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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    Actually, it's been proven that bunting can increase the odds of scoring in some situations. It simply increases the odds of scoring one run for sacrificing the odds of scoring more than that. So if we REALLY need a run, sometimes it is actually beneficial to lay down the bunt... but pretty much only if it advances a runner to third.
  2. Rob
    Those are the average amount of wins for each team running the simulations, but the playoff odds report based off PECOTA states... "Average wins by position in NL Central: 100.5 91.5 85.2 79.3 73.0 64.0" The standings you were looking at are really only used for figuring out which team belongs where.
  3. Rob
    Being the idiot that I am, I went into my draft with little preparation whatsoever. So when I got a pick and saw Francisco Cordero still sitting there after a huge run on closers had just started, I decided I might as well go ahead and pick him up. Since then, I'm having trouble seeing if he's even pitching right now. I'm checking rotoworld, and the last thing it has for him is pitching in a game on the 23rd after having experienced some shoulder problems earlier in the month. I can't find any record of him pitching since then, but I can't find an injury being reported either. If he's healthy I think he's probably a better bet for saves than Eddie Guardado, who is still sitting on the waiver wire... the only problem is that I have no idea whether he's healthy or not.
  4. Rob
    I just heard on XM that Cox is probably going to keep Brian Jordan on the roster over some younger guy that hit over 400 in st (forgot his name). Because he looks at his bench and doesn't see any veterans there. He must have a veteran fetish? Everybody is going to have some level of faith in veterans over kids. Bobby Cox has enough history of putting faith in younger players to excuse him from occasionally going with a guy like Jordan. I wouldn't be all that interested in that kid's spring training numbers, as opposed to his career numbers as a pro. But for what it's worth, Jordan is having a great spring, so if you want to use that as your excuse, it doesn't make much sense. Plus, what is the kid's storyline? Is he a 22 year old solid prospect who can use some more seasoning playing everyday, as opposed to being on the bench. Would being a major league bench player slow his progress? And I don't know many people who have advocated benches with zero veterans, so if most of the guys are younger and Brian is the sole aged one, that's not that big of a deal. And let's not forget, Cox brought back a 42 year old Julio Franco in 2001, and got 5 years of pretty good production from him. So he's got as much of an eye for the older people as the younger ones.
  5. Rob
    Be on the lookout while you're in that airport, I saw John Cleese in there when I left last week.
  6. Rob
    Did you completely forget about the last few years of Jose Macias?
  7. Rob
    I don't think I would take Billy Butler for Pie... Now if they were offering Alex Gordon, that might be another matter entirely.
  8. Rob
    ' I am just curious - why do you think that is? I mean, he has been with several teams (http://www.baseballreference.com/h/harrile01.shtml) so does that mean every GM that signed him is incompetent? Jim Bowden was GM of the Reds from '92 to 2003. So that covers from Lenny's career from '94 through '98...
  9. Rob
    I'm not a huge Novoa fan by any means, but I'd much rather have him up than Koronka. "[expletive]" is about all the soft-tossing lefty I can handle.
  10. Rob
    I don't know, giving Craig Wilson a chance to turn Jacque Jones into trade bait at the deadline would be pretty nice...
  11. Rob
    There's a snow advisory in this county if you're above 2000 feet, but we're just under that. On an interesting sidenote... I believe it had been 143 days since it last rained here... and the second I get here, it gets rained out. God hates me.
  12. Rob
    So I flew in last night for this game, and now instead of watching Guzman, I'm sitting in my hotel room instead. Doh!
  13. Rob
    Isn't anyone above 75% considered to be an effective base stealer? A lot of people see 75% as the break-even line, meaning 3 stolen bases balances out 1 caught stealing. 77% may make it worth it, but it's not exactly good. In 2003, he was stealing bases at a 76% rate. The break-even line in the NL last year was on average 69.9% I don't feel like breaking down Pierre's lines last year, but odds are if he's cleared 75%, he's achieving a net positive for the team. Although how much of a positive that is can be up for debate.
