bukie

Hmm they rank Purdue as finishing 23-8 and only losing two more...at Mich St. and at U of I That is because there's a statistical difference between the odds of losing each individual game, and the overall odds of finish over the course of the season. No I understand I just thought it was surprising only two losses...Not a loss to OSU or Wisconsin on the road? Well, the odds of winning each individual game is just above 50%, but the odds of winning both games is less than that. According to Pomeroy's overall statistics, there are pretty good odds Purdue is going to lose at least 2 other games on their schedule. However, chances are pretty good they'll be favored in the OSU and Wisconsin contests.

Hmm they rank Purdue as finishing 23-8 and only losing two more...at Mich St. and at U of I That is because there's a statistical difference between the odds of losing each individual game, and the overall odds of finish over the course of the season.

Paige was such a tall-tale artist that it is hard to know what is true and what isn't during his career. Be pretty cool if it was true. That is true, but it was someone else telling the story. Can you imagine how pissed off we'd be if Zambrano challenged, say, Pujols like that? And how excited we would be if it worked? I like to pretend Kerry Wood did just that last year with Pujols in a game last year. Except he popped out rather than struck out.

If Illinois is going to have any hopes of challenging MSU for the conference title, they have to hold serve at home and win twice this week. If they can, they'll be fully established as a legitimate threat in the conference.

Florida is extremely overrated right now to be ranked at all. UK has the best SEC resume already, and they're a borderline top 25 team. Nobody else in the SEC is even that close.

Something else odd that I just noticed from Pomeroy's stats: Illinois leads the nation in A/FG ratio, by far. They're more than 3% higher than team #2.

Pomeroy updated his site yet again, this time with FanMatch, which incidicates each day which game should be the most exciting to watch.

Still bored...here's one on Sagarin ratings: SOUTH 1. Duke (ACC) 16a. Morgan State (MEAC) 16b. Alabama State (SWAC) 8. Baylor 9. Villanova 4. Gonzaga (WCC) 13. Miami-Ohio (MAC) 5. Arizona State 12. Illinois State (MVC) 2. Georgetown 15. VMI (BS) 7. Davidson (SC) 10. Florida State 3. Michigan State (B10) 14. Belmont (ASun) 6. Missouri 11. Notre Dame ---------------------------- EAST 1. Pittsburgh (BE) 16. Mount St. Mary's (NEC) 8. Kentucky (SEC) 9. Wisconsin 4. Butler (Horz) 13. Siena (MAAC) 5. UCLA 12. Temple 2. Clemson 15. Cornell (Ivy) 7. Texas 10. Utah State (WAC) 3. Illinois 14. Portland State (BSky) 6. Louisville 11. Utah ---------------------------- MIDWEST 1. Connecticut 16. Murray State (OVC) 8. Oklahoma State 9. Michigan 4. California (P10) 13. George Mason (CAA) 5. Memphis (CUSA) 12. Maryland 2. North Carolina 15. Long Beach State (BW) 7. Ohio State 10. Kansas 3. Xavier-Ohio (A10) 14. Western Kentucky (SB) 6. Marquette 11. Tennessee ---------------------------- WEST 1. Wake Forest 16. Vermont (AE) 8. Minnesota 9. Florida 4. BYU (MWC) 13. Stephen F. Austin (Slnd) 5. Syracuse 12. Stanford 2. Oklahoma (B12) 15. American University (Pat) 7. Miami-Florida 10. Washington 3. West Virginia 14. North Dakota State (Sum) 6. Purdue 11. Saint Mary's-Cal. Last 4 in: St. Mary's Maryland Stanford Temple 10 that were next: San Diego State Dayton Kansas State Arizona South Carolina USC Texas A&M Rhode Island Houston Tulsa Conference representation: 9 - Big East 7 - ACC 7 - Big Ten 6 - Big 12 5 - Pac 10 3 - SEC 2 - A-10 2 - Mountain West 2 - WCC

Yeah, it's a lot more based on the efficiency of teams, instead of what they've accomplished (W-L), which is a lot more like how the committee actually seeds teams (although, it's amazing how often Pomeroy's ratings actually gets teams right, and calls "upsets" appropriately). I might do one later on Sagarin's ELO ratings, which are much more representative of what a team has accomplished to this point, and not at all representative of how well a team is actually playing, to see which looks more reasonable.

