bukie

Western Kentucky wins the Sun Belt.

Hey, you got like an hour and a half yet. :)

Auto bids for tonight: Cleveland State, North Dakota State (in their first year in D1!). Still in progress: Sun Belt final between Western Kentucky and South Alabama.

Going to be out for likely the next 7 hours. Reminder to PM me today's set of picks (or post them here if you prefer, just let me know some way). Feel free to talk amongst yourselves. I'll give you a topic: What's more important for selecting a tourney team, how good they are, or what they've accomplished?

St. John's leads Georgetown with 18 secs to play. Not sure if it's by 3 or 4, though, since different sites are reporting different scores. If GT loses, I'm prepared to exact the "DePaul rule" on them. :) EDIT: St. John's wins 64-59. I'm prepared to eliminate GT from at-large consideration by invoking the DePaul rule.

My lists for the purpose of criticism (again, Illinois-free!): 9-24: 9. Wake Forest 10. Kansas 11. Villanova 12. UCLA 13. Missouri 14. Washington 15. Clemson 16. Gonzaga 17. Syracuse 18. Xavier 19. Purdue 20. Florida State 21. Marquette 22. BYU 23. Arizona State 24. West Virginia 8 more for consideration: 1. Tennessee 2. Wisconsin 3. Dayton 4. Texas A&M 5. Boston College 6. Ohio State 7. Michigan 8. Oklahoma State

Georgetown trailing at the half to St. John's. New tournament rule: Any Big East team that can't advance at least as far as DePaul has no business making the NCAA tournament. :)

Play-in game.

DePaul ruins two teams' bubble chances with a single victory. Cincy for beating them and Providence by preventing them from playing a decent team in the BET until a possible Louisville matchup. In other words, I'm prepared to dump Cincy now.

Big East tourney just started. DePaul leads Cincy 7-6 five minutes in, which is only the third BE game all year they've held a lead this late.

Fontenot has always been able to hit at every level. Fielding is the weakness in his game.

I'd probably put them ahead based on h2h, but that's not saying much. I don't think much of Providence.(Though I've only got them playing once.) Oh, I'm not saying there's not a freaking ocean between the top 7 and everybody else, I'm just saying that if any 8th team has a shot out of that conference, it's ND. Of course, they'll have to beat Rutgers, WVU, and likely Pitt to get into realistic discussion, and that doesn't even put them in the finals. Providence has a bye and then likely Cincy (or DePaul...) before a matchup with Louisville.

I'd like to file this idea under the definition of "how to make a bad contract worse".

Another question: Is Notre Dame ahead of Providence at this point for at-large consideration? Providence played the equivalent of a cakewalk schedule in the Big East (played Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Syracuse, and WVU once each) and got swept by ND in the process. ND played a hellish schedule and still beat the ever-loving crap out of Louisville. Providence has home wins over Pitt and Syracuse, and nothing else.

Please rank the 16 teams in seed order (unless they are and somehow miraculously happened to also be in alphabetical order too).

I'd agree with all those except Utah State. I think they're largely getting a raw deal, and should get credit for winning a top 10 league (about as much credit as LSU should for winning the SEC). Cincinnati maybe has a shot if they reach the BE Finals. Other than that it'd take an auto-bid to get any of those teams in, likely. Which means Green Bay, Illinois State, and Niagara would be out completely. EDIT: I'd also dump Davidson. They have really nothing to stand on other than "look at what we did last year", which isn't a committee criteria. Also, Niagara may be getting a raw deal, as their resume is about as good as St. Mary's. Not sure if that's good for Niagara or bad for St. Mary's.

Here's a good article by Joe Sheehan, outlining the case for just about every bubble team you can think of: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=582 But man, a Big Ten lover he ain't.

