bukie

Fontenot has always been able to hit at every level. Fielding is the weakness in his game.

I'd probably put them ahead based on h2h, but that's not saying much. I don't think much of Providence.(Though I've only got them playing once.) Oh, I'm not saying there's not a freaking ocean between the top 7 and everybody else, I'm just saying that if any 8th team has a shot out of that conference, it's ND. Of course, they'll have to beat Rutgers, WVU, and likely Pitt to get into realistic discussion, and that doesn't even put them in the finals. Providence has a bye and then likely Cincy (or DePaul...) before a matchup with Louisville.

I'd like to file this idea under the definition of "how to make a bad contract worse".

Another question: Is Notre Dame ahead of Providence at this point for at-large consideration? Providence played the equivalent of a cakewalk schedule in the Big East (played Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Syracuse, and WVU once each) and got swept by ND in the process. ND played a hellish schedule and still beat the ever-loving crap out of Louisville. Providence has home wins over Pitt and Syracuse, and nothing else.

Please rank the 16 teams in seed order (unless they are and somehow miraculously happened to also be in alphabetical order too).

I'd agree with all those except Utah State. I think they're largely getting a raw deal, and should get credit for winning a top 10 league (about as much credit as LSU should for winning the SEC). Cincinnati maybe has a shot if they reach the BE Finals. Other than that it'd take an auto-bid to get any of those teams in, likely. Which means Green Bay, Illinois State, and Niagara would be out completely. EDIT: I'd also dump Davidson. They have really nothing to stand on other than "look at what we did last year", which isn't a committee criteria. Also, Niagara may be getting a raw deal, as their resume is about as good as St. Mary's. Not sure if that's good for Niagara or bad for St. Mary's.

Here's a good article by Joe Sheehan, outlining the case for just about every bubble team you can think of: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=582 But man, a Big Ten lover he ain't.

Top 16 from here: Other teams in (30): Arizona State, Butler, BYU, California, Chattanooga (SoCon), Clemson, Cornell (Ivy), ETSU (ASun), Florida State, Gonzaga (WCC), Illinois, Kansas, LSU, Marquette, Missouri, Morehead State (OVC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Purdue, Radford (BSouth), Siena (MAAC), Syracuse, Texas, UCLA, Utah, VCU (CAA), Villanova, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier Top 8 from here: (Bubble) (32): Arizona, Auburn, Boston College, Cincinnati, Creighton, Davidson, Dayton, Florida, Georgetown, Green Bay, Houston, Illinois State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Niagara, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Providence, Rhode Island, San Diego State, South Carolina, St. Mary's, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Tulsa, UAB, UNLV, USC, Utah State, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Wisconsin

I'm doubting my post was among those used since it was posted 2 minutes before yours and 4 minutes after the bell. Oh well. I factored it in anyway and it didn't affect the results. :)

Full summary: Current "S-Curve" (8): 1. Pittsburgh 2. North Carolina 3. Connecticut 4. Oklahoma 5. Michigan State 6. Louisville 7. Duke 8. Memphis Other teams in (30): Arizona State, Butler, BYU, California, Chattanooga (SoCon), Clemson, Cornell (Ivy), ETSU (ASun), Florida State, Gonzaga (WCC), Illinois, Kansas, LSU, Marquette, Missouri, Morehead State (OVC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Purdue, Radford (BSouth), Siena (MAAC), Syracuse, Texas, UCLA, Utah, VCU (CAA), Villanova, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier Single-Bid Conferences (no at-large possibility) (15): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy, Mid-American, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC Other teams in consideration for between 5 and 16 bids (Bubble) (32): Arizona, Auburn, Boston College, Cincinnati, Creighton, Davidson, Dayton, Florida, Georgetown, Green Bay, Houston, Illinois State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Niagara, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Providence, Rhode Island, San Diego State, South Carolina, St. Mary's, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Tulsa, UAB, UNLV, USC, Utah State, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Wisconsin Next task: Same as today's task. Except with the next 16 (i.e. after Pitt-Memphis) teams "in", and 8 among the teams in consideration (bubble). Due end of day Tuesday. Feel free to discuss any bubble teams you think should just come off the board to clean it up.

