bukie

Go tie! Go tie! With ties being such unlikely outcomes, I am not going to assume one can exist in my "perfect scenario". I sure as hell won't root for Atlanta to blow a 17 point lead and sweat through an OT with the Bears division hopes hanging in the mix. Me neither, but if it happens, it happens.

Go tie! Go tie!

Actually, best case scenario for the Bears is a Philly loss and a Minnesota/Atlanta tie. ;)

3 of 4 right, but only 27 points. Should've kept USF up higher. Only lost 2 points on CSU-FSU.

It'll be a lot easier if Minnesota loses to Atlanta this week, though. Bears would have a shot in week 17 with a win and a Vikes loss to the Giants. If Minnesota wins, the chances are probably still too slim to matter anyway. Philly still probably has to lose to the Skins this week and beat Dallas. Tampa has to lose to SD this week. And one of Tampa or Atlanta has to lose next week to the Raiders and Rams respectively. Yeah, if Philly AND Tampa lose this week, then things start getting interesting.

So...then Notre Dame, which then reminds you of hobbits.

That is a pretty cool statistic I should say regulation losses. We have a crapload of OTLs. That makes it less cool. We're only .01 behind the Sharks for No. 1 in the league in GFA, and Kaner is tied for fourth in scoring. Not to mention their Pythagorean shot through the moon after last night.

If there's more runs batted in by the singles... then yes, they are better. There is never a situation where a single will drive in more runs than a home run.

Hey now, keep the thread on topic. The topic includes all caps 4 EVA, Milton Bradley, and black men.

Illinois has been much more efficient in their games defensively, and while Michigan has been more efficient offensively, Illinois has still been efficient on both ends of the court. In terms of predictive value and discussion on how good a team really is, things like offensive and defensive efficiency matter a lot more than who a team has beaten. Also, the team Illinois lost to, Clemson, rates really, really high right now (about as high as Duke, higher than UCLA and much higher than Maryland). Michigan is already in the "also receiving votes" category in both polls, which is right about where they should be. Illinois and Northwestern are just barely starting to get vote consideration in the polls, which is why I think they should be a bit higher. Ohio State and Purdue are really the only top 25 teams right now in the Big Ten, but really, Illinois is right there on the cusp statistically, which is as surprising to me as anything, really. There are maybe 6 Big Ten teams between 26 and 50 right now (Illinois, MSU, Northwestern, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa), although Wisconsin and Iowa are borderline. If the teams all play according to plan, with no upsets, which would match the standings I posted a couple pages back, there'd be a decent argument for 7 teams from the conference in the tourney. Only 4 are really getting consideration right now (MSU, Purdue, Wisconsin, OSU), but Michigan is probably getting the most pub of the rest.

I wish. Among the possibilities of Dunn, Bradley, Hermida, and using what the Cubs already have on the team/in the system, I think that Bradley would provide the highest production to cost ratio, unless Dunn's perceived value is so low that he could be acquired for less than Bradley.

Chit chat? On an internet forum? We wouldn't want that! Yeah, if there's anything this board needs, it's a social forum with the ability to make chit-chat threads.

The Big East now has seven teams in the top 15 in the coaches poll. Now, I'm not going to say that the Big East isn't the best conference in the country this year, but the Big East love in the polls is a little ridiculous. At this point in the season I'd say the Big East is a good deal overrated as a conference, and the Big Ten is a touch underrated as a conference (Purdue, Ohio State, NW, Illinois more so than MSU or Wisconsin). At this point in the season, I don't think Notre Dame, Villanova or Syracuse has any business being in the top 15 (this is before the Syracuse loss last night). Notre Dame is probably better than they've played, but in terms of how they've played they're more of a borderline top 25 team. Marquette also has no business being ranked. West Virginia is underrated, if anything right now. Ohio State has probably looked the best of any Big Ten team at this point of the season, and Purdue is hurt from a horrible matchup (and subsequent drubbing) with Duke. I'd probably agree that these are likely the only top 25 teams from the Big Ten right now, but Illinois and even Northwestern deserve more consideration than they've gotten. Everybody's hung up on how poorly Wisconsin has looked, while at the same time convinced that Wisconsin has to be one of the 4 best teams in the Big Ten. As of right now, though, according to Pomeroy and Sagarin, they're more like the 7th or 8th best team in the conference (Ohio State, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State, Northwestern, Michigan, even Iowa). Heck, according to both Pomeroy and Sagarin, the ACC has been the best conference, with the Big East, Big Ten and Big Twelve close together for 2nd to 4th.

Technically, if they lose and Minnesota wins, they're still playing for a bye, since Minnesota could still tie them and take the bye with a head-to-head victory. Of course, in that scenario the Bears are already eliminated, so yeah.

