bukie

I think the Philly, NO and GB games just about make up for the Carolina, Tampa, and Atlanta games earlier in the year. It all balances out.

Yeah, the Bears would get blown out if they ever had to play the Panthers, Bucs, Falcons or Vikings...

Punting from the opponents' 33 yard line is a slightly worse idea than challenging that punt bounce.

He bases that analysis completely off point differential in games (including a calculated strength of schedule based on the same information). Wins and losses don't directly affect it at all. It's not as "fair" or "sensible" as a system that relates all wins and losses equally, but it's a much better predictor of future performance (thus why he calls it his "predictor"). He actually runs three separate ratings, one on pure point differential, one on pure wins/losses, and one 50/50 combination of the two. Agree with some of it,but some is off I think, but that's a pretty cool ranking system The main drawback to this and Ken Pomeroy's system (http://www.kenpom.com) is that it's still early enough in the season that a blowout or two in either direction can really affect the overall standing of a team. As the season progresses, the systems get more and more accurate.

He bases that analysis completely off point differential in games (including a calculated strength of schedule based on the same information). Wins and losses don't directly affect it at all. It's not as "fair" or "sensible" as a system that relates all wins and losses equally, but it's a much better predictor of future performance (thus why he calls it his "predictor"). He actually runs three separate ratings, one on pure point differential, one on pure wins/losses, and one 50/50 combination of the two.

Wow you see I really dont get the point to a post like this. First of all where is the reasoning to say you would rather have Pie out there than Anderson. Looking at Anderson's numbers the past few years they're pretty much average numbers. What in the world has Pie done for the Cubs to make you think he would be better than anderson out there. I'm a big Pie fan and still feel he has potential but i'm not dumb enough to say i'd rather have him than anderson. By no means am i saying that the cubs should sign him because i'd prefer them not too but then again I wouldn't be mad if they signed him to a cheap contract. I'm pretty sure the same idiots posting those smartass remarks are the same ones who said "oh good no", "Sign Gaetti" when the cubs ended up signing Edmonds and how did that work out. Just because the guys is old doesn't mean he can't be of some use, its not the cubs would be signing him to a multiyear deal. Pie has potential, Anderson had production. Pie makes the league minimum, Anderson would cost several million. Anderson would be a signing that makes no sense at any level. Pie at least makes sense monetarily and with the hope of the type of production he's actually had in the minors given regular time in the majors.

For a more stat-oriented POV, here's the top 25 according to Sagarin's predictor (and some of this will look weird, but it has a lot to do with performance vs. perception): 1. North Carolina 2. Duke 3. Gonzaga 4. Pittsburgh 5. Georgetown 6. West Virginia 7. Connecticut 8. Kansas 9. Clemson 10. Purdue 11. Oklahoma 12. Louisville 13. Missouri 14. Memphis 15. Ohio State 16. Tennessee 17. Xavier 18. UCLA 19. Kansas State 20. Texas 21. BYU 22. Illinois 23. Notre Dame 24. Villanova 25. Davidson Other notables: Wake Forest 26, Syracuse 29, Arizona State 30, Michigan State 32, Baylor 34, Marquette 57

Coaches have no idea what's going on outside of the teams in their conference and on their schedule, for the most part, at least until March. Plus, the ones that do know what's going on will consistently rank teams from their own conference higher than average in an effort to boost perception of the conference.

I said, Arizona beat Gonzaga. No further explanation necessary. People don't watch other games that don't involve big name or ranked teams. Yeah that makes no sense though... It's a popular vote by coaches (assistants?) and media. Legacy and televised games will tend to dominate the mindset of those type of crowds.

I said, Arizona beat Gonzaga. No further explanation necessary. People don't watch other games that don't involve big name or ranked teams.

Or the Bears tonight, one of those.

Could you explain who would be decent, just curious? Most any of the writers from BP, BA, and the rest of the SABR community. Neyer's been writing analytically for years about baseball, and his admittance is long overdue.

Oh right, Baylor is good now. That will take some getting used to.

Arizona beat Gonzaga, and they're Arizona. Stanford is Stanford, and beat...Northwestern, I guess?

