bukie
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Everything posted by bukie
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Illinois is frustrating to watch sometimes because the team seems to take some games too easy. Not enough hustle for loose balls, lazy passing, lazy offensive sets, lazy box-outs. They're actually doing pretty well here, and were at a decent energy level last Saturday. I hope the days of slacking through games are over for this team this year.
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Illinois makes their first FT against PSU, after only 66 minutes of gameplay. They're not a big FT shooting team, but that's a little ridiculous, even for them.
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First PSU-Illinois game: Illinois scores 33 points total. Second PSU-Illinois game: Illinois scores 34 points in the first half.
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A locks and bubbles list from Basketball Prospectus: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=574
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Some media "locks" and "bubble" lists: ESPN: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=90 SI: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/andy_glockner/03/02/bubble.watch/index.html CBS: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bubble
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As a contrary opinion, I think how a team finishes is at least somewhat indicative of the quality of the team they put out there. No, not to the degree of Maryland and Syracuse 3-4 years back where they jumped from out of the tourney into a first-round exit as a 4-5 seed, but let's use New Mexico as an example. They were, to put it mildly, a bad team during November and December. They've got 3 bad losses during that time. However, since the turn of the year (coinciding with the start of the conference schedule), they've been easily the best team in their conference, efficiency-wise, and are one win away from winning the MWC. Now, their overall numbers are definitely not at-large worthy, but the MWC was arguably the sixth best conference in the country this year, and winning the regular season title for the conference (and it's a double-round-robin, so every team's schedule was the same in-conference) means more to me than losing some bad games early in the year.
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As far as auto bids, tonight's games include first-round action of the Missouri Valley, Atlantic Sun and Northeast conferences, along with semifinal action in the Big South.
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Pomeroy ratings are completely based on adjusted efficiency margin (adjusted for quality of opponent). So, even with that adjustment, Memphis still has the highest efficiency margin in the country.
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Either you left them out intentionally because you represent them, or you are a defeatist fan. Illinois is a lock. Yeah, that was part of the deal. No votes for the team you represent, to try to maintain as unbiased a selection set as possible.
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I'm sure, but there's always some asinine argument that sprouts up in college sports that says you can't be a true fan of a team if you don't attend the college.
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My representation: Illinois (although, technically, I suppose I could participate as an unaffiliated commissioner, since I never actually attended Illinois, just root for them) My locks (29): ACC: UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State Big East: UConn, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin Big 12: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas Pac-10: Washington, UCLA, Arizona State SEC: LSU MWC: Utah, BYU CUSA: Memphis HORZ: Butler WCC: Gonzaga A-10: Xavier Deserve consideration: Miami, BC, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Rhode Island, Dayton, Temple, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Providence, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State, Northwestern, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas A&M, VCU, UAB, Tulsa, Houston, Siena, Creighton, San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV, California, Arizona, USC, Tennessee, Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky, Davidson, St. Mary's, Utah State
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Also, a reminder to those who want to participate to PM me your lists of locks and considerations by the end of tomorrow. If you posted them on here already and just want me to use that, just let me know for sure (I'm not sure who's all set and who's changing their lists as the week goes by). EDIT: I received 4 PMs so far. I'll post my selections here since there's no other way for me to be held accountable for my selections.
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Stanford is 69, Iowa is 81. Those are their two worst losses. Ahhh it's because we're using Pomeroy/Sagarin ratings and not the RPI. I know that Pomeroy and Sagarin are better measures of how good a team is than the RPI, but RPI is what the committee uses. That's why NW isn't getting as much hype as Tennessee. In honesty, I use Sagarin because they already have most of the factors calculated, minimal effort to generate the anonymous comparisons. :) R/N record I grab from Pomeroy, last 12 I quickly eyeball from Pomeroy (since red = loss and green = win). Even with the RPI site I linked, none of the calculations are pre-made. Pomeroy has a fantastic "nitty gritty" page on each team, and Sagarin has good quick and dirty SOS and top 25/top 50 records. Also, yes, I like Pomeroy and Sagarin as better measures of how good a team is, but RPI and Sagarin's ELO are better measures of how "accomplished" a team is. The RPI is not Northwestern's friend right now.
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Hey, a site that actually keeps up-to-date accurate RPI info: http://www.bbstate.com/standings/2009/rpi
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Stanford is 69, Iowa is 81. Those are their two worst losses.
