bukie

The MWC is going to win.

Really, Illinois is disappointing defensively, for the most part, which can be fixed. If Weber can get the freshmen to buy into the perimeter defense for an entire game, Illinois is really dangerous.

From what I've seen so far, this is how I think the Big Ten will shake out this year: 1. Purdue 2. Michigan State 3. Wisconsin 4. Minnesota 5. Ohio State (would be higher if Turner were around the whole year, probably #2) 6. Northwestern 7. Illinois 8. Michigan 9. Penn State 10. Indiana 11. Iowa

I think best case scenario at this point is that Cutler has another good game to get some of the critics off his back heading into next year. It's been a forgetful year for Jay, but he's with the Bears for the long haul, and is a better player than often given credit for around here.

Looks like Sharp will get a rest, at least. Did Niemi get chosen for Finland? EDIT: Found info on team Finland, and Niemi didn't get picked. Goalies for Finland are Kiprusoff, Backstrom, and Nittymaki.

I think it might have been CSN where you heard it originally, because I don't remember anything on ESPN.

If the Packers win, they'll play Arizona again the following week. If the Packers lose, they'll still play Arizona the following week if the Eagles and Vikings win.

OK, I don't know why this bothers me, but do you mean personnel or personal? You did this a lot over the last day or so, and I'm trying to distinguish what you mean. I haven't been posting for a day or so, but I meant personnel and I'm not sure why that wasn't obvious despite the spelling error. Mostly because both versions could have potentially made sense in context, so I wasn't sure whether you were thought the team had a personnel (talent) issue or a personal (problems with the coaching) issue.

OK, I don't know why this bothers me, but do you mean personnel or personal? You did this a lot over the last day or so, and I'm trying to distinguish what you mean.

Games that mean something: SUN, JAN 3 TIME (ET) Jacksonville at Cleveland 1:00 PM Pittsburgh at Miami 1:00 PM NY Giants at Minnesota 1:00 PM New England at Houston 1:00 PM Green Bay at Arizona 4:15 PM Baltimore at Oakland 4:15 PM Philadelphia at Dallas 4:15 PM Kansas City at Denver 4:15 PM Cincinnati at NY Jets 8:20 PM Games that mean nothing: SUN, JAN 3 TIME (ET) Indianapolis at Buffalo 1:00 PM Chicago at Detroit 1:00 PM San Francisco at St. Louis 1:00 PM Atlanta at Tampa Bay 1:00 PM New Orleans at Carolina 1:00 PM Washington at San Diego 4:15 PM Tennessee at Seattle 4:15 PM AFC tiebreaker scenarios NFC tiebreaker scenarios

wasnt manning hurt? No, Tillman was hurt, so Manning was on the field playing D the whole 4th quarter.

One last thing: expected final conference standings based on current level of play (scoring only): Eastern Conference: New Jersey - 120 Washington - 119 Buffalo - 108 Pittsburgh - 113 Boston - 98 Atlanta - 95 NY Rangers - 92 Philadelphia - 90 ---------------------------- Montreal - 88 Ottawa - 86 Florida - 81 Tampa Bay - 75 Toronto - 74 NY Islanders - 69 Carolina - 57 Western Conference: Chicago - 127 San Jose - 115 Vancouver - 115 Phoenix - 108 Calgary - 101 Colorado - 96 Los Angeles - 94 Detroit - 92 ------------------- Nashville - 91 Dallas - 88 Minnesota - 86 St. Louis - 85 Anaheim - 79 Edmonton - 78 Columbus - 71

