Rob

The only players with more upside than Hill are Veal, Pawelek (maybe) and Huseby. Veal hasn't had to deal with the more patient hitters at AA yet, Pawelek is unproven at best, and Huseby is really really far away from what he might become. Hill easily has the best projection based on upside and readiness. They aren't a whole lot of "prospects" with much more stature than Hill right now. He's cheap and has #1 or #2 starter stuff... and major league ready. That's a pretty rare combo.

Really? I was under the impression they had Barret signed through 2008. I could be wrong and just misinterpreting some statements I heard somewhere on the board here. Barret signed a 3 year contract in 05. That makes 07 his last year under the current contract. Hm, there you go. Yeah, stupid facts always having to go and kill conversations... damn facts.

The Book disagrees The Book on The Book? I don't remember that part... I think he means Tangotiger's The Book. I don't know why I keep forgetting about Tangotiger...

The Book disagrees The Book on The Book? I don't remember that part...

Gonzalez isn't an above average defender. I'm confused - this is the Red Sox Alex Gonzalez who should have won the gold glove right? And you don't think he is even above average?? The name and team are right... but that description doesn't fit him at all.

Really? I was under the impression they had Barret signed through 2008. I could be wrong and just misinterpreting some statements I heard somewhere on the board here. Barret signed a 3 year contract in 05. That makes 07 his last year under the current contract.

good. i would much rather have 4 years of drew than 5-6 of soriano. I dont see why everyone thinks we can only have one or the other. With a $115 Million payroll, there is no reason we cant have both. We can, but that would leave us only about 5 million for pitching to try to fill 2 spots. If we got both Soriano and Drew, and added them into the lineup with guys like Ramirez and Lee, we could live with having a rotation of Z, Prior, Miller, Marshall, Marmol/whatever other minor leaguer you want. No, no we couldn't. And Gil Meche is $8 mil better than Marshall, Marmol, Guzman, Gallagher, etc... since when? I'd rather go for broke on the offense if that's where the real difference makers in FA are than spend on marginal pitching "upgrades" just because our pitching is bad.

So is he available for birthday parties or what?

It's not used as a predictor of success as much as it's used to spot fluky seasons. I'm sure this has been mentioned in the thread before now. Rob's the one who brought up future success, not me. Perhaps my wording could have been improved. BABIP aids in spotting flukey seasons... knowing which seasons are indicitatve of a player's true level of skill and which are truly out of line with it aids in predicting future deviations from the most recent season (i.e. successes or failures) Better?

Why would you actually want to know less about a player and his chances of future success? I just don't get it.

Doesn't that make the stat pretty much invalid? Yeah it does. Not really. It has no real value in quantifying how good a player has been... true. However, one can easily use BABIP to help predict future success or failure for subsequent years. It's hardly infallible, but an abnormally high or low BABIP typically means the season was a fluke. If it deviates more than a few points from (LD% + .110) then watch out next season.

So much we don't know, though. Maybe Drew's agent has told Hendry that JD prefers the NL and if Hendry matches any offer from Boston that he'll win in the end. Hard to get too upset until something actually happens. Irregardless of his "preference" for the NL or the midwest or whatever... wouldn't you be willing to throw down an extra million per year to make sure the deal gets done (and in short order)? I know I wouldn't make the best GM in the world if I were willing to cave in to early demands just to get my guys into the fold quickly as possible, but I do believe I'd be able to put out a competitive team year in and year out if I were to do so.... the extra money is worth a guarantee you don't have to scramble to fill that hole later on. What are the other options in CF? Soriano - we're likely to get outbid on... and even if we weren't, there's no guarantee he'd be much more productive than an average CF. Dave Roberts - he's surely not worth the three year deal at five per that he's supposedly commanding. Juan Pierre - Uh huh... 3/30 is about 3 times more than he's worth. Gary Matthews Jr. - Another career-year guy who hasn't proven he's worth much at all... we'd be once again overpaying for mediocrity. Vernon Wells - Jays are gonna probably demand Barrett back in a trade... it's a lateral move at best. Andruw Jones - Yeah... he's a solid option. But what would it take to get him? I guess the whole point behind my philosophy is that when a guy like JD Drew, who fills every hole we could hope for somebody to, is available in free agency... he's worth overpaying slightly for. I realize I can't judge Hendry now, as I don't really have all the info... but if history is any indicator, we're S.O.L. right now... over 3 million over 2-3 years. In the grand scheme of things, it makes no sense to make such maneuvers unless we're already well aware of JD Drew's intentions...

