nilodnayr

Izturis for Choo please. Unfortunately, serviceable second basemen are quite easy to come by via free agency this offseason. Belliard, Kennedy, Counsel, DeRosa, Durham, Loretta are all significantly better than Izturis and will cost about the same $.

If he hits .260 is like saying if Murton hits 50 HRs it will be a monster season. Dunn has only hit .260 once as a full-time player. Dunn for Jones - great. Dunn for Jones plus a pitching prospect - maybe. Dunn for Hill or Prior - no way. No its not, Dunn has hit 260 in his career, Murton has not hit 17 HRs in a season, let alone 50. Don't be ridiculous.

That trade makes V. Zambrano for Kazmir look pretty fair. Video games won't even let you make that trade. Will the reds go with an OF of Denorfia, Freel, and Griffey? I would assume they would want Murton back in the trade, which I would be fine with. Either that or a 3 way trade to send and Murton package for pitching and pitching to the reds.

While his average may have slipped, he still had a very respectable 365 OBP. The only Cubs who had a higher OBP than that were Theriot in his limited AB's and Lee and Barrett. Murton matched him in this area. His low BA does not affect his ability to get on base. With that 365 OBP, he produced a 490 SLG, his lowest in three years. That SLG combined with his OBP gave him a 855 OPS. Only three Cubs were better, Theriot (who won't repeat these numbers over a full season), Ramirez, and Barrett. Looking at only BA as a metric for Dunn is asinine. He's still extremely productive. Furthermore, he's only 26, there is time for him to improve his game. His adventures in the field are overplayed. The clutch argument against Dunn is a joke. With a man on third, with less than two outs, Dunn has a 355 OBP. In close and late situations, he has a 389 OBP. With runners in scoring position with two outs, he has a 410 OBP. In a line-up where he could be sandwitched with two good hitters as he could in Chicago, Dunn would be a great asset. With bases loaded, he batting 273, his OBP was a poor 214, but in those situations he slugs 636. Dunn would be a huge upgrade for this team. I think the argument can be made that in those type of situations, he is not driving the runs home. I would think that is one instance where his Batting average would matter. He is a run producer, those are situations where he needs to HIT, not walk. Sure the walk helps and the OBP is great, but it isn't bringing the run home. Hitting .094 with a runner at third and less than two outs is atrocious, regardless of his OBP. I'm for getting Dunn despite this, but I don't think he is worth what it will take. I'd rather have him get on base, not make outs and allow for a better chance for an even BIGGER inning, rather than hitting sac flies. In out lineup he'd be hitting ahead of Ramirez and Barrett. I'd rather Ramirez come up with one out and a man on first and third than with two outs and none on with a run in. But hey, thats just me, I like to score lots of runs.

I'm doing mine in chronological order 1. Church, Kearns, Vidro 2. Matsuzaka (Zito is plan B) 3. Dunn (for a package centering around murton) I dont think 3 will be necessary but is a (very) nice to have. Part of the point of getting Kearns is for Dunn, if not this year then next when hes a FA.

I dont think the yanks will mind picking up any of the 15M or so they are paying him. They will have a ton of money come off the books this offseason and would rather get quality talent in return. And whoever said they would be interested in Jones, I would counter that they would just prefer to use Melky

It's not that they're the best, it's that they tend to get good results for the money. Having the best would be too expensive for them. They are going to always finish slightly behind the Yanks and the BoSox, but at a very small fraction of the cost.

But as you stated, any team that can pry Cabrera away might as well keep him for themselves. Unless of course that team already has an entrenched 3B.

I don't see the Cards trading for ARod for the reason you mention--the 4 FA pitchers---but also they STILL have to address who is going to replace Edmonds and to a certained degree Encarnacion. Are they going to re-sign Belliard for 2nd base, or did they look for another option. And what about the catcher? The Cards is no longer a dangerous enough of an offense--excluding Rolen/Pujols---to hide an offensive liability in Molina (regardless of the "All-Star status" Molina seems to reach in McCarver's eyes.) The Cards have too many holes to fill, and their budget ain't nearly as flexible as the Cubs. I think the Cubs are going to get ARod, but it may take till December/January before it plays out. The cubs are really the only fit for ARod so I'll bite and say we trade ARAM for him. Move him to short and then pick up the unappreciated Edwin Encarnacion from the Reds. Thirdbase is a weak position this year, so it'll be tough to replace ARAM. Of course we could keep Arod at third, but thats just silly.

