Rob

Of course you'd like to look at it like that, because it's the only way to make your case. But in reality he's bee inconsistent. He's got a fairly high walk rate, his ERA+ has been up and down and he's highly susceptible to the HR. I liked him as a guy who you'd slot at the end of your rotation and hope for 180 mediocre innings. But he's nowhere near a #3 pitcher, and clearly not consistent. We have different interpretations of a number 3 starter. If Lilly is your version of a back of the rotation starter, then you must be describing top 5 pitching staff in baseball, or a definitive playoff calibur team, and not with consideration of the entire league. Lilly's 2006, 3-year splits, and career numbers paint him as slightly above average in most standard pitcher measurements. Being average, or a little above average is what a team should expect from a number 3 starter. As an illustration, how many teams had 3 starters with a better 2006 than Lilly? Detroit, San Diego, Houston, Oakland, and the Angels would probably use Lilly as a 4th starter. And maybe Minnesota (although Radke and Lilly are probably interchangeable as 3s). For the rest of the league (from 2006), he would project as a likely 3rd starter. If you view innings pitched as your measure of reliable, then yes, he hasn't hit 200 IP. If you use Games Started as the measure, Lilly has only missed 9-10 starts in 4 years (depending on how you round the fraction). He's not reliable for 7 innings, but he is consistent for taking his turn in the rotation. Damn straight I am. We should be shooting for that each and every year. And this year, there's enough on the market to make it happen. Schmidt and Westbrook can fit on the team for nearly the same salary as two guys like Lilly and Meche. Schmidt is obviously the best of the bunch, and I'd be inclined to take Westbrook over Meche (certainly) and Lilly (probably). Signing Lilly this early can only tie up enough payroll to keep us from doing smart things.

No thank you. I'd rather hope it's untrue. As if it were true, it would be a huge detriment towards attempting to sign Schmidt. Lilly should be nothing more than a fallback option.

Yeah, he was one of the guys that got caught in Agegate.

Theoretically, there's also no more chance of injury with a 3-man rotation, but very strict (read: low) pitch counts. Actually, I'd be interested in running a three man tandem rotation. Z/Miller Hill/Wood Prior/Marshall Get 3-4 innings from each pitcher. Carry four relievers on the roster... It gives us a lot more people on the bench to mess around with. Plus, we wouldn't be throwing crappy guys like Novoa out there. Then again, it'd all be shot to hell the second one of them goes down with an injury.

That's pretty much the consensus pick from what I'm gathering.

Boston isn't trading Manny unless they sign JD Drew to complement Pena and Crisp. I very much doubt they'd take back Murton and Jones... just cause they don't need outfielders. Marshall has the ceiling of a #4 starter, and Ohman is your standard LOOGY. The Red Sox would never accept that trade. From what I understand, Boston is mostly looking for prospects in return, plus a few arms capable of contributing from the pen. Ohman could probably stay in that deal, but Veal, Gallagher, Pie, Pawelek, and EPatt are all going to be asked for before Murton, Jones, or Marshall.

Washed up, done, AND finished.....dang. Somebody should have warned Carpenter. When he was 26 he had a 6.26 ERA in 175 innings. In 02 it was 5.28 in 73 innings, and he didnt pitch at all in 03. He was was probably just washed up and done though. Well, I would love to be wrong and hope I am. However reality hits home when you read reports of his shoulder being loose and surgery could be an option. One if not his last start was in Milwaukee and he looked like a college pitcher! I hope things change, but I have a feeling he will never regain his 03 form. I always thought having a loose arm is good for a pitcher. Kinda sorta. The loose shoulder helped him generate a good deal of the velocity on his pitches, though it carried with it a risk of injury like this. If they tighten it up, he should lose 2-3 mph off his fastball, but he shouldn't have to worry about the injury again for a good long while. If you tighten up the arm you're increasing your chances of an arm injury. Arm speed is very important for a pitcher. Arm speed is more important than arm strength. The faster you can move your body, the more energy you have to generate a 90mph fastball. I'm talking about the ball and socket joint of the shoulder and the network of tendons and ligaments holding it in place, not the tightness of the biceps, triceps, etc... Pitching is not even a natural movement. You want your shoulder to be loose. Specially the rotator cuff. I don't see how a pitcher can throw a baseball at high speeds without a strong, stretched out rotator cuff. Right. Too tight and you can't get enough velocity at all. Prior's is so loose that I understand he's been having microsubluxations if he throws hard enough. That's his problem.

