nilodnayr

Thanks, I was thinking the same, although I think Heilman's chances of getting traded are better, Liriano has a better chance to break into the Twins rotation than Heilman in the Mets. I am just pissed that I picked up too much starting pitching in the draft, although I love all my starters: Sheets Harden Patterson Lackey Escobar Young Liriano Heilman Unfortunately, I dont think anyone in my league knows how good some of these guys are going to be so I can't trade any of them.

Isn't there a new book that contradicts that notion? I believe its called "The Book" but i'm drawing a blank. I remember the gist of it is, your best batters should be placed first, second, and fourth, then next best batters third and fifth.

I cant imagine them being obstructed in the true sense of the word. The old family and group sections werent obstructed. They may just have to say obstructed because you cant see the warning track in whatever side you are sitting in or somethig. Im going to the bud light bleachers today and will come back and report.

And here all along I thought he was only starting because of his outstanding ability to hit into double plays. Neifi Perez= extremely poor on base percentage, poor plate discipline, ground ball hitter to the extreme, little to no power. These are NOT the type of characteristics you want hitting 2nd in your line up. Ever. Period. 2nd is also not where you hide a guy in your line up when they have these characteristics. If the only reason Neifi is starting at 2b is because of his defense, why will he be batting 2nd in the order? Sounds to me as though Dusty thinks he can contribute offensively. Do we know hes batting second today? I'd like to see Matty Mur there. And the way hes hitting, maybe Dusty will try him.

I have to drop one of them once Sheets comes back from the DL. Who do you think has the best chance of stepping up into the rotation?

What, pray tell, does Pierre bring other than speed, durability and intangilbles? How about Podsednik? Reyes? Carl Crawford? These guys are not highly valued because of their OBP or even their defense in most cases. They are all overhyped, overpaid (except Reyes) and overrated because of their speed, pure and simple. It is the single most overrated factor in the game. I'll agree that defense is more important than many feel. Speed is overvalued in some cases, but not in general. It's not like guys who can pitch left handed. :lol: It's not speed that makes those guys overvalued. It's the "leadoff hitter" tag or potential. Old schoolers love that. Disrupt the hitter. A good example of that was Harang vs. Murton in the 1st inning yesterday. Harange threw over to 1st several times to make sure Jones wouldn't take 2nd (1st and 3rd at the time). Murton saw quite a few fastballs. Take concentration off the hitter on onto the baserunners and it's more likely the pitcher will miss his spot. Murton takes Harang deep for 3 runs. Big time knock, especially after that Barrett line out DP almost sunk a big inning (bases juiced, no outs). I'll post the links again. I know your anecdote makes sense, but heres a study of a season full of anecdotes that proves otherwise. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/base-stealer-intangibles-part-1/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/base-stealer-intangibles-part-2/ Taking the top 20 base stealers is biasing your sample b/c there are relatively few basestealers able to "create havoc." Using a small sample size is worthless so he took a shortcut. Basically, his numbers are crap. I like the ideas he uses, particularly in taking the change in D into account. He needs to identify the elite basestealers by hard criteria and look at the data over a long period of time, not just the top 20 (too many) over 3 years (too few). Bad data selection. He only used 10 basestealers over 3 years which totaled about 3700 plate appearances. Seems like he only used fairly elite base stealers (Abreu is the worst) and although you'd love to have more data, and I havent run a Z test or anything, but 3700 instances seems like a decent amount to me. Even if you think the sample size is a little skimpy, the results are pretty evident that the affect is basically nothing.

He was already taken in my league which if you want to compete you have to have 3 closers (12 team league so its difficult). Most teams have the closers in waiting on teams with shaky closers so its rough. I did claim Rodney off waivers. Unfortunately, the stupid Tigers will probably give Jones his job back just because they are paying him too much. Rodney is a much better option for them.

If it's a keeper league, most definately. If it's not..tough choice, depends on the rest of your lineup. I have two keeper leagues, but unfortunately this league is not one. I have Freel to take Kent's spot. And my starting pitching is very questionable outside of Santana (Blanton, Clement, Lowe, Bush, Washburn, Madson). I accepted the deal, but I'm starting to have doubts. If Freel was an everyday starter (like he should be) I would probably have no problem doing it. And outside of the 2b position my lineup is V. Martinez, Morneau/Wilkerson, Renteria, Aramis, Alou, Burrell, Lane, Hafner. 16 team league. He'll probably be starting at second full time by May. I wouldnt worry. Which one did you give up, Clement or Lowe? Im guessing Clement.

