Rob

You mean what the Yanks got for Sheffield? Humberto Sanchez is probably worth more than all of those guys put together.

Yeah, but the signing just today become official.

Upside. Perhaps I'm overly optimistic about his abilities and Gerald Perry... but I don't see a chance in hell that Cedeno could be worse than Izturis with the bat this year. Izturis had a fluke season in 2004, hitting better than anything in his track record shows he had the ability to do... and he still couldn't crack a .700 OPS. Nitpick-Izturis had a .711 in 2004. I really need to decrease the resolution on my monitor. All 8's look like 6's to me unless I'm a half inch from the screen. The point still stands, though. Izturis having a fluke season still leaves him swinging less of a bat than my sister.

For 2006? All I've got is PECOTA... but here goes. Soriano: Weighted Mean: .259/.312/.466 90th Percentile: .287/.343/.534 DeRosa: Weighted Mean: .254/.315/.390 90th Percentile: .284/.350/.443 PECOTA really needs to start adjusting for contract years...

Upside. Perhaps I'm overly optimistic about his abilities and Gerald Perry... but I don't see a chance in hell that Cedeno could be worse than Izturis with the bat this year. Izturis had a fluke season in 2004, hitting better than anything in his track record shows he had the ability to do... and he still couldn't crack a .700 OPS. Cedeno has all the tools and skills necessary to sustain an OPS above 700 if he does the requisite work with Perry this offseason. Judging from the way Cedeno altered his game upon coming up to the show, Perry's "aggressive within the zone" approach, work ethic, and disciplinary style seem to fit perfectly with fixing Cedeno. And mind you, Cedeno was thought of as one of the top gloves in our system until last year and Izturis is injury riddled. There's a great chance Cedeno will bounce back defensively as well. The likely defensive difference isn't nearly great enough to warrant a spot on the roster for Izturis, let alone 4+ million and a starting gig.

Rough guesses? Izturis - .265/.300/.345 plus glove but not plus-plus Cedeno - .270/.310/.375 marginally above average glovework Theriot - .280/.340/.390 below average glovework, but not bad I don't see there being a whole lot of difference value-wise between Izturis and Cedeno right now. I still have a hard time believing Cedeno wont improve greatly upon working with Perry coupled with the fact he's got his rookie shakes out of the way. Izturis probably wont have much of a chance of improvement. Theriot probably has the best chance to blow that projection away, but I'm not too optomistic about his glove. That's not as much of a concern with a staff that gets so many strikeouts and flyballs, though. Looking at skills and future projection, Cedeno has the most upside of the bunch. Theriot is an unknown quantity but has the best bat right now. Izturis is nothing but a glove. Irregardless of what the team's plans for the future are, I trade off Izturis in a package with some other guys to try and get Crisp for CF or Westbrook. Depending on what else we do this offseason, I start either Cedeno or Theriot at SS. If we keep upgrading the offense and can hide what could be another year of developing the bat, I make Cedeno the everday guy as I think he can be more useful 2 years from now than Theriot if given the development time. If we still have a struggling offense with a distinct lack of OBP, I start Theriot and take the minor hit on defense. None of this would stop me from signing a reasonable contract for Lugo or making a trade for ARod or Tejada, though.

In case people have forgotten, I feel a need to remind them. 1998 NY Yankees Shane Spencer 67 AB - 10 HR .373/.411/.910 Yeah, Theriot had twice as many at bats as him this season... but in limited time Spencer put up a Slugging % that was nearly as high as Theriot's season total OPS. In the six years that followed, Spencer posted a slugging percentage of more than half that only once... a .460 effort in limited time. Don't get me wrong, I like Theriot... but he's barely outside the range of how many times Spencer came up to the plate, and Spencer was clearly a one-year wonder. All that being said, I'd take Theriot over Izturis at short any day of the week and twice on sundays. Even with a Spencer-esque collapse, Izturis will make him look like Babe Ruth.

We've got three better options than Izturis sitting on the bench everyday anyways... ridiculous. Cedeno is a better option. Theriot is a better option. Alan Trammell is a better option. (it's only going to be his age 47 season)

Yeah, our defense was well above-average last season by most accounts. Irregardless, defense isn't as important to this team as most of the teams in the league because of the way the club places such an extreme importance on strikeouts. Our defense could be comfortably below-average and it wouldn't make too huge of a difference, considering the opportunities the defense gets.