So if it took Nolasco, Mitre, and Pinto for one year of Pierre, its going to cost the Angels, Dbacks, and Dodgers farm systems to get Cabrera. Couldn't you let me be delusional for just a little while? I felt 58 minutes was more than generous :D Seriously though, no matter how much they are hating on AROD in NY, dont you think they would blow up if they didnt get a significantly good ML product? If ARAM and Z are off the table, I can't see Cashman staying on the phone. I dont even think a package around Prior will do it.

No it doesn't. A short series doesn't mean anything. Before the Yankees series that great staff were routed by the Royals in three games. You're missing the point. The Yank-mes line-up was supposed to be this huge, unstoppable force, well, how'd that go for them? What stopped this unstoppable force? Great pitching. The Tigers had it, the Yanks, didn't. Simple. Did you know that Babe Ruth made outs in over half the times he went to the plate? Yes, and... You're missing the point. Even the huge, unstoppable force that was Babe Ruth made outs sometimes. Sometimes even to mediocre pitchers. Its a short series, not to beat a dead horse but "anything can happen", its a small sample size. IMO hitting and pitching are equally important. Since after all, the game is all about scoring more runs than you prevent.

Especially when his alternatives are Matsui and others. Its not like hes batting ronny cedeno in the middle or the order over AROD.

So if it took Nolasco, Mitre, and Pinto for one year of Pierre, its going to cost the Angels, Dbacks, and Dodgers farm systems to get Cabrera.

Based on a Chris Matthews interview I saw with Torre, theres about a 99.9% chance hes going to retire.

He told Loria to quiet down and let him handle the umpires. Good for him. If you could point to one signle shred of evidence to support he is a control freak you'd have a much stronger argument in that regard. Again, it won't upset me at all if he isn't hired, but he is a viable option. Didn't he institute the yankees hygeine rule on the Marlins? It doesnt get more control freak than that. With an entire team of kids, I don't really think being a control freak is that bad of an idea. Ohh, I completely agree. I was just pointing out a "single shred of evidence to support that he is a control freak". I think Girardi is the perfect manager for a team of very young players (like the Marlins) or a very disciplined team (like the Yanks or the Angels). It may just be closed mindedness on my part, but I can't see him succeed on a team like the cubs.

He told Loria to quiet down and let him handle the umpires. Good for him. If you could point to one signle shred of evidence to support he is a control freak you'd have a much stronger argument in that regard. Again, it won't upset me at all if he isn't hired, but he is a viable option. Didn't he institute the yankees hygeine rule on the Marlins? It doesnt get more control freak than that.

No it doesn't. A short series doesn't mean anything. Before the Yankees series that great staff were routed by the Royals in three games. You're missing the point. The Yank-mes line-up was supposed to be this huge, unstoppable force, well, how'd that go for them? What stopped this unstoppable force? Great pitching. The Tigers had it, the Yanks, didn't. Simple. Did you know that Babe Ruth made outs in over half the times he went to the plate?

first off, i don't know why you wouldn't want wood back at a reasonable, incentive-laden deal. it's a virtual no risk/high reward situation. i'm all for those. i agree with adding zito, but there were two train wrecks on this team last season, pitching and offense. pitching is much more important than offense, so an appropriate amount more should be spent on it. I think starting pitching and offense are equally important and both need to improve to put us in a position to make the playoffs (of course once we get there pitching is more important). However, I think pitching is more difficult to acquire through trade. If I am making a list of starting pitchers, there are only 3 elite. Mussina is old and had an average 04 and 05 and was lucky in 06 (and average in the second half). Schmidt has the talent and can perform, but we just can't have another injured pitcher. Matsuzaka is probably the best, but a risk. Plus, I don't think we have a chance to get him. However, the overseas marketing opportunities have to have McDonough drooling. Zito is the safest bet. Hes a known commodity, easy thrower, lower injury risk, and a lefty. Pretty much everything Hendry is looking for. I would turn to the trading market to improve the offense. Getting rid of contracts such as Jones, Izturis, Rusch, Dempster allows you significant spending room to also improve the offense. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, but I think the Nationals could be one stop shopping to solve our offensive problems.

