Rob
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Everything posted by Rob
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I don't know how much stock you want to put into this, but on Cobbs DT Card at BP, his translated numbers come up with a lot of power. 565 career homers, and a .346/.415/.590 line.
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Don't get me wrong, Clemente is one of my favorites, but he's hard pressed to even make it into the top 5 right fielders of all time. Babe Ruth Hank Aaron (longevity is a useful tool) Frank Robinson Mel Ott Reggie Jackson Tony Gwynn He either falls in right before or after Tony Gwynn, but there's a fairly steep dropoff from that point. And as for the issue of his untimely death, I don't know how much credit you can really give him for the rest of his career. He was going into his age 38 season, and was down to about 120 games per season. But at the same time, he was batting over .300, and maybe he would have been Julio Frano's predecessor. At best, give him 5 more season of solid ball, and he slots in right behind Frank Robinson.
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Corey Patterson will either show up as a cautionary tale or as an all time great, I can feel it already. Heck, he's already halfway there. :P
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ARod has already had a frightengly great career. He's only 30, and I'd vote him into the Hall if he retired today.
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Are we looking at positional scarcity as a factor here? Hitters: 1. Babe Ruth 2. Barry Bonds (sad, but true) 3. Ted Williams 4. Honus Wagner 5. Willie Mays Pitchers: 1. Walter Johnson 2. Lefty Grove 3. Roger Clemens 4. Cy Young (can't really place anybody with 511 wins further down the list, can we?) 5. Pedro Martinez Pedro will steadily move up or down the chart based on his health, but I think 5 is a good baseline.
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I love my membership. It's some of the best money I've ever spent. I'm not sure if PECOTA is supposed to stand for anything, but it's an interesting tool, to say the least. As Vance mentioned, it's pretty darn good for the hitters. And while you shouldn't take it as gospel for the pitchers, it's a good starting point. Not to mention how insightful the articles can be. Yeah, hand over your paychecks.
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http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B07220CIN1986.htm Look down to the Reds 10th inning. From that point on Jesse Orosco and Roger McDowell keep switching between the mound and the outfield. Interestingly enough, McDowell was in line to win going into the 14th. At that point Orosco switched back to finish the game out. What would have happened had Orosco gotten in trouble? If McDowell had gone back to the mound, could he have gotten the win and the save?
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Quite simply, he's not the norm. Most statistical analysis, including PECOTA, uses a system of comparables. In the case of certain players... Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, even Julio Franco... there just haven't been enough players in the major leagues like them to get an accurate idea of how their career path is going to progress... especially once a player gets to an advanced age.
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Program glitch? Maybe, but maybe not. 2002 - .280/.367/.460 (A) 2003 - .304/.374/.514 (A) 2004 - .297/.386/.647 (AA) - .270/.362/.604 (AAA) - .282/.333/.564 (in Philly) 2005 - .371/.467/.690 (AAA) - .288/.356/.567 (Philly) The kid has some very, very impressive power. And he just turned 26.
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Mike Piazza has accepted a one-year, $2 million contract with an $8 million mutual option for 2007 from the Padres. "The Padres told Mike that he could pretty much catch as much as he wanted to," agent Dan Lozano said. We wonder if that means there's a slight chance that Doug Mirabelli could be returned to Boston in a David Wells trade. The Padres will probably want to keep Mirabelli to start at least 60-70 games. With Piazza batting cleanup at least half the time, it looks like Mike Cameron will be dropped in the lineup, hurting his fantasy value per rotoworld
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Soooo... Pecota likes Ryan Howard 538 PA .286/.375/.612
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I'm diggin the comparables list for Julio Franco. :lol:
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He had the surgery after the 2004 season, IIRC. And coming back the next season to log nearly 200 innings with an ERA hovering around 4 isn't exactly too shabby. The market value of that is a lot more than the million we're giving Miller. But if that isn't quite enough for you, Chris Carpenter had the same surgery after the 02 season. Then again, he spent the entirety of 2003 recovering before posting stellar years the last 2 times out. -
I like the move but lets not be overly optimistic. guys coming off labrum injuries are generally not very effective. Let's assume that's true, even forgetting guys like Matt Morris for a second. Say Miller doesn't pitch at all this year, he hates the city, and refuses to ever come back. We lost 1 million dollars and maybe got some bad publicity. That's really nothing in the big picture. This isn't a long-term contract that can lock us up in a bad situation for a few years. This isn't an expensive contract which will deter us from making any other moves that could help this club. But if things go well, maybe Miller reverts to his #2 starter form from the early 2000's. Even if for only a handful of starts... it's certainly better than putting Koronka on the mound again.
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For you guys wanting to bet... I'd probably go with PRAA. But hey, that's just me. And on-topic, I absolutely love this signing. It's the first move I can think of offhand that I've been enthusiastic about this entire offseason. Great potential to win big, with not much to lose.
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Why couldn't this have happened years ago when they hadn't fixed their obvious logjam? Oh well, Kearns is probably available now, or will be soon.
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per Rotoworld
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Why Can't We Get Jason Michaels?
Rob replied to Wheelimus's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Hendry's going to take off his belt and beat me until morning? It'd certainly be a welcome tradeoff from the year-long thrashing he typically causes. -
Hollandsworth NRI for Indians
Rob replied to Blueheart05's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
When I posted, I didn't see anybody else had posted it. After it was posted, I saw someone beat me to to. So I put in "Forget this post" type message in my thread. Yeah, same thing happened to me. -
Let's see, this year I got... License to Deal The Book on the Book Scout's Honor and last, but certainly not least... Saving the Pitcher. I think I'm gonna jump in on License to Deal first... by the way, if you haven't read The Hidden Game yet, you better get on it.
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I might be willing to trade Prior for Tejada, Bedard, and Markakis (sp?) ...but only if Markakis turned into Jeremy Hermida.
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For just a one-year contract, Santana. But if I had to worry about finances at all for the years to come, Peavy.
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On the opening day roster, or over the course of a season? If it's the opening day roster, I feel relatively comfortable in the fact that the Giants are going to have the record, if they don't already. But I wouldn't be surprised at all to see another team make some strange PR signings halfway through the season.
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I had to vote yes. He's an extremely borderline case for me. But not only did he win a Cy Young and go to the All Star game 6 times, but it's that damned split finger fastball. You have to give some credit to the guy for being the first truly successful person to use a certain pitch. I honestly think if he would have played past 35 and pitched league-average ball... we would see his saves total as high enough to wave him through without question. Again, it's extremely borderline, but I'd give him my vote.
