bukie

Dude, show some respect for CMG.

And that leaves Illinois as the only Big Ten team without a home conference loss.

First newbie question(s): - Where can I see how many fantasy points players are worth, so I can know who I can keep? - Also, as per the "4 exemption years" thing, does that include major league service time only?

Heh, great, now my team can't finish last, because I have an entire branch of baseball thinking to symbolize. :)

As an aside, Ken Pomeroy was really, really good at predicting the scores of the Big Ten games today.

PSU now alone in 4th in the Big Ten behind MSU, Illinois and Purdue. They've certainly taken advantage of what has been a favorable first-half BT schedule, but they've also still won games they weren't expected to, like against Purdue. Of course, the schedule kicks up in difficulty right about....now.

Just shows once again that you can't have an off-night in the Big Ten and expect to win anyway, except against Indiana.

Man, what a slow, plodding, first 35 minutes this game has been. I can't believe a team can shoot 55% from the field and still just score 55 in the game through 35 minutes.

Thanks for the invite. Going to take me a couple days (weeks?) to even get up to speed on everything, so if I don't accept your trade offers immediately, that just means I hate you. ;)

I'll join the Bears war room while there's still space available, if possible. I know nothing about Buffalo or Tampa's needs, and I assumed TT would want to be the Tampa guy.

Another thing that affects programs depending on what conference they're in is a bonus for winning the conference title game. So, Big 12, ACC and SEC teams get bumps for that, while Big Ten, Pac-10 and Big East programs get nothing.

To me, it looks like the biggest flaw in putting together that list is in weighting success equally throughout all time. Winning 50 years ago means just as much as winning this year. If they weighted the list so that more recent success meant more, it'd probably look better.

Bracket based on Pomeroy ratings: SOUTH 1.Duke (ACC) 16a.Morgan St. (MEAC) 16b.Alabama St. (SWAC) 8.Syracuse 9.Oklahoma St. 4.Illinois 13.Miami OH (MAC) 5.Xavier (A10) 12.LSU 2.Connecticut 15.Jacksonville (ASun) 7.Utah (MWC) 10.Wisconsin 3.Memphis (CUSA) 14.Texas Arlington (Slnd) 6.Kentucky (SEC) 11.Kansas St. ----------------------- EAST 1.Pittsburgh (BE) 16.Mount St. Mary's (NEC) 8.Baylor 9.Florida 4.Wake Forest 13.North Dakota St. (Sum) 5.Washington 12.Houston 2.Missouri (B12) 15.Cornell (Ivy) 7.Butler (Horz) 10.Miami FL 3.West Virginia 14.Middle Tennessee (SB) 6.California 11.Minnesota ----------------------- MIDWEST 1.North Carolina 16.Tennessee Martin (OVC) 8.Villanova 9.Stanford 4.Purdue (B10) 13.Creighton (MVC) 5.Kansas 12.Utah St. (WAC) 2.Arizona St. (P10) 15.Pacific (BW) 7.Brigham Young 10.Davidson (SC) 3.Louisville 14.Vermont (AE) 6.Clemson 11.Northwestern ----------------------- WEST 1.Gonzaga (WCC) 16.Liberty (BSth) 8.Southern California 9.Tennessee 4.Oklahoma 13.Siena (MAAC) 5.Marquette 12.Virginia Commonwealth (CAA) 2.Georgetown 15.American (Pat) 7.Texas 10.San Diego St. 3.UCLA 14.Portland St. (BSky) 6.Michigan St. 11.Notre Dame Last 4 in: Minnesota, Notre Dame, LSU, Houston First 10 out: St. Mary's, Ohio State, UAB, Arizona, Cleveland State, Maryland, Washington State, Tulsa, New Mexico, Rhode Island Conference representation: Big East - 9 Big 12 - 7 Big Ten - 6 Pac-10 - 6 ACC - 5 SEC - 4 MWC - 3 For amusement, if nothing else. :)

I should do another bracket today based on Pomeroy ratings. It'd be hilarious, because Northwestern would be in.

Hmm they rank Purdue as finishing 23-8 and only losing two more...at Mich St. and at U of I That is because there's a statistical difference between the odds of losing each individual game, and the overall odds of finish over the course of the season. No I understand I just thought it was surprising only two losses...Not a loss to OSU or Wisconsin on the road? Well, the odds of winning each individual game is just above 50%, but the odds of winning both games is less than that. According to Pomeroy's overall statistics, there are pretty good odds Purdue is going to lose at least 2 other games on their schedule. However, chances are pretty good they'll be favored in the OSU and Wisconsin contests.

Hmm they rank Purdue as finishing 23-8 and only losing two more...at Mich St. and at U of I That is because there's a statistical difference between the odds of losing each individual game, and the overall odds of finish over the course of the season.

Paige was such a tall-tale artist that it is hard to know what is true and what isn't during his career. Be pretty cool if it was true. That is true, but it was someone else telling the story. Can you imagine how pissed off we'd be if Zambrano challenged, say, Pujols like that? And how excited we would be if it worked? I like to pretend Kerry Wood did just that last year with Pujols in a game last year. Except he popped out rather than struck out.

If Illinois is going to have any hopes of challenging MSU for the conference title, they have to hold serve at home and win twice this week. If they can, they'll be fully established as a legitimate threat in the conference.

Florida is extremely overrated right now to be ranked at all. UK has the best SEC resume already, and they're a borderline top 25 team. Nobody else in the SEC is even that close.

Something else odd that I just noticed from Pomeroy's stats: Illinois leads the nation in A/FG ratio, by far. They're more than 3% higher than team #2.