I don't sew why he would be any worse than Jones was in right. Jones may be able to get to the ball quicker, but he cant throw it into the infield to save his life. Manny may not get to the ball as fast but he has a cannon. So its a trade off, in my opinion. Manny has a horrible throwing arm. I disagree. Everyone who plays LF in Boston looks like they have a strong arm. Ramirez is awful when he throws the ball. Not only does he have a poor throwing arm, but he is not even accurate with his throws. His arm looked strong enough when he was playing RF in Cleveland.

Again, all the data I've got right now is 2005 and back, but... 2005: (Name and Total Baserunning Runs) Chone Figgins - 8.29 Jose Reyes - 6.81 Juan Pierre - 6.52 Alfonso Soriano - 5.86 Jason Bay - 5.63 Marcus Giles - 5.49 Johnny Damon - 5.20 Carlos Beltran - 5.07 Rafael Furcal - 4.90 Ichiro Suzuki - 4.61 Remember though, that 4.92 of Soriano's 5.86 total came from EqSBR... a figure that has most certainly dropped from 2005 (30 SB, 2 CS vs 41 SB 17 CS)

Your point that they're relatively similar at the plate in terms of overall rate of production is a point well made, though arguments could probably be made with reasonable conviction that Soriano's maturing as a hitter, and that there's possibly something to be read into his well-stated preference for leading off and the almost too big to be entirely co-incidence career split that his numbers accordingly exhibit (batting first -- .291/.340/.544 in 2227 PA, anywhere else -- .267/.309/.473 in 1991 PA). All the same, there is absolutely no reason to disregard Soriano's athleticism and footspeed with such abandon. They are, in isolation, both assets. Assets reflected in many more things on the baseball field than those encompassed by your crude SB/CS calculation. Even if you limit yourself to looking at just baserunning, even there SB/CS is inadequate, for it doesn't take into account going from first to third on a single, scoring from first on a double, scoring from third on a groundball out or a sacrifice fly, beating out the double play, or any of the other small nuances that there are to baserunning, almost all of them intrinsically linked to two things - the right instincts, and, when it all comes down to it, the tag's been made and the umpire's made his ruling, footspeed. Why limit yourself though to looking merely at baserunning? Altheticism and footspeed have sure impacts upon Soriano's ability to play defence as well. Again, in conjunction with the right instincts, the ability to read the ball off the bat, good reactions, everything else necessary to play the outfield, altheticism and footspeed have their role to play. Soriano's footspeed, all else equal, will enable him to cover more ground, his altheticism will seemingly inevitably see him laying out for spectacular catches that others mightn't attempt, his cannon for an arm will add an out or two here and there on defence, and all these small incidences come with positive run values attached, that, over the course of a full season, are equivalent of an extra few points of EqA or OPS or OPS+ or whatever other catch-all offensive metric you prefer, to the plausible extent that when you're comparing him to a Carlos Lee, statements such as "when they are standing at the plate they are pretty much unrecognizable from each other", when talking about reality, are no longer true. Why limit yourself though to looking at performance just in terms of ratios? Altheticism arguably may have it be the case that Soriano's a whole lot less likely to get injured than a Carlos Lee as they enter their thirties. And it will almost certainly have it be the case that Soriano's a whole lot better a bet to age well and to retain his performance level and keep putting up all those ratios you were talking about before. Just because these things are difficult to quantify, to express in some sort of easy numerical catch-all measure, doesn't mean you should pay them such scant attention. Like you, I'm guessing, absolutely nothing annoys me more than a general manager that ignores years upon years of telling at the plate numbers just because a player "has wheels". It's much more important that a player can hit. But being athletic, able to run and play defence, still has some value, albeit significantly less. So when a player can hit, that he's also athletic is an added bonus. Maybe it's not worth paying up for, but it's not something that can be dismissed with a crude mention of SB/CS. I posted this in the Brad Hawpe thread. I thought it might be pertinent to your argument that Soriano is a good baserunner. That's the truth. I can't find his baserunning totals for 2006, but his 2005 totals are as follows. EqGAR (Ground Advancement Runs) is -0.08 EqAAR (Air Advancement Runs) is -0.07 EqSBR (Stolen Base Runs) is 4.92 EqHAR (Hit Advancement Runs) is 1.10 He's a little below average advancing on outs on the ground or in the air. He was an exceptional basestealer in 2005. And he's worth about an extra run per season when he gets an opportunity to advance on a hit. That was 2005. I don't have the numbers for 2006 handy, but his stolen base rate dropped off significantly (30 SB 2 CS in 2005, 41 SB 17 CS in 2006). That drop brings his SB% to right around the breakeven point. You drop his EqSBR to 0.00, and he's worth approximately one run all season long on the basepaths compared to your league average joe. And that's assuming his sudden loss of a step didn't affect any other aspect of his running game. Obviously, he's probably at stealing bases than he showed in 2006, but for a 30 year old to regain career-year form is something I sincerely doubt will happen. Figure he settles in around 2.50 runs per season for the next few when attempting to steal. Figure he keeps everything else the same. 3-4 runs per season after taking all the times he was successful and all the times he failed into consideration, compared to what you'd expect by looking at the rest of the league. 3-4 runs isn't insignificant, but I always fume a little bit when people try to tell me Soriano is worth a ton on the basepath. He quite simply is not.

