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nilodnayr

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Everything posted by nilodnayr

  1. nilodnayr
    Not nearly what Reggie did this year (.886 OPS) and not quite what he did himself last year (.795 OPS). Maybe a .780 OPS? And yes, I realize that's above his career average, but I still think it's realistic. I'd optimisticly expect his 2000/2002/2003 numbers in the mid 700s, better than his 2001/2004 numbers at 700, but to expect him to get near his 795 last year is a bit too unrealistic to me. Last year he had two really good months, but played like himself the rest of the time.
  2. nilodnayr
    I just don't see how signing Estes upgrades anything. I took that as sarcasm.
  3. nilodnayr
    And if you exclude one game against detroit, pre injury his ERA was .95 and his whip was .93. However, stamina and injuries are a big concern. After the injury he only went 7 innings twice in 16 starts and left the game before the 6th because of pitch counts 6 times. Like Clement he has flashes (or something longer than a flash) of brilliance, mixed in with mediocrity and implosion games. Thats what keeps him from being a top of the rotation guy.
  4. nilodnayr
    Encarnacion is nine years younger. While age isn't everything, Reggie will not continue to produce at a high level.... If he does, I'd venture to say that injuries will hamer himm to the point where it diminishes his production (like Larry Walker -- good numbers, but limited at-bats). And exactly what level do you expect Encarnacion to produce at?
  5. nilodnayr
    I officially rescind my statement. And wow!
  6. nilodnayr
    He can't, and I'm one of his biggest fans. Well, okay, maybe he can be a marginal 2. He's got no shot at being a 1. I don't know his stuff, but he certainly was pitching like a 1 before he got hurt last year. I agree, I love Bedard, but his ceiling is a 2, no way he becomes a 1. Overwhelming odds have him at a good three.
  7. nilodnayr
    Show me the last pitcher who had a mediocre season and won 20 games. Pitching very well is a pre-req for winning 20 games. Russ Ortiz in 2003. Damnit, ok show me the last one before him.
  8. nilodnayr
    Show me the last pitcher who had a mediocre season and won 20 games. Pitching very well is a pre-req for winning 20 games.
  9. nilodnayr
    I agree and think that all Prior needs to do is avoid injury to do that. If he makes 30+ starts, he should contend for the NL Cy Young, along with Zambrano. p.s.- I understand that staying healthy and getting run support are both big ifs for these fellas to compete for a Cy. Just curious.....what if he stays healthy and has an average season? Say 11-12 wins.....not spectacular. Then what? Is it because he still hasnt overcome injuries? Or...because of Dusty....or? I guess I'm asking if there would be a circumstance where Cub fans might come to the conclusion that he was not going to be the dominant pitcher we all hoped for? That maybe big league hitters can hit him? If hes healthy and has 11 or 12 wins its because hendry has failed to put an offense together than can produce and Dusty is batting low OBP guys at the top of the order. Frankly, I dont care how many wins he has, he doesn't have the majority of control over whether or not he gets the win.
  10. nilodnayr
    A grammar, factual, and predictive error. The holy trinity of crappy writing. If Cedeno gets over 450 ABs, I think we can outproduce the ss numbers from last year which were 274/307/369. I have no problem whatsoever with that statement. That's a mighty big "if." I wouldn't imagine that Cedeno would get close to 450 ABs unless he plays second with Neifi getting the full-time job at short. And I wouldn't expect Neifi to repeat his bad numbers at the plate. Something closer to the even worse numbers that he posted over the previous few seasons. Well according to Hendry this morning, Cedeno will be the starter. If Cedenos name has come up in every trade scenario since July and hes still on our team, that means they are not keeping him to be a backup. If Cedeno gets 2/3rds of the ABs and Neifi returns to his 2004/2003 numbers, then Ronny needs to hit 284/319/380 to be an improvement over all cubs shortstops in 2005. ZiPS projects him at 287/332/412.
  11. nilodnayr
    Ok, well I came up with a better three team swap... Trade Patterson to the Blue Jays for Hillenbrand Trade Prior, Hillenbrand, Dope, Welly, Marmol, Piggy to the Yanks for ARod and half of his deferred payments.
  12. nilodnayr
    A grammar, factual, and predictive error. The holy trinity of crappy writing. If Cedeno gets over 450 ABs, I think we can outproduce the ss numbers from last year which were 274/307/369. I have no problem whatsoever with that statement.
