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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    It's less likely, but it may not be entirely due to factors under his control. Such as the ballpark...
  2. Rob
    Gotta remember, 2020 was shortened by COVID. Dansby put up 2.1 fWAR in just 60 games that season. Here's the leaderboard for SS in the three years prior to signing with us: Trea Turner (16.3 fWAR) Francisco Lindor (12.2) Carlos Correa (12.1) Dansby Swanson (11.9) Xander Bogaerts (11.7) Bo Bichette (10.6) Corey Seager (10.4) Dansby had clearly established himself in the upper tier of MLB SS. If you include 2023-2024, he's still in fourth place, behind Seager but ahead of Correa. Dansby was not some god awful signing, and I'm confounded by the revisionist history that somehow completely forgets about last year and says that this year means the contract was bad.
  3. Rob
    Yeah. Part of me was rooting for the Cubs to trade him during the offseason. I was worried his value might tank if he showed an inability to play the field. But this feels like getting pretty close to full value for Morel's potential despite the last few months. So I'm good.
  4. Rob
    I do fear that the Rays will be the ones to somehow take Morel's prodigious physical tools and coach him into being a passable defender somewhere on the diamond. He could be a 5 fWAR player if that ever happens. But when it comes right down to it, this is just an exchange of risk profiles. We gave up a guy with a bat and a risky glove, and got a guy with a glove and a risky bat. Given the dearth of 3B options in our system, this makes an awful lot of sense.
  5. Rob
    Jason Heyward put up 7.1 fWAR over 7 seasons in a Cubs uniform. Dansby Swason has put up 6.4 fWAR in a season and a half. He was the 5th most valuable SS in baseball last season. The two situations are not remotely comparable.
  6. Rob
    Wow. Jed is taking a big gamble on Paredes batted ball profile translating to Wrigley. I don't love the gamble, but I guess let's see what we're giving up. On a side note, as I outlined a couple days ago in an earlier thread, all of this can be traced back to the Matt Garza trade. We gave up Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Sam Fuld, Brandon Guyer, and Robinson Chirinos. Archer was later flipped to the Pirates for Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows. Meadows was later flipped to the Tigers for Paredes So if we'd never traded for Garza, Paredes would have never made it to TB where he had his big breakout, and we'd have never probably traded for him. Edit: And i totally forgot that we originally drafted Paredes. Bizarre!
  7. Rob
    I absolutely believe Jed would say he doesn't know what he wants to do. In fact, I'd be shocked if he wasn't saying that. It ostensibly shifts the burden on buyers from "this is the best offer you've received" to "this ought to convince you to sell." From that perspective, whether it's true or not, acting like he's undecided is the smart play. And honestly? I wouldn't blame him even if he's still undecided. This isn't 2021's firesale where it was obvious they all needed to go. Determining whether or not to sell a guy like Taillon isn't as simple as looking at what's left on his contract and what the offer is. The comfort of selling on him may be contingent upon what Jed feels like the rotation options would be in 2025 to replace Taillon. Some of that could be based not just on the Taillon move, but on other moves we might make to bring in potential starters. I could see a lot moving pieces needing to come together just right for Jed to be willing to pull the trigger. Maybe Jed isn't willing to move Taillon unless he gets a guy being talked about in a Happ or Bellinger trade that's having some trouble coming together. So it wouldn't be clear to Jed whether he's moving Taillon or not. We'll know soon enough.
  8. Rob
    Testing
  9. Rob
    I'm actually a big fan of the Earl Weaver method of managing.
  10. Rob
    We exchanged our fringe talent for actual talent. The reason the actual talent was available was because that actual talent hasn't translated to production yet. But there's plenty of arm for the development staff to work with. Maybe Pearson turns into something. Maybe not. But on the chance he does turn into something, there's a real potential for it to be something special. Nobody is here creaming our pants or anything of the sort. It's a numbers game. But we just got a better lotto ticket than the two we traded away. So it was a good trade.
  11. Rob
    Pearson is a former top prospect who hits 102 on the gun, but that's arguably his weakest pitch. Not even you can be so obtuse as to see no clear upside there. You're just grumpy. Go eat a snickers.
  12. Rob
    Jake Arrieta posted ERAs of 4.66, 5.05, 6.20, and 7.23 in his final season before the Cubs traded for him. His strikeout rate, walk rate, home run rate, and even his groundball rate all sucked prior to his acquisition. He was 27 at the time. Obviously, I am not attempting to equate the two. Jake Arrieta was an all-time dumpster-diving success story. I don't expect nearly the same from Pearson. The point is that sometimes you see something in a player that you think you can fix. And then sometimes you fix it. Presumably, the Cubs think they've got what it takes to fix Pearson, and with the obvious physical tools that he has that could make him something special. I wont begrudge the Cubs for giving up two dumpy prospects for a guy who could obviously be pretty darn good if things break right for us.