Stop being so damn pessimistic.

Jeremy Brown was indeed scouted by the A's. The scouts didn't like him that much, but they sure did scout him. "We're not selling blue jeans here."

Tip o' the hat to the D'Backs. Estrada is greatly overrated and is nothing more than a singles hitter with no speed and a weak glove.

Those statistics aren't very important at all, especially RBI and R which are almost completely worthless. SB has some value, but Soriano gets himself out on the bases so much that he doesn't exactly provide a ton of value with his baserunning. How the hell are RBI and R almost completely worthless? Is VORP, Isod, Ipod, Ihop, PMS better ways to judge a player? :lol: RBI and R aren't completely worthless. They're great ways to look at team production. They aren't very good when trying to isolate individual performances, though. Think about it. If Carlos Lee were the #8 hitter for the Marlins, he probably wouldn't have had 100 RBI. DLee lost the MVP in 2005 because of RBIs... Corey Patterson and Neifi Perez weren't on base to be knocked in very often, so DLee just couldn't hit them in. That doesn't mean he had any less amazing of a season, though. I will grant you, RBI and R can tell you something about a player. Mostly, they just tell you where in the order he batted, but sometimes they can do a bit more. It's readily apparent that Sammy Sosa had a hell of a season when he knocked in 160 guys. But was it better than Hal Trotsky in 1936 when he knocked in 162? Was it better than Ted Williams in 1949 when he knocked in 159? RBI just doesn't do a very good job of isolating the individual from the team, and subsequently can only inform us of very broad things... 100 RBI usually means middle of the order. 100 R usually means the top. Obviously, it tells us something about the health of the player involved. And unusually large or small numbers can tell us it was a very good or very bad season... but not any more. Team dependant stats, such as R and RBI are only telling at the margins... and that is simply not worth much when trying to evaluate a player.

I doubt a NRI contract would get it done... but I'd be willing to go one million for one year... probably not any more. Truth be told, though... if we are talking about 4th OF guys, I'm happy with Cliff Floyd (whom it looks like we are going to sign). And Pagan is fine for a 5th OF. Pagan can cover center and has the ability to be our pinch-runner. If Wilkerson could play a little 3rd, I'd be willing to use him as the CI bench guy a la Russell Branyan. Unfortunately though, that isn't the case... and it doesn't look like he'd be of much use to this team as it is likely to be constructed on opening day.

He's been doing complicated statistical baseball analysis for longer than I've been alive and I could have told you that! Then why didn't you?

This is the quintessential "meh" signing. I'm not scared of the guy. He's slightly above average when he's healthy enough to pitch. The money isn't so bad that it actively hurts the Astros, but it's not so cheap that they're getting a good deal that allows them to spend the money elsewhere. It's a signing, I know this for certain... but I really can't imagine this turning out good or bad for the Astros.

:roll: Most everybody who loves baseball collected baseball cards for a while. They loved the game and baseball cards afforded them the greatest opportunity to get in to the game (as played at the professional level). The people who like to play with stats are the ones that realized they printed stuff on the back of the cards too. At any rate, if you see me in person at Wrigley, you'd know exactly how much a stats guy can enjoy the game.