Since nothing is going on at work today because nobody wants to do anything in this weather, I decided to run a "halfway point" bracket, based strictly on Pomeroy ratings (which essentially measures the efficiency of a team's offense and defense and extrapolates a pythagorean winning percentage based on the difference). So, based solely on how efficient teams are to decide both conference winners and at-larges, here's what the bracket will look like (conference winners with conference in parentheses): SOUTH 1 Duke (ACC) 16a Morgan St. (MEAC) 16b Alabama St. (SWAC) 8 Villanova 9 Tennessee 4 Illinois (B10) 13 Virginia Commonwealth (CAA) 5 Kansas 12 Illinois St. (MVC) 2 West Virginia 15 Cal St. Northridge (BW) 7 Miami FL 10 Baylor 3 Arizona St. (P10) 14 Stephen F. Austin (Slnd) 6 Kentucky (SEC) 11 Notre Dame ------------------------- EAST 1 Georgetown (BE) 16 Murray St. (OVC) 8 Texas 9 Wisconsin 4 BYU (MVC) 13 Miami OH (MAC) 5 California 12 Utah St. (WAC) 2 Wake Forest 15 Mount St. Mary's (NEC) 7 Kansas St. 10 Minnesota 3 Memphis (CUSA) 14 Siena (MAAC) 6 Marquette 11 Stanford ---------------------- WEST 1 Gonzaga (WCC) 16 Liberty (BSth) 8 Syracuse 9 Southern California 4 Oklahoma 13 North Dakota St. (Sum) 5 Clemson 12 Cleveland St. 2 Connecticut 15 Cornell (Ivy) 7 Utah 10 Florida 3 UCLA 14 Portland St. (BSky) 6 Michigan St. 11 Houston ------------------------ MIDWEST 1 North Carolina 16 American (Pat) 8 Butler 9 Oklahoma St. 4 Louisville 13 Belmont (ASun) 5 Purdue 12 Davidson (SC) 2 Pittsburgh 15 Vermont (AE) 7 Washington 10 San Diego St. 3 Missouri (B12) 14 Middle Tennessee (SB) 6 Xavier (A10) 11 Ohio St. Last 4 in: Notre Dame Stanford Houston Cleveland State 10 that were next: Temple Tulsa Maryland Michigan Arizona Vanderbilt Rhode Island UAB Northwestern Washington State Conference representation: 9 - Big East 7 - Big 12 6 - Big Ten 6 - Pac 10 5 - ACC 3 - SEC 3 - MWC 2 - CUSA 2 - Horizon Take it all with a grain of salt, I was pretty bored. But Pomeroy is generally a good representation of how well a team has played overall to this point. Probably not how it'll finish out the year (hey, if I did this 2 weeks ago, Northwestern's probably a 6 seed), but just an idea of where teams are at the halfway point with no personal bias included.

Why can't I help but get a mental image of a college student in his Wrigley working outfit standing outside peering through the window?

whatever it is, it's probably held by Raisin in the Minor Leagues forum Or Fred during a game thread in 2007. I was going to go with Post Count Padder in the Milestone Post thread.

Meanwhile, at halftime in the Illinois/Michigan game, 6 fouls have been called.

John Gasaway of Basketball Prospectus posted an article (comically premature edition) on the early season analysis of the Big East, Big Ten and Pac 10. He makes tons of notes, but some things I noticed specifically: - As everyone expected, the two fastest-paced teams in the Big Ten are...Illinois and Northwestern..? - Every team in the Big East plays at a faster pace than any team in the Big Ten. - Every team that has played DePaul, Indiana or Oregon State is going to be subject to a statistical boost at this point in the season (well...except USC). Also, BP (is there a better abbreviation for Basketball Prospectus?) has posted their first round of top 25 rankings. The top 6 is all ACC/Big East, and 7 of the top 8.

