bukie
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Everything posted by bukie
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Analyzing data...got a ton of it to sift through since there are a lot of participants this year (which is good!). I'll post the results early tomorrow. Step 2 of the process will be to PM me your top 16 overall from the IN list I post, and your top 8 from the BUBBLE list I post by the end of Monday. Obviously, nobody can do that until I actually post the results. EDIT: Almost forgot, Cornell is the first automatic bid clinched, from the Ivy league.
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One more reminder that if you'd like to participate, pm me your locks and bubbles lists, or post them here and let me know by the end of the day today.
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I'll be honest, when Skyballer didn't show, I was half expecting dew to trade the Giants pick to the Titans for cash considerations.
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I will say one thing about Big Ten officiating that annoys me to no end: the "let them play underneath" mantra that causes them to eat their whistles for all but the most egregious contact down low really hurts the conference come tourney time, when games are called much tighter. It's stupid, and it lulls teams into a false sense that they can just destroy anyone underneath without recourse.
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I'm mostly frustrated this morning because that's now the fourth game this year that Illinois was in control at least midway through the second half (8-10 point lead) and then proceeded to eat clock and take bad jumpshots, which let the other team back in the game. Twice against PSU, the game at MSU, and the game at Michigan. It's balanced out somewhat by that ridiculous Northwestern comeback (which was caused by the exact same stupid "clock eating offense"), but at some point you have to just run the offense that got you the lead.
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Sure, anyone can play. I'd probably go team A, personally. Both are close, though.
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I really just can't believe Illinois blew two 10-point leads to PSU in two games in the last 5 minutes of each. By doing the same stupid things.
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Just an awful display offensively the last 5 minutes. Didn't run the offense, couldn't hit free throws, couldn't get rebounds.
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2-7 from the free throw line says it all.
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I hate hate hate the prevent offense. Stand there for 30 seconds and take a fallaway 3 three times in a row down the court. And be surprised when the other team gets back into the game!
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Odd is a good way to describe every aspect of Tisdale's game. At least he's perfected odd.
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Illinois is frustrating to watch sometimes because the team seems to take some games too easy. Not enough hustle for loose balls, lazy passing, lazy offensive sets, lazy box-outs. They're actually doing pretty well here, and were at a decent energy level last Saturday. I hope the days of slacking through games are over for this team this year.
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Illinois makes their first FT against PSU, after only 66 minutes of gameplay. They're not a big FT shooting team, but that's a little ridiculous, even for them.
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First PSU-Illinois game: Illinois scores 33 points total. Second PSU-Illinois game: Illinois scores 34 points in the first half.
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A locks and bubbles list from Basketball Prospectus: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=574
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Some media "locks" and "bubble" lists: ESPN: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=90 SI: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/andy_glockner/03/02/bubble.watch/index.html CBS: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bubble
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As a contrary opinion, I think how a team finishes is at least somewhat indicative of the quality of the team they put out there. No, not to the degree of Maryland and Syracuse 3-4 years back where they jumped from out of the tourney into a first-round exit as a 4-5 seed, but let's use New Mexico as an example. They were, to put it mildly, a bad team during November and December. They've got 3 bad losses during that time. However, since the turn of the year (coinciding with the start of the conference schedule), they've been easily the best team in their conference, efficiency-wise, and are one win away from winning the MWC. Now, their overall numbers are definitely not at-large worthy, but the MWC was arguably the sixth best conference in the country this year, and winning the regular season title for the conference (and it's a double-round-robin, so every team's schedule was the same in-conference) means more to me than losing some bad games early in the year.
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As far as auto bids, tonight's games include first-round action of the Missouri Valley, Atlantic Sun and Northeast conferences, along with semifinal action in the Big South.
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Pomeroy ratings are completely based on adjusted efficiency margin (adjusted for quality of opponent). So, even with that adjustment, Memphis still has the highest efficiency margin in the country.
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Either you left them out intentionally because you represent them, or you are a defeatist fan. Illinois is a lock. Yeah, that was part of the deal. No votes for the team you represent, to try to maintain as unbiased a selection set as possible.
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I'm sure, but there's always some asinine argument that sprouts up in college sports that says you can't be a true fan of a team if you don't attend the college.
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My representation: Illinois (although, technically, I suppose I could participate as an unaffiliated commissioner, since I never actually attended Illinois, just root for them) My locks (29): ACC: UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State Big East: UConn, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin Big 12: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas Pac-10: Washington, UCLA, Arizona State SEC: LSU MWC: Utah, BYU CUSA: Memphis HORZ: Butler WCC: Gonzaga A-10: Xavier Deserve consideration: Miami, BC, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Rhode Island, Dayton, Temple, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Providence, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State, Northwestern, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas A&M, VCU, UAB, Tulsa, Houston, Siena, Creighton, San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV, California, Arizona, USC, Tennessee, Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky, Davidson, St. Mary's, Utah State
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Also, a reminder to those who want to participate to PM me your lists of locks and considerations by the end of tomorrow. If you posted them on here already and just want me to use that, just let me know for sure (I'm not sure who's all set and who's changing their lists as the week goes by). EDIT: I received 4 PMs so far. I'll post my selections here since there's no other way for me to be held accountable for my selections.
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Stanford is 69, Iowa is 81. Those are their two worst losses. Ahhh it's because we're using Pomeroy/Sagarin ratings and not the RPI. I know that Pomeroy and Sagarin are better measures of how good a team is than the RPI, but RPI is what the committee uses. That's why NW isn't getting as much hype as Tennessee. In honesty, I use Sagarin because they already have most of the factors calculated, minimal effort to generate the anonymous comparisons. :) R/N record I grab from Pomeroy, last 12 I quickly eyeball from Pomeroy (since red = loss and green = win). Even with the RPI site I linked, none of the calculations are pre-made. Pomeroy has a fantastic "nitty gritty" page on each team, and Sagarin has good quick and dirty SOS and top 25/top 50 records. Also, yes, I like Pomeroy and Sagarin as better measures of how good a team is, but RPI and Sagarin's ELO are better measures of how "accomplished" a team is. The RPI is not Northwestern's friend right now.
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Hey, a site that actually keeps up-to-date accurate RPI info: http://www.bbstate.com/standings/2009/rpi
