Yeah, he's got the harder fastball, but his control issues have hurt him. They improved a bit last season, so perhaps there's something to the fact that he was a starter and is now going full on bullpen that is working for him, but I feel safer going with youth, health and performance over what Mateo currently is bringing to the table. I honestly can't say I know much about Kyle's stuff and how it compares to Marcos's. All I have are their stats, so that's what I'm going on. As far as previous seasons, Mateo was a 21 and 22 year old in Rookie ball in the Reds organization who finally made A- by the age of 23 and pitched pretty well. Smit was an 18 year old drafted in the 5th round out of high school, did well in Rookie ball as a 19 year old (2.82 ERA, more Ks than IP, 3-to-1 K/BB ratio, good WHIP) and was promoted to A- later that year. He struggled to succeed being young for the MWL, but appears to have put it all together last year as a 22 year old in A+/AA. It just seems like the Cubs are likely to get more productive years out Smit than Mateo at this point. And Mateo's never had a season like Smit did this year. As a 25 year old last year at AA he put up a 4.07 ERA, a WHIP of 1.44, striking out just 70 while walking 43 in 97.1 innings. Smit easily beat that at the same level while being 2 1/2 years younger. The Cubs may have something in Kyle Smit. It would sting more if he got taken. Mateo may be closer to contributing at the major league level and have more overpowering stuff, but Dominican live arms with control issues who are way too old for their level aren't as rare as 5th round high schoolers who make good and put up a year like Smit did this year (10-4, 2.25, 1.64 GO/AO, 63 K/14 BB in 72 IP). Where did the Smit vs. Mateo question come from? Mateo's safe, IMO. Atkins, Berg, Gaub, Parker, Schlitter, and Stevens are all at greater risk than Mateo. Schlitter is awful. I was a big Berg supporter because of his Webbesque sinker, but he's just not a viable major league pitcher - poor command and a low K rate.