Let me guess...2005 Illinois and someone else.

As far as Grace, he's going to need the assistance of the Veterans Committee at this point, since he received less than 5% of the votes. And as we all know, the Veterans Committee isn't worth Veterans Committee. Do you honestly think any of those three belong in the HOF? No, but Williams is the closest.

As far as Grace, he's going to need the assistance of the Veterans Committee at this point, since he received less than 5% of the votes. And as we all know, the Veterans Committee isn't worth Veterans Committee.

Hard to say for sure on Illinois this year, as to this point they've outplayed pretty much anyone's expectations, and most of that is coming from limiting turnovers and shooting better all-around. Without Randle and Pruitt this year (and despite how large a part of the team they were last year, their weaknesses were in turnovers and poor shooting), the team's been able to shoot a ton better, move the ball around better, and really limit mistakes overall. They've never trailed at the half this season, losing only by a basket to a really good Clemson team and completely losing focus offensively in the last 5 minutes of the Michigan game after tying it at 62. This week they get a rematch with Michigan and another tough roadie at MSU. They need to win the home games and stay with MSU on the road to be a serious challenger to the conference title.

i think psu wins either 7 or 8 games the rest of the way, ending up 21-10 or 20-11 going into the big ten tourney. their OOC schedule was such a joke that i think they need to end up a couple of games better and then win at least one game in the big ten tourney. I could agree with that and if they play well in the big ten tourney they probably will make it into the tourney Yeah, if they win the Big Ten tourney, they have a decent shot of making it into the tourney.

Well yeah, I know those, it's that he doesn't explain his basis for defining significant contributor/role player/invisible/etc. Looks that a %Poss of 24% and higher is a Major Contributor, a 20%+ is Significant, a 16%+ is a role player, a 12%+ is a Limited Role, and anything below 12% is nearly invisible. I missed a category. A %Poss of 28% or higher is a "Go-to guy". I'm not sure if there is another tier, but Psycho-T is a go-to guy. It's mostly defined as how often offensive possessions end in their hands for better or worse. A team that distributes the ball completely evenly is going to have a lot of role players. EDIT: Nope, Go-to guy is the highest "level" of contributor, as Stephen Curry leads the nation in %Poss and is listed as such.

Well yeah, I know those, it's that he doesn't explain his basis for defining significant contributor/role player/invisible/etc. Looks that a %Poss of 24% and higher is a Major Contributor, a 20%+ is Significant, a 16%+ is a role player, a 12%+ is a Limited Role, and anything below 12% is nearly invisible.

I'm not sure there's such a thing as an easy week in the Big Ten...well, except for Illinois last week (v. Indiana + bye). Illinois this week: v. Michigan @ Michigan State Fortunately, by the first week of February, they'll have already played their road games at Purdue, Michigan, MSU, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Schedule breaks extra rough this year, as their two missing games are @Iowa and vs. Northwestern.

His "major contributors, significant contributors, role players, limited roles" categories are going to either need a larger sample to be accurate or some fine-tuning. Yeah, I was hoping there'd be an explanation on the main page explaining those, but there was none. He doesn't really measure individual defense, so those rankings seem to be offensive based only with in the very least a large slant towards scoring. The titles are more just fun to see so you can make fun of Chris Kramer being ranked "nearly invisible" Here's the explanations.

Headline candidates for the HOF over the next 3 years: 2010: Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Andres Galarraga, Robin Ventura, Fred McGriff 2011: Jeff Bagwell, Rafael Palmeiro, John Franco, John Olerud, Juan Gonzalez, Kevin Brown, Al Leiter, Tino Martinez 2012: Javy Lopez, Carl Everett, Bernie Williams, Eric Young, JT Snow, Terry Mulholland

Apologies for the Neyer gushing, but here's another article on why Rickey's SB record is one of the most untouchable records in baseball going forward.