bukie

Most teams: The jump shots aren't falling. Maybe we should drive the lane and go inside more to get some easy shots. Illinois: The jump shots aren't falling. Maybe we should have someone else take jump shots until we find someone that makes them.

Current "S-Curve": 1. Pittsburgh 2. North Carolina 3. Connecticut 4. Oklahoma 5. Michigan State 6. Louisville 7. Duke 8. Memphis (CUSA) 9. Wake Forest 10. Kansas 11. Washington 12. Villanova 13. Missouri 14. Clemson 15. UCLA 16. Florida State 17. Xavier 18. Gonzaga (WCC) 19. Illinois 20. Syracuse 21. West Virginia 22. Purdue 23. Arizona State 24. Marquette 25. BYU 26. Texas 27. California 28. Oklahoma State 29. Butler 30. Utah 31. Tennessee 32. Wisconsin 33. Michigan 34. LSU 35. Boston College 36. Texas A&M 37. Ohio State 38. Minnesota 39. Penn State 40. San Diego State 41. Maryland 42. Dayton 43. Arizona 44. Siena (MAAC) 45. Cleveland St. (Horizon) 46. VCU (CAA) 47. N Iowa (MVC) 48. WKU (SB) 49. NDSU (Summit) 50. Portland St. (BSky) 51. Cornell (Ivy) 52. Robert Morris (NEC) 53. ETSU (ASun) 54. Radford (BSouth) 55. Chattanooga (SC) 56. Morehead St. (OVC) Still need to fit in American (Pat), Binghamton (AE), Big West (CS Northridge), A-10 (Temple), Southland (SF Austin), MAC (Buffalo), SWAC (Alabama State), WAC (Utah State), and MEAC (Morgan State). Possibly Baylor, USC and Auburn/Miss State. As for movement, these are the teams I think should move (simplified from what I have earlier): - Oklahoma down below the 2 seeds - Clemson down a bunch, below Purdue - Xavier down below Purdue - Syracuse up below Florida State - Missouri up below Kansas - Utah and Tennessee up above BYU - Ohio State up above Michigan/Wisconsin

Mississippi State beat LSU 67-57. Bubble teams all over the country have suddenly become huge Tennessee fans.

I know it's a bit early, but here's the order of the bubble: Ohio State Minnesota Penn State San Diego State Maryland Dayton Arizona ------------ CURRENT CUT LINE Utah State St. Mary's Creighton USC Temple Auburn Virgina Tech South Carolina Florida New Mexico The Cut Line will move up if USC wins the Pac 10, Baylor wins the Big 12, Tulsa wins the CUSA, or Miss State or Auburn wins the SEC. So as many as 4 other bubbles could be screwed. The ACC, Big 10, MWC and Big East champs will be a team above the cut line. So, even SD State and Maryland should probably just go ahead and win that auto-bid.

As of this morning, the top 4 in RPI, in order, are Pittsburgh, Duke, UNC, Michigan State.

My opinions on placement listed above in blue.

Back in the old days of...last year?

They beat Louisville

I'll leave the bubble discussion open until tomorrow at noon. Then I'll post a semblance of what the 65 team field looks like at this time.

If anything, this makes the Miles and Gathright acquisitions even more puzzling.

Fixed that for you.

Still an hour to get me your ranked bubble teams. Tomorrow we'll put it all together. As for me... Ohio State San Diego State Dayton Minnesota Creighton Utah State Penn State St. Mary's Maryland Temple Auburn Arizona Virgina Tech Florida New Mexico USC South Carolina

66 points for Duke tonight...that's not going to get it done in the tourney.

In the game nobody's watching, Auburn defeated Florida 61-58.

Really, there aren't any more upsets this year than there are in typical years. Overemphasizing conference tournament results is what the actual committee probably does the poorest.

Ohio State 61 Wisconsin 57 LSU 67 Kentucky 58 Mississippi State 82 South Carolina 68

Well, we'll get a glimpse of what Illinois will be like at the beginning of next year, then.

Heh, all this time I thought it was Juan's turn.

Yes, and you can replace that with any SEC pairing that doesn't involve LSU or Tennessee as the loser.

Here are my thoughts on the current S-Curve: - I think there was enough gap between UConn and Pitt and Louisville and Memphis that UConn and Pitt should stay as #1 seeds. UNC moves to #1 overall with a win today. - I have Michigan State as the 4th #1 seed right now already. If they win today, I think that should be cemented. If not, Duke is the next candidate for me. - None of the 3 seeds are good enough to bump up to a 2 seed except possibly Wake Forest, but they only do that if Memphis doesn't win the C-USA. - Kansas is still a 3 seed unless two of Florida State, UCLA or Illinois win their conference tournaments. - Missouri will probably win the Big 12 tournament, but I think their ceiling at this point is just below Kansas, considering they won't have to beat a really good team to win the thing. - I personally thought Syracuse was overseeded as a 5, so the win last night merely justified putting them there in my opinion. - West Virginia's position is already influenced by their win yesterday, and a win tonight for them really shouldn't affect their seed. - If Tennessee or LSU wins the SEC tournament, they probably should get bumped up a bit. Thoughts on the bubble: - I don't think there's another at-large worthy team in the SEC. South Carolina has a bad, bad resume. Worse than Creighton. Worse than Utah State. Worse than Siena. Heck, worse than New Mexico, who lost last night. - New Mexico just blew the MWC's last chance at 4 bids last night. I think the other 3 are in at this point no matter the remainder of the outcomes. - Dayton is likely in at this point, unless they go and lose by 20 to Duquesne. - I really don't like Maryland's resume (2 good wins all year, 4-8 R/N record, 2 bad losses), but if they make it to the ACC finals by beating Wake and Duke, they're probably in at this rate. - All the other Big Ten bubble teams (Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota) are likely in even with losses today, barring disastrous outcomes or huge blowouts in their games. - I personally don't think USC or Temple has enough to get an at-large bid even with a trip to the conference finals, but I added them to the bubble list because they had the most legitimate cases. - Given all the weak resumes at the bottom of the bubble, I'd be much more apt to reward teams like Utah State, Creighton and Saint Mary's, who did very well in decent conference (with an injury caveat for St. Mary's) than a 7-9/8-10 team from any major conference. - Arizona I don't like because the common theme of all their good wins was this: home games. They did nothing on the road. They beat Gonzaga in Phoenix. Their only other wins away from home were at the Oregon schools, and neutral wins against Santa Clara and Mississippi Valley State.

So you will feel less confident in them if they beat Xavier? :)

I completely disagree. Syracuse simply managed to do the smart thing first, and it took 6 OT for either team to realize that maybe trying to drive to the basket would be a good idea.

Hard to say, since they can do it without having to beat Pitt or UConn. EDIT: On the other hand, I fully expect the Big East tournament champion to be severely overseeded by the committee, since it's a tradition.

Don't think "quality" is the right word to describe the last 90 minutes of play.

Round 5: Rank the 17 bubble teams. Discuss: Start to build the bracket, starting with the protected seeds. Also, discuss whether teams should be shifted up or down on the S-Curve.