bukie

i thought there was a rule forbidding two teams from the same conference playing in a bowl game, save the NC game. I didn't know it was an official rule, but it seems common sense would say as much. I know they avoid rematches as much as possible, but Oklahoma and Kansas didn't actually play, so that wouldn't be an issue there.

Very true, and I suppose, indirectly, an objective model reinforces the idea that every game has significant meaning in a college football season, as it truly does.

If this happens I'm going to have to take up hunting, because breaking inanimate objects just won't cut it for how pissed off I would be. The only way I see this happening is if Mizzou loses, drops out of the top 4 of the BCS, and Illinois jumps into the top 14, so the Rose Bowl takes Illinois or Kansas over Missouri. I would imagine either option would result in a serious killing spree for any reasonable Mizzou fan.

I'd hate to say it, but only the people who actually watch and track every game should be qualified to vote. And that, largely, is the "statgeek" crowd. Ideally, it shouldn't come down to a vote, unless they are voting for which teams should be the 11th through 16th invited for the playoff.

I don't really like the objective models for College Football, mostly because there just isn't enough data to make a truly accurate predictive model. There are only 12 games per team, and on average 2/3 of those are among the same group of teams, so only 4 games are really used to connect teams across conferences. Because of that, a single result affects the results much more than it should. Schedule strength is difficult to accurately predict or manage in college football, because you have no control over at least 2/3 of your schedule, and the rest of it is made up several years ahead of time. Take for example Illinois' schedule this year. Five years ago, you make a schedule that includes Missouri and Syracuse. Back then, who had a guess that Missouri is the #1 team and Syracuse one of the worst BCS teams? This is primarily why I think that college football, more than anything else, needs to lend itself to subjective analysis. However, the way the BCS does it is just dumb. Having a public vote count for 1/3 of the rating? The public are, on the whole, poorly informed and hopelessly biased. It's a popularity contest. The coaches vote counts for 1/3 of the rating? How many teams you think coaches watch that aren't on their schedule in a year? How many coaches actually fill out the ballot? It's largely political posturing among the coaches vote. So, the BCS counts 1/3 of its rating on a poorly informed, hopelessly biased poll. 1/3 of the rating is on a narrow-sighted, political posturing poll. And 1/3 of the rating is based on a severely limited (only winning and losing matters) objective analysis on very limited empirical data. The system is never going to work. This sport, above any other, needs a playoff system.

It was OK? I thought it was Nebraska but you're probably right. If Georgia played LSU I'd have less of an issue with it but they didn't. It was both. And it was almost Michigan last year. I know it happened in the past, but last year the voters specifically voted Florida into the #2 to prevent it from happening again last year, and I could definitely see the exact same thing happening again this year.

I understand your point, except that OSU did play Wisconsin and they have 11 teams. OSU missed Iowa and Indiana this year. Unless you meant last year, in which case that makes sense. As for your earlier suggestion as to why a second Big East team wouldn't be considered, the answer to that is that there isn't a second Big East team in the top 14. Top 4 automatically makes it (the Kansas State rule from a few years back), a top 12 non-Big 6 school automatically makes it, after that it's top 14 teams that are considered for any remaining at-large teams. So, assuming Georgia finishes top 4, they'll go automatically. If Kansas sneaks into the top 4, they would go automatically. Missouri would get passed up if they lost and finished out of the top 4 or even in the top 4 and behind Kansas (call that one the Wisconsin rule).

So, BCS bowl picture: - Championship game: Simply put, if Missouri and WV win, they are in the championship game. If one of them lose, Ohio State is in the championship game. If both lose, all hell breaks loose. Ohio State will play somebody, and it'll basically be whoever the voters decide. Georgia is currently 4th, but aren't playing in their own conference championship game. Kansas is 5th, with the same dilemma. So, I would imagine the most likely participants would be Virginia Tech, LSU or USC, if they win. However, should all those teams lose (we're talking WVU, Missouri, Virginia Tech, LSU AND USC), the voters may actually jump Oklahoma all the way into the championship game. If they don't, all kinds of problems would be created with a game involving Georgia or Kansas. At this point, though, if everything goes according to form, the only team with a semi-legitimate gripe at not having a shot at the championship would be OSU. - BCS teams overall: Auto bids: - Ohio State - West Virginia - Virginia Tech/BC winner - Missouri/Oklahoma winner - USC if they win, USC/ASU/UCLA if they lose - LSU/Tennessee winner Up for grabs: 1. Georgia, since they will likely stay in the top 4 no matter which scenario plays out 2. Hawaii if they win will get an automatic bid (since they will stay in the top 12) 3. Kansas if they somehow sneak into the top 4 (I could see Missouri losing and staying ahead of Kansas, and still having one of the other conf. championship winners jumping both of them) 4. Take your pick of Arizona State, Illinois, or a favored BCS championship loser (Missouri, Virginia Tech, USC) I do agree, though, that if Ohio State sneaks into the BCS championship and Illinois sneaks into the top 14 of the BCS, the Rose Bowl will likely take Illinois.