I disagree. A hitter will play in 140-160 games. A pitcher will impact about 35. You go with the hitter. As far as our rotation goes, keep in mind Mark Prior will likely be back and closer to his previous form than he was this year. Zambrano, Prior and Hill in no particular order is pretty decent. Finding 2 more starters shouldn't be that hard. Actually, if you think about it, they are about the same by some real quick math using the following assumptions: Influence on the outcome of a game: Offense:40% Defense:10% Starters:40% Relievers:10% For the purposes of the analysis I am going to ignore relievers and defense since we are probably talking about a corner OF, who accounts for very little of that 10% of defense's influence. A starter pitches once out of every 5 games so his value is 20% * 40%. Order in the lineup:Influence on offense (NL) 1:14% 2:14% 3:20% 4:20% 5:14% 6:8% 7:6% 8:3% 9:1% So, lets say we bring in a #3 or #4 hitter who plays every single game and is never replaced in the late innings. His value is 40% * 20%, or exactly the same as a starting pitcher. Of course this is all based on these assumptions, which can be agrued and most likely backed up statistically, but probably aren't too far off from what I've said here. So, use this more directionally. And that direction shows that a starting pitcher is about as important to the outcome of a season as a starting pitcher.

I would have to think Girardi would be ahead of Lou in the wish list. But if the organization fires Torre, then obviously they don't think like me. The only reason I could think to fire Torre instead of letting him leave whenever he wants is that right now there is a manager on the market that the Yanks desperately want and if that manager is picked up by another team and Torre retires in a year or two they wouldn't be able to get him.

In 2001, when the Mariners won a league record 116 games, Piniella was without Griffey (traded to Cincy in the winter of '99), ARod (signed with Texas the winter of 2000), and Johnson (signed in Arizona in '99). He did have Edgar and a washed up Jay Buhner (played in 19 games that season). I'm not a Piniella fan, but lets make sure the facts are straight. He managed one of the best regular season teams of all time and didn't have the big weapons any more. I was clearly talking about the late 90's team. You want to talk 2001, lets do that. We have nowhere near the talent of that team either. His original point was that Piniella has proven he can win with a mix of vets and youth. The obvious point of my sarcastic comment was only when he has great players. In reality anyone is going to win with those teams. If we assemble a team that has the same level of talent as the Griffey, Unit, A-Rod, Buhner, Martinez Mariners or the Ichiro, Edgar, (Juiced up) Boone, Garcia/Moyer/Sele 2001 Mariners we will win if anyone manages, Piniella and Dusty Baker included. In 2001 Ichiro hit .350/.381/.457 Boone hit .331/.372/.578 Edgar hit .306/.423/..543 Olerud had an OBP over .400 Cameron added 25 HR's 3 starters went over 200 IP with sub 4 ERA's in the AL in the "juiced ball era." The Bullpen was one of the best in baseball. How's that for facts? Does anyone think Sweet Lou was the reason why they won 116 games? I don't. I love how when teams win managers are genuises and when they lose they are worthless. MLB managers for the most part are interchangable. Their job is to manage a bullpen and to know how to fill out a lineup card. Amazingly some of them can't do that. If you give any manager great talent, he will win. If you give any manager poor talent, he will lose. Jim Leyland is a sub .500 career manager (another fact), yet this season he is the second coming. Why? Because he has a really talented team. So the bottom line is this: Can Piniella win if we give him a really talented team? Sure. Is he going to be the reason why they win? No way. Do we have a really talented team? Absolutly not. So do I want to spend big money on Piniella who has a reputation of working pitchers like Dusty, has freely admitted on Fox Broadcasts to not being a fan of OBP and not knowing what WHIP is? Heck no! I completely agree, we just all over anyone who measures a pitchers results by wins, why are we letting people who measure a managers results by wins get a free pass? At least pitchers have around 40% control, a manager probably as 1/10th of that. All we ask of a manager is to put the team in a position to win. A manager that bats Neifi and Macias at the top of the lineup does not do that, regardless of how many games he won previously with Bonds and Kent.

