bukie
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Everything posted by bukie
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Also, a reminder to those who want to participate to PM me your lists of locks and considerations by the end of tomorrow. If you posted them on here already and just want me to use that, just let me know for sure (I'm not sure who's all set and who's changing their lists as the week goes by). EDIT: I received 4 PMs so far. I'll post my selections here since there's no other way for me to be held accountable for my selections.
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Stanford is 69, Iowa is 81. Those are their two worst losses. Ahhh it's because we're using Pomeroy/Sagarin ratings and not the RPI. I know that Pomeroy and Sagarin are better measures of how good a team is than the RPI, but RPI is what the committee uses. That's why NW isn't getting as much hype as Tennessee. In honesty, I use Sagarin because they already have most of the factors calculated, minimal effort to generate the anonymous comparisons. :) R/N record I grab from Pomeroy, last 12 I quickly eyeball from Pomeroy (since red = loss and green = win). Even with the RPI site I linked, none of the calculations are pre-made. Pomeroy has a fantastic "nitty gritty" page on each team, and Sagarin has good quick and dirty SOS and top 25/top 50 records. Also, yes, I like Pomeroy and Sagarin as better measures of how good a team is, but RPI and Sagarin's ELO are better measures of how "accomplished" a team is. The RPI is not Northwestern's friend right now.
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Hey, a site that actually keeps up-to-date accurate RPI info: http://www.bbstate.com/standings/2009/rpi
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Stanford is 69, Iowa is 81. Those are their two worst losses.
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Oh, and today's teams A-B-C were Tennessee, Northwestern and South Carolina, respectively. Tennessee is at South Carolina tonight to decide the SEC East. I don't consider necessarily in the tournament at this point, let alone a lock.
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BC's resume: 20-10 overall, 2-4 vs. the top 25, 4-6 vs. the top 50, 2 losses outside the top 100, 6-6 R/N record, 7-5 in their last 12, SOS 47 To be honest, those 2 bad losses hurt their profile a lot, and they've had a fairly easy ACC schedule to get to 9-7 in the conference (the only upper tier team they played twice was Wake, while the only lower tier team they didn't play twice was VA). How is their profile that much different from, say, Northwestern's? A, they have at least 3 wins against top 25 teams (Duke, FSU, UNC) and only lost by 4 to Pitt. B, I would say that the ACC (top to bottom) is a better league than the Big 11. FSU is not an Sagarin top 25 team, as they're #40. Besides, Northwestern beat them too. According to Sagarin and the RPI, the ACC is the #1 conference while the Big Ten is #2 (Big East #3). The Big Ten takes a lot of flack for low scoring games, but there are 10 competitive teams and 9 teams deserving of tourney consideration. I'm not arguing that BC doesn't deserve to be in the tournament, but they certainly aren't a lock at this point. They're above most of the bubble teams, but there are so many teams so close together in the bubble area, there's no way anyone can say for sure BC is in if they lose in the first round of the ACC tourney.
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BC's resume: 20-10 overall, 2-4 vs. the top 25, 4-6 vs. the top 50, 2 losses outside the top 100, 6-6 R/N record, 7-5 in their last 12, SOS 47 To be honest, those 2 bad losses hurt their profile a lot, and they've had a fairly easy ACC schedule to get to 9-7 in the conference (the only upper tier team they played twice was Wake, while the only lower tier team they didn't play twice was VA). How is their profile that much different from, say, Northwestern's?
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I'm showing Team B as 7-5 their last 12. Whoops, I miscounted the games (To do the last 12, I just count back 12 and count the losses...I counted the last game even though it wasn't played yet). Fixed it. Still, pretty amazing, no?
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Because I love these anonymous comparisons so much... Team A: 18-10 record, 1-4 vs. the top 25, 4-5 vs. the top 50, no losses outside the top 100, 8-6 R/N record, 7-5 in the last 12, SOS 16 Team B: 17-11 record, 2-3 vs. the top 25, 6-8 vs. the top 50, no losses outside the top 100, 4-7 R/N record, 7-5 in the last 12, SOS 33 Team C: 20-7 record, 0-1 vs. the top 25, 1-4 vs. the top 50, 1 loss outside the top 100, 4-6 R/N record, 8-4 in the last 12, SOS 130 How would you rank them?