I'm bad a restraining myself on waiver claims, but if you have a deep league and/or intelligent fantasyers, its tough to get a good steal on waivers. Kinda crazy some one let Hunter go. I'm no fan of his, but hes definitely a steal for free.

Brian McCann isnt getting any love in a lot of leagues either, I'd chose him over Ardoin or Doumin, although Doumit is a fairly close second. But McCann has proved he can perform in the majors so hes a much safer bet.

I vote possibly in a few years but not now. Being labeled the "keeper league golden boy" does nothing but over inflate his value.

Ryan Garko (1B-Indians) Dustin Pedoria (2B-Red Sox)-are they going to try him at SS? Jeremy Sowers (SP-Indians)

What, pray tell, does Pierre bring other than speed, durability and intangilbles? How about Podsednik? Reyes? Carl Crawford? These guys are not highly valued because of their OBP or even their defense in most cases. They are all overhyped, overpaid (except Reyes) and overrated because of their speed, pure and simple. It is the single most overrated factor in the game. I'll agree that defense is more important than many feel. Speed is overvalued in some cases, but not in general. It's not like guys who can pitch left handed. :lol: It's not speed that makes those guys overvalued. It's the "leadoff hitter" tag or potential. Old schoolers love that. Disrupt the hitter. A good example of that was Harang vs. Murton in the 1st inning yesterday. Harange threw over to 1st several times to make sure Jones wouldn't take 2nd (1st and 3rd at the time). Murton saw quite a few fastballs. Take concentration off the hitter on onto the baserunners and it's more likely the pitcher will miss his spot. Murton takes Harang deep for 3 runs. Big time knock, especially after that Barrett line out DP almost sunk a big inning (bases juiced, no outs). I'll post the links again. I know your anecdote makes sense, but heres a study of a season full of anecdotes that proves otherwise. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/base-stealer-intangibles-part-1/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/base-stealer-intangibles-part-2/

1. Furcal has more skills than just speed 2. One stupid deal by one stupid team does not shift an entire market for players. I heard a tidbit a few months ago, I think was a secondhand account of something Beane said, that since all the post-Moneyball hubbabaloo, OBP is starting to get valued properly, and speed is now a skill that is undervalued. It doesn't seem to make sense that he would trade a guy like Bynum if he really believed that. Saying speed is undervalued doesn't necessarily mean it's undervalued by everybody. Perhaps the Rangers (and us, by proxy) overvalued it a bit too much and Beane took advantage of it. Perhaps life is not in a vacuum. Bynum had no place on the team with their glut of outfielders and Scutaro and Perez taking care of middle infield depth. Regardless of the assets that Bynum has, they simply are not enough to put him ahead of any of the As on the ML roster. So, Beane got him a ton of ABs (more than any other A, not on the 25 man roster) and showcased him. Personally, I dont think we gave up anything for Bynum, so I dont think we overvalued anything.

do you know this or are you just repeating someone? Heres some good reading to enlighten you, Monco. IMO their analysis actually overstates the impact by double counting by incorporating hitters and pitchers stats. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/base-stealer-intangibles-part-1/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/base-stealer-intangibles-part-2/

I took mine off the day they signed Jacque Jones and although as the season has gotten closer and closer, I'll admit, I believe more and have been tempted to put it back on, but that just doesn't feel right to me.

Poor Lew Ford...goes from a potentially great pick in last years draft to this.

He looked pretty good today, but some good wood on the ball and made some real nice plays in left. Almost made that great catch, but was just on the wrong foot. Hitting behind sizemore and ahead of peralta and v-mart should help him a lot. Big big year for Michaels.

That was a very prior-esque outing for Cabrera. Dancing around the zone, putting guys on base and giving up a homer. His stuff looked nasty though.

My God....gotta love this board. At least nobody here criticizes too much or jumps to conclusions. He (gasp) might actually miss a start or TWO!! The horror.... I have Jermaine Dye on my team. I think he's going to hit 1.000 all year long....that should really help the overall average. What on earth are you on about? C.C. Sabathia was anchoring my staff, as it is extremely weak after a few trades to make my offense insane... and now I don't even have him. I find it extremely unlikely this doesn't cost him a few starts, based on the way he was reacting to the injury. So this hurts my fantasy team. I don't see how I'm jumping to conclusions. Though I can certainly see it from you. I think what he meant was that it looks like just a muscle strain in his abdomen, at least its not something with his arm. Losing your ace for a game or two is no big deal. Unless you have an extremely deep league there should decent arms to pick up or trade for if you feel the need.