Soriano, Murton, Lee.

Say hello to Gary Matthews Junior on a 4 year deal.

This whole "matching" business is stupid. We're matching the money. We aren't matching with the team already on the field. Given a choice, I'm sure Drew would probably rather play on a winner if the same amount of money is at stake. Throwing in an extra year or another couple mil per is much more likely to bring him into the fold than "matching" their offer.

I know this is a useless exercise... but as far as lineup construction goes, I just looked at who was available as a FA this offseason plus who we've already got. CF - Soriano RF - Drew 1B - Lee LF - Bonds 3B - Ramirez 2B - Durham C - Barrett SS - Lugo P - Zambrano How nice (and extremely expensive!) would that offense have been?

Are you on a quest to have crappy pitching? Marquis and Meche are not good. "Not good" is being far too kind. They're pretty horrid. I can see cases for Westbrook, Lilly, Padilla... but Meche, Marquis, and Batista should be nowhere near a pro ball club (except for the cardinals). The way you guys want to throw money at hitter's, there is going to absolutley no money to spend for pitching. I would hate to see the Cubs go into next year having to out slug their opponents 10-8 every game. That is not the way you build a baseball team. I'd rather throw the money at hitters that can make a real difference than pitchers that aren't a wonderful bet to outperform our young cheap guys. JD Drew is guaranteed to be more productive than Pie in the outfield... Jason Marquis is not anywhere near guaranteed to be more productive than Guzman, Marshall, or Marmol. You can't build a baseball team by throwing tons of money at guys who you can't be sure are even going to help. I'd rather have to outslug our opponents 10-8 every game than have an offense that can only generate 3 runs a game and then ask Marquis to hold on to that lead.

Are you on a quest to have crappy pitching? Marquis and Meche are not good. "Not good" is being far too kind. They're pretty horrid. I can see cases for Westbrook, Lilly, Padilla... but Meche, Marquis, and Batista should be nowhere near a pro ball club (except for the cardinals).

By my calculations, DLee makes about $80,000 per game. Figure about three hours a game... he's making near $450 per minute. Sorry, but you're coming up a little short.

uhhhh...no. Why? Outside of his anomoly of a season last year in a hitters paradise, DeRosa was never really good. I know it was a small sample size, but Theriot was pretty damn good last year when he got a chance. Theriot also showed a great approach at the plate from what I saw, so I don't see him entering a Cedeno-like slump. Fact is that if Theriot was really all that good of a player, would Jim have felt the need to get DeRosa? Probably not. Theriot isn't likely to hit 100+ points above his average minor league slugging again. DeRosa has been pretty good since changing his swing , has done it for a full season, and can play pretty much anywere on the field. He does more for the team then Theriot. Theriot will still get his chances anyway, unless he is horrible in the spring. That's like saying the Phillies wouldn't have grabbed Jim Thome cause they didn't think Ryan Howard would end up being a stud. By all accounts, they knew he would be... they just thought Thome was a decent signing for that time. Only difference is, Thome was worth risking the money on.

Indeed.

Are you kidding me? Jocketty can make the playoffs with a team he bought using the money he found in his couch...

Any time that I get the opportunity to make a snide remark, you can't speak badly of the thread.

better? You suck.

Assuming for a second that what you said actually makes sense, what the hell does it mean? Hendry appears willing and ready to go out and pick up as much trash as possible. The first drop in the bag being DeRosa. Man, are you always this negative? You ready to eat SERIOUS crow if DeRosa puts up good #'s next year? He doesn't have to eat serious crow if DeRosa puts up good numbers next year. He only has to eat crow if DeRosa puts up 13 million dollars worth of numbers over the next three years.