The chronology of the offseason is going to play a role. They can't really pull the trigger on McCown until after the draft and franchise window. If no QB is drafted, I'd expect McCown to be back. I don't think drafting an early-round QB is a given, unless the chances of a Cutler extension look to be especially bleak. You can't go into free agency with 0 QBs. I think this increases the chances Jay is back. If the franchise deadline passes and Jay is not tagged, I think that means he will not be back and in that case, I think you sign McCown the first day of free agency. The draft isn't til May this year. The Bears will have either Cutler or McCown on the roster by then. I don't see much chance they have both though, simply because of the price tags both will command.