It's a shame we have to waste that great stat by poor position play. Our guys are above league average in "catching the ball." We were sixth in the majors in defensive efficiency (the percentage of balls put in play that were turned into outs) It's just all those damn walks we give up. It's going to drive me crazy that Dusty never figured it out. He commented on how the walks were hurting us, but he never made the connection that if we would be the ones taking the walks we could hurt other teams. I mean, really, how thick can the man be? Dusty believed that the responsibility of a walk was completely on the pitcher, that the hitter had no control whatsoever if he would walk or not. I know, its ridiculous, but its true.

Thank God Hampton turned down the $105M the cubs offered him.

Ehh, Crawford is a fantasy stud, but in reality hes Matt Murton who can steal. Hes not going to be worth what the DRays will be asking and some one is going to offer an arm and a leg for him. Some one like Ryan Church would cost a ton less and will likely offensively (not on the basepaths) put up similar numbers. Over the past two years in 364 ML ABs hes put up about 283/359/490. Plus hes a lefty. He'd fit perfectly in CF and in the second slot. And somehow hes behind Nook Logan on the depth chart. This would actually be only a part of my plunder of the Nats. Ideally, I would try for a Church, Kearns, Vidro for Jones, Dempster, Izturis, Marshall. Or something along those lines. I know Bowden wants starting pitching, corner OF, and relivers (and probably in that order). Plus he can't resist a guy who can "cath the ball". Kearns is supremely unhappy there. Vidro is on his way out with Bowden wanting to trade him and move Lopez to second to make room for the venerable Christian Guzman. Vidro has fallen off, mostly in power, but if you look at his splits much of that comes from RFK. He still could be quite useful to even out the deal $wise. Theriot essentially is a Loretta for 400K, with the ability to play quality short. Ronny backs up short, Fontenot 2b, Moore the corner IF, Pagan and lefty back up the OF, Soto backs up Barrett. In terms of pitching, unfortunately this is where we are going to have to spend a decent chunk. Given the recent and current health issues, we need to sign a to of the order "safe" bet to stay healthy. So sorry Schmidt, Zito and his smooth delivery is the only one that meets that qualification. Plus, he could be a good mentor to Hill. We can be a bit more risky with the second rotation filler. I would shoot for some one we wont have to give the standard 3/21 contract to. Some one like Wolf, Weaver, Woody (Williams), or Lidle. Resigning Miller wouldn't be a bad idea, but it all depends on how he continues to rehab in the offseason. My dream (if all of the above isnt just a dream) cherry on top is a Murton and whomever for Dunn trade. However, I don't think the offseason is a good time for the trade because we would obviously have to throw in some quality pitching and at this point we have no clue whos going to be healthy and who will be progressing in the minors. Im guessing Murton, Veal, and another non-Paw high end pitcher (God, do we even have any of those anymore)? I calc this out at about 95M, which is right where we started in 06. Including uping ARAM and Z significantly Theriot-SS Church-CF Lee-1b ARAM-3B Kearns-RF Barrett-C Murton-LF Vidro-2b Zambrano Zito Prior Hill Wolf/Weaver/Williams/Miller/Lidle In the stable (Guzman, Marmol, Ryu, Mateo) Howry Wood Wuertz Eyre Ohman Novoa/Aardsma Soto Moore Fontenot Cedeno Pagan lefty OF

True, but moving from a better league to a worse league should mean that stats would remain mostly the same from last year if he were to go to an NL team. The difference in leagues isn't nearly that great. Wells is a good player, he'll likely put up an .800+ OPS for the next few seasons, but isn't likely to consistently approach .900 like he has this year. I agree, basically he would be a rent-a-player, and we all know how well that works out for us in CF this year. It would be a typical short sighted buy high move, which would have been fine in 2004, but this team is not one player away from being a contender.