  13. nilodnayr
    I am pretty sure Hinske is gone (I think they are hoping he just dosen't show up for ST) with Hildenbrand/Koskie/Glaus manning 1B/3B/DH...oops forgot about Overbay..my guess is that H'band would be next to go. Holy cow that's quite a log jam. 1Bs: Overbay, Hinske and Hillenbrand 3Bs: Koskie, Glaus They just signed Koskie last year. Somebody is getting spun off for more pitching. Riccardi is going for it this year. I guess he smells blood with the Red Sox being weakend and the Yanks aging. well they have the DH too
  14. nilodnayr
    I'm just confused why toronto didnt non-tender hillenbrand?
  15. nilodnayr
    If Hendry is so dead set on getting rid of Prior, then they should deal him to Boston for Manny and Arroyo. But having said that, I think whoever has Hendry's cell phone service should shut off his phone for a couple weeks, and cancel his email, too. Make him unreachable. Keep him away from phones, if he's going to shop Prior. Maybe he is trying to Dusty Proof the team, but I just cannot believe he'd weaken the biggest strength on the team just because he's afraid Baker won't play Cedeno AND Murton. If this was such a problem, then why be an idiot and sign Perez, just to end up having to deal your 24 year old ace starter because your manager is bloody stupid? If he's panicking because he hasn't really improved the offense, then why weaken the strength you have left to do so? It doesn't make sense. There's no rational reason to be shopping Prior for anything less than a top 5 player in baseball. Maybe Hendry can spin his magic and get BOTH Manny and Tejada.........Hmmm? Hmm, if only there was a way.... http://www.northsidebaseball.com/PremiumForum/viewtopic.php?t=27617&start=0
  16. nilodnayr
    Hillenbrand too. no, Q101 says hes on the cubs and is part of the prior/tejada deal :D
  17. nilodnayr
    However, baseball people also pay attention to stats like runs scored (cough Harold Reynolds cough), which will be much higher hitting second in the stl lineup than playing in colorado.
  18. nilodnayr
    No way, the shuffle rocks...today they were doing top 100 songs of 1997
  19. nilodnayr
    I just heard on Q101 that the cubs were thinking about trading Prior and Shea Hillenbrand for Miggy. Did I miss something?
  20. nilodnayr
    Of course Dusty DID play him there last year (albeit for 1 inning)
  21. nilodnayr
    I think its difficult to quantify on a gamelog basis how many Dlee won for us single handedly last year. Hopefully he wont have to do that next year but those who expect the same impact from first base in 2006 compared to 2005 are kidding themselves.
  22. nilodnayr
    no thanks. Arod would be a difference make at SS. Arod in 2005: 321/421/610 Tejada in 2005: 304/349/515 Not even close! And to think, Arod is younger than Tejada. If you could get Arod (and he's willing to play SS) for Prior and another player...I'd jump at that deal. And to get specific about AROD's contract, this is how much he is owed by the yanks from here on out 06: 10.43 07: 12.43 08: 12.43 09: 12.43 10: 12.43 11: 4.88 12: 4.88 13: 4.88 14: 4.88 15: 4.88 16: 4.88 17: 4.88 18: 4.88 19: 4.88 20: 4.88 11-20 are deferred payments, no longer under contract. Deferred payments were originally to be paid at 3% interest but were later reduced to an undisclosed rate, I assumed 2%. In my opinion thats not a ton of cash at all, infact ignoring the deferred payments Prior will most likely only be paid slightly less money through 2010 than Arod. And by 2011 under normal inflation Arod's deferral payments should comprise about 4% of the cubs salary, by 2020, even less. Plus if you are to resign Prior youd have to lock him up into his downhill years.
  23. nilodnayr
    Or ARod
  24. nilodnayr
    The fact that he wants to trade Walker, signed JJ, Pierre, Neifi, and wasted money on middle relievers shows how up until this point he has shown no desperation whatsoever to improve the offense. And I think a back pocket is no place to sotre a top quality pitcher, I mean players complain about the conditions of the clubhouses at wrigley, but come on, thats downright cruel and unusual punishment.
  25. nilodnayr
    You can't be serious that you'd take Jeter but not Arod? :shock: Jeter is a nice player, but Arod is better by a large margin. FYI the difference between ARod and Jeter last year was the same difference between ARam and Vinny Castilla.
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