Jump to content
North Side Baseball

bukie

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,570

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    21

 Content Type 

Profiles

Joomla Posts 1

Chicago Cubs Videos

Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking

News

2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks

Guides & Resources

2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks

The Chicago Cubs Players Project

2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Chicago Cubs Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Blogs

Events

Forums

Store

Gallery

Everything posted by bukie

  1. bukie
    Because until all teams are connected, he makes use of results prior to this year to connect the teams (i.e. the Bayesian process). Thus, ratings are generated from past results to connect teams that are not yet connected from current results.
  2. bukie
    I mean, the guy played soccer, softball, and went to a water park. I don't think you can get any more unprofessional than that.
  3. bukie
    Why is BYU a better team than Virginia Tech? Because they performed better in two wins versus comparable opponents (SOS 34 vs. 39) than VT did in a win and a loss. Why is Oklahoma rated better than Alabama? Because they performed better in a win and a loss versus somewhat comparable opponents (SOS 60 vs. 47) than Alabama did in two wins. And yes, winning by 50 makes more of a difference than winning by 23, even with diminishing returns awarded for higher margins, as Sagarin uses. There is currently a very small sample size, and not every team is connected yet (meaning there is a way to link every team to every other team through games played), so there are obviously going to be more flaws in the ratings early than as the season progresses. I'm sure the system also doesn't take into account that, for example, Oklahoma's QB is out the first half of the year, so those results will be affected as such. At this point, even one week's worth of results adds an additional 50%+ of results to the current set of data (since there are at most 2 weeks of results for teams at this point), so the ratings will continue to fluctuate wildly from week to week, even to the end of the season. To me, though, even with its limitations, it's still a better gauge of current results than the human polls, which rarely take actual results into the voting.
  4. bukie
    I disagree. At least that's actually based on the results on the field, and not some imaginary level of competency assigned to a team in the preseason. For the first few weeks of the season, the starting ratings have weight in the process http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htm Maybe by the end of the season they will be better, but not right now. Alabama beat Virginia Tech by 10 points and then beat FIU #113, by 26 points. Oklahoma lost to BYU by 1 point and then beat #151 by 64 points. So OU's win over a crappy team by 64 points outweighs Alabama beating the #12 team by 10 points enough to cancel out the loss to BYU? Since BYU is a better team than Virginia Tech, yes. It's not perfect by any means, but it's a better measure than human polls.
  5. bukie
    Ohio State won by 4 and lost by 3, if scoring margin is all that matters how do they rank 4? By taking into account opponents scoring margin and opponents' opponents scoring margin. Their strength of schedule is measured higher than any other top 50 team at this point by playing two quality teams to this point.
  6. bukie
    I disagree. At least that's actually based on the results on the field, and not some imaginary level of competency assigned to a team in the preseason. If on-field results lead you to believe that Virginia Tech or Missouri are top 20 teams right now, then your system is wrong. If on-field results lead to Miami being a top 10 team, the system is wrong. No, it just means the system disagrees with common perception. Except with Virginia Tech, which is a top 20 team everywhere except apparently in your mind. The points system is by far the more accurate of the two, as the inability to take margin into effect severely limits the accuracy of any analysis.
  7. bukie
    I disagree. At least that's actually based on the results on the field, and not some imaginary level of competency assigned to a team in the preseason.
  8. bukie
    Because I hate the human polls at this point, here's the top 25 according to Sagarin, two ways: 1) Pure Points (where scoring margin is all that matters - also the best predictor of future results, in general): 1. USC 2. Oklahoma 3. BYU 4. Ohio State 5. Texas 6. Boise State 7. LSU 8. California 9. Penn State 10. Alabama 11. Florida 12. Virginia Tech 13. Nebraska 14. Notre Dame 15. TCU 16. Tennessee 17. Missouri 18. Iowa 19. Michigan 20. Clemson 21. South Carolina 22. Arizona State 23. Oklahoma State 24. Auburn 25. Oregon 2) Elo-Chess (where only winning and losing matters...i.e. the BCS version): 1. USC 2. Boise State 3. Alabama 4. Ohio State 5. LSU 6. BYU 7. Utah 8. Miami-FL 9. California 10. Oregon 11. Houston 12. North Carolina 13. Missouri 14. TCU 15. Oklahoma State 16. Georgia 17. Virginia Tech 18. Georgia Tech 19. Texas 20. Florida 21. Wisconsin 22. Arizona 23. UCLA 24. Michigan 25. Baylor
  9. bukie
    That Niemann start is going to end up killing me. Even 10 points out of him and I'd be up 40.
  10. bukie
    Big day for me with 3 starts. Could use a good hundred point day to at least make it tough.
  11. bukie
    Well, here's hoping I can somehow beat Tim's team 3 times in a year.
  12. bukie
    And now you've done it.
  13. bukie
    Half the teams don't play anybody until then. We'd basically end up with the preseason preview magazine polls restated, minus any team that gets upset. Yeah, and I'm sure there would be many voters who had their own poll (or used the coaches poll) and adjusted it each week instead of assessing after 5-6 weeks. But at least waiting to release the polls would give the illusion that it's a bit more accurate. While I think that's the best way, I don't think there's a good way to run a sport based off of subjective opinions. Well, they used to run the BCS mostly off statistical analysis, but people's subjective opinions had their feelings hurt.
  14. bukie
    I should be in line to get 2 starts each from Haren, Wolf and Niemann, but CBS only indicates the first start for each, so, who knows.
  15. bukie
    You aren't worried about the inexperienced receivers? The terrible o-line play? Injuries? Cutler's bad decision making? The average coach that Lovie is? The poor DBs the Bears put out there? Considering that even with all that, the Bears dominated offensively, no. Any fool with half a brain could see that.
  16. bukie
    There are plenty of positives to take away from the game. The offense dominated basically the entire second half and were driving well in the first half also. The defense held the Packers to two long-range FG attempts and notched a safety (along with the one-yard TD) until that last blown play by Vasher. Turnovers and special teams gaffes led directly to 10 Packers points and additionally killed two drives on the Packers end of the field. I'm not worried about this team at all, aside from the injuries to the LBs. They really did have their way with the Packers, just made too many mistakes.
  17. bukie
    The punishment for Serena's outburst was a penalty point that resulted in the end of the match. There won't be anything beyond that, except possibly a fine. But has anyone ever threatened a line judge like that before? Mary Carillo said that was the worst outburst by a woman she has ever seen and possibly the worse outburst of any sort she had seen on the court. Defaulting a match is really the worst on-court penalty you can give a player. A suspension would do nothing, as players don't play half the tournaments as is. The Williams sisters, especially, as they play fewer tournaments than anyone (and then whine about how they're not #1).
  18. bukie
    The punishment for Serena's outburst was a penalty point that resulted in the end of the match. There won't be anything beyond that, except possibly a fine.
  19. bukie
    I'm not sure how many starts I ended up having this week, but I know Wolf was given a couple extra days rest so he'll have 2 starts next week.
  20. bukie
    They're probably erring on the side of too strict early on here so that the officials can maintain control through the whole game.
  21. bukie
    The ND special teams and the Michigan D are noticeably bad thus far.
  22. bukie
    36 hours later, northsidebaseball.com goes to the right place. :)
  23. bukie
    Still IP only here. Never have been able to resolve the domain correctly.
  24. bukie
    The winner of the coin flip still has an advantage. You're saying the onus is on the defense to overcome that advantage. It's an advantage, but the game isn't over.
  25. bukie
    72-67 now. If they can get to 92-67... ...they still might not make the playoffs.
×
×
  • Create New...