bukie

Uh ... I'd challenge the notion that the Nationals are unlikely to make the playoffs in 2012. Not saying they will, but that's a very strong team ... without Fielder/Harper/Rendon. Add in the system to make trades, and I think their chances of making the playoffs are as good as most of the perceived top teams in the majors. I have a hard time seeing the Nationals in the Top 2 of a group that includes Atlanta, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Washington, and probably a team from the West as well. Their odds are better with the two chances you give them, though... ;)

He decommitted basically on signing day after repeatedly telling everyone that he was staying, preventing Illinois from having a chance to replace his decommit. Thus the irony in being upset about someone telling him he was staying and then turning around and trading him.

A top tier. Not THE top tier. He's not Calvin Johnson, Wes Welker, Fitz, Andre Johnson, Roddy White. He's not even Brandon Marshall, Mike Wallace, Hakeem Nicks or a healthy Steve Smith. He's a top 20 receiver easily, possibly top 15. Efficiency-wise, he was actually better than Nicks, Fitz, Steve Smith, Roddy White and Brandon Marshall. All the same, he may have been the third best receiver on his own team (Gates/Floyd).

I don't. Bowe is an average receiver that got a ton of targets on a terrible team.

Jackson had a 52% catch rate this year, which is low for a top tier WR. However, he's definitely a top tier WR, and leagues better than anything the Bears have currently.

Aren't the Rangers among the competition? Or is everyone assuming they're out because of the Darvish bid?

Because HR/FB rates are extremely volatile? In what must have been the last few minutes, fangraphs actually put up an article detailing the effectiveness of FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and the various projection systems at predicting future performance. Click here I'll be honest, after reading that I'm considering making the jump to SIERA as my go-to. Just for giggles, here's the aggregate 2010-2011 SIERA for some players relevant to the discussion (I only did two years because Travis Wood only has two years of data): Mat Latos: 3.33 Hiroki Kuroda: 3.60 Roy Oswalt: 3.64 Ubaldo Jimenez: 3.71 Ryan Dempster: 3.76 Matt Garza: 3.79 CJ Wilson: 3.80 Edwin Jackson: 3.92 Gio Gonzalez: 3.98 Trevor Cahill: 4.08 Travis Wood: 4.22 Chris Volstad: 4.23 Rick Porcello: 4.25 Randy Wells: 4.31 Carlos Zambrano: 4.39 Paul Maholm: 4.40 Mark Buehrle: 4.56 Joe Saunders: 4.70

You can use either for either, a similar point applies either way. The biggest difference between FIP and xFIP is normalization of HRs/FB. For Wood, he was better than average at limiting HRs and Volstad was worse than average, which is a little odd considering where each played the majority of their games. i know that. i'm just pointing out that people are kind of cherry-picking a little bit. with wood, everyone just said LOOK AT HIS FIP and ignored the fact that xfip said he was hr lucky last year. now we're all brushing off volstad's fip and saying he'll be fine due to hr normalization. That doesn't mean I don't enjoy Neyer's implication that the Cubs just traded Zambrano for a younger Gio Gonzalez.

You can use either for either, a similar point applies either way. The biggest difference between FIP and xFIP is normalization of HRs/FB. For Wood, he was better than average at limiting HRs and Volstad was worse than average, which is a little odd considering where each played the majority of their games.