Top 16 from here: Other teams in (30): Arizona State, Butler, BYU, California, Chattanooga (SoCon), Clemson, Cornell (Ivy), ETSU (ASun), Florida State, Gonzaga (WCC), Illinois, Kansas, LSU, Marquette, Missouri, Morehead State (OVC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Purdue, Radford (BSouth), Siena (MAAC), Syracuse, Texas, UCLA, Utah, VCU (CAA), Villanova, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier Top 8 from here: (Bubble) (32): Arizona, Auburn, Boston College, Cincinnati, Creighton, Davidson, Dayton, Florida, Georgetown, Green Bay, Houston, Illinois State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Niagara, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Providence, Rhode Island, San Diego State, South Carolina, St. Mary's, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Tulsa, UAB, UNLV, USC, Utah State, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Wisconsin

I'm doubting my post was among those used since it was posted 2 minutes before yours and 4 minutes after the bell. Oh well. I factored it in anyway and it didn't affect the results. :)

Full summary: Current "S-Curve" (8): 1. Pittsburgh 2. North Carolina 3. Connecticut 4. Oklahoma 5. Michigan State 6. Louisville 7. Duke 8. Memphis Other teams in (30): Arizona State, Butler, BYU, California, Chattanooga (SoCon), Clemson, Cornell (Ivy), ETSU (ASun), Florida State, Gonzaga (WCC), Illinois, Kansas, LSU, Marquette, Missouri, Morehead State (OVC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Purdue, Radford (BSouth), Siena (MAAC), Syracuse, Texas, UCLA, Utah, VCU (CAA), Villanova, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier Single-Bid Conferences (no at-large possibility) (15): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy, Mid-American, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC Other teams in consideration for between 5 and 16 bids (Bubble) (32): Arizona, Auburn, Boston College, Cincinnati, Creighton, Davidson, Dayton, Florida, Georgetown, Green Bay, Houston, Illinois State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Niagara, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Providence, Rhode Island, San Diego State, South Carolina, St. Mary's, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Tulsa, UAB, UNLV, USC, Utah State, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Wisconsin Next task: Same as today's task. Except with the next 16 (i.e. after Pitt-Memphis) teams "in", and 8 among the teams in consideration (bubble). Due end of day Tuesday. Feel free to discuss any bubble teams you think should just come off the board to clean it up.

OK, no other submissions, so here are the results: There is a clear top 8: 1. Pittsburgh 2. North Carolina 3. Connecticut 4. Oklahoma 5. Michigan State 6. Louisville 7. Duke 8. Memphis Those 8 are now set in position for the time being, ignore them for future voting. If a situation arises that anyone thinks deserves special attention with teams already set in position, we can discuss it here in the thread (i.e. MSU wins the Big Ten tournament, Oklahoma loses in the semis, does MSU push up into the 4th 1 seed?) From the other vote, there are 5 clear additions to the "in" list: 1. California 2. West Virginia 3. BYU 4. Texas 5. Utah I'll summarize everything in the next post.

Committee reps still have a half hour to submit their top 16 locks and top 8 considerations before I tally up the totals and announce the results.

Gonzaga, Siena, VCU and Chattanooga all win auto bids today, pulling them out of the at-large pool.

I'm thinking both WCC teams get in regardless. Also, I just read that St. Mary's added a game against Eastern Washington this Friday. How odd is that? That doesn't seem legal unless it's a make-up game. They still had an available game, I think, due to the preseason tournament they played. I think the sole reason they're doing this is to get Mills some extra playing time before the postseason.

Reminder to get your top 16 locks and top 8 considerations to me by the end of the night tonight to make them count. As for my picks, critique away (Illinois-free!): 1. North Carolina 2. Pittsburgh 3. Connecticut 4. Michigan State 5. Louisville 6. Duke 7. Oklahoma 8. Memphis 9. Wake Forest 10. Kansas 11. Villanova 12. Gonzaga 13. Missouri 14. UCLA 15. Syracuse 16. Washington Considerations: 1. West Virginia 2. BYU 3. Utah 4. Wisconsin 5. Texas 6. California 7. Ohio State 8. Oklahoma State