Does it make me stupid that I played the game for 16 years of my life and don't have a clue as to what the hell y'all are talking about? What the crap is WARP?? Wins Above Replacement Player That is the most pointless stat I've ever seen in my life. Holy cow. It has it's uses... but typically I only use it to compare ballplayers across eras. WARP3 makes all the adjustments for ya, so you can see exactly how much somebody dominated their league. Babe Ruth - 234.2 Barry Bonds - 233.1 Honus Wagner - 194.6 Joe Morgan - 168.0 Ron Santo - 116.7 Ryne Sandberg - 112.9 Mark Grace - 96.5 Joe Carter - 70.3 Using stuff like WARP to plan around when making a team is a bad idea... but it's not a horrible indicator of the past (and it's much easier than looking at long batting lines).

That's the truth. I can't find his baserunning totals for 2006, but his 2005 totals are as follows. EqGAR (Ground Advancement Runs) is -0.08 EqAAR (Air Advancement Runs) is -0.07 EqSBR (Stolen Base Runs) is 4.92 EqHAR (Hit Advancement Runs) is 1.10 He's a little below average advancing on outs on the ground or in the air. He was an exceptional basestealer in 2005. And he's worth about an extra run per season when he gets an opportunity to advance on a hit. That was 2005. I don't have the numbers for 2006 handy, but his stolen base rate dropped off significantly (30 SB 2 CS in 2005, 41 SB 17 CS in 2006). That drop brings his SB% to right around the breakeven point. You drop his EqSBR to 0.00, and he's worth approximately one run all season long on the basepaths compared to your league average joe. And that's assuming his sudden loss of a step didn't affect any other aspect of his running game. Obviously, he's probably at stealing bases than he showed in 2006, but for a 30 year old to regain career-year form is something I sincerely doubt will happen. Figure he settles in around 2.50 runs per season for the next few when attempting to steal. Figure he keeps everything else the same. 3-4 runs per season after taking all the times he was successful and all the times he failed into consideration, compared to what you'd expect by looking at the rest of the league. 3-4 runs isn't insignificant, but I always fume a little bit when people try to tell me Soriano is worth a ton on the basepath. He quite simply is not.

Bill James? The father of modern sabermetrics? I don't really know how to say this, but he's kind of a big deal. I will grant that his projection models aren't as wonderful as systems like PECOTA, but it's still a wonderful sign that his system sees Rich Hill as probably deserving at least some down-ballot Cy Young consideration. If I recall correctly, PECOTA had Hill putting up some outrageous numbers on the high end as well. you're correct. pecota's 'optimistic' projection for hill would make him the best starter in the NL. I'm not sure who you're thinking of, but PECOTA was not too high on Rich Hill. It had Hill pegged as a less than stellar starter in 2006 - a VORP of just over 1. At the 90th percentile he only had a projected VORP of 24. It's ZIPS that has projected good things for Hill in 2007. New PECOTA projections probably won't be out for a few months. I'll be interested to see what it predicts for 07. Cliff's notes: Decline for Soriano Decline for DeRosa Decline for Blanco Decline for Barrett Improvement for Lee Improvement for Prior Improvement for Hill (3/4 of the value he produced at the end of the year over 200 innings.)

I'm praying that's not the case... With the kind of value relievers have in this market, coupled with the fact Eyre has posted good numbers while pitching horribly... Eyre will never have a higher value than he has right now. He could actually help fetch something useful.

what are his politics? how do you even know what his politics are? I don't get it either. I could care less if a guy has diametrically opposed views to me on each & every issue. You deliver a WS to this old Cub fan? You're a saint. He and Kurt Warner were in political ads in St. Louis during the WS opposing the stem cell research proposition that was on the ballot. As a person with a science background, I found the ads offensive because they so blatantly distorted the small amount of truth what they were saying contained. Plus they're idiots for having their viewpoint, but that's just my opinion. But, back on track, Suppan will be too expensive for what he's worth. Even though Weaver's agent is Boras, I think he'll try to sign a short term deal to get his price tag back up and then strike while the iron is hot after Duncan fixes him. No thanks to Mulder, we have enough of those already. Watch it. That's why I said it was just my opinion, which I and everyone else is entitled to. No offense intended, those ads just really pissed me off. I realize you have the right to an opinion. You're just walking the fine line between your opinion and something it is a blanket insult anyways. If I said I thought all democrats were just closet homosexuals, but that's just my opinion (which it isn't)... it'd bring out some bad feelings. I wasn't trying to impinge on your rights to free speech or anything... I was just giving you a head's up that the line was close to being offensive, even if it was just your opinion. I have no hard feelings.