Pomeroy updated his site yet again, this time with FanMatch, which incidicates each day which game should be the most exciting to watch.

Still bored...here's one on Sagarin ratings: SOUTH 1. Duke (ACC) 16a. Morgan State (MEAC) 16b. Alabama State (SWAC) 8. Baylor 9. Villanova 4. Gonzaga (WCC) 13. Miami-Ohio (MAC) 5. Arizona State 12. Illinois State (MVC) 2. Georgetown 15. VMI (BS) 7. Davidson (SC) 10. Florida State 3. Michigan State (B10) 14. Belmont (ASun) 6. Missouri 11. Notre Dame ---------------------------- EAST 1. Pittsburgh (BE) 16. Mount St. Mary's (NEC) 8. Kentucky (SEC) 9. Wisconsin 4. Butler (Horz) 13. Siena (MAAC) 5. UCLA 12. Temple 2. Clemson 15. Cornell (Ivy) 7. Texas 10. Utah State (WAC) 3. Illinois 14. Portland State (BSky) 6. Louisville 11. Utah ---------------------------- MIDWEST 1. Connecticut 16. Murray State (OVC) 8. Oklahoma State 9. Michigan 4. California (P10) 13. George Mason (CAA) 5. Memphis (CUSA) 12. Maryland 2. North Carolina 15. Long Beach State (BW) 7. Ohio State 10. Kansas 3. Xavier-Ohio (A10) 14. Western Kentucky (SB) 6. Marquette 11. Tennessee ---------------------------- WEST 1. Wake Forest 16. Vermont (AE) 8. Minnesota 9. Florida 4. BYU (MWC) 13. Stephen F. Austin (Slnd) 5. Syracuse 12. Stanford 2. Oklahoma (B12) 15. American University (Pat) 7. Miami-Florida 10. Washington 3. West Virginia 14. North Dakota State (Sum) 6. Purdue 11. Saint Mary's-Cal. Last 4 in: St. Mary's Maryland Stanford Temple 10 that were next: San Diego State Dayton Kansas State Arizona South Carolina USC Texas A&M Rhode Island Houston Tulsa Conference representation: 9 - Big East 7 - ACC 7 - Big Ten 6 - Big 12 5 - Pac 10 3 - SEC 2 - A-10 2 - Mountain West 2 - WCC

Yeah, it's a lot more based on the efficiency of teams, instead of what they've accomplished (W-L), which is a lot more like how the committee actually seeds teams (although, it's amazing how often Pomeroy's ratings actually gets teams right, and calls "upsets" appropriately). I might do one later on Sagarin's ELO ratings, which are much more representative of what a team has accomplished to this point, and not at all representative of how well a team is actually playing, to see which looks more reasonable.

Since nothing is going on at work today because nobody wants to do anything in this weather, I decided to run a "halfway point" bracket, based strictly on Pomeroy ratings (which essentially measures the efficiency of a team's offense and defense and extrapolates a pythagorean winning percentage based on the difference). So, based solely on how efficient teams are to decide both conference winners and at-larges, here's what the bracket will look like (conference winners with conference in parentheses): SOUTH 1 Duke (ACC) 16a Morgan St. (MEAC) 16b Alabama St. (SWAC) 8 Villanova 9 Tennessee 4 Illinois (B10) 13 Virginia Commonwealth (CAA) 5 Kansas 12 Illinois St. (MVC) 2 West Virginia 15 Cal St. Northridge (BW) 7 Miami FL 10 Baylor 3 Arizona St. (P10) 14 Stephen F. Austin (Slnd) 6 Kentucky (SEC) 11 Notre Dame ------------------------- EAST 1 Georgetown (BE) 16 Murray St. (OVC) 8 Texas 9 Wisconsin 4 BYU (MVC) 13 Miami OH (MAC) 5 California 12 Utah St. (WAC) 2 Wake Forest 15 Mount St. Mary's (NEC) 7 Kansas St. 10 Minnesota 3 Memphis (CUSA) 14 Siena (MAAC) 6 Marquette 11 Stanford ---------------------- WEST 1 Gonzaga (WCC) 16 Liberty (BSth) 8 Syracuse 9 Southern California 4 Oklahoma 13 North Dakota St. (Sum) 5 Clemson 12 Cleveland St. 2 Connecticut 15 Cornell (Ivy) 7 Utah 10 Florida 3 UCLA 14 Portland St. (BSky) 6 Michigan St. 11 Houston ------------------------ MIDWEST 1 North Carolina 16 American (Pat) 8 Butler 9 Oklahoma St. 4 Louisville 13 Belmont (ASun) 5 Purdue 12 Davidson (SC) 2 Pittsburgh 15 Vermont (AE) 7 Washington 10 San Diego St. 3 Missouri (B12) 14 Middle Tennessee (SB) 6 Xavier (A10) 11 Ohio St. Last 4 in: Notre Dame Stanford Houston Cleveland State 10 that were next: Temple Tulsa Maryland Michigan Arizona Vanderbilt Rhode Island UAB Northwestern Washington State Conference representation: 9 - Big East 7 - Big 12 6 - Big Ten 6 - Pac 10 5 - ACC 3 - SEC 3 - MWC 2 - CUSA 2 - Horizon Take it all with a grain of salt, I was pretty bored. But Pomeroy is generally a good representation of how well a team has played overall to this point. Probably not how it'll finish out the year (hey, if I did this 2 weeks ago, Northwestern's probably a 6 seed), but just an idea of where teams are at the halfway point with no personal bias included.

Why can't I help but get a mental image of a college student in his Wrigley working outfit standing outside peering through the window?