NHL metrics, or, how good the Blackhawks really are: The 'Hawks no longer have games in hand on most of the NHL, but their average points per game is still second in the league: Team PPG New Jersey 1.4722 Chicago 1.4474 Washington 1.4211 San Jose 1.3947 Pittsburgh 1.3590 Buffalo 1.3158 Phoenix 1.2821 Colorado 1.2500 Los Angeles 1.2368 Boston 1.2162 Calgary 1.2162 Nashville 1.2051 Vancouver 1.1795 Detroit 1.1316 Dallas 1.1316 Ottawa 1.1053 Atlanta 1.0811 Minnesota 1.0789 NY Rangers 1.0526 St. Louis 1.0263 Montreal 1.0250 Philadelphia 1.0000 Florida 0.9750 Tampa Bay 0.9737 Anaheim 0.9737 NY Islanders 0.9250 Toronto 0.9250 Columbus 0.8974 Edmonton 0.8947 Carolina 0.6579 However, the 'Hawks goal differential is so good (tops in the league), that according to simply Pythagorean calculations, they're the second-most underperforming team comparing actual to expected record: Team EXP-DIFF Vancouver +8.6 Chicago +3.8 Philadelphia +3.6 Atlanta +3.1 NY Rangers +2.4 Edmonton +2.3 Montreal +2.0 Phoenix +1.3 Washington +1.3 Carolina +1.2 Pittsburgh +0.8 St. Louis +0.5 Calgary +0.5 Florida +0.5 San Jose +0.3 Buffalo +0.0 Detroit -0.2 New Jersey -0.5 Anaheim -0.6 Boston -0.7 Minnesota -1.1 Toronto -1.1 Columbus -1.4 Tampa Bay -2.1 Ottawa -2.3 Dallas -2.4 NY Islanders -3.1 Colorado -3.4 Los Angeles -3.4 Nashville -3.8 So, this all adds up to the rankings by expected point total (for each team's games played): Team EXP Chicago 58.8 Washington 55.3 Vancouver 54.6 Pittsburgh 53.8 San Jose 53.3 New Jersey 52.5 Phoenix 51.3 Buffalo 50.0 Colorado 46.6 Calgary 45.5 Boston 44.3 Los Angeles 43.6 Nashville 43.2 Atlanta 43.1 Montreal 43.0 Detroit 42.8 NY Rangers 42.4 Philadelphia 41.6 Dallas 40.6 Minnesota 39.9 Ottawa 39.7 St. Louis 39.5 Florida 39.5 Anaheim 36.4 Edmonton 36.3 Toronto 35.9 Tampa Bay 34.9 NY Islanders 33.9 Columbus 33.6 Carolina 26.2 So, as good as the Blackhawks have been, they can probably be better.

Lesson learned: Never save a good team. By the time you use them, they may not be a good team anymore.

I'm thinking screen pass that goes for 85.

UZR's best defenders of the decade That is the list Rob Neyer asked Michael Lichtman for to determine best defenders at each position for the decade. ESPN's poll is based on that. Neyer is one of the 3 most adamant defenders of sabermetrics in mainstream media these days, and one of the best baseball writers in America.

They only hold the tiebreaker over Miami and Houston if they don't tie with them and another team. So, the Titans will make the playoffs at 9-7 if no team other than Miami OR Houston finish 9-7, but not both of them.

Also, as to how safe a 7-point lead is in the NHL: The average NHL team this year accrues 1.13 points per game. So, dropping 7 points to the rest of the conference would take over 6 games straight of losing, if all teams had played the same number of games. However, since the Blackhawks have actually played 2-4 games less than the rest of the conference, add 2-4 games to that. So, to fall out of the playoffs with a 7 point cushion and 2-4 games in hand, the Blackhawks would have to drop 8-11 straight. As for the Preds catching them, if the Hawks continue playing at their current pace, the Preds would catch them going 9-0.

Here are the NHL standings based on PPG, with a column extrapolating to 82 games to give a standard basis for separation between teams: Eastern PPG P-82 01. New Jersey 1.500 123 02. Pittsburgh 1.417 116 03. Washington 1.389 114 04. Buffalo 1.324 109 05. Boston 1.147 94 06. Atlanta 1.147 94 07. Ottawa 1.143 94 08. NY Rangers 1.000 82 09. Florida 1.000 82 10. Montreal 0.946 78 11. Tampa Bay 0.943 77 12. Philadelphia 0.941 77 13. NY Islanders 0.917 75 14. Toronto 0.917 75 15. Carolina 0.686 56 Western PPG P-82 01. Chicago 1.441 118 02. San Jose 1.343 110 03. Nashville 1.306 107 04. Los Angeles 1.270 104 05. Calgary 1.257 103 06. Colorado 1.243 102 07. Phoenix 1.222 100 08. Dallas 1.171 96 09. Vancouver 1.143 94 10. Detroit 1.139 93 11. Minnesota 1.057 87 12. St. Louis 1.000 82 13. Anaheim 1.000 82 14. Columbus 0.972 80 15. Edmonton 0.971 80

Yep, still ridiculous. I'll take New Orleans over Tampa next week.

Stanford is not a bad team, either. They only averaged 11 TOs per game coming into today, and NU forced 18 or something. Go 'Cats! Stanford really isn't a good team this year. They have 2 home losses already to not great teams, and a bad loss at San Diego as well, coupled with zero decent wins. Their best effort was an OT loss to Kentucky on a neutral floor.

Pac-10 futility watch: USC leads Tennessee 33-20 at halftime at home. Could finally be a good win for the conference. Barring that, ASU plays San Diego State tonight, and they're favored. SD State is a quality MWC team, and would easily count as a top 50 win also.

Heck, why not ask Nebraska, Kentucky or Tennessee? At least they're closer to Big Ten country.

Here's another good article on expansion possibilities and likelihood. I agree with most everything he says, except maybe the Syracuse likelihood.

Stanford came oh-so-close tonight, falling 71-70 at home to Oklahoma State. Still no good wins for the conference. Also, Oregon State lost at UIC to give the Flames their first win against a D-1 team.