It'd take a few minutes, but not that difficult. Here's the list if anyone wants to go through the trouble. Name Team Year WAR Type Josh Hamilton Rangers 2010 8.5 H Evan Longoria Rays 2010 7.6 H Carl Crawford Rays 2010 7.6 H Albert Pujols Cardinals 2010 7.5 H Joey Votto Reds 2010 7.3 H Ryan Zimmerman Nationals 2010 7.2 H Adrian Beltre Red Sox 2010 7 F Jose Bautista Blue Jays 2010 6.8 T Andres Torres Giants 2010 6.8 F Matt Holliday Cardinals 2010 6.7 T Robinson Cano Yankees 2010 6.5 H Rickie Weeks Brewers 2010 6.5 H Troy Tulowitzki Rockies 2010 6.5 H Carlos Gonzalez Rockies 2010 6.5 T Miguel Cabrera Tigers 2010 6.3 T Brett Gardner Yankees 2010 6.1 H Aubrey Huff Giants 2010 6 F Shin-Soo Choo Indians 2010 5.9 H Kelly Johnson Diamondbacks 2010 5.9 F Joe Mauer Twins 2010 5.6 H Angel Pagan Mets 2010 5.5 T Chase Utley Phillies 2010 5.4 H Jay Bruce Reds 2010 5.4 H Jayson Werth Phillies 2010 5.3 F Adrian Gonzalez Padres 2010 5.2 T Stephen Drew Diamondbacks 2010 5.1 H Daric Barton Athletics 2010 5.1 H Jason Heyward Braves 2010 5.1 H Cliff Lee - - - 2010 7.2 T Roy Halladay Phillies 2010 6.6 T Ubaldo Jimenez Rockies 2010 6.4 H Justin Verlander Tigers 2010 6.4 H Josh Johnson Marlins 2010 6.3 H Felix Hernandez Mariners 2010 6.2 H Adam Wainwright Cardinals 2010 6.1 H Francisco Liriano Twins 2010 6 H Jered Weaver Angels 2010 5.8 H Jon Lester Red Sox 2010 5.7 H CC Sabathia Yankees 2010 5.2 F Zack Greinke Royals 2010 5.1 H Jacoby Ellsbury Red Sox 2011 9.4 H Matt Kemp Dodgers 2011 8.7 H Jose Bautista Blue Jays 2011 8.3 T Dustin Pedroia Red Sox 2011 8 H Ryan Braun Brewers 2011 7.8 H Ian Kinsler Rangers 2011 7.7 H Miguel Cabrera Tigers 2011 7.3 T Curtis Granderson Yankees 2011 7 T Alex Gordon Royals 2011 6.9 H Joey Votto Reds 2011 6.9 H Ben Zobrist Rays 2011 6.6 H Adrian Gonzalez Red Sox 2011 6.6 T Justin Upton Diamondbacks 2011 6.4 H Troy Tulowitzki Rockies 2011 6.3 H Jose Reyes Mets 2011 6.2 H Evan Longoria Rays 2011 6.1 H Brandon Phillips Reds 2011 6 T Shane Victorino Phillies 2011 5.9 H Howie Kendrick Angels 2011 5.8 H Adrian Beltre Rangers 2011 5.7 F Andrew McCutchen Pirates 2011 5.7 H Robinson Cano Yankees 2011 5.6 H Alex Avila Tigers 2011 5.5 H Prince Fielder Brewers 2011 5.5 H Jhonny Peralta Tigers 2011 5.2 T Brett Gardner Yankees 2011 5.1 H Albert Pujols Cardinals 2011 5.1 H Matt Holliday Cardinals 2011 5 T Lance Berkman Cardinals 2011 5 F Roy Halladay Phillies 2011 8.2 T CC Sabathia Yankees 2011 7.1 F Justin Verlander Tigers 2011 7 H Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 2011 6.8 H Cliff Lee Phillies 2011 6.7 F Dan Haren Angels 2011 6.4 T C.J. Wilson Rangers 2011 5.9 H Jered Weaver Angels 2011 5.6 H Doug Fister - - - 2011 5.6 T Felix Hernandez Mariners 2011 5.5 H Madison Bumgarner Giants 2011 5.5 H Matt Cain Giants 2011 5.2 H Matt Garza Cubs 2011 5 T Ian Kennedy Diamondbacks 2011 5 T Chris Carpenter Cardinals 2011 5 F Albert Pujols Cardinals 2009 9 H Ben Zobrist Rays 2009 8.7 H Chase Utley Phillies 2009 8.2 H Joe Mauer Twins 2009 7.9 H Evan Longoria Rays 2009 7.6 H Hanley Ramirez Marlins 2009 7.4 H Ryan Zimmerman Nationals 2009 7.3 H Derek Jeter Yankees 2009 7.1 H Chone Figgins Angels 2009 6.9 H Prince Fielder Brewers 2009 6.4 H Franklin Gutierrez Mariners 2009 6.3 T Adrian Gonzalez Padres 2009 6.2 T Carl Crawford Rays 2009 5.9 H Kevin Youkilis Red Sox 2009 5.9 H Troy Tulowitzki Rockies 2009 5.7 H Matt Holliday - - - 2009 5.6 T Pablo Sandoval Giants 2009 5.5 H Jason Bartlett Rays 2009 5.5 F Ichiro Suzuki Mariners 2009 5.4 F Miguel Cabrera Tigers 2009 5.3 T Derrek Lee Cubs 2009 5.3 T Matt Kemp Dodgers 2009 5.2 H Nyjer Morgan - - - 2009 5.2 T Mark Teixeira Yankees 2009 5.2 F Shin-Soo Choo Indians 2009 5.1 H Jayson Werth Phillies 2009 5 F Dustin Pedroia Red Sox 2009 5 H Zack Greinke Royals 2009 9.3 H Justin Verlander Tigers 2009 8.3 H Tim Lincecum Giants 2009 8 H Roy Halladay Blue Jays 2009 7.4 H Felix Hernandez Mariners 2009 6.8 H Cliff Lee - - - 2009 6.6 T Javier Vazquez Braves 2009 6.5 T CC Sabathia Yankees 2009 6.4 F Jon Lester Red Sox 2009 6.4 H Dan Haren Diamondbacks 2009 6.1 T Ubaldo Jimenez Rockies 2009 5.9 H Adam Wainwright Cardinals 2009 5.7 H Josh Johnson Marlins 2009 5.6 H Chris Carpenter Cardinals 2009 5.6 F Josh Beckett Red Sox 2009 5.5 T From that list, of the 78 seasons of homegrown players, 69 were drafted/signed internationally, and just 9 seasons from 6 players via minor league trade: - Daric Barton (traded from Cards with Dan Haren to A's for Mark Mulder) - Shin-Soo Choo (traded from Mariners to Indians for Ben Broussard) - Chone Figgins (traded from Rockies to Angels for Kimera Bartee) - Hanley Ramirez (traded from Red Sox to Marlins in Josh Beckett deal) - Adam Wainwright (traded from Braves to Cards for JD Drew) - Ben Zobrist (traded from Astros to Rays for Aubrey Huff) So, the vast majority of star players have been acquired through the draft or international signings.

