they played.
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Yeah, I was going through the remaining bids, and there are a lot more bids available than it seems. If all the teams people said were out were actually out, there'd only be about 50 teams in the tournament.
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Memphis snags the C-USA bid by beating Tulsa 77-51. UMBC takes the America East crown beating Hartford 82-65. Georgia beats Kentucky in OT, 60-58. Georgia can still steal a bid, but it will be very, very difficult.
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So, if Illinois wins, where do you put them? Numbers of the single-bid conference teams (Kenpom, RPI, KP RPI) Oral Roberts - 81,62,52 George Mason - 92,64,62 Siena - 113,78,67 Cornell - 131,68,65 San Diego - 117,96,94 Big West - CS Fullerton - 120,90,86 Belmont - 159,77,79 Am East - Maryland BC - 148,88,91 American - 161,91,89 Austin Peay - 170,82,84 Portland State - 174,95,88 WAC - New Mexico State - 91,121,118 Winthrop - 111,110,107 Mount St. Mary's - 168,167,159 MEAC - Morgan State - 180,126,115 Southland - Northwestern State - 268,223,187 SWAC - Mississippi Valley State - 321,247,239 Illinois - 40, 137, 112 Do you put them above all these teams as a 12, or do you make them a very dangerous 13-14 seed? Or maybe make them play in the play-in game as a below-.500 teams and make them a dangerous 16 seed? :)
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Yeah, really don't see either of those teams beating MSU/Wisconsin, or even really keeping it close. I see a repeat of 99 happening with Illinois getting into the finals and just having absolutely nothing left to compete.
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I completely disagree with Dickie V and Bobby K that Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Oregon are better teams than Illinois State.
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Posted the results of Friday. Since there was quite a discrepancy among the last 2 4 seeds (15 and 16), send me the other 34 teams instead of 32, essentially teams 15-48 (you can rank them 1-34 if it's easier, just don't include the teams above). Other teams that are IN and not listed (19): Clemson Indiana Purdue Michigan State Kansas State Pittsburgh Marquette Connecticut Notre Dame West Virginia Washington St. Vanderbilt Gonzaga St. Mary's BYU Mississippi St. South Alabama Oklahoma USC Other auto bids: Atlantic 10 (St. Joe's/Temple) - Might be good to wait to send me the list until this game is over, so you know who is in automatically. Davidson Western Kentucky MAC (Kent St./Akron) Other bubble teams: Arizona Arizona State Arkansas Baylor California Creighton Dayton Florida Florida State Houston Illinois State Kentucky Kent State Maryland Massachusetts Miami-Florida Minnesota Mississippi Nebraska New Mexico Ohio State Oregon Rhode Island Southern Illinois St. Joseph's Syracuse Temple Texas A&M Texas Tech UAB UNLV Villanova Virginia Commonwealth Virginia Tech Wake Forest Other non-bubble teams that could potentially steal a bid: Georgia Illinois Minnesota
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Compiling the top 16 and bottom 17 lists now...going to take a bit with so many contingencies... Today's task (after I post the top 16/bottom 17): Send the list of the middle 32 teams (17-48) from among the rest of the teams that are IN, on the bubble, and require auto bids (namely, A-10 bid, i.e. Temple/St. Joe's has to be in there somewhere, if not both)
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Just waiting on one submission yet for top 16. EDIT: No I'm not... :)
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American did end up winning, btw, to secure the first NCAA berth in school history. Also, other scores throughout the day (since I actually took part in life this evening): Illinois 74, Purdue 67 Minnesota 59, Indiana 58 (Illinois v Minnesota in the BT semis) Temple 60, Charlotte 45 (Temple v St. Joe's for the auto bid) Texas A&M 63, Kansas State 60 Kent State 49, Miami (OH) 47 BYU 63, SD State 54 Miss St. 69, Alabama 67 Pitt 68, Marquette 61 Georgetown 72, WVU 55 And, many of the higher seeded lower conference teams (Alabama State, Stephen F Austin, Utah State, UC Santa Barbara) lost in their conference tourney semis, so even weaker teams will represent those conferences.
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So, Illinois in the semis against Minnesota, hoping to make it 3 wins in a year against the Gophers... Hey, I called it! :)
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Right, I forgot about San Diego. So, it's the bottom 17 then, which works out nicely. 13-16 seeds.
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Afternoon scores: Oklahoma 54, Colorado 49 Arkansas 81, Vanderbilt 75 Memphis leads Southern Miss 44-31 midway through the second half. American and Colgate are tied at 34 midway through the second half (Patriot League championship)
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Michigan State 67, Ohio State 60 Virginia Tech 63, Miami 49 Is Virginia Tech a viable at-large?
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Details for those who follow on Gamecast, plz. All I know is that he took the shot with plenty of time left in the game, and left South Carolina with 14 seconds to come back on the other end.
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South Carolina leads Tennessee 87-86 with 17 seconds to play.
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I'd say it's similar to the RPI hit of playing Northwestern twice in the Big Ten. Looking around, that's the only other team that's comparable in major conferences (Big 12 and ACC have very strong "weak" teams, Big East has just too darn many teams with too much variance to call any one team the "weak" team, and the SEC is just...chock full of bad teams, but no one team has been especially "weak").
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The primary issue with Pomeroy's stats is that is wildly overvalues teams that are inconsistent, like Marquette, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Arizona State. The true rating of those teams is somewhere in the middle, because an extremely good showing in a single game will shoot any team up the charts (heck, look at Illinois). It's a very valuable tool, and at least as valuable as the RPI if not more, though. It is a purely predictive rating, though, and says very little about how good a team's season has "been". In essence, Pomeroy's ratings are a good measure of who the "best" teams are, and the RPI is more of a measure of how much a team has "earned" a tournament spot.
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If it were up to me, I'd just take the locks and leave it at that, maybe add Kent State to the group if they lose in the conference tourney, and just give byes out for the rest of the bids, as nobody's earning anything. :) EDIT: Also, Texas held on to beat OSU, and South Carolina doing their best to make the SEC tournament interesting, leading Tennessee 57-55 midway through the second half.