I was too busy celebrating my fourth birthday to watch the big game. I was seven during the entire 1985 season. I remember going into the 1986 season basically expecting the Bears to destroy every team, which they did in the regular season. And then they lost in the divisional round of the playoffs to Washington. By a lot. From that point on, I've hated the Redskins.

i understand where you're coming from with these statements, but Detroit is freakishly potent with a pulled goalie. the other night Phoenix outplayed them the entire game, until 1:30 left where Michalek stupidly puts the puck over the boards in the neutral zone and draws a minor. and predictably, Hossa sets up Franzen for the tie and Hank undresses Bryzgalov for the shootout W. not that this anecdote alone means much, but they did essentially the same thing in the Hawks and Kings games, among others i'm forgetting atm. they could be outscoring teams by a wider margin but it really looks like they're coasting right now. I didn't intend that statement to suggest that Detroit isn't good (I mean, even with their efficiency underperforming, they still have the 4th best efficiency), but I can see how it could be construed that way. If I had better information on shots/shots on goal for each team, I could probably run those as sort of a second-order pythag using shots. I just noticed that Detroit and Minnesota were freakish outliers in terms of difference between win production and goal production. In a league where all but 4 teams are between -0.1 and 0.1 in pythagorean difference, Detroit was over .2 and Minny was under -.2.

Detroit is 1st in S/G and 3rd in SA/G (behind San Jose and Los Angeles). Chicago is 10th and 18th. Is there a place that has S/SA (or, even better, SOG/SAOG) listed for all teams on the same page?

I was going to be surprised at how nobody caught on in 1985...until I remembered that you'd have to be about 30 to remember that much...yeah...

It also has Mizzou beating Illinois. Something must be off in his calculations. ;) EDIT: On a side note, I'm also rooting for NW to make the tourney this year, and the combination of a somewhat favorable conference schedule and their performance thus far should be enough to ensure it.

Calculated Power Rankings for the week ending 12/14: 1. San Jose 2. Boston 3. Chicago 4. Detroit 5. Vancouver 6. Minnesota 7. New Jersey 8. Pittsburgh 9. Montreal 10. Philadelphia 11. Washington 12. Anaheim 13. NY Rangers 14. Buffalo 15. Los Angeles 16. Edmonton 17. Colorado 18. Calgary 19. Ottawa 20. Phoenix 21. Nashville 22. Florida 23. Columbus 24. St. Louis 25. Toronto 26. Carolina 27. Atlanta 28. Dallas 29. Tampa Bay 30. NY Islanders Numbers...(spoilered for sanity)

Dallas has not clinched a tiebreaker over the Bears. The only way they can be eliminated is if Atlanta, Tampa and Minnesota all win this week, which is impossible. I did say this last week, btw. ;)

They've done better than I thought. I woulda had them losing to Cornell. Northeastern too, though I still think that'll be a game. The bad news for IU is that the Big Ten's bottom looks better than expected. I had them beating Iowa in Bloomington, but after Iowa's play thus far, I'm thinking that game's more of a toss up. The other teams I thought they'd have a chance against(UM and NU) are probably the 2 most overachieving teams in the conference. People on here make fun of this IU team, but they've done much better than expected. I thought a split between Cornell and TCU would be a good result, they won both with relative ease. Yesterday's game was ugly to begin with, of course, but that was probably only one of two halves I've been terribly disappointed with (the second half against St. Joe's being the other). According to Sagarin, IU has played easily the most difficult schedule in the Big Ten (No. 37 to Michigan's No. 80 then Michigan State's No. 116). That's made them look worse, too. Problem is, as you said, the Big Ten is much better than anyone expected. I figured on 2-4 conference wins. That has become a more difficult goal than I would have thought, but one I still think reasonable. I'm not sure there will be a single game they're favored in, nor a game I will expect them to win. Still, it's college basketball and upsets happen -- especially with a strong homecourt advantage. Based on current (early) Sagarin data, IU wouldn't be favored to win a single game in conference at this point. They would, however, be predicted within 10 points in all but one home game (Ohio State). The other team that's far enough ahead of them to be favored by more than 10 points is the only team they don't have a home game with (Purdue...wtf?) EDIT: For no other reason than I think it's interesting, here are conference predictions based on Sagarin data: Team W L ----------------------- Ohio State 14 4 Purdue 14 4 Illinois 12 6 Michigan State 12 6 Northwestern 11 7 Wisconsin 9 9 Michigan 8 10 Iowa 8 10 Penn State 6 12 Minnesota 5 13 Indiana 0 18

After being the only two internet writers spurned last year, the BBWAA admitted Rob Neyer and Keith Law. In addition, Christina Kahrl and Will Carroll of BP were admitted. Link Finally, some decent analytical writers in the BBWAA.

http://buzzcuts.uproxx.com/sports/american-football/6135

They may not be able to win the division, but they can't be eliminated from playoff contention, since the 6 spot (Dallas/Atlanta) is only 1/2 game ahead of them, and Atlanta plays Minnesota.