  13. Rob
    Yup. While we aren't out of it just yet, we're down to about a 3.8% chance to make the playoffs, according to fangraphs. I said there wasn't enough talent on the block to make us prime competitors, and I stand by that. Even if we were buying Crochet and Chisholm and everybody else on the block, we still aren't getting to a 50%+ odds of making the playoffs. Is there a chance the team starts hitting and weasels its way into the final playoff spot? Sure. It's just not likely no matter what we do. So it'd be silly to assume that Jed is out there trying to make 2024 happen.
  14. Rob
    I can't work up any actual care for the Olympics. But watching people freak out over the irreverent opening ceremonies has been fun.
  15. Rob
    It's not like that at all. There isn't enough talent on the trade block to make us prime competitors. So the buys we make aren't really geared at this season. Pearson is a fine reclamation project for 2025/2026. If we get anything out of him this season, great. But nobody with a room temperature IQ thinks this was about making us competitive for the world series this year.
  16. Rob
    Last year he was totally fine.
  17. Rob
    That's not really true, though. There appears to be a degree of bad luck thus far.
  18. Rob
    Busch put up video-game numbers in the minors and was available because he's blocked at the major league level by Freeman and Ohtani. Baty isn't blocked by anybody on the Mets. He's just putting the ball on the ground all the time so he's almost completely unable to access his power. He needs a total swing rework, and as such is a fair bit riskier. Busch's only real risk was if he'd have a defensive home.
  19. Rob
    Yup. There's no excuse for a team that has Swanson, Hoerner, and PCA up the middle to be so mediocre on defense overall.
  20. Rob
    I don't love a Suzuki trade. But if the Cubs think he has to be a DH, we're in a bit of a bind, since Morel has pretty conclusively proven he needs to be a DH next season. And since I'd rather not sell low on Morel when his batted ball data gives reason for hope, it may make sense to have discussions about Suzuki.
  21. Rob
    Yeah, we lost that one handily. I just wanted to make a Hak-Ju Lee joke, since this board thought he was the next coming. We received: Matt Garza (6.5 fWAR) Fernando Perez (0.0) Zac Rosscup (-0.6) Garza was later traded for Mike Olt (-0.6) Neil Ramirez (1.0) Carl Edwards Jr. (2.6) Justin Grimm (1.7) We flipped Carl for Brad Wieck (0.5 fWAR), but nobody else got us anything of note when they departed. At any rate, all that adds up to 10.8 fWAR. Meanwhile, we gave up: Chris Archer (18.7) Sam Fuld (1.8) Hak-Ju Lee (0.0) Brandon Guyer (4.6) Robinson Chirinos (-0.6) Archer was later traded for: Tyler Glasnow (9.8) Austin Meadows (5.8) Shane Baz (0.4) Glasnow and Manuel Margot were traded to the Dodgers for: Ryan Pepiot (1.3) Jonny DeLuca (-0.2) Meadows was traded to the Tigers for: Issac Paredes (9.6) Competitive Balance Round B pick in the 2022 draft (Ryan Cermak) So all in all, we got 10.8 fWAR out of the trade. So far, the Rays have turned what we gave them into 51.2 fWAR. Granted, a good chunk of that comes from them later fleecing the Pirates and Tigers rather than coming directly from us.
  22. Rob
    Yup. I haven't gone to games, purchased merch, or even had a legitimate subscription to Marquee network. The Cubs get nothing from me so long as the Ricketts continue to be some of the grossest owners in sports.
  23. Rob
    Hak-Ju Lee is going to make it to the bigs any day now.
  24. Rob
    It's possible that such a deal might be contingent upon Bellinger agreeing to decline his options. Maybe a negotiated buyout of them.
  25. Rob
    Teams are knocking down Jed's door trying to get whom, exactly? The simple fact of the matter is that the guys we have that might be on the market are, by virtue of either their production or their contracts, fallback options. Nobody in the league is pining for Cody Bellinger or Jameson Taillon at the deadline. Other teams aren't pulling the trigger on Plan C until they know whether Plan A or Plan B might pan out. The only possible exceptions to this are Justin Steele and Nico Hoerner. Steele isn't getting traded unless there's a massive overpay, and that's more likely to happen closer to the deadline. Hoerner is in a similar boat, in that we want him here next year. Of all the valid criticisms about Jed, I don't think the timing of his moves around the trade deadline this year qualifies.
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