I agree. They also don't take into account the home stadium the player was playing in at the time or adjustsments the player's has made to his swing. Sometimes players gain a new level of mastery over a new pitch or hitting the inside fastball in the case of DLee and it leads to a whole new level of production. Regressive projections fail to take developments like those into account. Go see the baseball discussions thread on this topic: PECOTA has his stats progressing, regressing and then progressing again. That's really helpful. Are you referring to his projected production progessing, regressing and then progressing again? Or are you referring to the method of projection? I was referring to the method used to create a projection, a method based solely on his previous statistics and thus called a regressive projection. Such a projection doesn't take into account the ballpark the player was playing in at the time or adjustments he has made such as mastering a new pitch or hitting the inside fastball, etc. what do you mean they don't take into account ballpark? of course they do. do you know anything about this stuff? I know enough about these so called projections to know they are not an exact science. Conjecture maybe, science no. The main question is do people want Lee for next year, well if so, these are the deals being signed.