No doubt there's an element of risk, but you're overstating it with that comparison. Career numbers in Japan, 10 season sample for each: .305/.397/.543 Fukudome .277/.333/.387 Taguchi Everything I've heard is a lesser version of Hideki, perhaps with better defense. At least, that's what I'm picturing. Hideki came over on a 3/21, then signed a 4/52, which is an even $13m per year. Would it surprise anybody if Fukudome signed 3/39 right off the bat? Yeah, it's the extra power that makes Hideki the better hitter. Fukudome is a much better defensive player. A lot closer to Ichiro than Hideki in terms of defense. Two years ago, I would've been shocked to see a player straight from Japan sign for that kind of money. In this market, no, I wouldn't be surprised.