Rob

He's been doing complicated statistical baseball analysis for longer than I've been alive and I could have told you that! Then why didn't you?

This is the quintessential "meh" signing. I'm not scared of the guy. He's slightly above average when he's healthy enough to pitch. The money isn't so bad that it actively hurts the Astros, but it's not so cheap that they're getting a good deal that allows them to spend the money elsewhere. It's a signing, I know this for certain... but I really can't imagine this turning out good or bad for the Astros.

:roll: Most everybody who loves baseball collected baseball cards for a while. They loved the game and baseball cards afforded them the greatest opportunity to get in to the game (as played at the professional level). The people who like to play with stats are the ones that realized they printed stuff on the back of the cards too. At any rate, if you see me in person at Wrigley, you'd know exactly how much a stats guy can enjoy the game.

Does it make me stupid that I played the game for 16 years of my life and don't have a clue as to what the hell y'all are talking about? What the crap is WARP?? Wins Above Replacement Player That is the most pointless stat I've ever seen in my life. Holy cow. It has it's uses... but typically I only use it to compare ballplayers across eras. WARP3 makes all the adjustments for ya, so you can see exactly how much somebody dominated their league. Babe Ruth - 234.2 Barry Bonds - 233.1 Honus Wagner - 194.6 Joe Morgan - 168.0 Ron Santo - 116.7 Ryne Sandberg - 112.9 Mark Grace - 96.5 Joe Carter - 70.3 Using stuff like WARP to plan around when making a team is a bad idea... but it's not a horrible indicator of the past (and it's much easier than looking at long batting lines).

That's the truth. I can't find his baserunning totals for 2006, but his 2005 totals are as follows. EqGAR (Ground Advancement Runs) is -0.08 EqAAR (Air Advancement Runs) is -0.07 EqSBR (Stolen Base Runs) is 4.92 EqHAR (Hit Advancement Runs) is 1.10 He's a little below average advancing on outs on the ground or in the air. He was an exceptional basestealer in 2005. And he's worth about an extra run per season when he gets an opportunity to advance on a hit. That was 2005. I don't have the numbers for 2006 handy, but his stolen base rate dropped off significantly (30 SB 2 CS in 2005, 41 SB 17 CS in 2006). That drop brings his SB% to right around the breakeven point. You drop his EqSBR to 0.00, and he's worth approximately one run all season long on the basepaths compared to your league average joe. And that's assuming his sudden loss of a step didn't affect any other aspect of his running game. Obviously, he's probably at stealing bases than he showed in 2006, but for a 30 year old to regain career-year form is something I sincerely doubt will happen. Figure he settles in around 2.50 runs per season for the next few when attempting to steal. Figure he keeps everything else the same. 3-4 runs per season after taking all the times he was successful and all the times he failed into consideration, compared to what you'd expect by looking at the rest of the league. 3-4 runs isn't insignificant, but I always fume a little bit when people try to tell me Soriano is worth a ton on the basepath. He quite simply is not.

Bill James? The father of modern sabermetrics? I don't really know how to say this, but he's kind of a big deal. I will grant that his projection models aren't as wonderful as systems like PECOTA, but it's still a wonderful sign that his system sees Rich Hill as probably deserving at least some down-ballot Cy Young consideration. If I recall correctly, PECOTA had Hill putting up some outrageous numbers on the high end as well. you're correct. pecota's 'optimistic' projection for hill would make him the best starter in the NL. I'm not sure who you're thinking of, but PECOTA was not too high on Rich Hill. It had Hill pegged as a less than stellar starter in 2006 - a VORP of just over 1. At the 90th percentile he only had a projected VORP of 24. It's ZIPS that has projected good things for Hill in 2007. New PECOTA projections probably won't be out for a few months. I'll be interested to see what it predicts for 07. Cliff's notes: Decline for Soriano Decline for DeRosa Decline for Blanco Decline for Barrett Improvement for Lee Improvement for Prior Improvement for Hill (3/4 of the value he produced at the end of the year over 200 innings.)