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Oh, and today's teams A-B-C were Tennessee, Northwestern and South Carolina, respectively. Tennessee is at South Carolina tonight to decide the SEC East. I don't consider necessarily in the tournament at this point, let alone a lock.
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BC's resume: 20-10 overall, 2-4 vs. the top 25, 4-6 vs. the top 50, 2 losses outside the top 100, 6-6 R/N record, 7-5 in their last 12, SOS 47 To be honest, those 2 bad losses hurt their profile a lot, and they've had a fairly easy ACC schedule to get to 9-7 in the conference (the only upper tier team they played twice was Wake, while the only lower tier team they didn't play twice was VA). How is their profile that much different from, say, Northwestern's? A, they have at least 3 wins against top 25 teams (Duke, FSU, UNC) and only lost by 4 to Pitt. B, I would say that the ACC (top to bottom) is a better league than the Big 11. FSU is not an Sagarin top 25 team, as they're #40. Besides, Northwestern beat them too. According to Sagarin and the RPI, the ACC is the #1 conference while the Big Ten is #2 (Big East #3). The Big Ten takes a lot of flack for low scoring games, but there are 10 competitive teams and 9 teams deserving of tourney consideration. I'm not arguing that BC doesn't deserve to be in the tournament, but they certainly aren't a lock at this point. They're above most of the bubble teams, but there are so many teams so close together in the bubble area, there's no way anyone can say for sure BC is in if they lose in the first round of the ACC tourney.
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BC's resume: 20-10 overall, 2-4 vs. the top 25, 4-6 vs. the top 50, 2 losses outside the top 100, 6-6 R/N record, 7-5 in their last 12, SOS 47 To be honest, those 2 bad losses hurt their profile a lot, and they've had a fairly easy ACC schedule to get to 9-7 in the conference (the only upper tier team they played twice was Wake, while the only lower tier team they didn't play twice was VA). How is their profile that much different from, say, Northwestern's?
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I'm showing Team B as 7-5 their last 12. Whoops, I miscounted the games (To do the last 12, I just count back 12 and count the losses...I counted the last game even though it wasn't played yet). Fixed it. Still, pretty amazing, no?
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Because I love these anonymous comparisons so much... Team A: 18-10 record, 1-4 vs. the top 25, 4-5 vs. the top 50, no losses outside the top 100, 8-6 R/N record, 7-5 in the last 12, SOS 16 Team B: 17-11 record, 2-3 vs. the top 25, 6-8 vs. the top 50, no losses outside the top 100, 4-7 R/N record, 7-5 in the last 12, SOS 33 Team C: 20-7 record, 0-1 vs. the top 25, 1-4 vs. the top 50, 1 loss outside the top 100, 4-6 R/N record, 8-4 in the last 12, SOS 130 How would you rank them?
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the big ten doesn't stand a chance in the tournament. purdue looks terrible on a fairly regular basis... illinois held to 33 at home... purdue dominates michigan state by 19... really... i don't think anyone in the big ten would be in the top 3-4 in the acc or big east... except the Big 10 actually plays defense. Get Duke or North Carolina away from the ACC refs and see how far their flopping gets them Duke and North Carolina did pretty well on the road in the Big 10-ACC Challenge games on the road. Yeah, the low scores have a lot more to do with team pace than defense. Though, there are a few really good defenses in the Big Ten (Purdue, Illinois, MSU).
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One more thing I noticed while looking at team information in putting together my locks...Michigan State is a LOT closer to a 1 seed than many of the ESPN pundits would care to admit, especially with Oklahoma losing tonight. UConn, UNC, Pitt, Louisville, Duke, MSU, Memphis is likely the group that has a shot at 1 seeds at this point, and I would put MSU currently 4th or 5th in the group, neck and neck with Louisville.
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It's a weird offseason when a team that desperately needs WR help has no interest in signing any of the FA crop that is headlined by Marvin Harrison and TO.
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We all know that you're only going to irrationally punish Missouri. ;)
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It's so annoying how the Big Ten gets bashed unreasonably for the slow pace they play. Hell, Tom Brennan bashed the Big Ten 3 days ago by saying only 3 teams deserved to be in, and that teams like Maryland, Miami, and Wisconsin deserved to be in there over the rest of the Big Ten.