Yeah, I can imagine, im in a 12 team, 25 man league so youve got 57 more drafted players than me. Theres still some quality out there in my league, TWalk, Delmon, Cotchman, Connor Jackson, JJ Hardy, Hanley, Benson, McPhearson and thats just off the top of my head...of course, that list falls off quite a bit before 57.

Would it be worth it for the dodgers to create a package around LaRoche and one of their pitchers? The dodgers have the money to spend and definitely the talent to get it done. And with their offense aging, it would be nice to have a sure thing like cabrera in the lineup for years to come.

I value steals because they are such a limited commodity and have more marginal value than any other counting stat (except of course for 3B in your league). The problem with steals is that usually a player with a lot of steals has no power so you will lose out on HRs and RBIs, but I just cant ignore a category, in my opinion thats just a recipe to not coming in first. Ok, enough of that, onto your team. Doumit, great pick, probably in a 17 team league one of the best values at catcher. I have Shelton too and unfortunately unless you have some funky eligibility rules, you arent going to be able to slot him at catcher this year. Thats the bad news, the good news is that for the last few games hes been slotted 6th and Monroe 8th, so it seems as though hes going to have a good opportunities for runs and rbis. Kent took a huge dive in my draft, I havent been able to find anything about how hes doing this spring, but he did sign an extension, so thats a good indication hes not going to fall off this year. Like Lugo, like him a lot better because of the chance he gets traded (how awesome would he look as the mets 2b and #2 hitter). The TB lineup has a lot of potential so even if he stays there he still will be valuable. Freel, hes got the steals, but Im weary of him the way cinci is treating him. I know hell get his starts, but I just hate the fact that hes not really a starter. But we know the red are pretty moronic. Im big on E. Encarnacion and Lopez, but theres always hope that some one will wake up to the fact that Womack sucks. I have Manny too, I wasnt too happy to get him, but he fell to me with the 11th pick so I had to. I predict a better year than last, but not by a ton. Lane is alright, I'm generally ambivalent to him. Dunn is a great pick because you count BBs, even more valuable than a normal league. Love Granderson, he was taken the pick right before I was going to pick him (but I ended up taking Gomes, who is probably better anyway). Hes going to provide you power and stolen bases and his most valuable asset in your league is the fact that he is a threat to get 15 triples! In your league 15 triples is the equivalent to 80 steals or 70 homeruns. He will most likely end up single handedly with more triples than the majority of the teams in your league. This is probably your best pick and no one in your league realizes. The upside on Kinsler, Young and Dallas is obviously huge. I have no clue what the drays are going to do with their OF situation when rocco comes back and if huff continues to stink it up at 3rd, that would seemingly give them 765787987 outfielders and its a safe assumption that they guaranteed Young would get called up in the first half of the season because he didnt put up a stink when they optioned him down, unlike last year. I'm very scared about Pedro. He was amazing last year, and will have a great offense, but his health just scares me. Duke is struggling in spring, and yes its just spring, but it still scares me. Hes got a big upside, which makes him a fine #3 in your sized league but especially with Pedros risk I'd try to solidify your pitching. I dont follow Cain a lot but I think hes like Duke but safer. I have Heilman as well and I dont see how they can keep him out of the rotation for long, he will be a stud once he gets the chance. Benson is a super duper sleeper. I hope you drafted him late, he wasnt even drafted in my league. From what I've heard Mazzone COMPLETELY overhauled everything Benson does, which is very promising because everythign Benson has done has resulted in him being a blah pitcher. New grip, new motion, new arm slot, new everything. And with Mazzone calling his pitches he will get the max value out of him. I would sit Benson the first few starts, but as soon as he has a good game, put him in. On the negative side hes going through a divorce, but on the plus side hes divorcing Anna Benson, who is a mad pyscho lady and has to cause him headaches, regardless of how hot she is. Like Gonzalez a lot, like burgos, hopefully he doesnt stink otherwise they may hand it over to macdougal when he comes back, but even if that happens the will probably get the job back at sometime (most likely macdougal gets traded anyway). Cordero is overrated, but is definitely a quality closer and is one of the more sure things. Im not that high on Bowyer, his problem was he walked too many people, and he hasnt shown anything to change that. He could eventually get the job, but Im not so confident in him. If Fernando Rodney is available, pick him up instead. Overall, I'd say you are in a good spot. Your pitching is high risk, but thats not a bad strategy in this years draft because pitching is deep. If some one faulters you can find an adequate replacement. Im predicting big years from Lackey and Escobar.

He does have quite a bit of junk in his trunk.

It looked like he was grabbing his right rib cage, which is quite an odd injury for a lefty.