Rob

Dempster's actually faced tougher batters (by .004 points of OPS)

Actually, I will conceed that if it hurts one of the opposing players with great range and forces him out of the game, the double would possibly be better than the dinger... It'd have to be the sort of injury that forces Daryle Ward to play center or something though.

There's no way Marmol shouldn't be starting next year.

Hell, I'd say Marmol has been more valuable than Theriot and he's only a reliever who wasn't even in the bigs in April. Marmol has a WARP3 of 4.3, while Theriot has a 3.7... and that doesn't even account for Marmol's much higher leverage. WARP for pitchers is leverage adjusted. Well sorta. It's a [expletive] way but it is. BP really has a disaster on their hands with WARP for pitchers. Its too bad theyre too dumb to know it oh and in addition, Marmol's leverage isnt all that high for a reliever. It really isnt. Thats Lous fault more than anything. I just looked it up. 53rd in the NL. Seems like it should be a lot higher.

Yeah, but if we had held onto Maddux, we could have offered him arbitration. Worst case scenario, we sign him for a bit too much money. Best case, he declines and we get compensation picks that were worth more than Izturis. We weren't in a situation where we really had to get rid of Maddux for any return we could get. This was a case where holding onto him was better than the return we got. I think once the BIS numbers come out (which plot exactly where the ball was hit, how hard, what vector, etc... and compare his range to the other SS) it will vindicate my belief that he makes more easy plays than most, but very few outside the normal range. Unfortunately, those numbers wont come out until after the season, so I must delay gratification until then. Though again, I must disagree with the clubhouse chemistry argument. Winning breeds chemistry on a team, not the other way around. For proof of this, you have to look no further than the Cardinals this year. These were supposedly all clubhouse guys with great attitudes when they won the world series, but all I've been hearing all season is about how miserable that locker room has been. Being a "proven winner" doesn't do much when you aren't winning. ARod increases the Cubs likelyhood of reaching the playoffs (and getting far enough into it), that we'd get the ticket income from a potential extra 19 games at 100% capacity. Plus the merchandising that comes with national media coverage. I know it's counterintuitive, but I've got about three different books with studies on the matter. It's pretty incontrovertible. Well, of course you're gonna try to go opposite field if the pitcher is going outside on you. I'd still rather attempt to hit a drive down the line or in the gap, but I'm not about to complain if the end result is a weak grounder that moves the runner up. The problem is only when a player's sole aim that at bat is to hit a weak grounder to 2B, and it's early enough in a game that you shouldn't be playing for one run. Earl Weaver had a rule that "if you play for one run, that's all you're going to get." And that still holds mostly true. If we're facing an offense like the Reds', who can explode for 10-12 runs, we shouldn't be trying to get just a single run early in the game. I wont complain about a run, but the approach isn't ideal unless certain conditions are met. First round is on me if you find yourself in the Chicago area.

Given the state of the pitching market this offseason, I think he's gonna end up with a Lilly-esque contract.

Hell, I'd say Marmol has been more valuable than Theriot and he's only a reliever who wasn't even in the bigs in April. Marmol has a WARP3 of 4.3, while Theriot has a 3.7... and that doesn't even account for Marmol's much higher leverage.