OK, no other submissions, so here are the results: There is a clear top 8: 1. Pittsburgh 2. North Carolina 3. Connecticut 4. Oklahoma 5. Michigan State 6. Louisville 7. Duke 8. Memphis Those 8 are now set in position for the time being, ignore them for future voting. If a situation arises that anyone thinks deserves special attention with teams already set in position, we can discuss it here in the thread (i.e. MSU wins the Big Ten tournament, Oklahoma loses in the semis, does MSU push up into the 4th 1 seed?) From the other vote, there are 5 clear additions to the "in" list: 1. California 2. West Virginia 3. BYU 4. Texas 5. Utah I'll summarize everything in the next post.

Committee reps still have a half hour to submit their top 16 locks and top 8 considerations before I tally up the totals and announce the results.

Gonzaga, Siena, VCU and Chattanooga all win auto bids today, pulling them out of the at-large pool.

I'm thinking both WCC teams get in regardless. Also, I just read that St. Mary's added a game against Eastern Washington this Friday. How odd is that? That doesn't seem legal unless it's a make-up game. They still had an available game, I think, due to the preseason tournament they played. I think the sole reason they're doing this is to get Mills some extra playing time before the postseason.

Reminder to get your top 16 locks and top 8 considerations to me by the end of the night tonight to make them count. As for my picks, critique away (Illinois-free!): 1. North Carolina 2. Pittsburgh 3. Connecticut 4. Michigan State 5. Louisville 6. Duke 7. Oklahoma 8. Memphis 9. Wake Forest 10. Kansas 11. Villanova 12. Gonzaga 13. Missouri 14. UCLA 15. Syracuse 16. Washington Considerations: 1. West Virginia 2. BYU 3. Utah 4. Wisconsin 5. Texas 6. California 7. Ohio State 8. Oklahoma State

Actual at-large bids are on the line tonight with the WCC (St. Mary's-Gonzaga), MAAC (Niagara-Siena), Colonial (VCU-George Mason) and Southern (Charleston-Chattanooga) championships. In addition, two teams in their first year in Division 1 basketball both reached the semis of the Summit league tournament in North Dakota State and South Dakota State.

As a fan of a team in danger of falling to a 6 seed, I'd pay good money to get LSU as a 3 seed in my bracket.

To reiterate... Current auto-bids (5): East Tennessee State, Radford, Cornell, Northern Iowa, Morehead State Current at-large locks (25): Arizona State, Butler, Clemson, Connecticut, Duke, Florida State, Gonzaga, Illinois, Kansas, Louisville, LSU, Marquette, Memphis, Michigan State, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Syracuse, UCLA, Villanova, Wake Forest, Washington, Xavier Current other teams in consideration (49): Arizona, Auburn, Boston College, BYU, California, Cincinnati, Creighton, Davidson, Dayton, Florida, Georgetown, Green Bay, Houston, Illinois State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Niagara, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Providence, Rhode Island, San Diego State, Siena, South Carolina, St. Mary's, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Tulsa, UAB, UNLV, USC, Utah, Utah State, VCU, Virginia Tech, Washington State, West Virginia, Wisconsin Current step of the process is for people to list the top 16 out of the locks and the top 8 out of the "other teams". 8 additional "other teams" will make the current at-large list 33, one shy of the 34 that exist. Eventually, at-large locks will win their conference tournaments (hopefully?), and other spots will open up.

Really, really slim chance at this point. Possibly better than Creighton, but Illinois State had a better profile last year and didn't get an at-large (actually, that was the one team we missed on last year).

Z, just so you know, the official "locks" for this committee are listed in the first post, so teams like WVU, Cal, Texas, and Wisconsin are not locks, per say, yet.

I'm sure you just accidentally glossed over them, but how do you not have Louisville as a lock? His rep is Louisville, so he's not allowed to vote for them.

Correct, unless they're called up to the majors during the year.

Northern Iowa won the MVC, which takes them out of consideration for an at-large bid and puts them on the auto-bid list.

Well, they're on the board, which is better than they can say for any other season we've done this so far.

Not quite as much conspiracy theory as the one where Michael Jordan's baseball career was a self-imposed 2-year suspension for gambling. Definitely weird, though.