I'm praying that's not the case... With the kind of value relievers have in this market, coupled with the fact Eyre has posted good numbers while pitching horribly... Eyre will never have a higher value than he has right now. He could actually help fetch something useful.

what are his politics? how do you even know what his politics are? I don't get it either. I could care less if a guy has diametrically opposed views to me on each & every issue. You deliver a WS to this old Cub fan? You're a saint. He and Kurt Warner were in political ads in St. Louis during the WS opposing the stem cell research proposition that was on the ballot. As a person with a science background, I found the ads offensive because they so blatantly distorted the small amount of truth what they were saying contained. Plus they're idiots for having their viewpoint, but that's just my opinion. But, back on track, Suppan will be too expensive for what he's worth. Even though Weaver's agent is Boras, I think he'll try to sign a short term deal to get his price tag back up and then strike while the iron is hot after Duncan fixes him. No thanks to Mulder, we have enough of those already. Watch it. That's why I said it was just my opinion, which I and everyone else is entitled to. No offense intended, those ads just really pissed me off. I realize you have the right to an opinion. You're just walking the fine line between your opinion and something it is a blanket insult anyways. If I said I thought all democrats were just closet homosexuals, but that's just my opinion (which it isn't)... it'd bring out some bad feelings. I wasn't trying to impinge on your rights to free speech or anything... I was just giving you a head's up that the line was close to being offensive, even if it was just your opinion. I have no hard feelings.

I would have no problems with Floyd on the bench... just so long as he's the 4th outfielder... not a platoon-mate for Murton.

Cedeno would be an upgrade over last year. There's no way he hits that badly again, and I have great faith that Gerald Perry could turn him into at least a league-average hitter... and he has the tools to be above average. Izturis is a waste of 4 mil and a roster spot. I'd almost rather see if MLB would allow us to run 7 defenders out there without taking an automatic out when the SS spot should be batting than to stick him out on the field. That's just a little bit of an overstatement isn't it? :D Seriously though, Izturis has shown he has the tools to become a league average hitter as well. He is not completely hopeless. His swing could lead itself to a large number of line drives, and his numbers were getting closer to league average before he got hurt. If he can stay healthy and works with the new hitting coach, I see just as much optimism that he can go to league average as Cedeno. It's most certainly not an overstatement. I said "I'd almost rather see..." :lol: Everybody has a career year. I really don't think Izturis is even as good of a hitter as he was in 04 and the beginning of 05. I recognize that I could certainly be wrong... but I doubt it. At any rate, Cedeno is going to be doing everything he can to try and hold onto his MLB gig. If that results in him working with Perry a lot, Cedeno's combination of age and work ethic plus natural tools could result in a slightly above league average bat which would be much more sustainable than when Izturis fluked out for his big season.

I haven't seen anything anywhere.

It wasn't a good signing with Looney, Kemp, and Ethier now stuck in left and right field, but it's hard to be much of a bust when it's only a pretty cheap 2 year deal. I always think of a bust as somebody who actively hampers his team's chances for success down the road. Nomar wont be doing that. Pierre certainly will when he loses that one step (if he isn't already). GMJ has a more multi-faceted attack. He's not a good ballplayer by any means... but unless his IsoD and IsoP both drop at the same time as his batting average, his decline wont be nearly as nasty as Pierre's. And there's no doubt both of these guys are going to decline in the next five years. Simply because of the length and money of the Soriano contract, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention it as being the largest possibility of a huge bust. If he hits at Wrigley like he did in Arlington, we are completely buggered. Thankfully, his decline will still leave him much more productive than Matthews and Pierre... but for nearly twice as much money. Whether that leaves him as a bust is a judgement call.

I wouldn't doubt that someone here in the history of the board has said that somewhere. But most likely Baseball7897 needs to look up the definition of hyperbole. I imagine it was something to the effect of... "Compared to what kind of an impact he can make on this offense, his defense doesn't matter." "Defense doesn't matter as much for a left fielder." "This guy has a pretty solid glove on defense. Doesn't matter that he has a hard time on plays in the hole."

what are his politics? how do you even know what his politics are? I don't get it either. I could care less if a guy has diametrically opposed views to me on each & every issue. You deliver a WS to this old Cub fan? You're a saint. He and Kurt Warner were in political ads in St. Louis during the WS opposing the stem cell research proposition that was on the ballot. As a person with a science background, I found the ads offensive because they so blatantly distorted the small amount of truth what they were saying contained. Plus they're idiots for having their viewpoint, but that's just my opinion. But, back on track, Suppan will be too expensive for what he's worth. Even though Weaver's agent is Boras, I think he'll try to sign a short term deal to get his price tag back up and then strike while the iron is hot after Duncan fixes him. No thanks to Mulder, we have enough of those already. Watch it.