Before I even start on this post, I should probably mention that I'm not intending to "pile on" with the rest of the people mocking you for pulling "the card." I do respect that you have a much more keen insight on the actual personalities of the players than those of us who are just watching the games. This is not meant to come off as condescending, I'm just trying to start an earnest discussion. I don't think anybody here is about to start debating that scouts have a wealth of information available to them that the rest of us don't. I think the trick is just in realizing exactly how much extra credence we should give their opinions. If Gary Hughes thinks taking a flier out on Jason Kendall is a good idea, sometimes that'll work out. But if he tried to convince us to resign him to a three year deal at five mil a year, he'd be past the limit of his credibility. This is just one where the number crunchers had a better grasp on the game than the scouts. Again, the trick is in acquiring all the information possible, which allows somebody to make the best decision possible. Stats and scouts. This one kinda hinges on the definition of "solid." As far as the numbers are concerned, they really do tell the whole story as far as offensive output for players goes. Theriot is well below average with the bat, even for a shortstop. No amount of situational hitting is going to be enough to change that. Defensively, the numbers wont be out until after the season (and are less reliable anyways), but Theriot obviously is severely lacking in range and his arm strength is mediocre at best. He is an excellent baserunner, however. All in all, the total package rates as below average. He's not hurting us all that much (and we don't have any better options anyways), but he's not helping either. Is that "solid" or not? As far as the fact he's played on a lot of championship teams, shouldn't the team get credit for that, not the player? The other guys on the teams he was on were certainly having a lot more to do with their success than he did. The general talent level of this team puts us in the position where each marginal win gains us quite a bit of money (in terms of likely postseason revenues, as well as merchandising and other forms of income). Signing a guy like ARod in the offseason would essentially cost us a lot less than it would if the Royals signed him for the exact same amount of money, since he would bring in much more for us. And seeing as how SS is the only position this offseason where there will be readily available (and very large) upgrades, I see no reason not to peg Theriot as the guy that should be on the way to the bench. It's nothing personal, as he seems like a very affable fellow, but business-wise, it's the right decision to make assuming the cost is right. That's what we call circular reasoning. They do it, so it must be important. And it's important, cause, otherwise, why would they do it? It's a logical fallacy. The fact of the matter is that, while it can certainly come in handy to have advanced the runner to third, it's not really essential in the truest sense of the word. If Theriot were a better hitter, he could be trying to pull the ball and hit it in the gap or over the wall. Hitting a groundout to the right side decreases overall run expectancy for the inning, while only giving a slight bump to the odds of scoring a single run in the inning. The only time it can be considered remotely essential is in the late innings of a one-run game, where the decrease in run expectancy is covered for by the increase of win expectancy. And I do thank you for being willing to share your experiences here on the board. It'd be nice if we were on the same page tactically, but it's hardly essential to a rational discourse. I hope to work in the business someday myself, and the ability to pick your brain is greatly appreciated.

With all due respect, I would appreciate it if you responded to my well thought out post on page five, rather than simply going after the people who acted childish.

Meph, why would we trade that much value when Renteria could probably be had for much less? The other options out there are just too good to justify spending our resources in this wya.

He, "on purpose", grounded out, bringing our run expectancy from 1.17 down to .98, and you want to reward him for ten years for doing that sort of thing on a regular basis? Sorry man, but that's just ridiculous.

From BP: Jerry Blevins, LHP, Triple-A Sacramento (Athletics) Blevins began the year as a little-known reliever who began the year with the Cubs’ High-A Florida State League affiliate, but he’s finishing it in the majors. He was arguably the best reliever in the postseason at any minor league level, finishing up with 20 strikeouts in nine shutout innings, while giving up only four hits. A 17th-round pick in 2004 out of the University of Dayton, Blevins was converted to a sidearm delivery by the Cubs last year, but ‘unconverted’ this year and absolutely took off. Including his postseason run, he recorded 122 strikeouts against just 20 walks in 86 1/3 innings across four levels, and he pitched a perfect inning in his big league debut over the weekend. This is quite likely not a temporary assignment, and Blevins will play an integral role in the Athletics bullpen next year.

94 Damn.

The post was referring to his range, not his arm. Though I don't really agree with Murton rating as below average range wise. He makes a good deal of errors, and sometimes takes bad routes on balls that are already hits (that results in a decent number of extra bases), but in terms of pure range in getting to flyballs, he's at least average. What he does after he gets to them is the only problem.

Actually, it is right now. The only real holes have been C, CF, RF, and SS this season. Kendall and Soto are doing fine at C, Jacque's been pretty good in center since the break, and Murton and Floyd are on fire in RF. And Theriot is playing like he belongs in AA at the moment.

First off, no, I never said I'd rather have Cedeno play. I didn't even say Cedeno was better defensively. I was just using him to make the point that Theriot doesn't have much range, and that is a fact. Theriot does an excellent job at the balls hit right at him, but so does almost every other shortstop in the league, and they all make a lot more plays outside the normal range than Theriot does. He's solid, but he's nowhere near above average. And why on earth would you subtract September from his season to make a point? I could cherry pick and get rid of his July to do the same thing. Without his July, he gets much worse than he gets better subtracting his September. If any month is the anomaly that would deserve to get cut, it would be July.