New ESPN Top 25 out: 1. North Carolina (31) 11-0 775 2. Connecticut 10-0 737 3. Pittsburgh 12-0 715 4. Oklahoma 11-0 683 5. Duke 10-1 651 6. Wake Forest 10-0 552 7. Gonzaga 8-2 499 8. Texas 9-2 486 9. Georgetown 8-1 476 10. UCLA 8-2 465 11. Notre Dame 8-2 398 12. Xavier 9-1 392 13. Ohio State 8-0 371 14. Syracuse 11-1 368 15. Purdue 9-2 341 16. Villanova 10-1 324 17. Arizona State 9-1 306 18. Michigan State 8-2 254 19. Louisville 7-2 231 20. Clemson 12-0 218 21. Tennessee 8-2 215 22. Baylor 9-1 163 23. Minnesota 10-0 78 24. Memphis 6-3 60 25. Marquette 9-2 58 Others Receiving Votes Brigham Young 44, Davidson 39, Michigan 38, Missouri 28, Dayton 26, Butler 14, Saint Mary's 14, Miami (FL) 10, Kansas 10, Arizona 9, Wisconsin 9, West Virginia 5, Florida 4, Illinois State 3, LSU 3, Stanford 3. AP: 1. North Carolina (71) 11-0 1,775 2. Connecticut 10-0 1,693 3. Pittsburgh 12-0 1,618 4. Oklahoma 11-0 1,580 5. Duke 10-1 1,486 6. Wake Forest 10-0 1,294 7. Gonzaga 8-2 1,154 8. Notre Dame 8-2 1,116 9. Texas 9-2 1,108 10. Purdue 9-2 1,083 11. Michigan State 8-2 907 12. Georgetown 8-1 880 13. UCLA 8-2 873 14. Xavier 9-1 861 15. Ohio State 8-0 766 16. Tennessee 8-2 758 17. Syracuse 11-1 742 18. Villanova 10-1 594 19. Louisville 7-2 521 20. Arizona State 9-1 477 21. Baylor 9-1 466 22. Clemson 12-0 462 23. Minnesota 10-0 198 24. Michigan 8-2 183 25. Missouri 9-1 71 Others Receiving Votes Memphis 70, Marquette 69, Davidson 66, Butler 40, Dayton 25, Saint Mary's 25, Illinois 20, Brigham Young 18, Maryland 16, Texas A&M 11, Kansas 10, Florida 8, Florida State 8, Stanford 8, Miami (FL) 6, Wisconsin 5, UNLV 1, West Virginia 1, Western Kentucky 1, George Mason 1. Wake Forest, IMO, is hugely overrated right now, as their best win is probably Indiana.

Bears need to win out to make the playoffs. If the Vikings lose, the Bears win the NFC North, and are the 3 seed, and would host Dallas, Tampa, Philly, or Minnesota. If the Vikings win, but the Cowboys and Bucs lose, the Bears get the 6 seed and play at Minnesota. It sounds to me like a lot of the media, and probably many fans, are assuming 10 wins, which tells me they are probably going to lose tonight. It would not surprise me to see the Bears lose tonight or win a close one. It would surprise me immensely to see the Bears win in a blowout.

The most annoying thing to me about the game (similar to the Clemson game a few weeks back) is that both teams should already be ranked, but since they aren't, the loser is going to have to work twice as hard to even get back into the ranking discussion.

Bears need to win out to make the playoffs. If the Vikings lose, the Bears win the NFC North, and are the 3 seed, and would host Dallas, Tampa, Philly, or Minnesota. If the Vikings win, but the Cowboys and Bucs lose, the Bears get the 6 seed and play at Minnesota.

Yeah, the only good team they'll have to play twice is Kansas. KSU, Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa State twice each should be able to pad the conference record. Illinois, on the other hand, gets no home game with Northwestern and no road game at Iowa.

Can't wait for this game, I've got second row floor seats. It's my first BR game, and it should be competitive as always. If Mizzou doesn't get us this year, it could be a long long time until they do. According to both Sagarin and Pomeroy, it's actually a battle between two top 20 teams. Both of them doing better than expected at this point.

The Broncos collapse is Mets-like in its hilarity. The only way it could be topped is if the Chargers lose to them in some equally hilarious fashion next week. I wonder what game is going to be flexed to Sunday night. According to ESPN it's the Denver-San Diego game. Miami vs the Jets would be much better. I think the reason they went away from that matchup is that the Jets could very well be eliminated before they even took the field if they played that as the Sunday Night game. The Denver-SD game is a guaranteed both-teams-win-and-they're-in game. I thought the Jets were in a win and in situation with Miami. The winner takes the division and the loser has to hope New England loses to grab the wild card. That's what I thought, at least. If New England wins, the Jets are out no matter what happens. They can no longer get the wildcard, as they lose the tiebreaker to Baltimore, and to win the division, they need to win and have NE lose to force a tie.

NHL Adjusted standings for the week ending 12/21 (spoilered for lots of numbers): Power rankings for those who don't like numbers: 1. Boston 2. San Jose 3. Chicago 4. Detroit 5. New Jersey 6. Philadelphia 7. Vancouver 8. Montreal 9. Minnesota 10. Pittsburgh 11. Washington 12. Anaheim 13. NY Rangers 14. Buffalo 15. Calgary 16. Phoenix 17. Florida 18. Colorado 19. Nashville 20. Toronto 21. Columbus 22. Los Angeles 23. Ottawa 24. Carolina 25. Edmonton 26. St. Louis 27. Atlanta 28. Dallas 29. Tampa Bay 30. NY Islanders

The Broncos collapse is Mets-like in its hilarity. The only way it could be topped is if the Chargers lose to them in some equally hilarious fashion next week. I wonder what game is going to be flexed to Sunday night. According to ESPN it's the Denver-San Diego game. Miami vs the Jets would be much better. I think the reason they went away from that matchup is that the Jets could very well be eliminated before they even took the field if they played that as the Sunday Night game. The Denver-SD game is a guaranteed both-teams-win-and-they're-in game.

I think its the "Common Opponents" tiebreaker. Funny thing, if both teams win out, it ends up being conference record that decides the tiebreaker. If the Bears lose this week and win next while the Vikings lose, it's division record, and if the Bears win this week, and both lose next week it's common opponents.

yeah that was pretty funny. in other news, i wonder how a qb with 10 years in the nfl (mcnabb) still doesn't have that clock in his head to know that he should throw the ball after he's been standing in the pocket for 5 seconds. You're talking about a QB who was surprised that the game ended tied after 15 minutes of OT. I think his clock is broken.