Washed up, done, AND finished.....dang. Somebody should have warned Carpenter. When he was 26 he had a 6.26 ERA in 175 innings. In 02 it was 5.28 in 73 innings, and he didnt pitch at all in 03. He was was probably just washed up and done though. Well, I would love to be wrong and hope I am. However reality hits home when you read reports of his shoulder being loose and surgery could be an option. One if not his last start was in Milwaukee and he looked like a college pitcher! I hope things change, but I have a feeling he will never regain his 03 form. I always thought having a loose arm is good for a pitcher. Kinda sorta. The loose shoulder helped him generate a good deal of the velocity on his pitches, though it carried with it a risk of injury like this. If they tighten it up, he should lose 2-3 mph off his fastball, but he shouldn't have to worry about the injury again for a good long while. If you tighten up the arm you're increasing your chances of an arm injury. Arm speed is very important for a pitcher. Arm speed is more important than arm strength. The faster you can move your body, the more energy you have to generate a 90mph fastball. I'm talking about the ball and socket joint of the shoulder and the network of tendons and ligaments holding it in place, not the tightness of the biceps, triceps, etc...

Wait, so you're saying it WASN'T a great idea to throw a 4 year, $40M contract at an injury-plagued pitcher who had an above-average ERA+ in just two of his seven major league seasons? I'd have rather thrown that money at Pavano than Meche.

That's only if you believe that even had he worked normal work loads and suffered the same traumas that he would not be in the same position as he is now. I can't make that claim. I'm not implying the traumas had no effect. I was just saying this day situation was coming anyways... though it most likely wouldn't have been the train wreck it has become without the injuries. He's certainly injury prone... but I don't necessarily believe his arm is in the same boat without a lot of contributing factors. . Many things can ruin a pitcher both mentally and physically that are not related to poor mechanics. Indeed. Zach Greinke says "hello."

Just a couple pages back.

I don't wanna sound gay or nothing, but that is one sweet avatar you've got there, dude.

Actually, talk to most athletic trainers or physical therapists and they will tell you that ALL pitchers throw with an unnatural motion. That not withstanding, KW is considered the definition of bad mechanics. and Prior was considered as having "perfect mechanics" by most experts, so what does that tell you? It tells me that he was overworked, took some direct trauma to vital areas for pitching, altered his mechanics to compensate, and hasn't been the same since. The direct traumas certainly didn't help, but he would have had issues even if it weren't for the trauma. The more pitches a pitcher throws, the more he gets fatigued. The more fatigued he gets, the more his mechanics begin to degrade. Even if Prior had perfect mechanics when he started the game, throwing 120 pitches was certainly going to give him bad mechanics for that last bunch. Bad mechanics equals a higher chance of injury. Dusty killed Prior.

I'm afraid the average baseball fan (or even the average baseball writer) doesn't know enough that they would actually be able to put a decent player on the team. Too many people loved Pierre, Neifi, Izturis, Augie, etc...

"The damage... would be relatively minimal?" Pagan was pretty bad for his 200 AB.

I'd go that route if I were the Marlins, since Hughes is likely not going to be traded for someone like Willis (and shouldn't be). Agreed. I'd rather have Hughes than Willis any day of the week.

"I tinktatta"

Washed up, done, AND finished.....dang. Somebody should have warned Carpenter. When he was 26 he had a 6.26 ERA in 175 innings. In 02 it was 5.28 in 73 innings, and he didnt pitch at all in 03. He was was probably just washed up and done though. Well, I would love to be wrong and hope I am. However reality hits home when you read reports of his shoulder being loose and surgery could be an option. One if not his last start was in Milwaukee and he looked like a college pitcher! I hope things change, but I have a feeling he will never regain his 03 form. I always thought having a loose arm is good for a pitcher. Kinda sorta. The loose shoulder helped him generate a good deal of the velocity on his pitches, though it carried with it a risk of injury like this. If they tighten it up, he should lose 2-3 mph off his fastball, but he shouldn't have to worry about the injury again for a good long while.

He will accrue enough service time to qualify for free agency in april 2008, but he wouldn't be able to come to the States on his own terms til the season was over.

Meche wouldn't even be a good option for a swingman... let alone for 3/4 years at 8-9 mil per.

Andruw was the best CF in the game by far. was. Davenport translations have Jones as 3 runs below average for a CF. Wells comes in at -6.

Even with Schmidt, we're probably still a year out. If we re-sign Barrett next season, find somebody to play SS, and get contributions from Pie and guys like Veal, Gallagher, and EPatt... that's when we can really contend. I just don't think we're really in a position to with such a weak up-the-middle group right now in DeRosa, Izturis, and Jacque... and without any good, cheap pitching help.

I've always thought that if Hendry is going to go after that type of hitter, not particularly patient, but potent toolsy guy, he might as well get the really good ones. I don't understand how people think he is on the decline? His splits are very even across the board. He would be great between Lee and Ramirez. It doesn't matter what his contract value might be right now, if Angelos wants him gone he will be gone. Why bat him between Lee and Aramis? I'd bat him #2 unless we can find a really good lefty bat to put in there. Soriano Tejada DLee ARam We'd be looking at a lot of first inning runs.

Young and cheapish. Doesn't strike out much considering the moderate power he has. He's learned to man the hot corner pretty darn well. That said, I don't like him near enough to acquire him. And he's certainly not as valuable as Ramirez.

Palmeiro got the gold glove in 99. He had only played 28 games at first that season.