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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob

    Bob Uecker

    Rob posted a topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    I was at the game tonight and I'm assuming it was blatantly obvious how many people were booing him during the seventh inning stretch tonight. I personally didn't participate in it, but I wasn't about to cheer him when we're fighting with the Brewers either (despite my love of his role in the Major League series). I was just wondering what you guys thought about the booing tonight. Justified? Classless? What? P.S. - Not sure if it was shown tonight, but everybody in the stands sang Take Me Out to the Ballgame tonight after Mr. Uecker had finished his set. That on it's own was pretty cool.
  2. Rob
    To a degree, it does.
  3. Rob
    Which makes it the right call. Lou trusted his best contact hitter to simply make contact anywhere on the field.....and he didn't. He trusted one of his better judges of the strikezone to not strikeout...and he did. But we're still not factoring in the odds that he hits a liner or a soft flyball that turns into two or even three outs... which squarely place the move back in "wrong" category.
  4. Rob
    wow, you couldn't be more wrong. if kendall had hit seven infield groundballs on the season, you'd be right. as it is, however, you're very, very wrong with your math. Perhaps you're right, I wasn't paying attention to what he does with runners on (a requisite for a DP). Kendall strikes out in approximately 9.3% of his at bats. With runners on base, Kendall had seven GIDP in 150 AB... or about 4.6% of his at bats. Ok... so he was only TWICE as likely to strikeout as ground into a double play. Still not exactly a fantastic ratio for Lou.
  5. Rob
    In the selected games, Orioles W-L: 0-1 White Sox W-L: 0-4 Gonna have to go with the White Sox getting the worst of it.
  6. Rob
    And you would then get a ticker-tape parade in your honor. :D Let's hope the District Attorney is a poster here...
  7. Rob
    Run expectancy with runners on 1st and 2nd, no out: 1.5065 Run expectancy with runners on 2nd and 3rd, one out: 1.44753 Yeah, a successful bunt would decrease run expectancy by a bit, but not by a whole lot. I didn't like the bunt call, and wouldn't have made it myself... but it's at least defendable. The steal, though... it was a horrid call. Kendall has a whopping total of 7 GIDP on the season (zero since he became a Cub) compared to 37 strikeouts on the season (10 since he became a Cub). If Lou (or anybody else here for that matter) was truly more concerned about him hitting into a DP than striking out, then a head check needs to be done. Kendall was more than FIVE TIMES more likely to strikeout than to GIDP. Calling the steal wasn't "what needed to be done." It wasn't "rolling the dice." It was ugly, stupid, and misguided... and no amount of wishcasting is going to make it otherwise. Lou screwed up. Badly.
  8. Rob
    Lou most likely lost us this game.
  9. Rob
    He has more value to this team than another fungible middle reliever with a hefty payroll cost does. I don't want Jim to try to get anything for him... I'd rather we just hold onto him and get some production.
  10. Rob
    I can see Jimbo doing something really stupid like trading Murton for a Dannys Baez type... at which point I will be forced to lynch him.
  11. Rob
    Actually, he was comparing the standard playoff odds report with the PECOTA version. Typically, the PECOTA one works by virtue of a weighted mean between real records and the PECOTA predicted record. All he was saying was that, this late into the season, the actual record dominates most of that number.
  12. Rob
    There was an interesting article at the Hardball Times a few days ago regarding the difference between teams and their runs scored and runs allowed. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/no-mirage-in-arizona/ Essentially, a bad fifth starter makes it easier to outperform a pythagorean record, while a good one makes it much harder.
  13. Rob
    Gregg Jefferies had an OBP of .408 and .391 in the two seasons he was with the Cards.
  14. Rob
    I think the Cub girl is hotter... but does she drink a beer as big as her head?
  15. Rob
    Properly = Very Sparingly
  16. Rob
    Joe Morgan: .392 OBP (.326 lgOBP) / .427 SLG (.384 lgSLG) Ryne Sandberg: .344 OBP (.337 lgOBP) / .452 SLG (.404 lgSLG) Just to make the math easier to eyeball... let's normalize those numbers by dividing the individual stats by the league stats and then multiply by 100, to get a real grasp of how far above and beyond they went... we'll call these OBP+ and SLG+ (even though we aren't bothering with park factors or anything, it should be close enough to an OPS+ format to make my point) Joe Morgan: 120 OBP+ , 112 SLG+ Ryne Sandberg: 102 OBP+ , 112 SLG+ Sandberg really didn't slug any better than Morgan did... but Morgan sure did get on base better.
  17. Rob
    Ok... let's at least get this straight. Joe Morgan was a better hitter than Sandberg (.392 career OBP vs .344) I love Ryno as much as anybody, but it's time we admit Morgan was better on offense. Defensively, however, it's not even a battle. Ryno ranks up there as one of the top defenders of all time at that position. Depending on which metric you use, Morgan rates as average to below average. I have a hard time believing any of those gold gloves were justified more than Raffy's was.
  18. Rob
    The Phillies did a pretty good job of dealing with having both Jim Thome and Ryan Howard. I'd rather have the option to deal from strength later than hope and pray the worse hitter we drafted develops into a starter at another position we haven't already filled.
  19. Rob
    Lee, Aramis, and Z are all top players for the next couple of years... though they are getting darn close to their decline phases. Soriano, Lilly, Hill, Marshall, Marmol, Gallagher, Wuertz, Pie, Murton, and Soto all have strong chances to be above-average contributors at their positions. Theriot, Fontenot, DeRosa, Moore, and Fox all have a good chance to be fairly valuable if used properly. (Still not sold on Theriot and DeRosa as hitters... at least not #1, 2, or 5 hitters) Only Marquis and perhaps Cedeno are likely to have fairly significant roles while being a drain on the pitching or offense. The trick is going to be in trusting the young guys... instead of paying for overpriced junk to fill in. (I could see us re-upping Floyd, and signing LoDuca).
  20. Rob
    Ummm... Look at the total they have listed above the teams for that season? Team name is called "TOT"
  21. Rob
    There's no harm in calling him up in case a game goes 30 innings, or we need a pinch runner. You just have to trust Lou to use him right... and... uh... well, nevermind then.
  22. Rob
    Soriano wont be the face of the franchise until he's officially become an albatross, and everybody needs something to point to as a sign of the Cubs' futility.
  23. Rob
    Jones: "Hey, we won, I'm happy." Murton: "Me too." Murton: "This guy from the interweb is stalking me." Jones: "That sucks." Murton: "You can do it, put your *** into it." Jones: "Ya know, this is why that guy gets those ideas..."
  24. Rob
    No he didn't. If Lee was traded to Baltimore then Florida wouldn't have been able to trade him to the Cubs. He was essentially traded to Baltimore, who balked at the last minute. Florida then called up Hendry hoping to dump DLee and his salary and Hendry capitalized on their impatience.
  25. Rob
    If memory serves, the Cubs (and by extension, Jim Hendry) were dead last in the majors last year as far as what they spent per marginal win. If Hendry had inherited a bunch of horrible old contracts and a bad farm system, and was still fairly new to the Cubs GM position, it would be understandable. He didn't, and it isn't. Just like any other GM, he has strengths and weaknesses. He does seem fairly good at convincing players he wants to sign contracts with us (and for hometown discounts). He's also capable of making fairly good trades. However, he completely lacks an understanding of the values that make the game tick... preferring instead to rely on the conventional "wisdom" of things like the importance of a speedy leadoff hitter, and having high batting averages. As is, Hendry's skills are not enough to outweigh his deficiencies. I do applaud the signing of Z to an extension, but it is not nearly enough to redeem him.
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