BTW, I included the 6-pt loss to Missouri as a moral victory, which might be the best thing the Big Ten has going for it this year, schedule-wise.

Best Big 10 OOC win is a take-your-pick among Washington, WSU, Pitt, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Ball State, Miami (OH) or a 6-point loss to Missouri.

ESPN speculating that if Oklahoma wins the Big 12, Missouri and Kansas fans will really hate Illinois again: BCS Projections

Yeah, my bad, I meant to type Arizona.

Yes, but only if Oregon beats Oregon State. Then yes, UCLA would go to the Rose Bowl. EDIT: Speaking of which, how hilariously bad would a UCLA-Illinois Rose Bowl be? :) Who would go if Oregon State beats Oregon? I was looking at the tiebreakers on the Pac-10 Website and figured out the 'If Oregon beats Oregon State' scenario. But if Oregon State beats Oregon then ASU, OSU, USC, UCLA are all tied. The first tiebreaker is how you did against the other teams you're tied with which eliminates OSU since they're 0-3 while the other three would all be 2-1. Doing that again and the teams are all 1-1 against each other. Then it says... which confuses me. Well, it would go down to the game against the next team in the standings, which via the requirements for the tie, would be Arizona. USC is the only team of those three that beat Arizona, so thus USC would go to the Rose Bowl.

Yes, but only if Oregon beats Oregon State. Then yes, UCLA would go to the Rose Bowl. EDIT: Speaking of which, how hilariously bad would a UCLA-Illinois Rose Bowl be? :)

They're the same thing as "We are!" "ND!" True. But that one has the advantage of not being the only chant we ever use. In any case, Mizzou is owning Kansas right now. To be fair to Illinois and Missouri, though, in a typical year they are really only using the cheer two or three times, so it doesn't get old.

Well, Illinois should move up to #15 at least after the carnage this week, pending the Oregon game. If Oregon loses, Illinois should be #14 (moving ahead of Texas and Virginia). Next week's ACC championship could bump the Illini up another spot to 13-14. EDIT: Also, as of this point, I am rooting for a national championship fiasco of Georgia making it without even playing in its own conference championship game, against Ohio State, a team left for dead 2 weeks ago.

I'd guess LSU only drops to, say, #4 with their loss today, with the Mizzou/Kansas winner #1, WVU #2, OSU #3. Georgia in at #5, with VT at 6, USC 7. No way Georgia will make the title game if they don't even play in the SEC championship, so then if LSU loses again, I wouldn't be surprised to see VT or USC jump Georgia to play in the title game.

Ed Wade?

I may be off base here, but I think the only point OMC is trying to make about Cobb's off-the-field exploits was that, unfortunately, that kind of behavior wasn't all that uncommon. Does it excuse the behavior? Of course not. As racism and sexism went back then, though, that kind of thing was all too common. In OMC's point of view, Cobb wasn't a villain of the era, he was just a somewhat common product of the era.

So, from basic inflection, Auburn = Axis Powers, or Al Qaeda.

Question: Are you submitting this analysis for college credit, or was this just for fun? If it's the former, I just wanted to note that the graphs in the appendix come up very blurry for me, such that the axis labels are completely unreadable. Also, I found it odd that the graphs with the least variance between models appeared to be Boston, LA and Cleveland. Curious if that's merely coincidence or if there was some correlation there between quality of team and consistency of the model.

I think geocities is angry that you used their bandwidth (i.e. the site is blocked due to excess data transfer...I would imagine it's so highly limited it probably allowed a total of 10 views or so)

Unlike my usual adversaries who just love to egg me on? They know I have a short fuse. Please don't take this the wrong way, but if the things others say don't deserve to be dignified with a response, then simply don't dignify them with a response. It's the response that many are looking for, most likely. There's no need to defend any kind of internet "honor", even if someone is in the complete wrong. Even a response of "Please keep this up" is basically asking for an internet fight, as cool as those can be. You appear to be very strongly opinionated on the South and Ty Cobb, which are in particular, two polarizing subjects throughout the country, let alone on this board. If you have a point to make about things then simply make it. If it doesn't change the naysayers' minds, then nothing will anyway, so there's no point to further discussion/bickering.

The loser of this weekend's game is guaranteed to still be in the top 12 of the BCS at the end of the year, so the Big 12 will undoubtedly have 2 BCS teams. Actually, a Missouri-Illinois rematch in, like, the Fiesta Bowl or Sugar Bowl would be pretty funny.

They shot 57% for the game. With their defense, if they can even come close to that kind of shooting in a game, they can play with anybody. Tonight's game will say a lot about whether this Illini team can be competitive in the Big Ten this year.