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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    2 IP, 6 R
  2. Rob
    I think the general idea is that Marmol has helped us win a lot more games due to the way he's been leveraged than Dempster has cost us in the 9th. And since switching the roles would mean shoving Demp in those based juiced, one out situations in the 7th, and pitching Marmol when we're up by 3 in the 9th... Yeah, it's just not a good idea. I know it's painful to watch a game be blown in the 9th. But that's no reason to throw more games away by using Dempster in a situation he can't handle in the 7th.
  3. Rob
    anyone who knows anything considers him the greatest DH of all time That entirely depends on whether you think of Frank Thomas as a 1B or a DH forced to play 1B for a while.
  4. Rob

    Dempster

    Rob replied to ragirag's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    Dempster needs to stay the closer. Cause if he's demoted, there's a pretty good chance we stop bringing in Marmol in the higher leverage situations, and just save him for our three run leads in the ninth. Lou not picking our best reliever to be our closer is the one thing I agree with him on. Marmol is more valuable to use coming in during the 7th with runners on first and second with no outs in a tie game than he is maybe coming in if we have a small lead in the ninth. The closer was a bad idea. Screwing up who you put there can be good. In this case, it is.
  5. Rob
    Rob Deer was kinda underrated. Most people only looked at that .220 career BA.
  6. Rob
    But why mess with a good thing? Yes, ultimately, 200 innings of Marmol is better than 60-70, but is there one other man on this staff you'd trust more in the late innings with men on base in a tie game? No, there isn't. But managing scared isn't the right way to manage. Personally, I prefer managing smart. And if Marmol can handle being a starter while still maintaining a high level of effectiveness, we're much better off with him in the rotation than in the bullpen.
  7. Rob
    I'd like to at least give him a shot at a starting gig. 200 IP from him would be a lot better than 60-70 per season. It remains to be seen how effective he can be the second and third time through the order, but I think some work in spring training on his changeup could make him a valuable addition to the rotation.
  8. Rob
    This is garbage. Trachsel is a bit of an upgrade over Gallagher in the short term, but it's not worth trading both Moore and Cherry for.
  9. Rob

    Bob Uecker

    Rob posted a topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    I was at the game tonight and I'm assuming it was blatantly obvious how many people were booing him during the seventh inning stretch tonight. I personally didn't participate in it, but I wasn't about to cheer him when we're fighting with the Brewers either (despite my love of his role in the Major League series). I was just wondering what you guys thought about the booing tonight. Justified? Classless? What? P.S. - Not sure if it was shown tonight, but everybody in the stands sang Take Me Out to the Ballgame tonight after Mr. Uecker had finished his set. That on it's own was pretty cool.
  10. Rob
    To a degree, it does.
  11. Rob
    Which makes it the right call. Lou trusted his best contact hitter to simply make contact anywhere on the field.....and he didn't. He trusted one of his better judges of the strikezone to not strikeout...and he did. But we're still not factoring in the odds that he hits a liner or a soft flyball that turns into two or even three outs... which squarely place the move back in "wrong" category.
  12. Rob
    wow, you couldn't be more wrong. if kendall had hit seven infield groundballs on the season, you'd be right. as it is, however, you're very, very wrong with your math. Perhaps you're right, I wasn't paying attention to what he does with runners on (a requisite for a DP). Kendall strikes out in approximately 9.3% of his at bats. With runners on base, Kendall had seven GIDP in 150 AB... or about 4.6% of his at bats. Ok... so he was only TWICE as likely to strikeout as ground into a double play. Still not exactly a fantastic ratio for Lou.
  13. Rob
    In the selected games, Orioles W-L: 0-1 White Sox W-L: 0-4 Gonna have to go with the White Sox getting the worst of it.
  14. Rob
    And you would then get a ticker-tape parade in your honor. :D Let's hope the District Attorney is a poster here...
  15. Rob
    Run expectancy with runners on 1st and 2nd, no out: 1.5065 Run expectancy with runners on 2nd and 3rd, one out: 1.44753 Yeah, a successful bunt would decrease run expectancy by a bit, but not by a whole lot. I didn't like the bunt call, and wouldn't have made it myself... but it's at least defendable. The steal, though... it was a horrid call. Kendall has a whopping total of 7 GIDP on the season (zero since he became a Cub) compared to 37 strikeouts on the season (10 since he became a Cub). If Lou (or anybody else here for that matter) was truly more concerned about him hitting into a DP than striking out, then a head check needs to be done. Kendall was more than FIVE TIMES more likely to strikeout than to GIDP. Calling the steal wasn't "what needed to be done." It wasn't "rolling the dice." It was ugly, stupid, and misguided... and no amount of wishcasting is going to make it otherwise. Lou screwed up. Badly.
  16. Rob
    Lou most likely lost us this game.
  17. Rob
    He has more value to this team than another fungible middle reliever with a hefty payroll cost does. I don't want Jim to try to get anything for him... I'd rather we just hold onto him and get some production.
  18. Rob
    I can see Jimbo doing something really stupid like trading Murton for a Dannys Baez type... at which point I will be forced to lynch him.
  19. Rob
    Actually, he was comparing the standard playoff odds report with the PECOTA version. Typically, the PECOTA one works by virtue of a weighted mean between real records and the PECOTA predicted record. All he was saying was that, this late into the season, the actual record dominates most of that number.
  20. Rob
    There was an interesting article at the Hardball Times a few days ago regarding the difference between teams and their runs scored and runs allowed. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/no-mirage-in-arizona/ Essentially, a bad fifth starter makes it easier to outperform a pythagorean record, while a good one makes it much harder.
  21. Rob
    Gregg Jefferies had an OBP of .408 and .391 in the two seasons he was with the Cards.
  22. Rob
    I think the Cub girl is hotter... but does she drink a beer as big as her head?
  23. Rob
    Properly = Very Sparingly
  24. Rob
    Joe Morgan: .392 OBP (.326 lgOBP) / .427 SLG (.384 lgSLG) Ryne Sandberg: .344 OBP (.337 lgOBP) / .452 SLG (.404 lgSLG) Just to make the math easier to eyeball... let's normalize those numbers by dividing the individual stats by the league stats and then multiply by 100, to get a real grasp of how far above and beyond they went... we'll call these OBP+ and SLG+ (even though we aren't bothering with park factors or anything, it should be close enough to an OPS+ format to make my point) Joe Morgan: 120 OBP+ , 112 SLG+ Ryne Sandberg: 102 OBP+ , 112 SLG+ Sandberg really didn't slug any better than Morgan did... but Morgan sure did get on base better.
  25. Rob
    Ok... let's at least get this straight. Joe Morgan was a better hitter than Sandberg (.392 career OBP vs .344) I love Ryno as much as anybody, but it's time we admit Morgan was better on offense. Defensively, however, it's not even a battle. Ryno ranks up there as one of the top defenders of all time at that position. Depending on which metric you use, Morgan rates as average to below average. I have a hard time believing any of those gold gloves were justified more than Raffy's was.
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