Didn't read the defined terms, I see. He wasn't traded to the Rangers after reaching the majors? Wasn't he still a rookie his first year with the rangers? I don't know how TT counts players with less than a year of ML service time. The overall point is he wasn't acquired as a FA. He had a successful year with the Reds and then was traded to the Rangers for Volquez.

How difficult would it be to split "Homegrown" into "Drafted" and "Acquired as a minor leaguer"?

Rob Neyer weighs in on Sir Christopher of Volstad, Archduke of xFIP.

The front office obviously feels they'd rather gamble on Volstad being more valuable than Zambrano this year overall. If the gamble doesn't pan out, they non tender Volstad at the end of the season. If it does, he's under team control for two additional seasons at less than 15 million.

There's no reason to blow a season of eligibility on a lost year either. DeJesus is a good signing.

The only thing I really don't like about the trade is Kaplan's resulting smugness about it.

so who'd we get for garza, fill me in please. I'm getting ahead of myself. It appears a trade is imminent...just forecasting. A trade is imminent? That's news to me. Yeah, Zambrano. Didn't you hear?

Fortunately, the Bulls just have one stretch of three games in three days and the third game is home vs the Wizards. Still...every starter except Rose had a decent break tonight. Lucas wasn't awful in his time, he needs to be getting more than 8 minutes.

one issue i had with that fangraphs piece is that zambrano has, up until last year, consistently outpitched his xFIP, to the point where you can't just write it off as a fluke. even with his ERA being a half run higher than his xFIP last year, his career ERA is still more than a half run higher than his xFIP. Yea. There was that and the fact that they mentioned how Volstad had 60+ more innings when Zambrano's inning total was obviously severely impacted by his "suspension." The author alluded to that in the article.

Every starter has gotten a good break in the game except Rose, which I hope isn't a trend while CJ is out.

It was, but god it was ugly. Well, they're a great defensive team and a bad offensive team. Ugly is what you get when you put those two together.

Wait...they won? That's a good road win any way you look at it.

Really great analysis of the last play the Bulls called last night: http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/13257/breaking-down-the-bulls-final-possession

And they still somehow lost the match.

.850 for LaHair. Just enough to annoy everyone.