Big difference between SS and RF. Theriot's SS or 2B production is acceptable in a lineup that has big production elsewhere, and has some compensation production at another non-traditional offensive spot. Burnitz's hustle in RF didn't mask his production shortage. Why do people keep responding to my original point like Theriot has matched Burnitz's offensive output or projects to even come close to matching Burnitz's offensive output? Ryan has had his bright spots, but his career up until this point and his age is likely indicative of his offense being well below his high points. I can live with him as a backup utility guy, but to want him hitting any higher than 7th or 8th or on a regular basis simply because he's cheap and has been decent for short periods in a very small sample size strikes me as not being good for the team at all in the long run. And no, I'm not trying to argue that Burnitz was the right RFer for this team, but I think straight up comparing his output with the bat to Theriot's definitely weighs in Burnitz's favor. Go root for the Yankees Are you seriously equating pointing out the shortcomings of a mediocre player to Yankees fans who demand an all star at every position, or are you poking fun that those who use this ridiculous tactic to brush off comments by those who are interested in seeing the Cubs get better? Kinda both, I think every lineup needs to have a singles hitter that can get on base (with the exception of September) and play good defense. The Angels are built around them, the Red Sox have Ellsbury and Lugo. The D'Backs have Hudson, the Phillies have Rollins (yes, he is better than Theriot, but the point stands), the Mets have Castillo (I am not going to compare Reyes to Theriot). The Cardinals have Eckstein. Do I need to go on? I realize going to root for the yankees is an extreme. Theriot has a .330 OBP, compared to the league average of .347. And again, Theriot really isn't a good defensive player.

1) Theriot is NOT above average defensively. He is certainly quite surehanded, and accurate with his throws. However, his range is abysmal and his arm strength is nothing to write home about. He's diving and missing at balls that Cedeno is getting to standing upright. Theriot is quite good at balls hit right at him, but he's not making any plays that the average shortstop wouldn't. At best, you can make a case for him being solid... but he's certainly a tick on the short side of average. 2) If you have to look that closely to find any semblance of value in a player, the odds are pretty good that you're reading too far into it. 3) Let's suppose for a moment that you are right and that Theriot has some sort of intangible value to the rest of the team. How much do you really think he adds? 4) We should always be looking to upgrade everywhere. If we can get Chase Utley at 2B for a reasonable cost, I would hate to have us pass up on it because Mark DeRosa has done a pretty darn good job there. If we could trade DLee for Pujols, or Aramis for Miguel Cabrera, we'd be stupid not to. Upgrading constantly is the sign of a good team and good management, not something to be abhorred. Don't get me wrong. I'm fine running with Theriot for a while, and his production is certainly decent enough for the paycheck he's collecting. But his value is more in line with the first infielder off the bench on a good team. And when he starts getting arbitration-eligible and in line for a 4 million dollar payday, he's past the point where his play would justify his salary.

I mostly agree with this. The only thing that makes me wonder is that it seems pretty obvious to me that Blanco is going to retire after the year. If Blanco retires, Kendall will likely be signed back, and then it will probably be an open competition in ST next year. Do you think so? Clearly he should, and there does seem to be some signs that he will. I'm just not sure I see any reason for him to throwaway that money though. Guys usually wait until they no longer have any guaranteed money coming to them before they retire. And while I could see the Cubs and Henry agreeing to some sort of buyout, I could just as easily see Blanco stick around to keep drawing the check. He'd likely stick around on the 60 day DL, though.

I'd like to know who the opposing offense is too. Are they heavy on righties? Lefties? Do they walk a bunch? Hit a ton of home runs? Play small ball? Facing the Yankees with the wind blowing in? Hill. Wind blowing out? Z. Facing the Red Sox with the wind blowing in? Lilly.

Semantics aside, you most certainly did call people dumb in this thread. If you see an axe swinging, it probably won't be aimed at others in this thread. What if I fly completely off the handle? I think I could probably do something worth banning me for.

We've got a lead in the division and what should(Key word)be a cake-walk schedule the rest of the way. Oh yeah, and it's mid september. I think it's about time that we can start talking about this stuff. with a one game lead and a week of games against teams we haven't been able to beat much? Regardless; it's september 17 and we're in first place, it's time to think playoffs. I am thinking about playoffs. I'm thinking about how one slip and a Crew sweep of a series would be all it might take to flip it in their favor. Seems like it's pretty much up for grabs still. But hey -- I don't want to tell anyone what to discuss. I'm just commenting that it still seems a bit presumptuous. It'd be presumptuous to be skipping starts to begin putting our postseason rotation the way we want it. Talking about who might make the roster seems pretty reasonable though.

You really think so? I'm not sure Hendry is thinking the same thing, and I know Kendall said he'd be very interested in returning.

I wonder what they were at last monday. They were at 8.75646% chance. They had peaked at a 21.50100% chance on Sep. 5th when they had climbed up to a 68-67 record.

Cards are down to a .04609 chance to make the playoffs, according to the BP playoff odds report. They were at 3.something percent when I left to go to St. Louis on Friday afternoon.