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the big ten doesn't stand a chance in the tournament. purdue looks terrible on a fairly regular basis... illinois held to 33 at home... purdue dominates michigan state by 19... really... i don't think anyone in the big ten would be in the top 3-4 in the acc or big east... except the Big 10 actually plays defense. Get Duke or North Carolina away from the ACC refs and see how far their flopping gets them Duke and North Carolina did pretty well on the road in the Big 10-ACC Challenge games on the road. Yeah, the low scores have a lot more to do with team pace than defense. Though, there are a few really good defenses in the Big Ten (Purdue, Illinois, MSU).
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One more thing I noticed while looking at team information in putting together my locks...Michigan State is a LOT closer to a 1 seed than many of the ESPN pundits would care to admit, especially with Oklahoma losing tonight. UConn, UNC, Pitt, Louisville, Duke, MSU, Memphis is likely the group that has a shot at 1 seeds at this point, and I would put MSU currently 4th or 5th in the group, neck and neck with Louisville.
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It's a weird offseason when a team that desperately needs WR help has no interest in signing any of the FA crop that is headlined by Marvin Harrison and TO.
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We all know that you're only going to irrationally punish Missouri. ;)
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It's so annoying how the Big Ten gets bashed unreasonably for the slow pace they play. Hell, Tom Brennan bashed the Big Ten 3 days ago by saying only 3 teams deserved to be in, and that teams like Maryland, Miami, and Wisconsin deserved to be in there over the rest of the Big Ten.
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I happen to think the ACC is clearly the best conference this year, but mostly because there are zero bad teams and 3-4 really good teams (BE has 5 bad teams and 3-4 really good teams, BT has 1 bad team and 1 really good team, Pac-10 has 1 bad team and 0 really good teams, B12 has 3 bad teams and 2-3 really good teams, SEC has 14 bad teams and 0 really good teams). I don't really see a great middle team. If anything, I'd say VT or BC, but they're both crawling to the finish. And I'm only kidding about the SEC, but honestly I see more deserving teams out of the MWC than the SEC this year.
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Every day I feel more fortunate to be in a position where I really can't be laid off...I hope things pick up for you soon.
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Well, somebody has to. LSU has by far the best profile in the SEC, I think they're in no matter what happens here on out.
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Northwestern has never been in the tourney, the only major conference team that can say that. Honestly, I have NW above Kentucky and Florida right now.
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Just think, if Northwestern holds on at home against Purdue and Illinois, they're 10-7 in conference and likely in the tournament.
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Also, even if someone is initially in "Lock" status, if something absurd does happen to a lock that would/should alter their consideration (say, WVU loses at home to DePaul while losing their best 2 players to injury for the rest of the year, and then loses to DePaul again in the BE Tourney), we could always discuss and remove them later.
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After an opening Champ week night of 12 games and just one seed upset (in the Horizon...but Butler gets a double bye there so they don't play until Saturday anyway), the Atlantic Sun, Patriot, and Sun Belt leagues get their conference tournaments started tonight. Also, in the one league that doesn't have a tournament, the Ivy championship is going to come down to the last weekend, with Cornell one game up on Princeton, while Cornell hosts Princeton Saturday.
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There doesn't need to be 34 locks at this point. If you only see 21 locks, make 21 locks.
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I can understand taking on a failed or retired player as an analyst, because sometimes even if the physical gifts have abandoned a player they still get the mental part of the game. Failed GMs, though? They've basically failed at being an analyst for a team.
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That slides into the realm of how good a team is more so than what they've accomplished. Difficult to weigh both, but when we're actually ranking teams, I'll indicate who they are also, so people who want to can do additional research. Although I do like the anonymous team stuff to get a cross-section of opinion on a set of teams without individual biases clouding judgment.
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The more, the merrier. I find there are more interesting results when more people are involved. That way I don't personally influence the overall bracket too much. :)