Figgins would be a great 25th man. I have no desire to give him a starting job or first man off the bench status, though. And I probably don't have much of a desire to pay whatever it takes in prospects to get him.

I'm not a big fan of Suppan to be honest. I'm not interested in any of the STL FA pitchers. The only one that remotely interests me is Weaver, depending on how the rest of the market looks at him.

I'd rather not spend the money on any of them... but if we can get Lilly for 3/30 or less, I'd be willing to go that long with him.

Defense doesn't matter. :lol: Petition to ban rolleyes because I'm really tempted to use it. No one ever said defense doesn't matter. I wish that were the case. Will this be the thread where you finally use evidence to support your claim? $50 says that any response he gives you leave you wondering whether "evidence" means something different on his planet.

I'd rather have Wolf than Marquis, Meche, or Padilla... only after considering the costs. I'd rather have Bynum than Counsell... but I've been rallying for Freddie Bynum to be non-tendered all offseason. Blanco Theriot Floyd Pagan Moore That's about the bench I'm looking at. I don't see why we'd want either Bynum or Counsell sitting on it.

So we know what we've got now... and we know what Jim Hendry looks for in ballplayers. So how do you envision this turning out? Personally, I see this happening. Sign Schmidt Sign Lugo Sign Floyd Trade Izturis and Marshall (and/or other marginal pitchers) to Boston for Coco Crisp. Trades Jones and Eyre/Ohman for Westbrook If we do that, our team shakes out like this when Lou fills out the lineup card... RF - Soriano SS - Lugo 1B - Lee 3B - Ramirez C - Barrett CF - Crisp LF - Murton 2B - DeRosa C - Blanco MI - Cedeno Util - Theriot OF - Floyd OF - Pagan SP1 - Zambrano SP2 - Schmidt SP3 - Hill SP4 - Westbrook SP5 - Prior/Miller LRP - Guzman MRP - Cotts MRP - Ohman SU - Wuertz SU - Howry CP - Wood That'd give us an above average defense... a lineup with no real holes... a solid bench with a very good 4th outfielder in Floyd (who would bat in front of Barrett when he starts). The bench itself wouldn't be amazing, but it'd be useful enough. The rotation easily has the potential to be the best in the league, and the pen would be extremely solid. And the best part is... I could easily see Hendry doing all of this. These aren't pipe dreams like JD Drew was. With the current market, Crisp might take more to get than Izturis and Marshall, but everything I've heard indicates Izturis would be of genuine interest to the Red Sox, so it might be something more along the lines of Izturis, Marshall, and Wuertz/Ohman... but it could definately get done. And with the relief market the way it is right now, Jones and Eyre for Westbrook makes just about perfect sense. Am I completely off base here? Do you see Hendry doing something different?

Paul Sullivan is a hack. I honestly don't see any way Zambrano would ever be willing to leave the Cubs. His loyalty is part of why he's a Chicago icon. It's possible he leaves, sure... but I feel the sudden urge to knock on wood before I say something stupid. And the Murton thing is definately him just being stupid.

Bill James? The father of modern sabermetrics? I don't really know how to say this, but he's kind of a big deal. I will grant that his projection models aren't as wonderful as systems like PECOTA, but it's still a wonderful sign that his system sees Rich Hill as probably deserving at least some down-ballot Cy Young consideration.

Cedeno would be an upgrade over last year. There's no way he hits that badly again, and I have great faith that Gerald Perry could turn him into at least a league-average hitter... and he has the tools to be above average. Izturis is a waste of 4 mil and a roster spot. I'd almost rather see if MLB would allow us to run 7 defenders out there without taking an automatic out when the SS spot should be batting than to stick him out on the field.

Santana got robbed, not Jeter.

False How so? Roberts is quite a bit better. I would disagree with that. Then please, only if it's just this once, state your reasons why. He ate these magic beans, dude... and he's a gamer. I'm gonna go ahead and end this conversation now. Dave Roberts is a Juan Pierre clone with an extra 30 points of OBP due to extra walks. Juan Pierre stole an extra 9 bases than Roberts, but got thrown out an extra 14 times. Roberts is better in the field (though neither is particularly good). The only positive things Pierre does better than Roberts are strike out less and lay down a bunt... though he doesn't do either significantly better. Personally, I'd rather stay as far away from either of them as possible... but it's rather apparent to me that Roberts has a slight edge in the battle of "who sucks the least?"