  14. Rob
    There is absolutely zero chance they trade him. They're looking to relocate, and if they don't have any talent at all, they'll have a hard time building up a fanbase in whatever city they head to. Cabrera and Willis will stick around for the foreseeable future.
  15. Rob
    I don't know how much stock you want to put into this, but on Cobbs DT Card at BP, his translated numbers come up with a lot of power. 565 career homers, and a .346/.415/.590 line. Are they suggesting it was harder to hit home runs with 460' power alleys or something? :D Not really, just to the tune of costing him 438 homers for his career. :P
  16. Rob
    I don't know how much stock you want to put into this, but on Cobbs DT Card at BP, his translated numbers come up with a lot of power. 565 career homers, and a .346/.415/.590 line.
  17. Rob
    Don't get me wrong, Clemente is one of my favorites, but he's hard pressed to even make it into the top 5 right fielders of all time. Babe Ruth Hank Aaron (longevity is a useful tool) Frank Robinson Mel Ott Reggie Jackson Tony Gwynn He either falls in right before or after Tony Gwynn, but there's a fairly steep dropoff from that point. And as for the issue of his untimely death, I don't know how much credit you can really give him for the rest of his career. He was going into his age 38 season, and was down to about 120 games per season. But at the same time, he was batting over .300, and maybe he would have been Julio Frano's predecessor. At best, give him 5 more season of solid ball, and he slots in right behind Frank Robinson.
  18. Rob
    Corey Patterson will either show up as a cautionary tale or as an all time great, I can feel it already. Heck, he's already halfway there. :P
  19. Rob
    ARod has already had a frightengly great career. He's only 30, and I'd vote him into the Hall if he retired today.
  20. Rob
    Are we looking at positional scarcity as a factor here? Hitters: 1. Babe Ruth 2. Barry Bonds (sad, but true) 3. Ted Williams 4. Honus Wagner 5. Willie Mays Pitchers: 1. Walter Johnson 2. Lefty Grove 3. Roger Clemens 4. Cy Young (can't really place anybody with 511 wins further down the list, can we?) 5. Pedro Martinez Pedro will steadily move up or down the chart based on his health, but I think 5 is a good baseline.
  21. Rob
    I love my membership. It's some of the best money I've ever spent. I'm not sure if PECOTA is supposed to stand for anything, but it's an interesting tool, to say the least. As Vance mentioned, it's pretty darn good for the hitters. And while you shouldn't take it as gospel for the pitchers, it's a good starting point. Not to mention how insightful the articles can be. Yeah, hand over your paychecks.
  22. Rob
    http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B07220CIN1986.htm Look down to the Reds 10th inning. From that point on Jesse Orosco and Roger McDowell keep switching between the mound and the outfield. Interestingly enough, McDowell was in line to win going into the 14th. At that point Orosco switched back to finish the game out. What would have happened had Orosco gotten in trouble? If McDowell had gone back to the mound, could he have gotten the win and the save?
  23. Rob
    Quite simply, he's not the norm. Most statistical analysis, including PECOTA, uses a system of comparables. In the case of certain players... Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, even Julio Franco... there just haven't been enough players in the major leagues like them to get an accurate idea of how their career path is going to progress... especially once a player gets to an advanced age.
  24. Rob
    Program glitch? Maybe, but maybe not. 2002 - .280/.367/.460 (A) 2003 - .304/.374/.514 (A) 2004 - .297/.386/.647 (AA) - .270/.362/.604 (AAA) - .282/.333/.564 (in Philly) 2005 - .371/.467/.690 (AAA) - .288/.356/.567 (Philly) The kid has some very, very impressive power. And he just turned 26.
  25. Rob
    Mike Piazza has accepted a one-year, $2 million contract with an $8 million mutual option for 2007 from the Padres. "The Padres told Mike that he could pretty much catch as much as he wanted to," agent Dan Lozano said. We wonder if that means there's a slight chance that Doug Mirabelli could be returned to Boston in a David Wells trade. The Padres will probably want to keep Mirabelli to start at least 60-70 games. With Piazza batting cleanup at least half the time, it looks like Mike Cameron will be dropped in the lineup, hurting his fantasy value per rotoworld
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